2017 rocky mount & twin counties economic outlook

Presented by Kenneth Hunter, MPASmall Business Committee

Presented ByKenneth Hunter, MPA

January 31, 2017

Sources for Information

Special Thank You!

Overview – Key Themes

The Metrics of Optimism

Pushing Beyond “New Normal”

Rocky Mount’s Resurgence

Predictions

The Metrics of Optimism

The National Picture

2016 Q4(Annualized)

$16.805T

The National Picture

2016 Q4(Annual Growth)

+1.9%

The National Picture

2016 Q4(Annualized)

$51,823/capita (+1.2%)

Inflation – CPI

Inflation - CPI

December 2016All Items: +2.1%

Less Food & Energy: +2.2%

Inflation - PPI

December 2016+2.6%

Energy – Crude Oil

1-Month: Little Change12-Month: +$8 (+18%)

Energy – Natural Gas

1-Month: -$0.15 (-4%) 12-Month: -$0.20 (-6%)

Energy – Gasoline

US Average1-Month: Unchanged

12-Month: +$0.50 (+27%)

Energy – Electricity

Market Momentum Continues

Market Momentum Continues

1-Year Change: +18%

Strong Across Sectors

1-Year Change: +18%

Risk Muted, Volatility Not a Concern

1-Year Change: +18%

Treasuries Perking Up?

1-Year Change: +18%

Industrial Activity Stable (and Looking Up?)

1-Year Change: +18%

Business Inventories Remain High

1-Year Change: +18%

Export Growth Subsiding

1-Year Change: +18%

Trade Deficit Stable

1-Year Change: +18%

Pushing Beyond “New Normal”

1.8 Million More Employed in 2016

1-Year Change: +18%

Many Opportunities Available, Nationally

1-Year Change: +18%

Wage “Recovery” Finally a Reality

1-Year Change: +18%

Still Too Many Not Working

1-Year Change: +18%

New Home Sales Up for 2016, but Interest Rates…

1-Year Change: +18%

Existing Home Sales Hurt by Low Inventories

1-Year Change: +18%

Starts Still Favor Multi-Family

Price Recovery in Hot Markets

Appreciation Once Again Strong

Rocky Mount’s Resurgence

Local Housing is Growing

Rocky Mount MLS 2013 2014 2015 2016 1-Year Change 3-Year ChangeNew Listings 1,641 1,571 1,566 1,452 -7.3% -11.5%Average List 129,493$ 134,621$ 131,595$ 137,925$ 4.8% 6.5%Total Sold 865 868 962 1,010 5.0% 16.8%Average Sold Price 107,416$ 112,117$ 114,613$ 118,305$ 3.2% 10.1%Average Days on Market 160 166 168 154 -8.3% -3.8%

Information courtesy Kathy Akers, Boone, Hill, Allen & Ricks Real Estate

Visible Local (Re)development

Local Employment Growth ContinuesRocky Mount MSA Since November '15 Since December '15 Since October '16Change in Labor Force

Edgecombe -188 -0.80% 127 0.55% -205 -0.9%Nash 194 0.44% 779 1.77% 374 0.8%Rocky Mount MSA 6 0.01% 906 1.35% 169 0.2%

Change in EmploymentEdgecombe 117 0.55% 347 1.64% 171 0.8%Nash 462 1.11% 865 2.11% 355 0.9%Rocky Mount MSA 579 0.92% 1212 1.95% 526 0.8%

Rocky Mount City Since November '15 Since December '15 Since October '16Change in Labor Force

In Edgecombe -41 -0.64% 22 0.35% 14 0.2%In Nash 68 0.38% 343 1.94% 111 0.6%Citywide 27 0.11% 365 1.52% 125 0.5%

Change in EmploymentIn Edgecombe 2 0.03% 65 1.12% 47 0.8%In Nash 169 1.02% 330 2.01% 142 0.9%Citywide 171 0.76% 395 1.78% 189 0.8%

Local Employment Growth Continues68

,033

67,1

33

66,2

48

67,1

93

67,6

99

66,3

59

65,9

58

65,4

90

65,7

01

64,4

95 66

,411

67,8

70

68,0

39

62,8

46

62,2

13

60,9

50

61,7

76

62,5

80

61,3

07

61,4

01

60,6

46

60,8

80

59,7

30 61

,735

62,8

99

63,4

25

55K

60K

65K

70K

2015/11 2015/12 2016/1 2016/2 2016/3 2016/4 2016/5 2016/06 2016/07 2016/08 2016/09 2016/10 2016/11

