alvin demographic independent update school fall 2017 · were new homes • the average sale price...
TRANSCRIPT
Learn from Yesterday…
Understand Today…
Plan for Tomorrow
AlvinIndependentSchoolDistrict
Demographic Update
Fall 2017
Economic Conditions – Houston Area (September 2017)
2
Unemployment
Rate
-0.4%
34,589 new jobs
National rate 1.6%
Job Growth
1.1%
1,904 more
starts than 3Q16
Annual
Home Starts
27,713
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy
U.S. 4.1%
Texas 4.0%
Houston MSA 4.8%
Alvin 5.5%
• Between 30,000 and 40,000 homes are estimated to have been destroyed in the Houston area, roughly 3.8% - 5.1% of Houston area homes
• Approximately 100,000 total homes are estimated to have been affected in the Houston area
• Approximately 105,000 apartment units have sustained damage as a result of flooding
• Most affected areas include: Port Arthur, Galveston/Houston, Port Aransas, Dickinson, and League City
• Local retail sales are expected to increase in Harris, Montgomery, and Fort Bend Counties
• Recovery total investment is estimated to be $150-$180 Billion
• Major spikes in rental and condo properties are expected as buyers seek to secure short term housing options
• Renovation activity is expected to increase as homeowners begin to rebuild damaged homes
Local Economy- Harvey Impact
3
Alvin ISD Home Sales
• Alvin ISD has had 2,120 home sales in 2017, and roughly 38% of them were new homes
• The average sale price in 2017 for a new home in AISD is $323,656
• The average sale price in 2017 for an existing home in AISD is $244,865
January – October 2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type
4
New Home Sales37.86%
Existing Home Sales56.07% REO Sales
3.67%
Foreclosures2.40%
2017 DistrictHome Sales
by Type
Alvin ISD Historical Home Price Analysis
• The average new home price has risen 50% since
2010, a price difference of $108,796
• The average existing home price within Alvin ISD has
risen 34% since 2010, a price change of $62,672
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 Y T D 2 0 1 7
NEW VS EXISTING HOME SALE PRICE, 2010 - 2017
New Homes Existing Homes
New Homes
Existing Homes
2010 $214,860 $182,193
2011 $213,775 $217,235
2012 $230,724 $187,127
2013 $255,691 $193,812
2014 $272,496 $211,622
2015 $302,885 $226,751
2016 $311,487 $233,393
YTD 2017 $323,656 $244,865 5
Houston New Home Ranking Report
6
ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q17
*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff
Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future
1 Fort Bend ISD 3,118 3,057 3,079 14,603
2 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 2,879 2,879 3,089 15,809
3 Katy ISD 2,289 2,398 3,180 16,314
4 Lamar CISD 2,518 2,359 4,255 17,285
5 Houston ISD 2,051 1,994 3,251 7,346
6 Conroe ISD 1,935 1,964 4,538 24,733
7 Alvin ISD* 1,390 1,332 1,859 15,024
8 Klein ISD 961 1,242 1,734 2,228
9 Humble ISD 1,204 1,088 2,144 8,219
10 Clear Creek ISD 990 965 1,549 3,726
11 Tomball ISD 1,031 881 2,380 2,534
12 Spring ISD 716 675 545 6,777
13 Aldine ISD 514 517 998 1,285
14 Spring Branch ISD 542 473 1,456 903
15 Sheldon ISD 449 465 548 3,521
16 New Caney ISD 418 433 864 3,819
17 Pearland ISD 362 378 241 454
18 Magnolia ISD 335 371 1,128 4,055
19 Goose Creek CISD 286 331 565 1,492
20 Montgomery ISD 284 326 1,066 4,543
New Housing Activity
• Alvin ISD had more than 360 new home starts for the second straight quarter
• The district had 390 new home closings in 3Q17, the most quarter closings
in more than 10 years
• New home inventory is currently at a healthy 7 month’s supply, due to a
strong quarter of closings 7
