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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Syria-5

06.28, Boots on the Ground Turkey Plans to Send Troops Into Syria, Widening the War The Turkish military is not enthusiastic and Washington may have its doubts, but President Erdogan appears determined to set up a buffer zone.

A Saudi newspaper claimed that Turkey is paving the ground for military intervention in Syria amid the Syrian army and Kurdish forces' united operations to defend their lands against the ISIL in the Northeastern city of HasakaA quiet meeting this past March in Saudi Arabia, and a recent anonymous leak from the Israeli military, set the stage for what may be a new and wider war in the Middle East.

The pact prioritized the defeat of the Damascus regime over the threat posed by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and aims to checkmate Iranian influence in the region.

The Saudis have pushed the argument that Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are really about Iranian expansionism and the age-old clash between Sunni and Shiite Muslims.

An Israeli attack on Hezbollah, however, would almost certainly re-ignite Lebanon's civil war, while bolstering the power of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

"Every power in the Middle East has tried to harness the power of the Islamists to their own end," says Joshua Landis, director of Middle Eastern Studies at Oklahoma University. But "it always seems to blow back."

The Afghan mujahedeen created the Taliban and al-Qaeda, the U.S. invasion of Iraq spawned the Islamic State, and Libya has collapsed into a safe haven for radical Islamist groups of all stripes.

While it hard to imagine a Middle East more chaotic than it is today, if the Army of Conquest succeeds in overthrowing the Assad government, and Israel attacks Lebanon, "chaos" will be an understatement.

A new Islamist coalition called the Army of Conquest (Jaysh al-Fateh) According to a Jabhat al-Nusra source, the alliance controls in between 12,000-

15,000 fighters. [2] The coalition includes most importantly al-Qaeda’s Syrian front, Jabhat al-Nusra, which is led by Abu Muhammed al-Julani. Moreover, it also includes other Islamist rebel groups such as Jund al-Aqsa, Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Haqq, Jaysh al-Sunna, Ajnad al-Sham and Faylaq al-Sham

In a series of statements released through social media, various units of the Southern Front of the Free Syrian Army have stated that they will not work with the Jaish al-Fateh (Army of Conquest) coalition, due to the presence of “takfiri” fighters, mainly referring to al-Qaeda-linked Al-Nusra Front (JAN).

Jun 28, 2015 Arab Media: Turkey Preparing for Military Intervention in Northeastern Syria. TEHRAN (FNA)- A Saudi newspaper claimed that Turkey is paving the ground for military intervention in Syria amid the Syrian army and Kurdish forces' united operations to defend their lands against the ISIL in the Northeastern city of Hasaka. The London-based al-Hayat newspaper reported on Sunday that 12,000 Turkish forces are ready for military intervention in Syria under the pretext of creating a buffer zone to protect the Turkish borders against the threat of the terrorist groups.It also added that the Kurdish forces deployed in Hasaka have joined the Syrian government forces to fight against the ISIL terrorists in the Eastern parts of the country. The Syrian government confirmed on Saturday that the army troops have secured Hasaka, rejecting reports that the ISIL terrorists are still in control of the main buildings there. The Syrian

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government issued a statement yesterday, saying that Hasaka is now safe and the army soldiers are cleansing the city from the remnants of the Takfiri militants. The statement added that the terrorists tried to sneak into the city for several times, but the Syrian forces hunted them down. It also denied a report that a major prison in Hasaka was attacked by the terrorist group, saying that the facility in Ghweiran District is under the control of government forces.   Chief of Hasakah Police Department General Hasib al-Tahan told SANA that neighborhoods on Hasakah outskirts which were claimed to have been captured by ISIL, including Ghweiran, al-Aziziyeh and al-Salehiyeh, are “all safe.”The ISIL Takfiri terrorists currently control shrinking swathes of Syria and Iraq. They have threatened all communities, including Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Christians, Ezadi Kurds and others, as they continue their atrocities in Iraq. Senior Iraqi officials have blamed Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and some Persian Gulf Arab states for the growing terrorism in their country. The ISIL has links with Saudi intelligence and is believed to be indirectly supported by the Israeli regime.

Jun 28, 2015 Syria: Army Repels Terrorists’ Attack on Strategic Military Airport in East TEHRAN (FNA)- The Syrian army repelled Takfiri terrorist attacks in multiple fronts on a strategic military airport in Eastern Syria on Sunday. The army units thwarted the ISIL's large-scale attacks on Deir Ezzur military airport in Eastern Syria, FNA dispatches said.The Syrian military sources announced that the ISIL terrorists have intensified their attacks on the city of Deir Ezzur in recent days. "The terrorists' attacks mainly focused on Deir Ezzur military airport that the ISIL has tried to capture for several months now," the military sources said. Last Friday, the Syrian army made military gains in the Deir Ezzur as Takfiri terrorists started withdrawing from the Eastern province. The army units backed by popular National Defense Forces made considerable advances in the regions in the Eastern parts of Deir Ezzur military airport, killing tens of ISIL terrorists. The Syrian army destroyed a large number of hideouts of the ISIL terrorist group in Deir Ezzur. The army troops also destroyed the armored vehicles of the terrorists. On Thursday, the Syrian warplanes destroyed the terrorists' weapons stockpile in Deir Ezzur city, leaving tens of terrorists dead and dozens more injured. The ISIL terrorists' arms depot was ruined in the Syrian airstrikes in the main street of Deir Ezzur. The local sources confirmed that tens of the ISIL terrorists were killed and dozens more were injured during the airstrikes in Deir Ezzur.