Labor Force & Employment Levels,Rocky Mount MSA, November 2015 to November 2016

Labor Force Employed

24,3

92

24,0

54

23,6

73

24,0

17

24,3

01

23,9

52

23,8

03

23,6

13

23,7

53

23,3

35 23

,927

24,2

94

24,4

19

22,4

37

22,2

13

21,7

25

22,0

20

22,3

01

21,8

49

21,8

84

21,6

15

21,6

93

21,2

90 22

,004

22,4

19

22,6

08

20K

21K

22K

23K

24K

25K

2015/11 2015/12 2016/1 2016/2 2016/3 2016/4 2016/5 2016/06 2016/07 2016/08 2016/09 2016/10 2016/11

Labor Force & Employment Levels,City of Rocky Mount, November 2015 to November 2016

Labor Force Employed

Local Employment Growth Continues

5.9%

4.9%

3.8%

2.8%

1.8%

1.5%

-1.8%

3.1%

2.7%

2.7%

2.8%

2.8%

9.8%

10.3%

-3.5%

2.8%

3.6%

1.5%

0.0%

-4.4%

1.3%

0.9%

-0.6%

0.0%

7.1%

-0.8%

-17.3%

-0.9%

-1.7%

-6.9%

7.8%

-20.6%

-6.0%

-7.6%

-11.6%

-9.7%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Retail Trade

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Manufacturing

Government

Professional and Business Services

Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality Services

Goods Producing

Service-Providing

Private Service Providing

Total Private

Total

Change in Rocky Mount MSA Nonfarm Employment by Sectors, November 2016

1-Month 1-Year Since Jan. '08

How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?24

.0%

20.4

%

13.7

%

12.4

%

12.3

%

10.6

%

9.4%

6.6%

2.9%

2.4%

1.1%

-0.3

%

-1.2

%

-1.4

%

-3.7

%

-7.8

%

13.2

%

9.3%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

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10%

15%

20%

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Change in Employment Since January 2008(as of November 2016)

How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?

8.3%

2.2%

2.1%

2.0%

1.7%

1.6%

1.4%

0.7%

0.4%

0.2%

0.1%

-0.9%

-2.0%

-6.0%

0.7%

1.7%

0.2%

0.3%

1.6%

5.3%

7.4%

0.7%

6.0%

5.0%

2.9%

5.0%

1.9%

0.0%

2.5%

0.0%

-1.5%

-0.5%

-1.1%

1.5%

3.1%

2.6%

2.4%

2.9%

4.8%

10.5%

12.7%

8.6%

-16.3%

34.4%

27.2%

1.3%

-11.9%

14.3%

3.6%

4.8%

3.3%

20.4%

-13.3%

11.9%

13.8%

7.6%

7.1%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

GovernmentRetail Trade

Education and Health ServicesTrade, Transportation, and Utilities

ConstructionAdministrative and Waste Management

Professional and Business ServicesOther ServicesManufacturing

Management of CompaniesFinance and Insurance

Financial ActivitiesInformation

Leisure and Hospitality ServicesGoods ProducingService-Providing

Private Service ProvidingTotal Private

Total

Change in Statewide Employment by Sectors, November 2016

1-Month 1-Year Since Jan. '08

How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?4.1% 3.9%

5.4%

-0.3%

0.5%

3.1%4.2%

-1.5%

4.9%

3.0%

5.8% 5.6%5.0%

-5.2%

-1.4%

3.2%

5.8%

-2.1%

4.1%3.5%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annual Change in Per Capital Personal Income, 2006-2015

Rocky Mount MSA Statewide

How Do We Compare to Rest of NC?5.5%

-3.2%

3.7%

0.1%

-3.7%

-5.2%-4.7%

-3.2%-2.5%

4.8%5.5%

0.1%

2.4%

-3.9%

1.1% 1.2%

-0.3%

1.5%1.9% 2.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annual Change in Real (Chained) GDP, 2006-2015

Rocky Mount MSA Statewide

Predictions

Small Business is Back (Mentally)

Consumers Feel Better

Capital Investment Looks Strong

Leading Indicators Continue Upward

General Outlook is Positive

“Real GDP is expected to increase 1.6% in 2016, before accelerating to 2.2% in 2017. Few economists participating in the survey believe a business cycle peak is imminent.”

North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Connaughton)

1.3%

2.1%

2.7%

1.9% 2.0%

6.8%

5.7% 5.6%

5.0% 5.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Dr. Connaughton's 2017 North Carolina Economic Forecast (Presented December 2016)

GDP Unemployment

North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Walden)

January 2017+0.1% 1-Month Change

+1.0% 12-Month Change

North Carolina’s Outlook (Dr. Walden)

Questions?

Kenneth Hunterkwhunter@gmail.com

Kenneth.Hunter@rockymountnc.gov