Alvin ISD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Starts Closings
Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1Q 195 143 205 229 314 276 1Q 178 178 156 212 227 265
2Q 204 186 233 299 209 368 2Q 200 168 232 274 246 272
3Q 204 174 252 243 316 362 3Q 193 158 188 244 293 390
4Q 151 163 224 252 262 4Q 182 155 226 228 293
Total 754 666 914 1,023 1,101 1,006 Total 753 659 802 958 1,059 927
Annual Closings 3Q17
8
Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings)
Rank SubdivisionElementary
Zone Annual Closings
Quarter Closings VDL Future
1 SAVANNAH (POMONA) POMONA 183 49 215 804
2 RODEO PALMS JETER 179 84 94 135
3 STERLING LAKES MERIDIANA 170 44 369 3,085
4 MERIDIANA MERIDIANA 148 44 175 5,058
5 SOUTHLAKE YORK 112 33 82 101
6 POMONA POMONA 96 32 256 1,608
7 SEDONA LAKES POMONA 96 31 82 237
8 LAKELAND MASON 88 14 132 202
9 SOUTHERN TRAILS BROTHERS 76 20 38 0
10 KENDALL LAKES TWAIN 39 10 109 70
TOTALS 1,187 361 1,552 11,300
Vacant Delivered Lots 3Q17
9
Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by remaining VDL)
Rank SubdivisionElementary
Zone Annual Closings VDL Future
1 STERLING LAKES MERIDIANA 170 369 3,085
2 POMONA POMONA 96 256 1,608
3 SAVANNAH (POMONA) POMONA 183 215 804
4 MERIDIANA MERIDIANA 148 175 5,058
6 LAKELAND MASON 88 132 202
5 KENDALL LAKES TWAIN 39 109 70
8 RODEO PALMS JETER 179 94 135
7 NEWPORT LAKE ESTATES JETER 0 89 98
9 SOUTHLAKE YORK 112 82 101
10 SEDONA LAKES POMONA 96 82 237
TOTALS 1,111 1,603 11,398
Future Lots 3Q17
10
Top 10 Subdivisions - 3Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory)
Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone Annual
Closings VDL Future
1 MERIDIANA MERIDIANA 148 175 5,058
2 STERLING LAKES MERIDIANA 170 369 3,085
3 POMONA POMONA 96 256 1,260
4 SAVANNAH (POMONA) POMONA 183 215 1,169
5 SIERRA VISTA MERIDIANA 0 0 732
6 MASSEY OAKS (AISD) HOOD-CASE 0 0 650
7 LACOVIA LAKES MERIDIANA 0 0 440
8 YANNI PALMS JETER 0 0 376
9 BLUEWATER LAKES ON MANVEL MASON 0 0 329
10 MORGAN'S LANDING STEVENSON/DISNEY 1 0 324
TOTALS 598 1,015 13,423
New Home Activity by Elementary Zone
11
ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONE
Annual Starts
Quarter Starts
Annual Closings
Quarter Closings
Under Const. Inventory
Vacant Dev. Lots Future
ALVIN/ALVIN 31 12 23 12 10 15 79 22
BROTHERS 71 18 76 20 25 38 38 0
DUKE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
HASSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 178
HOOD-CASE 53 18 36 27 19 26 15 1,142
JETER 199 37 179 84 51 76 183 609
MAREK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MASON 56 8 88 14 8 13 132 531
MERIDIANA 328 98 321 89 98 205 602 9,315
PASSMORE 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 18
POMONA 414 148 375 112 186 250 553 2,649
SAVANNAH LAKES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
STEVENSON/DISNEY 4 1 1 0 2 3 6 324
TWAIN 55 15 39 10 24 33 109 118
WILDER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
YORK 179 40 194 55 50 63 128 101
Grand Total 1,390 395 1,332 423 473 722 1,859 15,024
Highest activity in the category
Second highest activity in the category
Third highest activity in the category
District Housing Overview
12
• The district has more than 1,800 lots available to build on
• Alvin ISD has more than 15,000 planned future lots
• Of those, groundwork is underway on about 800 lots
Residential Activity
13
Pomona
• 2,100 total lots
• 1,608 future lots
• 131 occupied
• 256 VDL
• 81 homes under construction
• 71 starts in 3Q17
• Building 150 – 200 homes in 2018
• $260K-$550K
• Current student yield = 0.53
• Approx. 600 – 650 total elementary
students at build out
• Pomona Elementary
Residential Activity
14
Lakes of Savannah