Kurds secure Syria's Kobani as Islamic State targets northeast Sun Jun 28, 2015 3:31pm BST Related: WORLD, SYRIA, MIDDLE EAST Syrian Kurdish fighters said they had fully secured the town of Kobani near the Turkish border on Saturday and killed more than 60 Islamic State militants, two days after the hardline group launched an incursion with suicide bombers.Further east, Islamic State pressed another assault on government-held areas of Hasaka city, clashing with the Syrian army after blowing up a security building late on Friday and triggering a government appeal for residents to take up arms. "The people of the governorate and its surroundings continue to sign up with the Syrian Arab Army in its fight against terror," state television said in a news flash on Saturday and played archive footage of soldiers set to rousing music. Hasaka's governor described the situation as "fine" but also called on residents to defend it in a phone call with state TV. The twin assaults on Kobani and Hasaka came after Islamic State suffered two weeks of defeats at the hands of Kurdish-led forces, supported by U.S.-led air strikes. Redur Xelil, spokesman for the Kurdish YPG militia, said Kobani was quiet and the YPG was combing the town for any hidden Islamic State fighters. The YPG blew up a school building used by Islamic State in the town earlier on Saturday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said, and plumes of smoke could be

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seen from the Turkish side of the border rising into the air. The Observatory said a U.S-led airstrike killed at least 18 Islamic State fighters near Kobani. Islamic State killed around 200 civilians since the assault which started on Thursday, the Observatory said, describing it as one of the worst massacres committed by the group in Syria.BATTLE FOR HASAKA CITY, In Syria's northeast, Kurdish forces and the army fought separate battles with the group around the city overnight. The YPG's Xelil said the Kurds were not fighting with Islamic State on Saturday. The Observatory said fierce battles continued in the southwest, south and southeast on Saturday.Islamic State launched its offensive on government-held areas of Hasaka on Thursday and the United Nations says the violence is estimated to have displaced up to 120,000 people. "We want to reassure people in the governorate...Hasaka is fine," Governor Mohammad Zaal al-Ali told state TV but also echoed a government call for people to come back and defend their homes alongside the army. "All of the people of the governorate who want to, pick up arms to defend it," he added. He said the air force had been carrying out frequent bombardments against Islamic State.Hasaka province is important because it sits between Islamic State-held territory in Syria and Iraq and reaches north to the Turkish border. The city is divided into areas run separately by President Bashar al-Assad's government and Kurdish authorities. The assault will test the army's capacity to hold on to areas far from the major government-held cities in the west. The YPG, which controls northern parts of the city, says it does not cooperate with government forces.Islamic State said in statements posted online on Saturday it had attacked areas east of the city and in a video posted on YouTube said it had entered western areas. Late on Friday Damascus called on Hasaka residents to take up arms in defence. "I call on every man, every young woman and every young man able to carry weapons to move immediately and join the frontline positions to defend the city," Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi said on state television.

Syrian rebels split over coalition al-Qaeda Alex MacDonald Monday 22 June 2015 The Syrian opposition has split over the presence of al-Qaida affiliated groups in one of the most prominent opposition coalitions. In a series of statements released through social media, various units of the Southern Front of the Free Syrian Army have stated that they will not work with the Jaish al-Fateh (Army of Conquest) coalition, due to the presence of “takfiri” fighters, mainly referring to al-Qaeda-linked Al-Nusra Front (JAN). Four units - Firqat Fallujah Houran, Alawiyat Seif al-Sham, 24th regiment, and the First League - all announced their refusal to work with Jaish al-Fateh, who have just launched a ‘Southern Region’ branch to operate in the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra. The 24th regiment "refuse military or ideological co-operation, or co-operation of any kind, with any extremist faction that promotes takfirist ideology" referring to the Islamic practice of "takfir" whereby one Muslim condemns another Muslim as a non-Muslim. However, another unit, Liwa al-Shaheed al-Aqeed Ahmad al-Omar, apparently broke from the other groups and announced its intention to join the coalition. Jaish al-Fateh has been one of the most effective fighting forces among the Syrian opposition, driving Bashar al-Assad’s forces almost entirely out of the northern province of Idlib after seizing the strategically important city of Jisr al-Shoughour in March. A large number of organisations have affiliated to the coalition's various regional incarnations, including Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Islam and the Sham Legion.

