america ’ s new demography rising minorities, aging boomers and emerging cultural gaps
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William H. Frey The Brookings Institution April 23, 2013. America ’ s New Demography Rising Minorities, Aging Boomers and Emerging Cultural Gaps. US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050. 46.6%. 69.1%. US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050. 21.0%. 12.4%. Race Ethnic Shares. 2000-10 Growth. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
William H. FreyThe Brookings Institution
April 23, 2013
America’s New DemographyRising Minorities, Aging Boomers
and Emerging Cultural Gaps
Source: William H. Frey analysis
US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2000 2050
White
Black
Asian
HispanicOther
69.1%
46.6%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2000 2050
65+
45-54
20-44
Under 20
12.4%
21.0%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Race Ethnic Shares
63.712.2
16.31.9
4.7
White Black Am Indian AsianHawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic
5.0
15.9
13.7
8.3
55.5
2010 Population
2000-10 Growth
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Median Ages of Race-Ethnic Groups
4134
30 30 2720
05
1015202530354045
Whites Asians Blacks AmIndians
Hispanics 2+Races
Source: William H. Frey analysis
US Adult and Child Populations, 1990-2010
78 72 67 69 61 54
11 11 12 1515
14
11 171214723
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010White Black Am Indian AsianHawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic
Adults Children
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2000-2010 Change in Child Population by Race-Ethnicity
-6,000,000
-4,000,000
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
White Black AmIndian
Asian 2+ Races Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis
New Demographic Regions
Melting Pot America The New Sunbelt The Heartland
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States
Melting PotNew SunbeltHeartland
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Native Born 37%Foreign Born 66%
Spanish at Home 72%Asian Language at Home 65%
Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Demographic Components, 2000-2009
(Rates per 1000)
2616
-18
57
-15
42
-30-20-10
010203040506070
Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
Immigration
DomesticMigration
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Born in Same State
GT 63% LT 63%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-09
1 Phoenix 530,5792 Riverside, CA 457,4303 Atlanta 412,8324 Dallas 307,9075 Las Vegas 299,0276 Tampa 254,6507 Charlotte 243,3998 Houston 242,573
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-09
1 New York 1,079,0162 Los Angeles 803,6143 Miami 506,4234 Chicago 363,1345 Dallas 323,9416 Washington DC 310,2227 Houston 289,6488 San Francisco 257,318
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-09
1 New York -1,920,7452 Los Angeles -1,337,5223 Chicago -547,4304 Detroit -361,632
5 San Francisco -343,834
6 New Orleans - 298,7217 Miami -284,8608 San Jose -233,133
Source: William H. Frey analysis
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Alabama SouthCarolina
Tennessee Arkansas Kentucky NorthCarolina
SouthDakota
Georgia
_______ ________ _____ Greatest Immigrant Growth 2000-
2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
1948
-1949
1950
-1951
1952
-1953
1954
-1955
1956
-1957
1958
-1959
1960
-1961
1962
-1963
1964
-1965
1966
-1967
1968
-1969
1970
-1971
1975
-1976
1980
-1981
1982
-1983
1984
-1985
1986
-1987
1988
-1989
1990
-1991
1992
-1993
*19
94-19
9519
96-19
9719
98-19
9920
00-20
0120
02-20
0320
04-20
0520
06-20
0720
08-20
09
Migration Slowdown 1947-8 to 2009-10
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Race –Ethnic Profiles of Regions 2010
67%
14%
3%
4%
12%
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
77%
12%
2%3% 6%
Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
51%
11%
7%
3%
28%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
25% and above
10.0% to 24.9%
5.0 to 9.9%
Under 5%
Hispanic Concentrations 2010
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Percent of County Population
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Largest Hispanic Gains 2000-2010
State Gains1 California 3,047,1632 Texas 2,791,2553 Florida 1,541,0914 Arizona 599,5325 New York 549,3396 Illinois 497,3167 New Jersey 437,9538 North Carolina 421,157
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Greatest Hispanic Growth Rates 2000-2010
