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Quality! Michael Diekmann, Chief Executive Officer Merrill Lynch Banking and Insurance Conference, London, October 2011

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Page 1: Allianz Presentation ML Oct 11

Quality!

Michael Diekmann, Chief Executive Officer

Merrill Lynch Banking and Insurance Conference,London, October 2011

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OutlookD

European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)C

Déjà vu – lessons from the crisisB

Allianz at a glanceAAgenda

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1) 12/20102) 06/20113) Relation of positive parts of operating profit

P/C

Allianz at a glance

EUR 106bn total revenues1

EUR 1,508bn total AuM2

EUR 8.2bn operating profit1

180% solvency ratio2

EUR 43bn S/H equity2

EUR 44bn market cap2

More than 76mn customers1

Segments1,3

Operating profit in %Regions1,3

Operating profit in %

AM

L/H WesternEurope

GermanyGrowth markets

Specialty insurance

Broker markets US, UK, AUS

31%

22%

47%

5%12%

32%28%

23%

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§ Leading P/C insurer globally1

§ Top 5 in life business globally

§ Top 5 asset manager globally

§ Largest global assistance provider

§ Worldwide leader in credit insurance

§ One of the leading industrial insurers globally

§ Building the leading global automotive

provider

1) All rankings mentioned on the slide based on 2010 data

Market positions and brands

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Key developments in H1 20111

§ Strong operating profit despite crisis, slightly below previous year due to high NatCat and negative F/X impact

§ Total revenues EUR 54.5bn (-2.6%)

H1 § Operating profit EUR 4.0bn (-1.8%)

§ Shareholders’ equity EUR 42.6bn (-2.6%)

§ Net income EUR 2.0bn (-28.0%)

1) Percentage changes related to results of first half year 2010

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OutlookD

European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)C

Déjà vu – lessons from the crisisB

Allianz at a glanceAAgenda

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My slide shown at this conference in 2003

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10 years of streamlining

Russia: Acquisition of first stake in ROSNO

India: Start of JV between Allianz and Bajaj

September 11

Flood Central Europe

Internet bubble bursting

ICBC: investment and cooperation agreement

Minority buyout RAS

Announcement of major restructuring in Germany

Turkey: Acquisition of stake in insurance JV

Sale of Dresdner Bank (signing)

Merger of Euler & Hermes

Delisting NYSE

Rebranding AGFto Allianz France

Cominvest acquisition

Agreements with VW, Daimler& BMW

Initial CPIC investment

Acquisition ofDresdner Bank& DIT

Launch of "3+One"

Tsunami in Southeast Asia

Hurricanes in the U.S. and Caribbean

Conversion intoAllianz SE

SARS epidemic in Asia

Hurricane Katrina

Formation ofAllianz Global Risks

20102001 2002 2003 2004 2007 2008 200920062005

Minority buyout AGFand AZ LebenMerger andre-brandingItaly

Allianz InvestmentMgmt. (AIM)

Earthquake in China

Europeanstorm Kyrill

U.S. subprime mortgage crisis

Foundation of AGCS

Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers

TOM as partof “3+One”

EU initiates Solvency II process

Start of Sustainability Program and Customer Focus Initiative

ADAM becomes Allianz Global Investors

2011

10th anniversary acquisition PIMCO& 20th anniversary East Germany

Floods in AustraliaEarthquakes in New Zealand and Japan

Earthquakes in Chile and Haiti

Hartford investment

2nd war in Iraq Historically low interest rates

i2s

Acquisition of Munich Re stake inAllianz Leben

Political unrest in North AfricaEuropean sovereign debt crisis

Merger ofRussian OEs

RepositioningAGI

Simplificationof holding structures

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Non-controlling interests Combined ratio 10y Bund yield

Equity gearing5 Banking exposure Reinsurance governance

Allianz well positioned to capture upside potential

Stable operating profit1 range1

… with improved risk profile …3

1) Historical reported figures excluding Banking segment in EUR bn2) Financial Conglomerates Directive3) Share of Global Lines in operating profit

