alcatel-lucent's marcus weldon at commsday summit 2014
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COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
DEFINING THE FUTURE OF NETWORKS
MARCUS WELDON,Bell Labs President and ALU Corporate CTOApril 2014
COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
THE CLOUDSHIFT…
…IS HAPPENING
Optimize:
• Fixed Costs
• Financials
• Portfolio
COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
THE CHALLENGEWEBSCALE & ENTERPRISE
TAM
1B SESSIONS DELIVERED
WEBSCALE VALUE
CREATION
CLOUD SERVICES
SERVICE PROVIDER
TAM
4
COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
AND THE WORLD IS CHANGING FASTER THAN EVER
By 2018, U.S. consumers will upload more data on
Smartphones + Tablets than they did on laptops in 2013
(VNI)
US Mobile data revenue reached $90 billion in 2013 =
> 50 % of revenues for wireless companies in Q4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
YEARS AFTER INTRODUCTION
CUMULATIVEUNITS
1.5B TABLETS (2017)
2B WEARABLES (2018)
6.5B M2M CONNECTIONS (2017)
6.5M CLOUD SERVERS (2015)
0.5B SDN INVESTMENT (2013)
COPYRIGHT © 2014 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
NETWORK OPERATORS
Assets: Ultrabroadband AccessNew Services: Limited and ClosedE/R: Increasing Network spend, flat revenueInnovation Speed: Years
WEBSCALE OPERATORS
Assets: Massive global compute and storageNew Services: Limited but Open APIs to Web E/R: Increasing DC spend, growing revenueInnovation Speed: Days
IP TECHNOLOGIES IT TECHNOLOGIES
THE OPPORTUNITY
6COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — CONFIDENTIAL — SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW — PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY
INSTRUCTION
THE FUTURE: SOLVING THE RADIO CAPACITY PROBLEM
2x
>10x2x
MORESPECTRUM
(Hz)
MORE SPECTRAL
EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz)
MORE SPATIAL
EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/User)
WIRELESSCAPACITY
THE FUTURE OF WIRELESS IS SMALL....AND WIRED (CONVERGED)
10x more
3x more3x more
5G
0
2
4
6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Average Usage (GB/ Mo/ User) Strategy2017
GB/Mo
Growth
from 2012
Alternative Bus. Models 4.9 14x
Smart Loading 4.5 12x
Small Cells 3.8 10x
4G 2.1 6x
2G/3G 0.5G 1.3x
7COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — CONFIDENTIAL — SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW — PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY
INSTRUCTION
THE FUTURE: THE ECONOMICS OF WIRELESS ULTRABROADBAND
Conservative Growth Model
LTE, SMALL CELLS (inc. WIRELINE) ARE KEY TO FUTURE LEADERSHIP AND PROFITABILITY
Bell Labs Modeling
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0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
1
10
20
50
75
100
300
500
1000
0.1 – 0.5
100
ADSL2+
Bonded ADSL2+
VSDL2
VDSL2 + Vectoring
Bonded VDSL2 + Vectoring
1 GPON/G.Fast
CO-Home Distance (km)
Node-Home Distance (km)
Mbps per subscriber
LOWEST COST PER MBPS/SUB
THE FUTURE: THE WIRELINE ANSWER
DS/US ratio
LOWEST COST PER MBPS/SUB
1 25
5
10
20
50
80
100
120
150
300
500
1000 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 12 14
DOCSIS 3.1 (WITH NODE SPLITS)
FTTLA
FTTH (GPON)
Mbps per subscriber
(DS)
10-20x
5x2x
MORESPECTRUM(Hz)
MORE SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz)
MORESPATIAL EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/User)
WIRELINECAPACITY
Bell Labs
Modeling
THE FUTURE OF WIRELINE IS DEEP FIBER... AND SHORT COPPER LOOPS
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CREATE & MANAGE VIRTUAL NETWORK FUNCTIONS (VNFs)
CREATE & EXPOSE VIRTUAL PRIVATE
NETWORKS(OF VNFs AND PNFs)
THE REVOLUTION: SOFTWARE-DEFINED NETWORKS
NFVSDN
SCALE THE NETWORK
SCALE THE BUSINESS
AND NETWORK FUNCTION VIRTUALIZATION
10
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Virtualization Value Factor
Value
Dynamic
Control
Gain
Elastic scaling Greater ability to react to changing demand
Faster deployment cycles
Shorter time to market for new apps/SW releases
Domain-specific network slicing/control
Better network re-use and OAM/fault isolation
Cost Gain
Lower CapEx + OpEx (TCO) Depends on Application
WHY & WHEN NFV ?