State Growth1 South Carolina 148%2 Alabama 145%3 Tennessee 134%4 Kentucky 122%5 Arkansas 114%6 North Carolina 111%7 Maryland 106%8 Mississippi 106%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Asian Concentrations 2010
10% and above
5.0% to 9.9%
2.0% to 4.9%
Under 2%
Percent of County Population
Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Largest Asian Gains 2000-2010
State Gains1 California 1,126,2102 Texas 393,9813 New York 370,2684 New Jersey 242,8155 Florida 183,5236 Virginia 177,0217 Illinois 160,6708 Washington 156,233
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Greatest Asian Growth Rates 2000-2010
State Growth1 Nevada 116%2 North Dakota 92%3 Arizona 91%4 North Carolina 84%5 Georgia 82%6 Arkansas 79%7 New Hampshire 79%8 Delaware 76%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Black Concentrations 2010
Percent of County Population25% and above
10.0% to 24.9%
5.0% to 9.9%
Under 5% Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Largest Black Gains 2000-2010
State Gains1 Florida 586,8322 Georgia 579,3353 Texas 522,5704 North Carolina 296,5535 Maryland 209,4946 Virginia 147,3267 Pennsylvania 124,6548 Tennessee 121,187
Source: William H. Frey analysis
White Concentrations 2010
Percent of County Population95% and above
85.0% to 94.9%
70.0% to 84.9%
Under 70% Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Largest White Gains 2000-2010
State Gains1 North Carolina 576,8402 Texas 464,0323 Florida 426,2134 Arizona 421,3895 Colorado 317,9136 Utah 317,4547 South Carolina 310,4498 Tennessee 294,852
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Largest White Losses 2000-2010
State Losses1 California -860,5372 New York -456,7343 New Jersey -342,3314 Illinois -256,3875 Michigan -236,7526 Pennsylvania -227,8037 Massachusetts -213,5598 Ohio -178,848
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Metro-NonMetro Race Changes, 1990-2010
71 64 57
82 77 7286 82 80
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Large Metros** Small Metros NonMetros
White* Black* Asian* Other Races* Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis
City and Suburb Populations, 1990-2010
Cities Suburbs
53 45 41
81 72 65
2423 22
79
10
17 22 268 12 17
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010White Black Am Indian AsianHawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis
2000-10 Change in City and Suburb
Population by Race/Ethnicity
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
City Suburbs
White Black Asian 2+ Races Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
City Suburb Race-Ethnic Profiles Selected Metros
28 36 3655
36
81
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
City Suburbs City Suburbs City Suburbs
White Black Asian/ other Hispanic
Los Angeles
Atlanta Detroit
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Cities with Greatest Black Losses 2000-2010
City Black Loss1 Detroit -185,3932 Chicago -181,4533 New York -100,8594 Los Angeles -54,6065 Washington DC -39,0356 Oakland -33,5027 Cleveland -33,3048 Atlanta -29,746
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Metro Residents Living in Suburbs
1990-2010
74
37
5447
77
4457 54
78
5162 59
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
White Black Asian Hispanic1990 2000 2010
Source: William H. Frey analysis
US Growth by Age 2000-10
211
3
-9
19
50
1812
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0- 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-10
Under age 18
Growth 5% and overGrowth under 5%Decline under 5%Decline 5% and over
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Percent Minority Children, 2010
GT 50%40% - 50%25% - 40%Under 25%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Percent Children with Immigrant Parents
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
CA NY NV AZ FL NJ TX US
Ist Gen 2nd Gen
51%
35% 35% 34% 32% 31% 31%23%
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Children Speaking Other than English
* Ages 5 - 17
GT 20%10% - 20%6% - 10%Under 6%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
English Proficiency- Children and Adults
Source: William H Frey analysis
22
17
20
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
Not English At Home English Very WellChildren Adults
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Education by Race-Ethnicity
52
22 18 10 14
10 17 1831
50
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
HispanicForeignBorn
HispanicNativeBorn