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011e

… and higher profit potential (EUR bn)4

Better starting position …2

Operating asset base

1,681

971

H1 20112004

37%

110%

H1 20112004 H1 20112004

9

108

20102004

0.2

1.2

FCD2 solvency ratio

180%120%

H1 20112004

Global Lines3

H1 20112005

36%

23%

Mega Cat

Cat bonds, Swaps Super Cat

Additional Group retention

Retentions of operating entities (OEs)

(RWA4 EUR bn)

(EUR bn)

6.3

6.9

9.0

10.1

7.5

7.2

8.2

8.0 ± 0.5

4) Risk Weighted Assets5) Net equity exposure after tax and policyholder participation as % of NAV

H1 2011

98.1%

H1 2011

3.5%

3.0%5 year average

5 year average

95.3%

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§ Regulatory capital excluding unrealizedgains on bonds, but including impairmentson Greek sovereign debt

§ Economic capital based on marked-to-market sovereign bond portfolio

§ Economic solvency calibrated to 3bps confidence level (Solvency II: 50bps)

§ All solvency ratios after 40% net incomedividend accrual

§ S&P and A.M. Best ratings affirmed in September 2011

FCDsolvencyratio

Economic solvency ratio

S&Prating

2002 2007 1H 2011

100%

100%

161%180%

191% 184%

n.a

n.a.

AAnegative

AAstable

AAstable

Sound regulatory/economic capital ratios …1Strongcapital

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… with moderate sensitivities

FCD solvency ratio

§ Equity gearing significantly reduced

§ Regulatory solvency ratio almost immune against interest rate and spread changes

§ Pro-cyclical banking segment discontinued

1H 2011

Equities -30%

Int. rates -100bp

IFRS S/H equity (EUR bn)

1H 2011

Equities -30%

Int. rates -100bp

Economic solvency ratio

1H 2011

Equities -30%

Int. rates -100bp

180%

167%

176%1

184%

171%

165%

42.6

39.4

46.3

100%

1Strongcapital

1) Lower FCD capital driven by change in DAC write-off (shadow DAC) and negative impact from reserve discounting

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Sound liquidity

1) Excluding opportunistic transactions 2) Amount may vary depending on prevailing regulatory conditions3) Modified duration to allow for asset overhang 4) ~ EUR -200mn impact of 100bps lower yield across all asset classes during first 12 months (excluding fair value changes)

§ Mid term financing completed1

- 2011 issuance covers maturities until 2015 - Attractive conditions and intelligent timing - Allianz CoCo structure offers additional

protection

§ Sensible maturity profile

§ Useful diversification between instruments

§ Over ~EUR 250bn group assets eligible as collateral with central banks2

§ Closely matched ALM structure

§ Stable liabilities with long duration profile

§ Limited interest rate sensitivity of operating earnings4

§ Stable surrender ratios in L/H

1Strongcapital

P/C

L/H

Group1

Assets Liabilities

4.71H115.52010

1H112010

1H112010

6.66.7

5.76.1

3.74.0

7.47.8

6.26.8

Duration3 (years)

Maturity structure(EUR bn)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2041

Per

petu

al

Senior bondsSubordinated bonds

1.5 1.5 1.5 2.01.0

5.5

2.5

0.9

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8.2

7.2

7.4

10.9

10.4

7.7

6.9

4.0

n.a.

4.5

4.1

3.5

5.5

3.8

2.0

1.8

1.5

We delivered … … thanks todiversification

Operating profit1 (EUR bn) and DPS (EUR)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

OP by business segment in %2

… in tough environment

iBoxx EUR overall asset swap spread in bp

5.2

-3.9

60.3

49.0

-3.5

-1.1

1.8

-8

9

11

12

7

60

58

54

54

55

73

49

47

45

23

21

21

22

26

15

34

31

31

16

12

14

12

12

12

17

22

240

0

0

0

1) Historical reported figures2) Based on historical reported figures excl.