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COST GAIN
CORE ROUTERS& 100G+
SWITCHES
FTTx, RF,COHERENTOPTICAL,
CMTS
EDGEROUTERS
RADIOACCESS
NETWORK
PACKET GATEWAYS
MEDIA GATEWAYS
MEDIA SERVERS& CDN CPE
NETWORKAPPLIANCES
NETWORKAPPS (IMS)
ANALYTICSPLATFORMS
CHARGINGAPPLICATIONS
NFV/SDNCONTROL
OSS/BSS
EMS/NMS
MORELESS
LOW
HIGH
DYNAMICCONTROL
GAIN
CONTROL PLANEFUNCTIONS
YES
MAYBE
NEVER
WHY & WHEN NFV ?
NOW
WHY NFV ?
Application A
Application B
NETWORK PROVIDER “DATA CENTER”
SWITCH
MEMORY
PHYSICAL INTERFACES
STORAGE
COMPUTEApplication C
SERVER CARD
SERVER
Application(s) ‘X’
SERVER
SERVER
SERVER
SERVER
TOR
SERVER
IT DATA CENTER
APP
VM
VSWITCH
HYPERVISOR
VIRTUALIZED APPLICATION
13
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WHY SDN ?
TOR TOR TOR TOR
ANY NETWORK ANY NETWORK
…APP
APP
NPNP NPNPNP
Automatic, Optimized IP Networking & TransportMassive (Ms of VMs) ScalabilityNo VM limitationsAny User IP @Multi-tenant Security
WAN
APP
APP APP
NPNPNP
CLOUD PLATFORM
SDNCONTROLLE
R
APPAPP
APP
I’m here and I’m App
X
X
GLOBAL NETWOR
K
14COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — CONFIDENTIAL — SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW — PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY
INSTRUCTION
STARTING POINT: SEPARATE NETWORKS
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THE START OF …
THE NEXT WAVE
SDN EnabledL2 CPE
SDN EnabledL2 CPE
Base Station w/L1
SDN Enabled(Small/L1) Access
Node
vBNG
vSGWvSGWvSGWvPGW
TOR
vBNG
…
……VINE Node
vCPE
vCPE vPEvFANvFAN
TOR
vCPE
… …vRAN
vRANvRAN vRANvRAN
TOR
vRANvCDN
vCDN vCDNvCDNvCDN
TOR
vCDN
VINE SDN CONTROLLER
Virtualized Integrated Network
Edge
WAN SDN CONTROLLER
DC SDN CONTROLLER
SDN Enabled Router
SDN-Enabled OLT
SDN Enabled Packet-Optical
Node
Core Router
InternetAccess Metro Core
Fixed, Mobile & Enterprise Service Core
(IMS/VoLTE, AAA, OSS/BSS)
vPE Router
Enterprise DC
L2 CPE
Federation
Federation
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TECHNOLOGY & ARCHITECTURE
SHIFTSITIP
OPTICALIP
WIRELINEWIRELESS
DYNAMICSTATIC
OPENCLOSED
DISTRIBUTEDCENTRALIZED
17
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GREATNESS IN AND BY SOLVING REAL WORLD ‘10X’ CHALLENGES
BELL LABS: STILL INVENTING THE FUTURE
18COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — CONFIDENTIAL — SOLELY FOR AUTHORIZED PERSONS HAVING A NEED TO KNOW — PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY
INSTRUCTION
THE TIME IS NOW