• 3,139 total lots within AISD
• 804 futures within AISD
• 2,021 occupied
• 215 VDL
• 71 U/C
• Started and closed 49 homes in 3Q17
• Building 180 – 200 homes in 2018
• Additional 365 future lots within Fort
Bend ISD
• 1,610 occupied homes within
Savannah Lakes Elementary, all
homebuilding within Pomona
• Current student yield = 0.63
• Approx. 1,000 total elementary
students at build out
Fort Bend ISD All housing activity
within Pomona
Elem Zone
Residential Activity
15
Rodeo Palms
• 1,465 total lots
• 135 futures
• 1,172 occupied
• 94 VDL
• 40 U/C
• Building 180-200 homes per year
• Built out by the end of 2019
• $180K- $485K
• Current student yield = 0.74
• Jeter Elementary
• Approx. 540 total elementary
students at build out
Newport Lake Estates
• 199 total lots
• 98 futures
• 89 VDL
• First 12 homes U/C
• First residents expected late 2017/early 2018
• $250K - $400K
• Jeter Elementary
• Approx. 70 total elementary students at build out
Yanni Palms
• 376 planned future lots
• Developer in talks with the City of Manvel
• No plats/plans submitted at this time
• Groundwork could start in 2018 pending
plat approval
• Jeter Elementary
• Approx. 130 total elementary students at
build out
Residential Activity
16
Sedona Lakes
• 864 total lots
• 237 futures
• 490 occupied
• 82 VDL
• 34 U/C
• Building 80 – 100 homes in 2018
• $300K - $600K
• Current student yield = 0.42
• Pomona Elementary
• Approx. 225 total elementary
students at build out
Oak Crest of Manvel
• 288 existing manufactured home sites
• Additional 67 lots released summer
2017 and adding homes
• Current student yield = 0.57
• Mason Elementary
Residential Activity
17
Meridiana
• 5,501 total lots• 5,058 futures• 153 occupied• 175 VDL• 65 U/C• $250K-$750K• Building 180 – 200 homes in 2018• Current student yield = 0.59• Meridiana Elementary • Approx. 1,900 total elementary
students at build out
Residential Activity
18
Sterling Lakes• 4,682 total lots• 3,085 futures• 1,145 occupied• 369 VDL• 27 U/C• $180K-$460K• Building 150 – 180 homes in
2018• Future Sanchez Elementary in
development, opening Fall 2019
• Current student yield = 0.68• Meridiana Elementary • Approx. 1,640 total elementary
students at build out
Residential Activity
19
Sierra Vista• 732 total future lots• Groundwork underway on Phase 1
with 211 lots • Phase 1 delivering December 2017• First homes starting early 2018• $250K+• Meridiana Elementary• Approx. 250 total elementary
students at build out
Lacovia Lakes• Approx. 440 future lots• Preliminary plat approved in
November 2016• Homebuilding could start by
late 2019 or early 2020• Split between Meridiana and
Mason Elementary• Approx. 150 total elementary
students at build out
Residential Activity
20
Bluewater Lakes• 330 future lots• Groundwork underway on
Sections 1 & 3 with 128 lots, delivering 4Q17
• First homes occupied early 2018• Beezer Homes• Mason Elementary• Approx. 80 total elementary
students at build out
Pearland ISD
Massey Oaks• 975 total planned lots on 375 acres• Property was rezoned and annexed into the City of
Pearland in July 2017• At this time, approx. 650 lots fall within AISD• Developer seeking to have entire development
moved into AISD boundary• Pending approval from AISD and Pearland ISD
Boards • Hood-Case Elementary• Approx. 250 total elementary students at build out
Multi-Family Overview
21
Apartment Units Status Impact Elem Zone
1 Shadow Creek Ranch MF 6 340 Under Construction Summer 2018 Wilder
2 Southfork Lake Apartments 329 Complete and Leasing Stud Yield: 0.10 Duke
1
2
Apartment Yield Analysis
22
• Alvin ISD has 1,966 current students residing in 6,663 existing apartment units
