america ’ s new demography rising minorities, aging boomers and emerging cultural gaps

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William H. Frey The Brookings Institution April 23, 2013 America’s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers and Emerging Cultural Gaps

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William H. Frey The Brookings Institution April 23, 2013. America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers and Emerging Cultural Gaps. US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050. 46.6%. 69.1%. US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050. 21.0%. 12.4%. Race Ethnic Shares. 2000-10 Growth. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

William H. FreyThe Brookings Institution

April 23, 2013

America’s New DemographyRising Minorities, Aging Boomers

and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Page 2: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2000 2050

White

Black

Asian

HispanicOther

69.1%

46.6%

Page 3: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000 2050

65+

45-54

20-44

Under 20

12.4%

21.0%

Page 4: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Race Ethnic Shares

63.712.2

16.31.9

4.7

White Black Am Indian AsianHawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic

5.0

15.9

13.7

8.3

55.5

2010 Population

2000-10 Growth

Page 5: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Median Ages of Race-Ethnic Groups

4134

30 30 2720

05

1015202530354045

Whites Asians Blacks AmIndians

Hispanics 2+Races

Page 6: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

US Adult and Child Populations, 1990-2010

78 72 67 69 61 54

11 11 12 1515

14

11 171214723

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010White Black Am Indian AsianHawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic

Adults Children

Page 7: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

2000-2010 Change in Child Population by Race-Ethnicity

-6,000,000

-4,000,000

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

White Black AmIndian

Asian 2+ Races Hispanic

Page 8: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

New Demographic Regions

Melting Pot America The New Sunbelt The Heartland

Page 9: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States

Melting PotNew SunbeltHeartland

Page 10: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Native Born 37%Foreign Born 66%

Spanish at Home 72%Asian Language at Home 65%

Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States

Page 11: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Demographic Components, 2000-2009

(Rates per 1000)

2616

-18

57

-15

42

-30-20-10

010203040506070

Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

Immigration

DomesticMigration

Page 12: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Born in Same State

GT 63% LT 63%

Page 13: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-09

1 Phoenix 530,5792 Riverside, CA 457,4303 Atlanta 412,8324 Dallas 307,9075 Las Vegas 299,0276 Tampa 254,6507 Charlotte 243,3998 Houston 242,573

Page 14: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-09

1 New York 1,079,0162 Los Angeles 803,6143 Miami 506,4234 Chicago 363,1345 Dallas 323,9416 Washington DC 310,2227 Houston 289,6488 San Francisco 257,318

Page 15: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-09

1 New York -1,920,7452 Los Angeles -1,337,5223 Chicago -547,4304 Detroit -361,632

5 San Francisco -343,834

6 New Orleans - 298,7217 Miami -284,8608 San Jose -233,133

Page 16: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Alabama SouthCarolina

Tennessee Arkansas Kentucky NorthCarolina

SouthDakota

Georgia

_______ ________ _____ Greatest Immigrant Growth 2000-

2010

Page 17: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

1948

-1949

1950

-1951

1952

-1953

1954

-1955

1956

-1957

1958

-1959

1960

-1961

1962

-1963

1964

-1965

1966

-1967

1968

-1969

1970

-1971

1975

-1976

1980

-1981

1982

-1983

1984

-1985

1986

-1987

1988

-1989

1990

-1991

1992

-1993

*19

94-19

9519

96-19

9719

98-19

9920

00-20

0120

02-20

0320

04-20

0520

06-20

0720

08-20

09

Migration Slowdown 1947-8 to 2009-10

Page 18: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Race –Ethnic Profiles of Regions 2010

67%

14%

3%

4%

12%

White Black Asian Other Hispanic

77%

12%

2%3% 6%

Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

51%

11%

7%

3%

28%

Page 19: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

25% and above

10.0% to 24.9%

5.0 to 9.9%

Under 5%

Hispanic Concentrations 2010

Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

Percent of County Population

Page 20: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Largest Hispanic Gains 2000-2010

State Gains1 California 3,047,1632 Texas 2,791,2553 Florida 1,541,0914 Arizona 599,5325 New York 549,3396 Illinois 497,3167 New Jersey 437,9538 North Carolina 421,157

Page 21: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Greatest Hispanic Growth Rates 2000-2010