Though it has fought both IS and the Assad government, the presence of groups that follow the ideology of, or take orders directly from, the al-Qaeda leadership - such as JAN and

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Jund al-Aqsa - has made both other opposition fighters, and other international powers, particularly the US, wary of lending support. The Southern Front’s hostility could also infuriate Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar who have reportedly been Jaish al-Fateh’s main foreign supporters providing tactical, financial and political support. Although virtually every opposition group in Syria has refused to work with the Islamic State (IS) due to its violence and imposition of authority against other opposition leaders, there has been a much more mixed response to JAN. In particular, the recent report that 20 Druze civilians had been killed by JAN in Idlib provoked an angry response from the Southern Front who have been trying to draw Druze support in Sweida province. Officials from the Southern Front previously told Middle East Eye of their opposition to JAN’s influence. “We are not working with them, and they are not allowed to work with us,” said Major Essam al-Rayes, the group's spokesperson. Since the beginning of the uprising against the Assad government in 2011, many of Syria's minorities have suffered displacement and ethnic cleansing at the hands of groups like IS and Al-Nusra Front. While some minorities, such as the Alawites, have thrown their weight behind the Assad government - seeing it as their only protection against "takfiri" groups - others such as Druze and Christians have been more divided with some remaining neutral and some siding with the opposition.

Nusra Front takes control of Syria's northwestern Idlib provinceAl Qaeda affiliate, the Nusra Front has taken over all of the Idlib province. The area lies on Syria's border with Turkey and is adjacent to the regime-controlled Latakia region. A coalition of Syrian militias led by the Nusra Front took control of the city of Ariha in the country's northwest, the last stronghold of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in the Idlib province. "There are heavy clashes between the army and the terrorists of Jabahat al Nusra who infiltrated inside the city," the army said in a statement on television. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the news, referring to the coalition of Nusra Front and other rebels. "Jaish al Fatah [the Army of Conquest] took full control of the city of Ariha, which is located at the southern sector of the city of Idlib, in addition to the towns of Kafyre and al Foua and the Abu al Dohour military airport," the observatory said. Ariha was the last government-controlled city in Idlib,on Syria's border with Turkey and was located on the main army supply lines between Idlib and Latakia, controlled by the regime and President Bashar al-Assad's home. The Nusra Front is affiliated to al Qaeda and is a major force against President Bashar al-Assad's army in the northern city of Aleppo. Its fighters have occupied several parts of the country's south and frequently clash with the Islamic State.

15,000 troops deployed by Iran to combat Al Qaeda affiliate group in SyriaBeirut: Iran has despatched 15,000 fighters to Syria to help government troops reverse recent battlefield defeats to a rebel-Jihadi coalition, reported Lebanon's Daily Star newspaper on Thursday citing a source. The force, made up of Iranians, Iraqis and Afghanis arrived in the Damascus area and in the coastal province of Latakia, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's heartland, according to the Lebanese political source. The commander of Iran’s elite Quds force, Qasem Soleimani, was in Latakia this week to shore up preparations for the campaign and promised a “surprise” from Tehran and Damascus, the source said. The militia is expected to spearhead an effort to seize areas of Latakia's neighbouring province of Idlib, where pro-Assad forces have come under increasing pressure in recent months from a seven-member coalition of rebels and have suffered a string of defeats.The rebel coalition includes the powerful Ahrar al-Sham militia and the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. Assad agreed reluctantly to the Iranian plan, which the source said is expected to achieve successes by the end of the month and to boost flagging morale among

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pro-government forces in the wake of battlefield defeats and high casualties. End-June is the deadline for Iran and world powers to finalise an interim deal on Tehran’s nuclear programme and Syrian army successes would improve Tehran’s leverage in the region, the source said. The government of Assad, an Alawite Shia Muslim, is heavily dependent on assistance from Iran. The US led coalition against IS has been heavily criticised for failing to halt the Islamic State jihadi group's capture of the ancient city of Palmyra in Homs province in May, and more recently their campaign against rebel groups in northern Aleppo province.

 US ‘Concerned’ as Yemeni Govt Sends al-Qaeda Financier to Peace Talks Delegate Is on US Terror Blacklist for AQAP Activities, by Jason Ditz, June 18, 2015 The US State Department today is expressing serious concerns about the Geneva peace talks for Yemen, not about the shoe throwing brawls, but about the al-Qaeda financier on the delegation of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. The man, Abdel-Wahab Humayqani, was included in the delegation over US objections. He has been on the US blacklist of terrorists since 2013, and was accused of being behind a series of car bombings in 2012 that killed seven people. Humayqani has been accused by the Treasury Department of using a series of charity fronts to funnel money to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a charge he denies, insisting he is simply a politician for the National Dialogue faction. The Hadi government is being backed by the Saudis in their war against Yemen, a war that the US has played a supporting role in. Though Hadi has historically been seen as a US puppet, this latest dispute may suggest a growing disconnect.

