1945 to 2005 the ability of mankind to destroy itself history and hopes for the future richard...
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1945 to 2005 The ability of mankind to destroy
itselfHISTORY AND HOPES FOR THE FUTURE
Richard Wilson Harvard University
talk at: Sandia National Laboratory
March 28th 2005
“Christendom has no catastrophe equal to the Black Death.”
1/3 the world population died “The records of England tell more by their silence than by the shocking
figures that confront us wherever records were kept”
WS Churchill
The terrible chemical weapons that came into prominence in
World War I, at Ypres and elsewhere,
do not compete with Nature. With them, mankind cannot
destroy itself.
But on August 6th 1945 everything changed.
1940 100lbs = 0.05 tons1944 1 ton “blockbusters”1945 10,000 tons1960 5,000,000 tons
Meteorite Impact that destroyed the dinosaurs
5,000,000,000 tons
July 1945 (Alamgordo)Bhagavad Gita via Oppenheimer
“I have become Death; the Destroyer of Worlds”.
Ken Bainbridge: “we’ll all be called sons of bitches now”.
Einstein and SzilardInternational Control
vs. Groves
America must always be strong and ahead
(Contrast: courtesy of Jonathan Schell)
Baruch plan 1946Acheson - Lilienthal
Eisenhower --- Atoms for PeaceDecember 8th 1953
followed byNuclear Non Proliferation Treaty
(NPT)
The CarrotImmediate access to Peaceful
Nuclear technologyand
The StickAgreement to forego nuclear
weapons (and agree to inspections)
Criticism of Atoms for Peace and NPT
“only a social psychologist could hope to explain why the possessors of the most terrible weapons in history should have
sought to spread the necessary industry to produce them in the belief that this would
make the world safer” Beaton
In weapons states, the USSR and USA, Atoms for Peace and NPT
have been a failure. Article IV of the NPT treaty enjoins all states with nuclear weapons to reduce
them. 1987 each had more than 10,000 bombs
ready mounted on delivery vehicles pure fuel in reserve for 20,000 more
1/4 hospital admissions involve nuclear technology.
Particle accelerators and radioactive
sources for therapy. CAT scanners, and Magnetic
Resonance Imaging Radioimmunoassay
Nuclear Research Reactors
95% enriched uranium The US to its “client states” including South Vietnam;
USSR to its “client states”Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Yugoslavia
(No diversion but now not done)BUT
Heavy water reactorsCanada to India
France to Israel (Dimona)Plutonium produced, separated and bombs made
8 countries have nuclear weapons,
5 “weapons states” and 3 non signatories,
India, Israel and Pakistan, not 100 countries considered
likely in 1946
May 1991 defense minister of the Soviet Union, Marshal Yazov.
“The Chernobyl Accident was very important. If a power station not designed to explode
caused that much mess, it showed those of us who did not already know that a nuclear war
would destroy the planet”. Before Chernobyl USSR leaders would not
have been deterred by 200 nuclear weapons.
US leaders in 2005 seem no better.
Selling reprocessing without a civilian need:
1970 Germany proposed to sell to BrazilFrance proposed to sell to PakistanItaly sells fuel fabrication facility to
Iraq (delivered)“Supplier” countries now do not. Iran making isotope separation?
Preemeptive StrikesOSIRAK unsuited for bomb making
Iraq bomb program started after bombing
CIA and MOSSAD did not know details of Iraq program
Before preemption be technically accurate.
Who decides?
InspectionsOpenness is the key
Inquistive; keep eyes open; obtain intelligence from abroad
Before 1991: IAEA inspected only declared facilities
Grossly INADEQUATEDavid Kaye in 1991 did fine.
Genetic Manipulation
MAY enable small pox (or other)to be easily airborne
Harder to control
Maybe destroy mankind before vaccine available
EDUCATION is woefully inadequate
especially educate leaders even inadequate in Russia and USA
start in schoolsvisit countries that might proliferate
Japan, Canada, Sweden, Switzerland, Argentine Taiwan and Brazil started but stopped.
South Africa, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan got rid of them
Why?
Are all nations equal?NPT suggested only two groups:weapons states & non weapons states
We have also: supplier nations“trusted” nations
Can we get USA and RF to cut back to 100 bombs each?What about ABM treaty?
Who does the trusting?Groves
or Einstein- Szilard?
• Biological Weapons
I am worried about an artificial plague, that kills 90% of the human race, not a
biological attack that kills 30,000 or less.
• Is it plausible?
• Can one exclude it?
Biological Weapons
Smaller. MUCH harder to inspect
Use of defectors necessaryInspection has
NEVER been fully triedFirst “experiment” on inspection in 2003 was rudely terminated
Defense may be similar to defense against natural viruses
AIDSLassa Fever
SARS
Maybe we should emphasize this.
Western society changed when antibiotics reduced infectious
diseases
We put human rights ahead of stopping infection
We no longer quarantine
Stopping spread of infectionis analogous to preventing access to atomic bombsBe willing to suggest drastic and unusual measures
Use all clues to infectionInternational rapid action center for diagnosing
symptoms (Dr Lane at UCLA)
Check for disease vectors at airports(rapid thermometry?)
may be more important than stopping knives or gunsPassengers and crew might have face masks
Quarantine may be necessary
Should hospitals in NY test pregnant women for HIV and
insist on AZT treatment to protect the child?
Some human rights groups said no
I said yes
For AIDS there are two conflicting motives
Society wants to reduce the time
a person can infect another
The individual wants his life extended
These are hard issues
AIDS could be eliminated by a small change in human behavior
But that small change has proved very hard to make
“the price of existence is
eternal vigilance”.
Modified from Voltaire
http://phys4.harvard.edu/~wilsonhttp://phys4.harvard.edu/~wilson/publications/ppaper865.html
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