alaska economic update 2021
TRANSCRIPT
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Alaska Economic Update 2021Identifying opportunities from the COVID pandemic
May 2021
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Alaska’s Economy
Mark EdwardsExecutive Vice President Chief Credit Officer & Bank Economist
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Impacts of COVID one year later
The Alaska Economy in 2020
Payroll jobs declined 8.5% in 2020
Gross State Product declined 4.9%
Billions in federal aid came quickly to support the economy
Per Capita Income increased 3.1%
Interest rates fell to record levels
Housing prices and the number of units sold increased
Oil prices & production fell, but rebounded to healthy levels
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COVID Hurts the Workforce
Alaska Job Impact – March 2021 The 8.5% job loss in 2020 has moderated to 6.9% in March of 2021
295,000 jobs in March 2021 is 21,900 fewer than March of 2020
Tourism and Hospitality down 23% March year over year, -7,200
Direct Oil & Gas jobs fell 36% March YoY, -3,600
Transportation, Warehouse, Utilities down 10%, - 2,000
Professional & Business Services declined 9.1%, -2,500
State government was only sector to grow 0.9% or +200 jobs
Alaska Department of Labor
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Economic output of goods and services
Alaska Gross State Product - 2020 Alaska’s GSP declined -4.9%, U.S. -3.5%, Hawaii -8%
Alaska’s total GSP was $52.1 billion
GSP declined -6% in 1st quarter and -34% in 2nd quarter
GSP sharp increase of +32% in 3rd quarter and +6% in 4th quarter
Most impacted were Transportation & Warehousing, Accommodation & Food Services, Oil & Gas, and Health Care
Alaska’s 4th quarter 2020 growth was 9th best of 50 U.S. states
Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Personal Income 2020
Alaska’s Personal Income $47.4 billion Alaska’s $64,780 per capita income was 9th best of 50 U.S. states
A $1.1 trillion increase in government transfer payments more than offset lost wages and investment income across the county
Personal Income
Federal Bureau of Economic Analysis
2020 vs. 2019 Alaska United States
Wages - 435 million + 35 billion
Dividends, Interest, Rents - 65 million - 41 billion
Government Transfer Payments + 1,920 million + 1,143 billion
Total Personal Income change + 1,420 million + 1,137 billion
Total % change annualized + 3.1% + 6.1%
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Oil and Gas Activity
Alaska North Slope Oil Prices 2020 - 2021
Alaska Department of Revenue
20212020
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1-4 Unit Residential Properties
Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates
U.S. Mortgage Bankers Survey
4Q 2019 3Q 2020 4Q 2020
Alaska Delinquencies 2.85% 6.78% 6.21%
U.S. Delinquencies 4.07% 7.60% 7.19%
Alaska Foreclosures 0.63% 0.49% 0.45%
U.S. Foreclosures 0.78% 0.59% 0.56%
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Prices and units sold up in most markets
Housing Market StatewideComparing 2019 to 2020
Average Sales Price
Number of Units Sold
Anchorage + 5.9% + 19.5%
Mat-Su + 9.9% + 9.7%
Fairbanks NSB - 0.3% - 20%
Kenai Peninsula + 8.6% + 11.3%
Kodiak - 1.6% + 17.7%
Alaska MLS
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30 year Conventional Interest Rates
Historically Low Mortgage Rates
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Company
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18% 16.6% in 1981
April 20213%
8.1% in 2000
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Rising Prices
Signs of Inflation A rapid increase in the money supply from COVID stimulus is starting to
cause inflationary pressure
CPI rose + 2.6% between March of 2020 and March of 2021
Clothing - 2.5%Transportation - 1.6%
Energy +13.2%Used cars + 9.8%Food + 3.5%Housing + 1.7%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Global trade disorder
Supply Chain Disruptions Much lower workforce productivity from millions unemployed
International trade hampered from differing COVID rules
Many companies were not technologically prepared for change
Government permitting and regulatory approval slowed
Winter storms like Texas hurt chemical production and manufacturing
Cargo shipping had embarrassing setbacks
Led to high commodity prices and low product availability worldwide
Possible Economic Ramifications
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0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
1 mo. 6 mo. 1 year 2 year 5 year 10 year 30 year
------ April 30, 2020------ April 30, 2021
1.28%
2.3%
0.64%
1.65%
0.86%
0.36%
Steepening Yield Curve After 2 years
U.S. Treasury Rates
Federal Reserve Bank
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Stay Positive
Summary Thoughts Large job losses & GDP declines, yet house prices and income rose
Trillions in stimulus money helped avert economic disaster
Tax increases, higher interest rates and inflation are expected
An economic rebound is occurring, consumers are flush with cash
Demand is strong, but global supply chains are disorganized
Health restrictions are easing and the jobs picture is improving
Nimble companies with good IT and financial resources will do well
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Opportunities Exist
Mike HustonExecutive Vice President Chief Lending Officer
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Consider how a challenged economy could affect your industry. Some sectors will snap-back with pent up demand
Other businesses will languish and change dramatically
Be open to adapting to the changing environment
Operating in a new economic reality
Prepare to SurThriveOvercome challenges & seize opportunities
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Financial Resources Small Business Administration
www.sba.gov
US Department of Treasury
www.home.treasury.gov
Alaska Small Business Development Center
www.aksbdc.org
Trade Organizations
Prepare to SurThriveOvercome challenges & seize opportunities
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Make competitive and strategic planning decisions Low interest rates
Opportunities for acquiring assets at a discount
Disruptions often create opportunities
Operating in a new economic reality
Prepare to SurThriveOvercome challenges & seize opportunities
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Northrim Bank Forbes Best-in-State 2020