ISIS beheaded an al-Qaeda leader in its de facto Syrian capitalTwitter/Isis/IBTimes ISIS militants behead a senior Nusra leader in Raqqa, a senior leader of Syrian offshoot of Al Qaeda - Jabhat al-Nusra - in Raqqa. The slain Jabhat al-Nusra leader was identified as Abde Al-Bara Al Iraqi. The execution was carried out on 15 June in al Na'im. UK-based monitoring group Syrian Observatory For Human Rights, confirming the reports of execution, said it has received a video showing the beheading of the Nusra leader. In the video, the Nusra leader is shown kneeling on the ground, while an executioner brandishing a sword says that he was being beheaded for opposing and fighting the Isis.  A crowd of onlookers, including young children, witnessed the beheading, SOHR added.Nusra Front and Islamic State are both Sunni groups that once used to be close allies, but over the year, as Isis grew in prominence inside Syria, both militant groups turned into arch-rivals. In 2014, Al Qaeda even released an online statement insisting it had no links with the Isis militants. Ayman Mohammed Rabie al-Zawahiri, the current leader of al-Qaeda, even rejected an attempt by the Isis to merge with the Nusra Front, BBC reported. June 11, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Brennan recently made a startling but little-noticed admission: A belligerent foreign policy can actually make the United States less safe. Appearing on the May 31 edition of the CBS show Face the Nation, Brennan was asked by host Bob Schieffer if President Barack Obama is “just trying to buy time” in the war on terrorism or if he’s “ready to make a full commitment” to winning it. Brennan, naturally, replied that Obama was doing everything possible “to try to keep this country safe.” “There are,” he said, “no easy solutions” to the problems in the Middle East. “I think the president has tried to make sure that we're able to push the envelope when we can to protect this country,” Brennan continued. “But we have to recognize that sometimes our engagement and direct involvement will stimulate and spur additional threats to our national security interests.” (Emphasis added.)

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Dark Saudi-Israeli Plot to Tip the Scales in Syria Thursday, 11 June 2015 00:00 By Conn Hallinan, Foreign Policy in Focus | Op-Ed A quiet meeting this past March in Saudi Arabia, and a recent anonymous leak from the Israeli military, set the stage for what may be a new and wider war in the Middle East.

Gathering in the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh were Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, newly crowned Saudi King Salman, and the organizer of the get-together, the emir of Qatar. The meeting was an opportunity for Turkey and Saudi Arabia to bury a hatchet over Ankara's support — which Riyadh's opposes — to the Muslim Brotherhood, and to agree to cooperate in overthrowing the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad.

Taking Aim at Assad The pact prioritized the defeat of the Damascus regime over the threat posed by the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and aims to checkmate Iranian influence in the region. However, the Turks and the Saudis are not quite on the same page when it comes to Iran: Turkey sees future business opportunities when the sanctions against Tehran end, while Riyadh sees Iran as nothing but a major regional rival. The Turkish-Saudi axis means that Turkish weapons, bomb making supplies, and intelligence — accompanied by lots of Saudi money — are openly flowing to extremist groups like the al-Qaeda associated Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham, both now united in the so-called "Army of Conquest." The new alliance has created a certain amount of friction with the United States, which would also like to overthrow Assad but for the time being is focused on attacking the Islamic State and on inking a nuclear agreement with Iran. This could change, however, because the Obama administration is divided on how deeply it wants to get entangled in Syria. If Washington decides to supply anti-aircraft weapons to the Army of Conquest, it will mean the United States has thrown in its lot with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar — and that the "war on terror" is taking a backseat to regime change in Syria.

Not that the Americans are overly concerned about aiding and abetting Islamic extremists. While the U.S. is bombing the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Obama administration is also training Syrians to overthrow Assad, which objectively puts them in the extremist camp vis-à-vis the Damascus regime. Washington is also aiding the Saudis' war on the Houthis in Yemen. Yet the Houthis are the most effective Yemeni opponents of the Islamic State and the group called Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, against which the United States is waging a drone war.

