American Foreign Policy and East

Asia

Spring, 2014

(North)East Asia?

Relationship

Trade Deficit?Rising China?

Energy issues?

Human

Rights?

Relationship

After World War ‖

Bilateral Approach(hub-and-spoke)

The U.S. &

Japan (1951), South Korea(1953),

Nationalist China (1954)

NATO

Why the bilateral approach?

• Relative Size of the Regional Actors• Geographic Characteristics • State-level Factors: Japan’s Characteristics

• Diversity• Institutional Path-dependence

Relationship

China-Taiwan-US

China-Taiwan-US• Current Relationship between China and

Taiwan? Couldn’t be better!

- In February, the first official direct talk since 1949.- A possible summit in November?

- Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (June, 2013)

- Allowing Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan - Direct flight between China and Taiwan

Since Ma, Ying-Jeou became the president in 2008

China-Taiwan-US• Trade: (in hundred million dollars)* Year Total Export to

TaiwanImport fromTaiwan

2007 1245 235 10102008 1292 259 10332009 1062 205 8572010 1454 297 11572011 1600 351 12492012 1690 368 13222013 1972 406 1566

*China’s Taiwan Affairs Office

China-Taiwan-US• People visiting each other’s territory (in ten thousand)*

Year Taiwanese toMainland

Chinese to Taiwan

Total

2007 463 23 4862008 437 28 4652009 448 94 5422010 514 166 6802011 526 184 7102012 534 263 7972013 516 292 808

*China’s Taiwan Affairs Office

China-Taiwan-US

• 1950: During Korean War, Deployment of The Seventh Fleet • 1954-55/1958: The First and Second Taiwan Strait Crisis • 1979: U.S. Recognition of The PRC & The Taiwan Relations Act• 1995-1996: The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis• 2005: China passed the Anti-Secession Law

1995/1996 the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

The Trigger--U.S. approval of a visa for Lee Teng-hui to visit the United States (May, 22, 1995)

What happened:Series of Missile Tests by China and Taiwan

China: July, 1995 / August, 1995 /March, 1996

Taiwan: September, 1995

The U.S. :Deployment of two carrier battle groups

March, 1996

1995/1996 the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis

• Taiwanese Domestic Politics

Taiwan

ChinaUS

Relationship

China-Japan-US

China-Japan-US• Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)• BBC Interview

From CNN

Relationship

Japan-Korea-US

Japan-Korea-US

• Alliance Management 1) Territorial disputes

/West Sea

Dokdo / Takeshima

Japan-Korea-US

• Alliance Management 1) Territorial disputes

2) History : Yasukuni shrine, Comfort women,

and history textbook.

Relationship

North Korea-US-Others

North Korea

-1st Nuclear Crisis (1993-1994)

North Korea Threatened to

withdraw from NPT

Carter’s mediation

Agreed Framework

North Korea-2nd Nuclear Crisis (2002-)

October, 2002: North Korea admitted that

it had a secret nuclear weapons program

August, 2003: Six-Party Talk

October, 2006: North Korea tested its first

nuclear weapons

May, 2009: the second test

Feb, 2013: the third test

North Korea• Divergent Interests?

Source: Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks by John S. Park

Issue U.S. PRC Japan ROK

High priority

Nuclear Proliferation

Refugees

Ballistic Missiles

North Korea

• Change of Leadership in North Korea

• Change in Chinese perception of North Korea?

• Recent events:

- Unofficial meeting between North Korea and Japan regarding the investigation on kidnapped Japanese

-North Korea threatened to conduct another nuclear test

-Efforts to resume six-party talks

Conclusion

• Pivot to Asia?• Complicated relationship between states in

East Asia• Pay attention to news this week! 23-25: Japan 25-26: Korea (Malaysia / Philippines)