10 7 13 chart book

Weekly Chart BookOctober 7, 2013

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

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Accuvest Weekly Update

Global Financial Conditions

• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have increased nicely this month, but remain near moderate levels

• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 16.76, up from 15.46 last week

• This week – Oil, EM Equities, and EM Currencies rallied, while Gold, LT-Treasuries, and the MSCI EAFE struggled

Interest Rates and Fixed Income

• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.64%, up from 2.63% last week and 2.60% mid-week

• 10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.85% at the end of Q4 2013

• Investment Grade Bonds sold off 0.1% this week, and are approaching 5 month highs

• High Yield Bonds rallied 0.4% this week, and remain above upward sloping 50 day and 200 day moving averages

Global Equity Markets

• The MSCI All Country World Index dropped 0.1% this week, backing away from all-time highs but still above primary support

• The S&P 500 was flat this week, and has underperform the ACWI, EAFE, and EM Indices over the last 3 months

• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 2.0% this week, after selling off 2.0% last week

• Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary are the best performing Global Sectors year-to-date

• Basic Materials and Utilities are the worst performing Global Sectors year-to-date

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Accuvest Weekly Update

The Economy

• Housing/Real Estate and Labor Market continue to highlight the US Economy

• Average 30 Year Mortgage Rates @ 4.25%, down from 4.28% last week and 4.67% on Sept. 5th

• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (+180k), Factory Orders, PPI, and Retail Sales (0.0%)

Major Currencies

• The Pound, Won, Euro, Krone, and Franc have appreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months

• The Indonesian Rupiah, Indian Rupee, Aussie Dollar, and Turkish Lira have depreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months

• The Mexican Peso (+4.1%) and Chinese Renminbi (+0.4%) are forecasted to appreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of Q1 2014

• The Swiss Franc(-6.5%) and Danish Krone(-6.3%) are forecasted to depreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013

• MXN/USD @ 13.08, strengthening from 13.14 last week

Commodities

• Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a 5 year down trend

• Gold @ $1310/oz., down from $1336/oz. last week

• Crude Oil @ $103.84/barrel, up from $102.87/barrel last week, but below recent highs of $110.53 on Sept 6th

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

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Developed Markets

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Emerging Markets

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US Financial Conditions

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The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

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Global Financial Stress Index

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Citi Macro Risk Index

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US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

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Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

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Investment Grade Bond Prices

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Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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High Yield Bond Prices

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High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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Emerging Market Debt (Local Currency)

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Emerging Market Bond Spreads

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World Equity Indices

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MSCI All Country World Index

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ACWI Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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MSCI ACWI - Price/Earnings and Basic EPS

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S&P 500 Index

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S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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S&P 500 - Price/Earnings and Basic EPS

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MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

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MSCI EAFE Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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MSCI EAFE - Price/Earnings and Basic EPS

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MSCI Emerging Markets Index

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MSCI EM Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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MSCI Emerging Markets - Price/Earnings and Basic EPS

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Equity Risk Premiums by Country

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AGO Constituents – Japan, China, Russia, Germany, Korea, & Austria

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Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

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Last week’s Economic Calendar

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Next week’s Economic Calendar

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Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

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US Economic Surprise Index (Data’s Deviation from Expectations)

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30 Year Mortgage Rates

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Initial Jobless Claims – 4 Week Moving Average

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q1 2014)

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Japanese Yen ¥

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Euro €

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Mexican Peso

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British Pound

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Australian Dollar

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Emerging Market Currencies

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Global Commodity Prices

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Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

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Gold Prices – 5 Years

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Gold Prices – 1 Year

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Gold to Gold Miners Ratio – 1 Year

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Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

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Crude Oil Prices – 1 Year