1 expect the best dan borchert- entomologist usda/aphis/ppq/cphst/peral raleigh, nc

1Expect The Best

Dan Borchert- EntomologistUSDA/APHIS/PPQ/CPHST/PERAL

Raleigh, NC

http://www.nappfast.org

2Expect The Best

NAPPFAST System Overview• Internet-based Pest Prediction System• Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection,

or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate database (~2000 stations in NA)

• Produce geo-referenced output maps• Designed to assist pest

survey detection efforts:

predict when and where

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Modeling- Point to Consider

“ A model is always wrong, but it can help you see the truth”

Dr. Fred Gould William Neal Reynolds Professor

North Carolina State University Entomology Department

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The Purpose of NAPPFAST

• To assist the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) Program determine where and when to survey for invasive pest species

• To provide information on pests (potential distribution etc.) for risk assessment purposes

• To assist APHIS by providing relevant information in Emergency Response situations

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Degree Day Model: Theory

• “Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976)

• Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago

• Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shape

Dev.

Tem

p.

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Multi-function Model

• Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and mathematical equations:

(X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)

Some examples used to date are: temperature exclusions (high and or low lethal temperatures), frost free days, and emergence dates

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Infection Model

• Plant pathologist describe interactions between pathogen, host and environmental conditions as the

disease triangle.

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• Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments

• Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture (Magarey et al. 2005, Yin et al. 1995, Wang and Engel, 1998)

Generic infection model

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NAPPFAST Summary

• NAPPFAST is a flexible easy to use system with the ability to map multiple organisms

• Combines simple models with large amounts of high quality data

• Model Output is exportable (Geo-tiff) for easy incorporation with other types of Geo-referenced data/Spatial analysis

• Development of Global climate data and additional tools/capabilities will improve the system

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NAPPFAST and Spatial Analysis

Dan Borchert- EntomologistUSDA/APHIS/PPQ/CPHST/PERAL

Raleigh, NC

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Terms and Definitions• GIS: Geographic Information System

• an analytic framework for managing and integrating data; solving a problem; or understanding a past, present, or future situation.

• GPS: Global Positioning System• is a worldwide radio-navigation system formed

from a constellation of 24 satellites and their ground stations

• Spatial Analysis:• Area of GIS that utilizes multiple methods, from

simple to complex

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The Real Life Very Hungry Caterpillar

• Light Brown Apple Moth, Epiphyas postvittana• Feeds on: Apple, Citrus, Tomato, Grape, Potato,

Strawberry, Peach, Carrot, Beans, Broccoli, Pears, many forest types (HUNDREDS of hosts)

• Recently detected • Can we make a risk map to assist in

management efforts? • Quickly?

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Counties with Apples Grown

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Counties with Pears Grown

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Counties with Plums Grown

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Counties with Strawberries Grown

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Counties with Citrus Grown

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All Commodities Added

+ +++

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LBAM Host Density

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Are Hosts the Only Answer?

• Do we need to account for pest biology in addition to host?

• How can that be accomplished?

• Biological event modeling such as Degree day or infection

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Five Generations Averaged

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Standardized Global Plant Hardiness Zones

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LBAM Risk Map

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Observed distribution of Kikuyu grass observations (GBIF green points; literature records black diamonds)

Kikuyu Grass

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NAPPFAST Climate Match for Kikuyu Grass

Kikuyu Grass

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Spatial modeling as a PRA Tool

• The information (data) is becoming more readily available in spatial format

• The ability to combine and utilize multiple types of data for decision support and analysis is a rapidly developing technology

• The ability to view data in a spatial context aids in rapid understanding

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Questions?

• Dan Borchert

1730 Varsity Dr. Suite 300

daniel.m.borchert@aphis.usda/gov