american society for quality 32nd energy & environmental conference september 18-22, 2005, san...

American Society for Quality32nd Energy & Environmental Conference

September 18-22, 2005, San Antonio, Texas, USA

Energy Efficiency/Conservation – An Imperative to US

BySal Hassanien, PhD, P.E, CEM

Quality Manager&

M. Saied Gouda, ,D.Eng, P.EDirector, EP&S

Energy Partnerships & Services

August 2005 DTE Energy Partnership & Services

2

US Energy Consumption

• In the year 2003, the US energy consumption per day, exceeded 320 billion kWh.

• This is equivalent of the energy in 48.7 million barrels of crude oil per day.

• US burns 380 million U.S. gallons of gasoline per day.

• Roughly half of the total energy consumption goes into transportation.

• US gets its energy from:– 40% crude oil– 23% natural gas– 23% coal– 8 % nuclear– 6% renewable


3

From: DOE/ Energy Information Administration/ Annual Energy Review 2003, page 276

% Of Total Energy Used

0.06%

2.04%

0.54%

0.12%

2.7%

0.24%

0.30%


4

US Energy Imports

• Today US imports– 54% of its crude oil from the Middle East – 60% of its natural gas from Canada

• The amounts and percentages of these imports are predicted to increase to 68% for oil and 74% for gas, to satisfy the increasing energy needs by 2010.

• The price of barrel of crude oil has climbed to > $65/ barrel. The price may climb further due to increased demand, especially from China, India and instability in the Middle East. The predictions are that it will persist above $50/barrel.

• Similarly natural gas prices are expected to rise with the rise of crude.


5

The Rising Oil Prices

• Courtesy of the Economist magazine.

• The price of crude oil on August 11 hit a new record high of $66.15.

• Continuing capacity shortages in US refineries, demand from emerging economies, and instability in the Middle East will raise the price to $ 70/ barrel or more.


6

The Challenges

US is facing serious challenges, these are:• US needs energy to maintain its standard of living.

Currently the needs far exceeds its domestic production?

• Energy demand by emerging economies like India & China will continue to drive the price up.

• US increased reliance on foreign energy imports raises the issue of security of energy supply in the US.

• Fossil fuels emissions are affecting the environment. US produces 6 billion tons of Carbon Dioxide/year.


7

The Environmental Impact of Burning Fossil Fuel

• The US population is less than 4% and it consumes 25% of the total annual fossil fuel consumed in the world. US also generates 20% of all gaseous emissions.

• Fossil power plants similarly produce carbon dioxide, Sox (Sulfur dioxides), Nox (Nitrous oxides) and mercury.

• These emissions have profound impact on environment:– Acid rain by sulfur oxides (Sox)– Smog by nitrogen oxide & Ozone ( Nox)– Ozone thinning– Heavy metal dispersion e.g. mercury, lead – Global warming due to carbon dioxide resulting in

climatic changes

• Coal and Wood or Biomass burning produces the largest emissions to the atmosphere.


8

The Environmental Impact of Burning Fossil Fuel (cont.)

• The UN’s Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), made up of the world’s top climate scientists (including prominent dissenters), concluded that man’s generated greenhouse gases have “contributed substantially to the observed warming over the last 50 years”.

• Research from NASA, US blue ribbon Presidential Panel and a multitude of research centers, around the world, have all concluded that global warming, and the need to prevent more damage to weather systems, are among the most serious and pressing of the Earth's problems.

• “If we don’t reduce greenhouse emissions, there will be grave consequences within the lifetime of today's generation of children.”


9

President Bush Energy Plan

• Signed into law last month.• Provides $11 billion net cost of the tax package plus the

$2 billion direct spending ,over 10 years, mostly as subsidies for oil drilling offshore and on federal lands, and for new coal fired and nuclear power plants.

• Focused on increasing energy supply while doing little to reduce demand, in terms of energy efficiency, it:– Proposes tax credits for hybrid and fuel cell cars (up to

$2300 per vehicle)– It proposes accelerated depreciation for co-generation

projects– Expands energy star product labeling on appliances

• While it provides incentives for the construction of a new generation of nuclear power plants, it doesn't deal with the unresolved long-term problem of nuclear waste.


10

President Bush Energy Plan (cont.)

• The energy plan does not make any significant attempt to reduce the enormous automobile fuel demand that makes this country so dependent on imported oil.

• It does not promote nor improve energy efficiency standards e.g. better gas mileage, better building codes.

• It leaves out the whole question of reducing green house gases. In fact, it relaxes the air emission standards and will result in more greenhouse emissions from burning more fossil fuel.