Black White Asian
Less then HS HS grad Some College College Grads Pew Hispanic Center
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: Pew Research Center
HS Dropout Rates: Hispanics Age 16-24
17.2
32.9
8.511.6
05
101520253035
All Hispanics 1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen +
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Percent College Graduates for States
GT 30%25% -30%Under 25%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Largest Percent College Grads
1 Washington DC 47%
2 San Jose 45%3 Bridgeport 44%4 43%5 Madison 43%6 Boston 43%7 Raleigh 41%8 Austin 39%9 Denver 38%
10 Minn-St.Paul 38%
Alaska
San Francisco
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Ratio of College Grads to High School Dropouts
3.0 and above2.0 – 3.0Below 2.0
Source: William H. Frey analysis
US Growth by Age 2000-10
211
3
-9
19
50
1812
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0- 14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Median Ages for States, 2010
40 and over38 to 4036 to 38Below 36
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Age 65 + Growth 2000-10
GT 25%15% -25%10% -15%under 10%
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Greatest 65+ Growth, 2000-2010
1 Raleigh 60%2 Austin 53%3 Las Vegas 50%4 46%5 Atlanta 44%6 Provo 42%7 Colorado
Springs 40%8 Houston 39%9 Dallas 38%
10 Charlotte 36%
Alaska
Boise City
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Population Changes in the First Three Decades, 21st Century
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Young Elderly Old Elderly
2000 - 2010 2010 - 2020 2020- 2030
(65 - 74) (75 +)
Source: William H. Frey
Source: William H. Frey analysis
140% & above100% -139%70% -99%under 69%
Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30, US States
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40
02468
101214161820
2005
-10
2010
-15
2015
-20
2020
-25
2025
-30
2030
-35
2035
-40
2000
-05
2005
-10
2010
-15
2015
-20
2020
-25
2025
-30
2030
-35
2035
-40
2000
-05
2005
-10
2010
-15
2015
-20
2020
-25
2025
-30
2030
-35
2035
-40
Florida California New York
perc
ent g
row
th
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Percent Age 65+, Central and Suburban Counties, Projected 2000-2040: Selected
Metro Areas
Source: William H. Frey analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Central Cos. Suburban Cos.Chicago Los AnglosNew York Philadelphia
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife
14%
23%
36%
30%
38%
50%
21%
55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
% HS Dropout
%Women Not Working
% Not Married
% With 3+ Kids
Boomers Parents
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, 2000-30
61 54 50 46
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030
Children
84 80 76 71
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2000 2010 2020 2030
Seniors
white
Black
Asian/Other
Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Contributions to Labor Force Growth 2010-2020 (in millions)
23.5
9.6
-5
-6-4-202468
1012
White Black Asian/ Other Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Race for Age Groups: US
55.5 60.371.6 80.4
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Age Under15
Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Race for Age Groups: California
31.8 36.753.5
65.2
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Age Under15
Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Race for Age Groups: Minnesota
78.6 82.3 91.6 96.2
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Age Under15
Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Race for Age Groups: Arizona
42 5168
83
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Age Under15
Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+
White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Racial Generation GapsDifference in White Percent: Seniors minus Children
25 and above20 to 2515 to 20Below 15
Source: William H. Frey analysis
State Growth, 2000-2010
Below 0%0% -4%5% - 9%10% - 20%20% +
Source: William H. Frey analysisSource: William H. Frey analysis
Changes in Congressional Seats from 2010 Census
4
11
1
1
11
2
-1-1
-1-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Hispanic Share of Population, 2010
Below 5%5% - 9%10% - 19%20% - 34%35%+
Source: William H. Frey analysis
Hispanic Percent of Growth in States Gaining Seats from 2010
Census
63
51 50 48
3226 23 20
010203040506070
Texas
Florid
a
Arizon
a
Nevada
Washing
ton Utah
Georgia
South
Carol
ina
Perc
ent