• The district’s average apartment yield is 0.30
Manufactured Home Yield Analysis
23
• Alvin ISD has 1,585 current students residing in 1,733 existing manufactured homes
• The district’s average manufactured home community yield is 0.91
Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level
24
• Alvin ISD may enroll 27,000 students by 2019
• 5 year enrollment growth = 5,938
• 2022/23 enrollment = 30,831
• 10 year enrollment growth = 10,305
• 2027/28 enrollment = 35,198
*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year
Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal
Growth %
Growth
2013/14 842 1,657 1,604 1,631 1,517 1,412 1,527 1,469 1,418 1,507 1,524 1,453 1,273 975 19,809
2014/15 852 1,670 1,770 1,676 1,668 1,570 1,504 1,583 1,506 1,484 1,662 1,416 1,429 1,076 20,866 1,057 5.3%
2015/16 844 1,720 1,800 1,855 1,758 1,746 1,612 1,628 1,679 1,564 1,719 1,579 1,419 1,235 22,158 1,292 6.2%
2016/17 851 1,726 1,920 1,880 1,923 1,875 1,853 1,711 1,728 1,762 1,837 1,686 1,607 1,272 23,631 1,473 6.6%
2017/18 819 1,779 1,842 1,985 1,976 2,034 1,981 1,939 1,797 1,803 2,009 1,800 1,675 1,454 24,896 1,265 5.3%
2018/19 819 1,824 1,911 1,927 2,076 2,081 2,145 2,106 2,033 1,878 2,005 1,919 1,770 1,547 26,041 1,145 4.6%
2019/20 819 1,865 1,967 2,000 1,987 2,191 2,180 2,292 2,230 2,140 2,115 1,885 1,869 1,631 27,170 1,129 4.3%
2020/21 819 1,918 1,989 2,058 2,062 2,082 2,300 2,330 2,415 2,350 2,399 2,047 1,857 1,720 28,347 1,177 4.3%
2021/22 819 1,964 2,063 2,088 2,168 2,183 2,203 2,465 2,459 2,540 2,625 2,290 2,010 1,719 29,596 1,250 4.4%
2022/23 819 2,033 2,086 2,136 2,158 2,281 2,289 2,362 2,615 2,597 2,843 2,505 2,246 1,861 30,831 1,235 4.2%
2023/24 819 2,072 2,179 2,163 2,220 2,261 2,391 2,459 2,501 2,770 2,906 2,728 2,463 2,079 32,011 1,179 3.8%
2024/25 819 2,115 2,203 2,282 2,241 2,311 2,366 2,568 2,610 2,647 3,100 2,783 2,678 2,291 33,014 1,003 3.1%
2025/26 819 2,148 2,244 2,297 2,364 2,337 2,429 2,545 2,722 2,766 2,965 2,973 2,734 2,490 33,833 820 2.5%
2026/27 819 2,177 2,277 2,343 2,381 2,463 2,455 2,615 2,702 2,881 3,097 2,847 2,922 2,547 34,526 693 2.0%
2027/28 819 2,235 2,303 2,366 2,415 2,477 2,580 2,645 2,777 2,864 3,226 2,972 2,798 2,722 35,198 672 1.9%
Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus
25
• Brothers Elementary opened this fall with 770 students
• Pomona Elementary opened this fall with 402 students
*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings
Permanent Building Capacity
Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs
Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Campus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
Alvin Elementary 484 704 547 525 520 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alvin Primary 702 746 589 592 601 1,131 1,139 1,138 1,142 1,148 1,127 1,146 1,139 1,148
Hood-Case Elementary 750 926 717 671 678 653 657 668 707 715 735 754 765 774
Jeter Elementary 800 888 796 829 851 863 912 971 989 1,007 1,022 1,040 1,058 1,060
Hasse Elementary 800 800 713 769 811 825 834 837 844 832 824 817 809 797
Marek Elementary 800 888 886 765 723 692 663 681 685 707 700 702 721 731
Mark Twain Elementary 800 800 773 783 800 801 826 824 823 824 829 827 831 837
Mason Elementary 653 829 757 695 729 751 788 835 868 867 867 858 854 863
Passmore Elementary 750 838 708 674 675 678 672 678 694 708 709 726 720 699
Savannah Lakes Elementary 800 932 897 844 837 833 839 827 856 868 885 915 944 972
R L Stevenson Elementary 613 745 598 592 590 572 574 568 565 562 580 591 601 615
Walt Disney Elementary 572 572 566 543 526 515 496 498 492 506 484 491 501 512
Wilder Elementary 800 932 937 843 847 833 782 771 751 765 778 786 802 813
