太阳活动影响梅雨的 一种可能途经 李 崇 银 全国 空间学术会议， 2009 年 10...

太阳活动影响梅雨的一种可能途经

李 崇 银

全国空间学术会议， 2009 年 10 月，南京

Outline

1. Introduction

2. Solar Activity and Stratospheric Circulation

3. AO and Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly

4. AO and Mei-yu in China

5. Conclusion

1. IntroductionLabitzke, Van Loon,

1990)

Temperature

10.7cm irradiancePs

Sunspot cycle and location of the subtropical ridge over eastern Australia (R. E. Thresher,

2002)

太阳活动的影响过程需要很好研究

2. Used data

The 10.7cm solar radiant flux data

ECMWF reanalysis data

Mei-yu data

3. Solar Activity and Circulation Anomalies in Stratosphere

HS= high (strong) solar activity

LS= low (weak) solar activity

According to the 10.7cm solar radio flux，we can get high and low solar active year as follows:

HS: 1958, 59, 78, 79, LS: 1962, 63, 64, 74,

80, 81, 88, 89, 75, 76, 84, 85,

90, 91, 2001 86, 95, 96

The Expression of Solar Activity

Temporal variation of standardized indices of the 10.7cm solar radiant flux in winter

Strong

Weak

There are 11 years respectively for strong and weak

Composite geopotential height anomalies at 10 hPain winter for high and low solar activity

(Pan and Li, 2006)

Composite zonal wind anomalies at 10 hPa in winter for high and low solar activity

(Pan and Li, 2006)

Composite temperature anomalies at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

Composite ozone mass mixing ratio anomalies at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity (Pan and Li, 2006)

Latitude-pressure section of the zonal wind anomalies for high and low solar activity

+

+

-

-

Potential vorticity at 10hPa in winter for high and low solar activity case

Corresponding to strong / weak solar activity, the stratospheric circulation has evident opposite variation, particularly in the mid-high latitude.

4. Relationship betweenthe AO and Stratosphere Circulation Anomaly

AO (Arctic Oscillation) Thompson and Wallace （ 2000 ） found that the SLP field in the high l

atitude has variation out-of-phase to that in the middle latitude and this patt

ern is symmetric longitudinally. It was named the Arctic Oscillation, or the

Northern Annular Mode (NAM).

Correlation between AO index in March and zonal mean geopotential height in February

(a) Correlation between AO index in March and 30hPa height in February

(b) EOF1 of 30hPa height in February （ 57.6% ）

(c) EOF3 of 30hPa height in February （ 9.5% ）

Correl. Coeff. with AO

PC1 PC3

0.35 (95%) 0.33 (95%)

The troposphere AO in March is closely related to the pattern of EOF1 and EOF3 of 30hPa height in February

Corresponding to positive PC1 ， there is downward wave action in （ 30 － 40oN ） from 30hPa to 100hPa.It maybe affect the troposphere circulation

The regression EP flux in February using the PC1

AO与平流层的关系The regression EP flux in February using the PC3

Corresponding to positive PC3 ， there is downward wave action

in （ 60 － 90oN ） from 30hPa to 100hPa.It maybe affect the troposphere circulation

AO index in March has evident correlation with the stratospheric circulation in February. There is downward wave actionfrom the stratosphere and will affect the troposphere circulation in mid-high latitude.

5. Relationship between

the AO and Mei-Yu

Temporal variation of standardized indices of the 10.7cm solar radiant flux in winter

Strong

Weak

There are 11 years respectively for strong and weak

The standard difference summer rainfall in China for strong and weak solar activity year

强、弱太阳活动年 850hPa 风场的差值（图中所显示的是通过 90 ％信度检验的值）

Wavelet analysis for sunspots

Wavelet analysis for Mei-yu in China

A cross wavelet analysis for the sunspots and Mei-yu in China

Correlation coefficients between monthly AO indices and mei-yu precipitation from 1958 to 2002. (* indicates the 95% significance level)

月份相关系数 (AO，梅雨 )

1月 -0.01

2月 0.07

3月 -0.31*

4月 -0.04

5月 -0.16

6月 -0.05

7月 0.03

8月 -0.01

EOF1 of the SLP （ ERA-40 ， 20-90N ） in March （ AO index ）

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-2

0

2meiyuao

AO与梅雨的关系

AO index and Mei-yu index

Negative Correlation

Correlation between the Mei-yu and zonal mean geopotential height in March（ 1958－ 2002）

AO mode

95 ％ (significance)99 ％

Correlation between the Mei-yu and SLP/geopotential height i

n March

SLP

SLP 500hPa

500hPa

The Mei-yu is closely related to the AO mode in March

AO与梅雨的关系

Correlation between the AO index and SLP/geopotential heig

ht in March

The regression circulation in summer using the AO index in March

850-200hPa thickness Zonal mean wind（ 110－ 150E）

Corresponding to positive AO ， there is a cold center in East Asia and downward motion over

the mid-downstream of Yangtze River

The regression 850hPa wind in summer using the AO index (positive) in March

The Mei-yu is clearly related to solar activity in decadal time scale. AO anomaly could cause summer circulation anomalies, which is favourable or unfavourable to the Mei-yu rainfall.

Solar Activity

Stratospheric Circulation Anomaly

AO Anomaly

Mei-yu Anomaly

6. Conclusion --- A Schematic Diagram

Solar Activity High Low

+ -

AOPositive Negative

Mei-yuDecrease Increase

Thank You

太阳活动

地磁场

改变地壳内部磁流体运动

改变地球自转

改变大气角动量

气候变化

直接辐射

对流层大气环流改变

?

紫外线宇宙线

平流层臭氧

云场 SST核幔边界上的地磁能量改变

SLP 500hPa 100hPa

AO与平流层的关系

用 PC1 回归的 3 月对流层高度场

2 月 30hPa 的 PC1 与 3 月对流层的 AO 模态有密切关系

AO与平流层的关系

用 PC3 回归的 3 月对流层高度场

SLP 500hPa 100hPa

2 月 30hPa 的 PC3 与 3 月对流层的 AO 形势有密切关系

Potential Vorticity at 10hPa in Winter for High and Low Solar Activity Case

Solar Activity

Geomagnetic

Magnetic fluidmotion in the Earth.

Rotation of the Earth

Atmospheric angular momentum

Climate Variation

Geomagnetic energy in C-M boundary

Direct radiation

Atmospheric circulationin the troposphere

?

UltravioletCosmic ray

OzoneCloud STA

$$$$$$

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

-0.5

0

0.5

Moving correlation between the AO and Mei-yu

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

-0.5

0

0.5

AO in Mar.

AO in May

Gong indicated the Mei-yu has good correlation to AO in May （ 1900 － 1998 ） .But during (1958 － 2002) ， the Mei-yu has good correlation to AO in March.

We will consider the correlation between the Mei-yu and AO in March 。

（一）AO与梅雨的关系