• It does not provide significant incentives for R&D nor promote the market for, energy efficiency technologies or non polluting energy technologies like wind, solar and bio-fuels.

• It does not lower fuel prices anytime.


11

Energy Efficiency/ Conservation

• With the right drivers ( Increasing public awareness, tax incentives, access to capital and credit, and high energy prices), a nationwide energy efficiency/ conservation program can reduce energy consumption by 25%.

• This saves– equiv of 20.8 barrels of crude

oil/year.– 1.5 billion tons/year of greenhouse

gas emissions– $260B/year of crude imports

assuming a price of $50/barrel • Creates jobs in building and

engineering industries.• Stimulates new technological

development in Energy Efficiency (EE) & alternative energy.


12

Energy Efficiency/ Conservation Cost vs. Savings

Assumptions– 5% reduction in energy

consumption every year for five years.

– $50/ barrel of crude oil– $10B investment in EE

every year for 5 years.– 50% from private sources

and 50% from federal & states.

Financial Predictions

050

100150200250300

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Year

$ (

Bill

ion

) AccumulativeSpending (B $)

AccumulativeSavings (B$)


13

Energy Efficiency - transportation

The economically recoverable crude oil from US parklands and artic national wildlife refuge is estimated to be 4 billion barrels. The plan is to recover it over 20 years. It will stretch US fuel supplies by 200 million barrels/year.

In comparison, making simple energy efficiency changes in transportation can achieve a saving of 340 million barrels of crude oil/year.

Furthermore, this will reduce greenhouse emissions and Nox emitted from motor vehicles by approximately 25%.


14

How to Improve Energy Efficiency in Transportation?

• Increasing average new vehicle fuel economy standards from the present 23 miles/gal to 40 mile/gal will save the equivalent of 11% of the gasoline consumption (about 106 million barrel of crude oil year).

• Adding 10-15% ethanol to gasoline will reduce gasoline consumption by another 10% ( about 96 million barrel of crude oil year).

• Improving vehicle aerodynamics and/or replacing tires with low rolling resistance tires with proper tire pressure can cut fuel consumption by few percentages.


15

How to Improve Energy Efficiency in transportation? (cont.)

• Further reduction by 5-20% of gasoline consumption (i.e. about 48-192 million barrel of crude oil year) is possible If we reduce rush hours and traffic bottlenecks (wasting fuel).

• Reducing mileage traveled by 10-15%. Annual Mileage driven by family is >21,000/year. Telecommuting and internet shopping can reduce this.

• Improving public transportation in cities.

• Bringing back an efficient and speedy railway system.


16

How to Improve Energy Efficiency in Building Industry?

• Improving building codes as it relates to energy efficiency, example building insulation and ventilation.

• Reducing solar gain and heat escape by replacing old windows with newer windows.

• Replacement of heating system with high efficiency gas furnaces.

• Introducing district heating in high density commercial and business buildings.

• Increasing the efficiency of air-conditioning units by 30%.• Use energy management systems to monitor, shutdown

unnecessary loads and optimize energy consumption.• Changing from incandescent lighting to compact

fluorescent lamps will save the equivalent energy of ¼ ton of coal over the lifetime of the lamp (20,000h).


17

How to Improve Energy Efficiency in Industry?

– Recovery of waste energy.

– Improved industrial processes and process control, especially in energy intensive industries like smelting, metal, oil refining.

– High efficiency combustion.

– High efficiency boilers and heat exchangers.

– Eradicating steam and compressed air leaks.

– Energy management systems.

– Improved metering. Non-intrusive temp, pressure, flow and energy measuring, metering devices.


18

Providing Incentive for R&D in Energy Efficiency

• Provide R&D funding for positive energy efficiency technologies such as:

– Energy Storage (batteries and thermal).

– AC/DC converters and invertors.

– Energy management systems that are simple and cheep as a DVD player.

– Energy conversion/ extraction e.g. in power station condensers.

– Higher efficiency appliances, motors and electrical transformer.


19

Providing Financial Incentive for Energy Efficiency

• Provide tax incentives/faster depreciation for retrofitting energy projects.

• Provide low interest capital for energy projects performance contracts.

• Provide funding for massive and persistent media energy awareness/education campaign.

• Provide tax incentives to consumers buying energy efficient appliances e.g. lights, digital energy management systems, solar thermal heating systems, energy efficient HVAC equipment like heat pumps, energy efficient building insulating material and energy efficient windows.