The Turkish-Saudi alliance seems to have already made a difference in the Syrian civil war. After some initial successes last year against divided opponents, the Syrian government has suffered some sharp defeats in the past few months and appears to be regrouping to defend its base of support in the coastal regions and the cities of Homs, Hama, and Damascus. While the Syrian government has lost over half of the country to the insurgents, it still controls up to 60 percent of the population.Turkey has long been a major conduit for weapons, supplies, and fighters for the anti-Assad forces, and Saudi Arabia and most of its allies in the Gulf Coordination Council, representing the monarchies of the Middle East, have funneled money to the insurgents. But Saudi Arabia has always viewed the Muslim Brotherhood — which has a significant presence in Syria and in countries throughout the region — as a threat to its own monarchy.The fact that Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party is an offshoot of the Brotherhood has caused friction with the Saudis. For instance, while Turkey denounced the military coup against the elected Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, Saudi Arabia essentially bankrolled the takeover and continues to bail Cairo out of economic trouble.But all that was water under the bridge when it came to getting rid of Assad. The Turks and the Saudis have established a joint command center in the newly conquered Syrian province

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of Idlib and have begun pulling the kaleidoscope of Assad opponents into a cohesive force.

A War on Hezbollah? Three years of civil war has whittled the Syrian Army from 250,000 in 2011 to around 125,000 today, but Damascus is bolstered by Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters. The Lebanese Shiite organization that fought Israel to a draw in 2006 is among the Assad regime's most competent forces. Which is where the Israeli leak comes in. The timing of the story — published on May 12 in The New York Times — was certainly odd, as was the prominence given a story based entirely on unnamed "senior Israeli officials." If the source was obscured, the message was clear: "We will hit Hezbollah hard, while making every effort to limit civilian casualties as much as we can," the official said. But "we do not intend to stand by helplessly in the face of rocket attacks."

The essence of the article was that Hezbollah is using civilians as shields in southern Lebanon, and the Israelis intended to blast the group regardless of whether civilians are present or not. This is hardly breaking news. The Israeli military made exactly the same claim in its 2008-09 "Cast Lead" attack on Gaza and again in last year's "Protective Edge" assault on the same embattled strip. It is currently under investigation by the United Nations for possible war crimes involving the targeting of civilians.Nor is it the first time Israel has said the same thing about Hezbollah in Lebanon. In his Salonarticle entitled "The 'hiding among civilians' myth," Beirut-based writer and photographer Mitch Prothero found that "This claim [of hiding among civilians] is almost always false." Indeed, says Prothero, Hezbollah fighters avoid mingling with civilians because they know "they will sooner or later be betrayed by collaborators — as so many Palestinian militants have been." But why is the Israeli military talking about a war with Lebanon? The border is quiet. There have been a few incidents, but nothing major. Hezbollah has made it clear that it has no intention of starting a war, though it warns Tel Aviv that it's quite capable of fighting one. The most likely answer is that the Israelis are coordinating their actions with Turkey and Saudi Arabia.Tel Aviv has essentially formed a de facto alliance with Riyadh to block a nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 — the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany. Israel is also supporting Saudi Arabia's attack on Yemen and has an informal agreement with Riyadh and Ankara to back the anti-Assad forces in Syria.

Israel is taking wounded Nusra Front fighters across the southern Syrian border for medical treatment. It's also bombed Syrian forces in the Golan Heights. In one incident, it killed several Hezbollah members and an Iranian general advising the Syrian government.

The Realm of Uncertainty The Saudis have pushed the argument that Syria, Iraq, and Yemen are really about Iranian expansionism and the age-old clash between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Hezbollah is indeed a Shiite organization, and the majority of Iraqis are also members of the sect. Assad's regime is closely associated with the Alawites, an offshoot of Shiism, and the Houthis in Yemen follow a variety of the sect as well.However, the wars in the Middle East are about secular power, not divine authority — although sectarian division is a useful recruiting device. As for "Iranian aggression," it was the Sunni-dominated regime of Saddam Hussein, bankrolled by Saudi Arabia and supported by the United States, that started the modern round of Sunni-Shiite bloodletting when Iraq invaded Iran in 1981.

If the Israeli Army attacks southern Lebanon, Hezbollah will be forced to bring some of its troops home from Syria, thus weakening the Syrian Army at a time when it's already hard pressed by newly united rebel forces. In short, it would be a two-front war that would tie down Hezbollah, smash up southern Lebanon, and lead to the possible collapse of the Assad regime.

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As Karl von Clausewitz once noted, however, war is the realm of uncertainty. All that one can really determine is who fires the first shot. That the Israelis can pulverize scores of villages in southern Lebanon and kill lots of Shiites, there is no question. They've done it before. But a ground invasion may be very expensive, and the idea that they could "defeat" Hezbollah is a pipe dream. Shiites make up 40 percent of Lebanon's sectarian mélange and dominate the country's south. Hezbollah has support among other communities as well, in part because it successfully resisted the 1982-2000 Israeli occupation and bloodied Tel Aviv in the 2006 invasion. An Israeli attack on Hezbollah, however, would almost certainly re-ignite Lebanon's civil war, while bolstering the power of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. The Turks might think that al-Qaeda is no threat to them, but recent history should give them pause.Creating something like the mujahedeen in Afghanistan and the anti-Gaddafi forces in Libya is not terribly difficult. Controlling them is altogether another matter.

