102 may 2011 scenarios of odss and ods substitutes guus velders
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1 02 May 2011
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes
Guus Velders
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Chapter 5: WMO/UNEP Ozone assessment: 2010●A focus on information and options for policymakers:
– Metrics: update of lifetimes, GWPs, ODPs– New scenarios of ODSs from now-2100– Options for policymakers to reductions in ODSs– Impacts of other human activities– Scenarios of HFCs as ODS replacements– World avoided scenarios
●Ozone impacts and climate impacts
●Authors: John Daniel, Guus Velders (CLAa), Olaf Morgenstern, Darin Toohey, Tim Wallington, Donald Wuebbles (LA), and many others
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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World avoided for ozone layer●Montreal Protocol is working
– Large increases in mixing ratios prevented
– Large ozone depletion prevented at poles, mid-latitudes and equator
– Large increase in UV-B radiation prevented
– Increase in adverse effects prevented
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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World avoided for climate●Climate protection by Montreal
Protocol
●Large contribution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions– ODSs potent greenhouse gases– By 2010, decrease in GWP-weighted
emissions of 10 GtCO2-eq/yr
– About 5 times Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012
– Reduction in radiative forcing of 0.23 W/m2 (13% of CO2) by 2010
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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New scenarios constructed●Constraints for 1980-2008:
– Observed mixing ratios 1980-2008– Rate of change + lifetime historic annual emissions– Bank per species for 2008 from TEAP (bottom up)– Production reported to UNEP for 1986-2008
●Assumptions for baseline 2009-2100:– Montreal Protocol limits– HCFCs extrapolation of historic growth in production– Annual release from bank = emission / bank
●Options:– Zero production; emission; bank destruction
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Lifetimes of halocarbons●Revision:
– CFC-114 from 300 to 190 yr– CFC-115 from 1700 to 1020 yr– HFC-23 from 270 to 222 yr– Only small changes to others HFCs and the HCFCs
●Lifetimes affect:– GWPs, ODPs– Emissions derived from observations– Scenarios for future ODS concentrations and ozone layer– Closure of budget (bottom-up vs top-down)
●CFC-11 (lifetime now 45 yr) important for all CFCs●CCl4 uncertainty in budget
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Future mixing ratios ODSs●Current baseline in black● Old (WMO, 2003, 2007) baselines in
red
●CFCs:– All mixing ratios decreasing– Small change cf 2003/2007
●CCl4 (carbon tetrachlorine)– Decreasing– Significant change cf 2003/2007
●CH3CCl3 (methyl chloroform)– Approaching zero
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Future mixing ratios ODSs●HCFCs:
– Increasing use in developing countries
– Increasing mixing ratios– Changes due to accelerated
phase-out of 2007
●Halon 1211 decreasing●Halon 1301 still increasing
(slightly)
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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EESC: Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine
●Metric for ozone layer depletion
●EESC returns to 1980 levels by– 2046 for midlatitude– 2073 for Antarctic
●Zero emissions past 2010– 2033 (13 year earlier than
baseline)
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Comparing ODS scenarios by different metrics
● ODP-emissions - EESC
● GWP-emissions - RF
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Impacts of new options●Success of the Montreal Protocol:
– ODS options have less impact on future ozone than what has already been achieved
– Other compounds and activities become relatively more important:› Climate changes through direct and indirect effects:
CO2, CH4, N2O: temperature, dynamics, chemistry
› Very-short lived species (VSLS)› Geoengineering by injection of sulphur in stratosphere› Emissions from rockets and aviations› Emissions related to biofuels
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Hypothetical cases for accelerating recoveryChange EESC Change ozone Change emissions
GtCO2-eq/yr2010 Bank capture and destructionCFCs 11% 0.13% 7.9Halons 14% 0.15% 0.4HCFCs 4.8% 0.07% 4.9
Production stop after 2010HCFCs 8.8% 0.15% 13.2CH3Br for QPS 6.7% 0.09% 0.002
Emission stop after 2010CCl4 7.6% 0.9
CH3CCl3 0.1% 0.004
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Hypothetical casesChange EESC Change ozone Change emissions
GtCO2-eq/yr2010 Bank capture and destructionCFCs 11% 0.13% 7.9Halons 14% 0.15% 0.4HCFCs 4.8% 0.07% 4.9
Production stop after 2010HCFCs 8.8% 0.15% 13.2CH3Br for QPS 6.7% 0.09% 0.002
Emission stop after 2010CCl4 7.6% 0.9
CH3CCl3 0.1% 0.004
HFCs (more scenario 0% 0% up to 170N2O dependent) 0.35% 130
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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HFCs as ODS replacement●Global phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs
Much of application demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCs Demand for HFCs increasing globally
●New scenarios for HFC use through 2020 or 2050
●HFC growth expected especially in developing countries●HCFC phase-out 2013-2040
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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HFC scenarios: emissions and radiative forcing●Scenarios:
– Non-intervention (BAU)– Intervention through techn.
developments, policy incentives
– Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs by 2050
– HFC emissions can reach 9-19% of CO2 by 2050
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Comparing emissions by different metrics
●Emissions weighted by:– Mass– GWP– ODP
Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes | 02 May 2011
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Thank you for your attention
Montreal Protocol initiated steps
CO2
Isobutane
HFO-1234yf
Mineral wool
…
CFCs HCFCs HFCs ???
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