20

Provide Incentive for R&D in Non- polluting Energy Technologies

• Provide R&D funding for non polluting energy sources technologies such as:

– Wind turbines

– Photovoltaic solar technology

– Fuel cells

– Hydrogen

– Geothermal


21

Integrating wind Power into the Energy Mix

• Today, Wind energy (non polluting) is economically competitive in terms of installation and production costs to other traditional sources of energy.

• This is not the case for Photovoltaic Solar (c8) or hydrogen( c40).

• Today , Wind power provides 40% of Denmark’s energy needs.

Energy Cost Comparison

5 5.5 6 6

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

Coal NaturalGas

Wind Nuclear Solar

Energy Source

Cos

t per

kW

h (c

ents

)


22

Provide Incentive for R&D in Energy Technologies

• Provide R&D funding for improving energy technologies such as:

– Combined cycle gas turbines.

– Safer nuclear reactors and nuclear waste disposal.

– Synthetic gas from coal.

– Bio-fuel e.g. gasohol, bio-diesel, methane from waste, high pellets from agricultural waste.

– Distributed energy systems to reduce transmission losses (presently @ 12%).

– Integrated energy systems e.g. co-generation, solar, wind and thermal.


23

Finally

• Energy Efficiency/ Conservation is the best option to satisfy US energy needs for the short term, until other sources of energy become available and economically viable.

• 25% energy savings is achievable with the present technology at cheaper cost than prospecting for or adding new energy sources.

• 25% energy saving will not reduce the US standard of living or comfort.

• It reduces environmental emissions especially greenhouse gases that can cause climatic changes.

• It reduces the US reliance on foreign energy imports and reduces concern with respect to the issue of security of energy supply.

• It reduces the deficit in the trade balance of the US• Energy efficiency products, equipment, materials and retrofitting

will create business, job and export opportunities.


24

References

• CNN Inside Politics, Bush energy plan: Conservation, eased regulations and diversification, May 17, 2005, http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/

• The White House, President George W. Bush, Report of the National Energy Policy, http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy/

• A critique of Bush Energy Plan, May,2005, The National Resource Defense Council

• American Council For Energy Economic. www.aecee.org• Energy information on energy Consumption & energy information

statistics, Department of Energy, www.eia.doe.gov• Transportation energy data, www.cta.ornl,gov/data• Housing facts & figures and plans, National Association for Home

Builders, http://www.nahb.org/• The Economist Magazine, August 13,2005, another oil price record,

http://economist.com/• S.Hassanien, S. Gouda, The Necessity & Viability of Green Energy,

ASQ Conference, Seattle, 2005

THANK YOU

Questions?


26

AuthorsSal Hassanien, PhD, P.Eng, CEM. Presently the Quality Manager of Energy Partnership & Services, DTE. He has Ph.D. Chemical Engineering from Canada. He is Registered Professional Engineer, Certified Energy Manager, ISO900:2000 and ISO 14001 Lead Auditor, and an lecturer on lean manufacturing. .He has 38 plus y experience in management & engineering and quality improvement. He has been the Director & the President of Sustainable Development Technologies Inc. an energy, environment and quality consulting firm.The former Manager of Special Projects, Design Engineering, Nuclear, Ontario Power Generation. He has been a Consultant to: UN Development Plan, UN Global Environmental Fund, Canadian Ministry of Natural Resources & Mining, EEA Egyptian Environmental Authority. An Adjunct Professor at Alexandria University. Sal has published more than a dozen technical papers. He has delivered several seminar and training courses on quality and energy efficiency Can be contacted at 2000 2nd Ave, 126o WCB, Detroit, MI 48226-9881,Tel: 313.235.8280, and Fax: 313.235.9601, email: [email protected]

Saied Gouda, Presently the Director of Energy Partnership & Services, DTE. He has a PhD Mech. Eng, Detroit Univ. and he is a Registered Professional Engineer, Certified Manufacturing Manager, Board Member of Registration & accreditation Board for ISI 14000 (RAB).He has 15-years experience in management & engineering and quality assurance. He was the Director of Quality Engineering assurance for Fermi 2 projects. He is an adjunct Prof. at Lawrence Technical Univ.Can be contacted at 2000 2nd Ave, 126o WCB, Detroit, MI 48226-9881,Tel: 313.235.5251, and Fax: 313.235.9601, email: [email protected]

american society for quality 32nd energy & environmental conference september 18-22, 2005, san...

Documents

us energy imports

us energy consumption

us needs energy

energy demand

energy supply

increasing energy

total energy consumption

foreign energy imports