"It Always Seems to Blow Back" "Every power in the Middle East has tried to harness the power of the Islamists to their own end," says Joshua Landis, director of Middle Eastern Studies at Oklahoma University. But "it always seems to blow back."The Afghan mujahedeen created the Taliban and al-Qaeda, the U.S. invasion of Iraq spawned the Islamic State, and Libya has collapsed into a safe haven for radical Islamist groups of all stripes. Erdogan may think the Justice and Development Party's Islamic credentials will shield Turkey from a Syrian ricochet, but many of these groups consider Erdogan an apostate for playing democratic politics in secular institutions.Indeed, up to 5,000 Turkish young people have volunteered to fight in Syria and Iraq. Eventually they will take the skills and ideology they learned on the battlefield back to Turkey, and Erdogan may come to regret his fixation with overthrowing Assad. While it hard to imagine a Middle East more chaotic than it is today, if the Army of Conquest succeeds in overthrowing the Assad government, and Israel attacks Lebanon, "chaos" will be an understatement.

The Rise of Jaysh al-Fateh in Northern Syria. Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 13 Issue: 12 June 12, 2015 By: Wladimir van Wilgenburg. The logo of Jaysh al-Fateh A new Islamist coalition called the Army of Conquest (Jaysh al-

Fateh) has in the last few months have scored significant victories against the Syrian government, capturing most of Idlib province (al-Jazeera, June 6). The group also possibly plans to attack the Syrian government positions in Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Lattakia, most recently cutting off a key supply route to Aleppo (al-Sharq al-Awsat, June 6). The newly formed Islamist coalition mainly attacks the Syrian government, but it is also involved in clashes with the Islamic State in northern Aleppo. [1] The new coalition’s remarkable success, such as

its capture of Idlib only a few days after its official founding on March 24, seems to be due to a number of factors (Syria Direct, March 25). These include: new cooperation against the Syrian government by key regional powers (Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar) after years of disunity, the Syrian government’s lack of manpower, new coordination between rebel groups and the defeat of U.S.-backed groups in Idlib, which resulted in this coalition acquiring their heavy weapons.

Foundation Jaysh al-Fateh was formed in March 2015, and includes most Islamist rebel groups, with the prominent exception of the Islamic State. According to a Jabhat al-Nusra source, the alliance controls in between 12,000-15,000 fighters. [2] The coalition includes most importantly al-Qaeda’s Syrian front, Jabhat al-Nusra, which is led by Abu

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Muhammed al-Julani. Moreover, it also includes other Islamist rebel groups such as Jund al-Aqsa, Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Haqq, Jaysh al-Sunna, Ajnad al-Sham and Faylaq al-Sham (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 6). The coalition also has relations with other groups such as the Islamic Army, which it cooperated with against Assad in Jisr al-Shughur and against the Islamic State in north Aleppo. [3] Reportedly, Faylaq al-Sham is backed by Saudi Arabia, while Ahrar al-Sham reportedly receives support from Turkey (Zaman al-Wasl, May 15; al-Jazeera, April 5).

Cooperation Between Allies According to some sources, the new success of the rebel coalition is the result of a new détente between Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which aims to stop what they see as Iran’s expansion in the region, leading to a joint decision to collectively support Sunni rebels against the Syrian government (al-Jazeera, May 24). There are several indications that Turkey and Saudi Arabia at least support members of this new alliance against the Syrian government, and several meetings were held in Turkey. In addition, a statement released by Faylaq al-Sham in May supported Saudi Arabia’s actions against the allegedly Iranian-backed Houthi movement in Yemen, underlining the regional dimensions of this anti-Iranian alliance (Zaman al-Wasl, May 15). Moreover, Turkey maintains a close relation with Ahrar al-Sham, and Turkish intelligence has most likely has been shipping weapons to Ahrar al-Sham (al-Jazeera, April 5; Al-Monitor, June 2). It is not only Western analysts who suggest that Jaysh al-Fateh is backed by regional groups; the Islamic State also accuses Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar of funnelling aid to the rebel coalition to help them to both combat Assad in Idlib and Qalamoun and to attack the Islamic State in Qalamoun. [4] The Islamic State has tried to argue that any group that allies with such “apostates” is itself apostate, in order to discredit Jabhat al-Nusra and to justify attacks against the group. Other rebel groups see no problem in receiving support from other states, as long as it is used against the Syrian government of Assad and not other Islamic rebel groups. This indicates that more clashes between the Islamic State and Jaysh al-Fateh (and Jabhat al-Nusra) will happen in the future in northern Aleppo and Qalamoun. And that even if Assad is weakened in Idlib and Aleppo, there might be more clashes between the Islamic State and its rivals.