State Growth1 South Carolina 148%2 Alabama 145%3 Tennessee 134%4 Kentucky 122%5 Arkansas 114%6 North Carolina 111%7 Maryland 106%8 Mississippi 106%

Page 22: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Asian Concentrations 2010

10% and above

5.0% to 9.9%

2.0% to 4.9%

Under 2%

Percent of County Population

Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

Page 23: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Largest Asian Gains 2000-2010

State Gains1 California 1,126,2102 Texas 393,9813 New York 370,2684 New Jersey 242,8155 Florida 183,5236 Virginia 177,0217 Illinois 160,6708 Washington 156,233

Page 24: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Greatest Asian Growth Rates 2000-2010

State Growth1 Nevada 116%2 North Dakota 92%3 Arizona 91%4 North Carolina 84%5 Georgia 82%6 Arkansas 79%7 New Hampshire 79%8 Delaware 76%

Page 25: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Black Concentrations 2010

Percent of County Population25% and above

10.0% to 24.9%

5.0% to 9.9%

Under 5% Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

Page 26: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Largest Black Gains 2000-2010

State Gains1 Florida 586,8322 Georgia 579,3353 Texas 522,5704 North Carolina 296,5535 Maryland 209,4946 Virginia 147,3267 Pennsylvania 124,6548 Tennessee 121,187

Page 27: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

White Concentrations 2010

Percent of County Population95% and above

85.0% to 94.9%

70.0% to 84.9%

Under 70% Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010

Page 28: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Largest White Gains 2000-2010

State Gains1 North Carolina 576,8402 Texas 464,0323 Florida 426,2134 Arizona 421,3895 Colorado 317,9136 Utah 317,4547 South Carolina 310,4498 Tennessee 294,852

Page 29: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Largest White Losses 2000-2010

State Losses1 California -860,5372 New York -456,7343 New Jersey -342,3314 Illinois -256,3875 Michigan -236,7526 Pennsylvania -227,8037 Massachusetts -213,5598 Ohio -178,848

Page 30: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Metro-NonMetro Race Changes, 1990-2010

71 64 57

82 77 7286 82 80

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Large Metros** Small Metros NonMetros

White* Black* Asian* Other Races* Hispanic

Page 31: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

City and Suburb Populations, 1990-2010

Cities Suburbs

53 45 41

81 72 65

2423 22

79

10

17 22 268 12 17

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010White Black Am Indian AsianHawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic

Page 32: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

2000-10 Change in City and Suburb

Population by Race/Ethnicity

-2,000,000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

City Suburbs

White Black Asian 2+ Races Hispanic

Page 33: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

City Suburb Race-Ethnic Profiles Selected Metros

28 36 3655

36

81

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

City Suburbs City Suburbs City Suburbs

White Black Asian/ other Hispanic

Los Angeles

Atlanta Detroit

Page 34: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Page 35: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Cities with Greatest Black Losses 2000-2010

City Black Loss1 Detroit -185,3932 Chicago -181,4533 New York -100,8594 Los Angeles -54,6065 Washington DC -39,0356 Oakland -33,5027 Cleveland -33,3048 Atlanta -29,746

Page 36: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Metro Residents Living in Suburbs

1990-2010

74

37

5447

77

4457 54

78

5162 59

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

White Black Asian Hispanic1990 2000 2010

Page 37: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

US Growth by Age 2000-10

211

3

-9

19

50

1812

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0- 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Page 38: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-10

Under age 18

Growth 5% and overGrowth under 5%Decline under 5%Decline 5% and over

Page 39: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Percent Minority Children, 2010

GT 50%40% - 50%25% - 40%Under 25%

Page 40: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Page 41: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Percent Children with Immigrant Parents

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

CA NY NV AZ FL NJ TX US

Ist Gen 2nd Gen

51%

35% 35% 34% 32% 31% 31%23%

Page 42: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Children Speaking Other than English

* Ages 5 - 17

GT 20%10% - 20%6% - 10%Under 6%

Page 43: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

English Proficiency- Children and Adults

Source: William H Frey analysis

22

17

20

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

Not English At Home English Very WellChildren Adults

Page 44: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Education by Race-Ethnicity

