algorithmic trading - ppfas
TRANSCRIPT
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Algorithmic TradingAnd the Future of Investing
Parijat Garg, CFA
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© Parijat Garg, CFA
Myths
● Algo trading has to be fully automated, requires high performance
computers and very intense programming
● Algo trading carries very high/very low risk
● Algo trading is pure arbitrage
● Algo trading involves front-running
● Algo trading cannot do as well as value investing
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What Is It
An rules-based objective process to generate buy and sell decisions
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Why It Works● Objective systems are less prone to behavioral mistakes
● Back-test-ability
● Ideas are often scalable and replicable across markets and asset classes
● Improvements accumulate because no need to train humans (like AI) but
they also get arbed away (unlike typical AI solutions)
● Speed advantage
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Strategies
Directional Long/Short
Market-Making Arbitrage
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Inputs
Daily Market DataFundamental
DataMacroeconomic
Data
NewsHigh Frequency
DataAlternative Data
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Arrange for data
Decide on Risk Limits
Backtest
Putting It Together
Choose asset class and universe
Choose type of strategy and inputs
Hypothesize an alpha
Paper Trade?Go Live
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In theory...
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A Real Strategy
Momentum Long/Short
1. Universe: Large-cap Indian stocks
2. Strategy Type: Long/Short
3. Alpha: Momentum (Buy the winners, sell the losers)
4. Data: Monthly returns
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In practice...
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© Parijat Garg, CFA
A Real Strategy
Momentum Long/Short
1. Universe: Large cap stocks
2. Strategy Type: Long/Short
3. Alpha: Momentum (Buy the winners, sell the losers)
4. Data: Monthly returns
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© Parijat Garg, CFA
The Anatomy of HFT
Exchange ServersTrading Computer
Exchange Co-location
On-Premises/On-Cloud Storage and Compute
Modeling
Sim
ulatio
n
OptimizationData
Strategy
Mkt Data
Orders
Live data feeds from other exchanges
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Risks
Operational
(KCG)
Regulatory
(Speedbumps)
Financial / Model
(LTCM)
Human / Behavioral
(RenTec)
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Tales From The Field
KCG loses $440 million
Link
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Tales From The Field
Renaissance’s Medallion Fund Amasses Annual Returns of 66%
Before Fees (of 5/44) Link
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Investing vs Trading
What are the inputs and what is the holding period
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A Different Kind of Algo
Your screener as an investing algo
1. Universe: BSE 500 Companies
2. Strategy Type: Long Only
3. Alpha: High quality and low valuation (ROCE > 15%, P/B < 2)
4. Data: Quarterly Financials and Stock Price
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Algo Trading vs. Investing
Universe of securities
Screener / Scorer
Discretionary Portfolio
Manual Adjustments, Scuttlebutt, Subjective Judgement
Algorithmic Portfolio
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It’s all about Base Rates
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© Parijat Garg, CFA
Algo Trading vs. Investing
Universe of securities
Screener / Scorer
Discretionary Portfolio
Manual Adjustments, Scuttlebutt, Subjective Judgement
Algorithmic Portfolio
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What’s Being Automated
1. ESG: Assessment of metrics across all of E S and G (eg: SASB)
2. Accounting Shenanigans: Much deeper analysis
3. Public Perception: Using social media monitoring
4. Scuttlebutt: Analysis of export-import data, Nielsen reports, litigation
5. Management Quality: Automated analysis of earnings calls, annual
reports for management focus and reliability
6. And more...
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The Duality
DatasetAvailability
Ability to Analyze
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Tales From The Field
Foursquare predicts Chipotle’s earnings two weeks in advance
Link
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Tales From The Field
Quandl is selling daily estimates of car sales by model and
manufacturer Link
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Tales From The Field
Orbital Insights uses daily photographs of the entire planet to
drive insightsLink
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How to get started
Validate Your Screens
Analyse Drivers of Portfolio Returns
Codify Your Decision Rules
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Photo Credit: Kristoffer Tripplaar/Alamy
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Are You Thinking“Long-Term”?
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Image Credits, via www.flaticon.com licensed under CC 3.0 BYThanks to: Eucalyp, Gregor Cresnor, Pause08, SimpleIcon,