Corporate segment and Conso. 2011: H1

115.02011e

79.2

Operating profitDividend per share P/C

L/HAM

Bank

Balanced portfolio stabilizes operating profit2Sustainableprofitability

8.0 ± 0.5

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EMU: Government bond yields EMU: 7-10 year corporate bond yields

Fixed income investment landscape: more than just German Bunds …

2Sustainableprofitability

Sources: Bloomberg, EcoWin

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010AAA rated BBB ratedGerman Pfandbrief

Investment grade

in % in %

Weighted average yield on 10-year EMU gvt. bondsYield on German 10-year government bonds

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20101.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

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Business in force New business

Based on aggregate policy reserves

Based on book value of assets

2.8%

… resulting in positive L/H margins despite low interest rates

2Sustainableprofitability

Based on aggregate policy reserves

1) Net of php; in stress scenario higher shareholder share possible2) Based on IFRS investment + underwriting result3) Based on IFRS current interest and similar income4) Weighted by aggregate policy reserves

GermanyReinvestmentyield of 1.5% sufficient to pay all guarantees

Harvesting and other

Underwriting and expenses

5.5%

4.9%

4.5% 4.5%

0.2%1

Ø guaranteeof new

business4

Reinvestmentyield F/I

01-06/2011

Total2return2010

Current3yield2010

Ø min. guarantee4

2010

0.2%

270bp

Covered bonds9ys mat., ~4.4%95% A or better

~30%

~30%

Government bonds10ys maturity, ~4.1%

80% A or better

ITA 11% EM

10%

FRA6%

Other13%

~40%

Corporate bonds 6ys mat., ~4.1%

92% BBB or better

~2.2%

200bp~4.2%

2012e~2.0%

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EUR 448.4bn

AAA 45%

AA 14%A 25%BBB 10%

Not rated3 4%

Cash / Other 2%EUR 6.8bn

Real estate 2%EUR 8.6bn

Equities 7%EUR 33.4bn

Debt instruments 89%EUR 399.6bn

Rating profile2

1) H1 2011, based on consolidated insurance portfolios (P/C, L/H), Corporate and other2) Excluding self-originated German private retail mortgage loans3) Mostly policyholder loans and registered debentures, all of investment grade quality

Non-investment grade 2%

High-quality investment portfolio

Conservative asset allocation1 High-quality fixed income portfolio

2Sustainableprofitability

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Absolute exposure

100% 100% 100%

Carrying value in %

of total investments

Unrealized loss (gross) in % of shareholders'

equity2

Unrealized loss(gross) in % ofrequired FCD solvency cap.2

Limited exposure to peripheral sovereign debt

-1,44436,442Total

-71829,157Italy

-7267,285Sub-total

-2805,077Spain

-6782Greece

-245780Portugal

-195646Ireland

Unrealized loss (gross)Carrying valueEUR mn

1H 2011

Relative exposure1

1.6%

8.1%

1.7%3.4%

2Sustainableprofitability

3.2%6.3%

All ratios before php

and tax!

1) Light grey ratios refer to total exposure (peripherals plus Italy)2) Ratios slightly overstated, because net unrealized losses are already deducted from S/H equity

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Crisis deserves attention, but don’t overlook the positive operative trend

2Sustainableprofitability

Property/Casualty§ Strong accident year profitability§ Higher retention of profitable business § Sound pricing momentum § Disciplined cycle management

Life /Health§ Consistent reserve growth§ Solid margins1

§ Attractively diversified business mix

Business Steering / Central Functions

Operations

DistributionProductsMarket

Management

0

100

200

300

400

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H 20110

20

40

60

80

100

Asset Management§ Strong growth momentum§ Consistent realization of economies of scale§ Solid outperformance

Corporate§ Target Operating Model implemented§ Improving operational leverage§ Progressive globalization of scalable businesses

1) Operating profit over average technical reserves

AY CR ex NatCatNet retention

85.0%

87.5%

90.0%

92.5%

95.0%

97.5%

100.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H 2011

3rd p. AuM (EUR bn) - IhsCIR (bps) - rhs

Technical reserves (EUR bn) - Ihs

OP margin1

(bps) - rhs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H 201152545658606264666870

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Continuing optimization of strategic portfolio

Divested anddiscontinued operations

Last 12 months§ Banking Hungary§ Banking Poland§ Alba (Switzerland)§ Phenix (Switzerland)§ Kazakhstan§ Life Japan1