52

22 18 10 14

10 17 1831

50

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

HispanicForeignBorn

HispanicNativeBorn

Black White Asian

Less then HS HS grad Some College College Grads Pew Hispanic Center

Page 45: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: Pew Research Center

HS Dropout Rates: Hispanics Age 16-24

17.2

32.9

8.511.6

05

101520253035

All Hispanics 1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen +

Page 46: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Percent College Graduates for States

GT 30%25% -30%Under 25%

Page 47: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Largest Percent College Grads

1 Washington DC 47%

2 San Jose 45%3 Bridgeport 44%4 43%5 Madison 43%6 Boston 43%7 Raleigh 41%8 Austin 39%9 Denver 38%

10 Minn-St.Paul 38%

Alaska

San Francisco

Page 48: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Ratio of College Grads to High School Dropouts

3.0 and above2.0 – 3.0Below 2.0

Page 49: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

US Growth by Age 2000-10

211

3

-9

19

50

1812

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0- 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Page 50: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Median Ages for States, 2010

40 and over38 to 4036 to 38Below 36

Page 51: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Age 65 + Growth 2000-10

GT 25%15% -25%10% -15%under 10%

Page 52: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Greatest 65+ Growth, 2000-2010

1 Raleigh 60%2 Austin 53%3 Las Vegas 50%4 46%5 Atlanta 44%6 Provo 42%7 Colorado

Springs 40%8 Houston 39%9 Dallas 38%

10 Charlotte 36%

Alaska

Boise City

Page 53: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Population Changes in the First Three Decades, 21st Century

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Young Elderly Old Elderly

2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020- 2030

(65 - 74) (75 +)

Source: William H. Frey

Page 54: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

140% & above100% -139%70% -99%under 69%

Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30, US States

Page 55: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40

02468

101214161820

2005

-10

2010

-15

2015

-20

2020

-25

2025

-30

2030

-35

2035

-40

2000

-05

2005

-10

2010

-15

2015

-20

2020

-25

2025

-30

2030

-35

2035

-40

2000

-05

2005

-10

2010

-15

2015

-20

2020

-25

2025

-30

2030

-35

2035

-40

Florida California New York

perc

ent g

row

th

Page 56: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Percent Age 65+, Central and Suburban Counties, Projected 2000-2040: Selected

Metro Areas

Source: William H. Frey analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Central Cos. Suburban Cos.Chicago Los AnglosNew York Philadelphia

Page 57: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife

14%

23%

36%

30%

38%

50%

21%

55%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

% HS Dropout

%Women Not Working

% Not Married

% With 3+ Kids

Boomers Parents

Page 58: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, 2000-30

61 54 50 46

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030

Children

84 80 76 71

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030

Seniors

white

Black

Asian/Other

Hispanic

Page 59: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Contributions to Labor Force Growth 2010-2020 (in millions)

23.5

9.6

-5

-6-4-202468

1012

White Black Asian/ Other Hispanic

Page 60: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Race for Age Groups: US

55.5 60.371.6 80.4

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+

White Black Asian Other Hispanic

Page 61: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Race for Age Groups: California

31.8 36.753.5

65.2

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+

White Black Asian Other Hispanic

Page 62: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Race for Age Groups: Minnesota

78.6 82.3 91.6 96.2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+

White Black Asian Other Hispanic

Page 63: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Race for Age Groups: Arizona

42 5168

83

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+

White Black Asian Other Hispanic

Page 64: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Racial Generation GapsDifference in White Percent: Seniors minus Children

25 and above20 to 2515 to 20Below 15

Page 65: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

State Growth, 2000-2010

Below 0%0% -4%5% - 9%10% - 20%20% +

Page 66: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis

Changes in Congressional Seats from 2010 Census

4

11

1

1

11

2

-1-1

-1-1

-1

-2

-1

-1

-1

-2

-1

Page 67: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Hispanic Share of Population, 2010

Below 5%5% - 9%10% - 19%20% - 34%35%+

Page 68: America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers  and Emerging Cultural Gaps

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Hispanic Percent of Growth in States Gaining Seats from 2010

Census

63

51 50 48

3226 23 20

010203040506070

Texas

Florid

a

Arizon

a

Nevada

Washing

ton Utah

Georgia

South

Carol

ina

Perc

ent