2010 update of gcos ip in support of unfccc paul mason and stephan bojinski gcos steering committee...
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2010 update of GCOS IP in
support of UNFCCC Paul Mason and Stephan Bojinski
GCOS Steering CommitteeSeptember 2010
2010 Update of GCOS Implementation Plan
Draft considered at UNFCCC COP15 in Copenhagen
Open community review 13 November 2009 – 31 January 2010
450 comments received
One large expert meeting, 4 task team meetings
Finalized on 31 August 2010 and published
Submitted to UNFCCC for COP16
Document objectives as in 2004 ---but more fully dealt with
Characterise the state of the global climate system and its variability;
Monitor the forcing of the climate system, including both natural and anthropogenic contributions;
Support the attribution of the causes of climate change;
Support the prediction of global climate change;
Enable projection of global climate change information down to regional and local scales; and
Ensure the availability of information important in impact assessment and adaptation, and for the assessment of risk and vulnerability, including the characterisation of extreme events;
What is new and what should the Steering committee consider advice on? ECV list changes and challenges
Impacts, habitats and biodiversity
Additional focus on reference and super site networks
Engagement of national scale adaptation and impact needs
The need for GCOS to work efficiently and fairly with partner programmes and observing systems --- in seeking to progress an IP of increasing scope
Taking forwards a plan with major costs at a time of economic stress
Encouraging long term ecosystem records with monitoring to “climate” standards
GCOS Essential Climate Variables (50 ECVs)
Priority list of variables to be observed systematically Criteria:
Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective) High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research (WCRP), climate change assessments (IPCC)
Domain Essential Climate Variables
Atmospheric(over land,sea andice)
Surface: Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour.
Upper-air:Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties.
Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Other long-lived greenhouse gases, Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors.
Oceanic
Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea Ice, Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton
Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers.
Terrestrial
River discharge, Water use, Groundwater, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost, Ice sheets, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.
Reference and super sites
Some quite specific networks eg GRUAN --- but collocation is key objective
The multi-community challenge of super sites
How to best deal with extra variables that are practical at such sites
A capacity building component
2010 Update of GCOS Implementation Plan: Cost estimates
Moving from 0.6B in 2004 to 2.5B in 2010?
Feedback from network operators gave cost increases c.f. 2004 figures of typically x2
Satellites also have extra missions including the addition of limb sounding missions
The national scale networks were not previously included.
The national scale “adaptation” and impact assessement networks Costs refer to developing countries achieving
developed country network densities
Networks are largely the basic meteorological, hydrological and coastal observations
How can and should GCOS work with partners to seek this very large level of improvement in developing countries
What planning document will and might follow
Satellite supplement update planned for Jan 2011
An in-situ equivalent would show balance eg re network densities and accuracies
Such a publication would need high observing system partner involvement
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