York Elementary 800 800 1,005 869 907 930 933 930 908 912 918 923 927 938
Duke Elementary 800 888 908 539 531 542 520 501 497 503 518 531 544 562
Meridiana Elementary 800 800 610 701 802 922 1,029 1,159 1,318 1,429 1,567 1,706 1,829 1,962
Brothers Elementary 800 800 0 770 843 873 881 858 866 868 873 879 885 893
Pomona Elementary 800 800 0 402 499 582 670 731 784 871 908 933 972 1,006
ELEMENTARY TOTALS 13,324 14,688 12,007 12,406 12,770 12,996 13,215 13,475 13,789 14,092 14,324 14,625 14,902 15,182
Elementary Absolute Growth 696 399 367 226 219 260 314 303 232 301 277 280
Elementary Percent Growth 6.15% 3.30% 2.96% 1.77% 1.69% 1.97% 2.33% 2.20% 1.65% 2.10% 1.89% 1.88%
Ten Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus
26
• Junior High #7 is expected to open Fall 2018
• Alvin High School now exceeds capacity with
temporary and flex buildings
*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings
Permanent Building Capacity
Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs
Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Campus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
Alvin Junior High 1,000 1,000 831 847 917 945 893 881 857 836 859 854 867 836
Fairview Junior High 1,000 1,000 757 719 790 835 885 899 888 890 917 931 932 919
Harby Junior High 832 904 768 766 786 857 899 931 889 934 940 981 977 988
Rodeo Palms 1,000 1,000 780 970 1,116 1,282 1,432 1,546 1,647 1,697 1,680 1,682 1,702 1,720
Manvel Junior High 1,000 1,000 1,009 1,135 1,238 1,413 1,514 1,716 1,819 1,983 2,055 2,235 2,331 2,442
Ryan Junior High 1,000 1,144 1,055 1,099 1,167 1,327 1,469 1,488 1,471 1,387 1,371 1,347 1,386 1,378
JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,832 6,048 5,200 5,536 6,014 6,659 7,092 7,461 7,571 7,727 7,822 8,030 8,195 8,283
Junior High Absolute Growth 330 336 478 645 433 369 110 156 95 208 165 88
Junior High Percent Growth 6.78% 6.46% 8.63% 10.72% 6.50% 5.20% 1.47% 2.06% 1.23% 2.66% 2.05% 1.07%
Alvin High School 2,640 2,760 2,661 2,763 2,716 2,728 2,818 2,869 3,036 3,116 3,150 3,125 3,118 3,177
Manvel High School 2,685 2,901 2,091 1,832 1,781 1,862 2,040 2,217 2,444 2,694 2,971 3,140 3,399 3,621
Shadow Creek High School 2,500 2,500 1,470 2,194 2,567 2,738 3,000 3,387 3,806 4,197 4,561 4,728 4,727 4,750
HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,825 8,161 6,222 6,789 7,064 7,328 7,858 8,473 9,286 10,007 10,682 10,993 11,244 11,548
High School Absolute Growth 450 567 275 264 530 615 813 721 675 311 251 304
High School Percent Growth 7.80% 9.11% 4.05% 3.74% 7.23% 7.83% 9.60% 7.76% 6.75% 2.91% 2.28% 2.70%
Assets 300 300 197 159 187 181 176 181 179 179 180 179 179 179
Brazoria Co. J JAEP 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
ALTERNATIVE TOTALS 300 300 202 165 193 187 182 187 185 185 186 185 185 186
DISTRICT TOTALS 27,281 29,197 23,631 24,896 26,041 27,170 28,347 29,596 30,831 32,011 33,014 33,833 34,526 35,198
District Absolute Growth 1,473 1,265 1,145 1,129 1,177 1,250 1,235 1,179 1,003 820 693 673
District Percent Growth 6.6% 5.3% 4.6% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 3.8% 3.1% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9%
Summary
• Alvin ISD has more than 1,300 new home closings in to date in 2017.
• The median new home price within Alvin ISD is nearly $324,000.
• 5 subdivisions within Alvin ISD had more than 100 closings in the last year.
• Brothers Elementary opened this fall with about 770 students, and Pomona Elementary opened with 402 students.
• Five-year enrollment growth of 5,938 students, with a fall 2022 enrollment of 30,831.
• Ten-Year enrollment growth of 10,305 students with a fall 2027 enrollment of 35,198.
27