Coordination However, a Jabhat al-Nusra fighter nicknamed Abu Muhammad Holandi, who is in contact with that group’s leadership, denies any financial link between Jaysh al-Fateh and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, and says that there is no joint cooperation to stop Iran’s expansion in the region: It should be mentioned that the Jaysh al-Fateh alliance does not receive any foreign backing. This was one of the preconditions of forming the alliance. With this support, I mean financial support, since within Jaysh al-Fateh there are a few groups that receive support from foreign countries. [5]He suggested that the main reason for the successes of the alliance is not due to foreign support, but coordination and unity between the rebel groups that defeated Assad in Idlib. Moreover, he said that the fact the groups share with Saudi Arabia and Qatar a common enemy in Iran does not necessarily make Jabhat al-Nusra and other groups allies: “There is no cooperation at all with these countries, everything that Nusra carries out is in cooperation with these groups.” While the Islamic State wants other groups to swear allegiance, Jabhat al-Nusra’s comparative flexibility and pragmatism has led to it receiving support from some parts of the Syrian population, which has enabled it to fight the Syrian government more effectively. In addition, Jabhat al-Nusra has reportedly formed several joint operation rooms with other groups which are part of Jaysh al-Fateh, which are also better equipped through receiving arms, ammunition and supplies from Turkey and the Saudis (International Business Times, March 31).

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Increased Capabilities Jabhat al-Nusra’s supporters also say that another key factor in the group’s rise is its earlier defeat of U.S.-backed groups, such as Harakat Hazm and its allies and the Syrian Revolutionaries Front (SRF) in November 2014, have also enabled it to refocus its efforts on defeating Assad. Holandi said:We see that since the U.S.-supported groups were driven away or beaten by Nusra, this resulted in a reversal in the fight between us and Bashar. Due to the fact that these insidious groups were removed, this cleared the way for the sincere groups to completely concentrate on the battle against Bashar. [6] The defeat of the U.S.-equipped groups and the capture of their equipment also substantially empowered Jabhat al-Nusra. This equipment included anti-tank TOW missiles that were used against Assad by Jaysh al-Fateh in Idlib (Washington Post, March 1). On these, Hollandi remarked: “Furthermore, there is now a high amount of a certain weapons. Guided anti-tank missiles now provide us an opportunity to inflict heavy damage on the army of Assad in other ways. The battle changed from a guerrilla war into a real army versus army war.” It is unclear if the non-Jabhat al-Nusra groups in the coalition are also receiving guided anti-tank missiles from regional Sunni countries backing the alliance.

Conclusion Jaysh al-Fateh is likely to continue to expand in Sunni areas around Idlib and other parts of northern Syria due to Jabhat al-Nusra’s relative pragmatism, its coordination with other groups, the Syrian government’s lack of manpower, increased regional cooperation to stop Iranian expansion and its newly acquired weapons. If the alliance is not attacked by the Islamic State, it is possible for it to continue to expand in Aleppo and other Sunni-majority provinces in the coming months. It is, however, unlikely that the new alliance will take the capital Damascus in the near future, or the Alawite heartland of western Syria, and it is also likely that Assad’s allies (such as Iran) will try to send more support to counter Jaysh al-Fateh’s advances. That said, further support of regional Sunni countries for the Islamist factions that compose Jaysh al-Fateh would most likely lead to more tensions between these countries with the United States, which is more concerned with halting the Islamic State than toppling Assad. In addition, it is possible that further successes by Jaysh al-Fateh will likely lead to renewed clashes between the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra in northern Syria and the Qalamoun region. In this scenario, the more territory Jaysh al-Fateh takes, the more competition will erupt between the jihadist factions of Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State. Moreover, the Jaysh al-Fateh alliance itself is new and potentially shaky, and could fragment, as have other rebel alliances previously, for instance, due to different policies of Syria’s neighboring countries and pressure from outside powers to contain Nusra’s influence. Wladimir van Wilgenburg is a political analyst specializing in issues concerning Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey with a particular focus on Kurdish politics. Notes 1. Testimony of Shaykh Abdullah al-Muhaysini regarding the attack by the Islamic State group against the mujahideen in North Aleppo, June 1, 2015, http://justpaste.it/lhfu. 2. Author’s online interview with Abu Mohammed al-Holandi, May, 2015. Al-Holandi’s real name is reportedly Abdelkarim al-Atrach. He is a Jabhat al-Nusra fighter based in Aleppo, and is also in contact with the group’s leadership. He gained notoriety in the Netherlands for releasing a video message after the U.S.-led coalition airstrikes killed three Dutch Jabhat al-Nusra fighters in September 2014, where he called for a “strong act” in the Netherlands in response. 3. Author’s interview with Abdurahhman Sy, spokesperson of the Islamic Army, through Skype, June 8, 2015. 4. Dabiq, 9th edition, Al-Hayat, May 21, 2015, http://jihadology.net/2015/05/21/al-%E1%B8%A5ayat-media-center-presents-a-new-issue-of-the-islamic-states-magazine-dabiq-9/. 5. Author’s online interview with Abu Mohammed al-Holandi, May, 2015. 6. Ibid.