Structuralimprovements

Last 12 months§ Russia (streamlining)§ Asset Management (repositioning)§ Streamlining of holding structures

Ongoing§ AGCS (portfolio consolidation)§ Latin America (back-office integration)§ FFIC (IT)§ Germany (P/C)

3Manageablecomplexity

1) Discontinuation of new business beginning January 2012

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OutlookD

European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)

C

Déjà vu – lessons from the crisisB

Allianz at a glanceAAgenda

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European sovereign debt crisis: high uncertainty and growing downside risks

§ Risk premiums reach record highs§ Rising tension in the interbank market§ Stock market crash§ Pace of economic growth in the

Euro area expected to decelerate

Government bond spreads over 10yr (German government bonds, % points)

Outsized downward pressure on bank shares

Source: EcoWin

Ireland

Italy

Greece

Portugal

Spain

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0May May

May

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Signs of stabilization in the Eurozone periphery

Economic stabilization in EMU periphery?GDP, index Q1 2008 = 100

Decreasing primary deficits reflect consolidation progress, primary balance*, as % of GDP

Shrinking current account deficits% of GDP

Lower labor costs in Portugal, Greece and IrelandTotal nominal hourly labor costs, index 2008=100

-20-18-16-14-12-10

-8-6-4-202

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p

*) net lending/borrowing excluding interest payments

Sources: Eurostat, EU Commission. 2011: own estimates.

Ireland Spain Greece Portugal

85

90

95

100

105

Q12008

Q3 Q12009

Q3 Q12010

Q3 Q12011

Q3

1.0-0.1Spain

-1.41.3Portugal

2.1-0.4Ireland

-5.3-4.4Greece

2011p2010

95

100

105

110

115

Q12008

Q2 Q32008

Q4 Q12009

Q2 Q32009

Q4 Q12010

Q2 Q32010

Q4 Q12011

Q2

*) working day adjusted except for Ireland

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Very low probabilityLow to medium probability

Eurozone scenarios: gradual fiscal integration or radical change

Medium to high probability

Discretionary decisionsand closer fiscal and

economic coordination

Political and fiscal union(including Eurobonds)

Dissolutionof EURO

New measures(Euro summit)

Ongoing slow growthand

painful fiscal consolidation

New measures(ECB interventions,EFSF, ESM tools)

prevent strong contagion

Economic stagnationor double dip recession

in 2012

Greek default and/orserious contagion of

bigger EMU countries(Spain, Italy)

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Leaving the EU is not the answer

Legal view Economic view

Extremely high funding costs

importexport

Devaluation of currency

Extreme pressure on banking system

Discontinuation of EU transfers

High tariffs for export in EU

NegativePositiveLikely impact on peripheral country leaving the EU

extremely arduous,

theoretical option only1

Secession

Expulsion

Euro and EUEuro onlyCountry leaves

1) Unanimous consent of all 27 member states required, including the leaving country itself

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Our proposal: the European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)

0%

100%

Investors’ exposure Insured by ESIM

Example 1 Example 2

EFSFESMfunds(EUR 440bn)

Leverage1

EUR ≥ 1.1tn

x 2.5

Advantages§ Committed funds leveraged up to 3.7 times1

§ Total coverage up to EUR 2.9tn2

§ Extension of program does not reduce available funds

§ Terms tailored to specific debtor situations

§ Selected allocation of funds (contrarian to Eurobonds)

§ (Re)enforcement of restructuring targets via pricing and allocation

§ Pricing determined by ESIM (not CDS)

§ Necessary support of banks still possible

§ Feasible within existing legal framework: quick implementation possible

§ Solution of Greek’s solvency problem via voluntary exchange of existing bonds into insured bonds above current market values but significantly below par

Inve

stor

10%

Investor10%

Investor50%

Investor50%

40% 40%

1) Lower coverage for selected countries increases leverage, e.g. to 3.7 with 40% coverage for Greece, Portugal and Ireland and 25% for Italy and Spain 2) Current guarantees given to EFSF leveraged via ESIM = EUR 780bn x 3.7 = EUR 2.9tn

