1 chapter 15 probabilistic reasoning over time. 2 outline time and uncertaintytime and uncertainty...

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Chapter 15 Chapter 15 Probabilistic Reasoning over TimeProbabilistic Reasoning over Time

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Outline Outline

• Time and UncertaintyTime and Uncertainty

• Inference: Filtering, Prediction, SmoothingInference: Filtering, Prediction, Smoothing

• Hidden Markov modelsHidden Markov models

• Brief Introduction to Kalman FiltersBrief Introduction to Kalman Filters

• Dynamic Bayesian networksDynamic Bayesian networks

• Particle FilteringParticle Filtering

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Time and uncertaintyTime and uncertainty

• The world changes; we need to track and predict it

• Diabetes management vs vehicle diagnosis

• Basic idea: copy state and evidence variables for each time step

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Markov processes (Markov chains)Markov processes (Markov chains)

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ExampleExample

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Inference tasksInference tasks

tt

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FilteringFiltering

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Filtering exampleFiltering example

0

1 1 0 0

1 1 1 1 1

Day 1, U1=true

( ) ( | ) ( )

0.7,0.3 0.5 0.3,0.7 0.5 0.5,0.5

( | ) ( | ) ( ) 0.9,0.2 0.5,0.5

0.45,0.1 0.818,0.182

r

p R p R r p r

p R u p u R p R

Rt P(Ut)

t 0.9

f 0.2

Rt-1 P(Rt)

t 0.7

f 0.3

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Filtering exampleFiltering example

1

2 1 2 1 1 1

2 1 2 2 2 2 1

Day 2, U2=true

( | ) ( | ) ( | )

0.7,0.3 0.818 0.3,0.7 0.182 0.627,0.373

( |, , ) ( | ) ( | ) 0.9,0.2 0.627,0.373

0.565,0.075 0.883,0.117

r

p R u p R r p r u

p R u u p u R p R u

Rt-1 P(Rt)

t 0.7

f 0.3

Rt P(Ut)

t 0.9

f 0.2

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SmoothingSmoothing

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Smoothing exampleSmoothing example

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2 1 2 2 2 2 1(u | R ) ( | ) (| )p( | )

=0.9 1 0.7,0.3 0.2 1 0.3,0.7 0.69,0.41

r

p p u r p r r R

Rt-1 P(Rt)

t 0.7

f 0.3

Rt P(Ut)

t 0.9

f 0.2

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Most likely explanationMost likely explanation

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Viterbi exampleViterbi example

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Hidden Markov modelsHidden Markov models

:

: :

( | ) ( | ) ( | ) ( | )

( | )

1 1 1 1 1 1

1 1

tt t t t t t t tx

t t t

P X e P e X P X x P x e

f P x e

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Country dance algorithmCountry dance algorithm

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Country dance algorithmCountry dance algorithm

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Country dance algorithmCountry dance algorithm

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Country dance algorithmCountry dance algorithm

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Kalman FiltersKalman Filters

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Updating Gaussian distributionsUpdating Gaussian distributions

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Simple 1-D exampleSimple 1-D example

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General Kalman updateGeneral Kalman update

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2-D tracking example: Filtering2-D tracking example: Filtering

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2-D tracking example: smoothing2-D tracking example: smoothing

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Where it breaksWhere it breaks

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Dynamic Bayesian networksDynamic Bayesian networks

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DBNs vs. HMMsDBNs vs. HMMs

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DBNs vs Kalman FiltersDBNs vs Kalman Filters

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Exact inference in DBNsExact inference in DBNs

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Likelihood weighting for DBNsLikelihood weighting for DBNs

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Particle FilteringParticle Filtering

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Particle Filtering contd.Particle Filtering contd.

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Particle ltering performanceParticle ltering performance

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Chapter 15, Sections 1-5 Chapter 15, Sections 1-5 SummarySummary