EFSF (and subsequently ESM) acts as sovereign bond insurer for new funding and exchange offers

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OutlookD

European Sovereign Insurance Mechanism (ESIM)C

Déjà vu – lessons from the crisisB

Allianz at a glanceAAgenda

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Financial strength Competence Integrity

Priorities

Attr

act &

dev

elop

bes

t tal

entCapitalization Capital

allocationCash

generation Rating

Cycle-management

Pensionopportunity

Multi-channeldistribution

BRIC + Global Lines

Efficiencyimprovement

Riskmanagement

Investmentstrategy Diversification

Capitalmanagement

Operatingprofitability

Growth

Our strategic priorities

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§ Revenues at EUR 27bn§ EUR 2.1bn net inflows

§ EUR 34bn net inflows§ CIR 59.0%

§ Please mind the seasonality of the business and our disclaimer1!

§ Exceptionally high NatCat§ CR 98.1%

§ As expected

Total

L/H

AM

Co

P/C 2.04.2 – 4.8

1.42.2 – 2.8

1.1

-0.4

4.0

EUR 7.5 – 8.5 bn operating profit expected in 2011

Operating profit (EUR bn)

-0.9 – -1.1

1) Disclaimer: Impact from NatCat, financial markets and global economic development not predictable!

H1 2011 Outlook published 02/11 H1 2011

8.57.5

8.0

1.8 – 2.2

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Short-selling ban limited to FRA, ITA, SPA, BEL only

Recent stock performance driven by technicalities

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream

Relative performance Allianz versus STOXX Europe 600 Insurance

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

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Summary: Allianz well positioned

Resilient and well diversified business model

High-quality investment portfolio

Strong market positions and brands

Strong capital base

EUR 7.5bn – 8.5bn operating profit expected in 2011

Well positioned for the

“New Normal”

Page 31: Allianz Presentation ML Oct 11

Appendix

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Investor Relations contacts

Oliver SchmidtHead of Investor Relations

Phone +49 89 [email protected]

Peter Hardy

Phone +49 89 [email protected]

Holger Klotz

Phone +49 89 [email protected]

Reinhard Lahusen

Phone +49 89 [email protected]

Christian Lamprecht

Phone +49 89 [email protected]

Stephanie AldagIR Events

Phone +49 89 [email protected]

Investor Relations

Fax +49 89 [email protected]

Internet

(English): www.allianz.com/investor-relations(German): www.allianz.com/ir

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Financial calendar

November 11, 2011 3rd quarter results 2011

February 23, 2012 Financial press conference for the 2011 fiscal year

February 24, 2012 Analysts’ conference for the 2011 fiscal year

March 23, 2012 Annual Report 2011

May 9, 2012 Annual General Meeting

May 15, 2012 Interim Report 1st quarter 2012

August 3, 2012 Interim Report 2nd quarter 2012

November 9, 2012 Interim Report 3rd quarter 2012

The German Securities Trading Act ("Wertpapierhandelsgesetz") obliges issuers to announce immediately any information which may have a substantial price impact, irrespective of the communicated schedules. Therefore we cannot exclude that we have to announce key figures of quarterly and fiscal year results ahead of the dates mentioned above. As we can never rule out changes of dates, we recommend checking them on the Internet at www.allianz.com/financialcalendar.

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Disclaimer

These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking StatementsThe statements contained herein may include statements of future

expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based

on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known

and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results,

performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or

implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forward-

looking by reason of context, the words “may”, “will”, “should”, “expects”,

“plans”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”,

“potential”, or “continue” and similar expressions identify forward-looking

statements. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially

from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic

conditions, including in particular economic conditions in the Allianz Group’s

core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets,

including emerging markets, and including market volatility, liquidity and

credit events (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events,

including from natural catastrophes and including the development of loss

expenses, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency

levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency

exchange rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing

levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, including monetary

convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies

of central banks and/ or foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions,

including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures, and (xiv)

general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/ or

global basis. Many of these factors may be more likely to occur, or more

pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The

company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

No duty to updateThe company assumes no obligation to update any information

contained herein.