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TerrorismMonitorVol13Issue12_01.pdf

Jun 10, 2015 3:27 Syrian Army, Hezbollah Marching on Nusra Positions in Jreijeer Heights

TEHRAN (FNA)- The Syrian Army alongside the Lebanon's Hezbollah Resistance Movement raided the positions of the al-Nusra terrorists in the surrounding areas of Jreijeer Heights and pushed them back from the battlefront, military sources said on Wednesday. The sources said that the Syrian army men and Hezbollah fighters, after fierce clashes on Tuesday and Wednesday, gained the upper hand against the rebels in Arsal farm, particularly after their eye-catching advances in the Jreijeer Heights. The Syrian army and Hezbollah retook control over the Flita Heights in al-Qalamoun last week, and killed tens of insurgents there.On Friday, the Syrian army's General Command in a statement announced that the Syrian troops will continue their operations until taking full control over Qalamoun hills along Syria-Lebanon border. On May 23, the Syrian army and the Hezbollah fighters made significant

gains in Qalamoun in Damascus countryside and took control over strategic hilltops of Jord Flita Mountain.The army units and Hezbollah regained control of Jabal Salajah South of Flita Mountain, killing a large number of Al-Nusra Front terrorists in fierce clashes.Jabal Salajah is the second highest hilltop in Jord Flita in al-Qalamoun area after Jabal al-Moussa. The Hezbollah fighters were only

less than four kilometers away from Arsal Mountains in Eastern Lebanon. The Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters had gained control over 70 percent of Jord Flita. The Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters are heavily fighting against the Al-Nusra Front terrorists in the Northern hilltops of Jord Flita. Last Wednesday, the army and Hezbollah forces started their last round of military operations to purge Al-Qalamoun region in Damascus countryside of Takfiri terrorists. The Syrian army units have now regained control of Al-Emareh 1, Al-Emareh 2, Al-Emareh 3 and Saleh 3 as well as Northern parts of Flita.

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Regards Cees: Islamic State executes over 3,000 in Syria in year-long 'caliphate', says monitor. Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil) has executed more than 3,000 people in Syria, including hundreds of civilians, in the year since it declared its self-described "caliphate," a monitor said on Sunday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based group monitoring Syria's conflict, said it had documented 3,027 executions by Isil since June 29, 2014. Among those executed are 1,787 civilians, including 74 children, said the Observatory. Members of Sunni Shaitat tribe account for around half of the civilians murdered. Isil killed 930 members of the clan in Deir Ezzor last year after they rose up against the extremist Sunni Muslim group. The toll also includes recent mass killings by Isil in the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobane, which the jihadist group re-entered briefly this week after being expelled in January.

Boots on the Ground 06.28.151:18 PM ET Turkey Plans to Send Troops Into Syria, Widening the War The Turkish military is not enthusiastic and Washington may have its doubts, but President Erdogan appears determined to set up a buffer zone. ISTANBUL—

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Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is planning a military intervention into northern Syria to prevent Syrian Kurds from forming their own state there, despite concerns among his own generals and possible criticism from Washington and other NATO allies, according to reports in both pro- and anti-government media. In a speech last Friday, Erdogan vowed that Turkey would not accept a move by Syrian Kurds to set up their own state in Syria following gains by Kurdish fighters against the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS, in recent weeks. “I am saying this to the whole world: We will never allow the establishment of a state on our southern border in the north of Syria,” Erdogan said. “We will continue our fight in that respect whatever the cost may be.” He accused Syrian Kurds of ethnic cleansing in Syrian areas under their control.

Following the speech, several news outlets reported that the president and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had decided to send the Turkish army into Syria, a hugely significant move by NATO’s second biggest fighting force after the U.S. military.  Both the daily Yeni Safak, a mouthpiece of the government, and the newspaper Sozcu, which is among Erdogan’s fiercest critics, ran stories saying the Turkish Army had received orders to send soldiers over the border. Several other media had similar stories, all quoting unnamed sources in Ankara. There has been no official confirmation or denial by the government.

The government refused to comment on the reports. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said “the necessary statement” would be issued after a regular meeting of the National Security Council, which comprises the president, the government and military leaders, this Tuesday.

The reports said up to 18,000 soldiers would be deployed to take over and hold a strip of territory up to 30 kilometers deep and 100 kilometers long that currently is held by ISIS. It stretches from close to the Kurdish-controlled city of Kobani in the east to an area further west held by the pro-Western Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other rebel groups, beginning around the town of Mare. This “Mare Line,” as the press calls it, is to be secured with ground troops, artillery and air cover, the reports said. Yeni Safak reported preparations were due to be finalized by next Friday.

There has been speculation about a Turkish military intervention ever since the Syrian conflict began in 2011. Ankara has asked the United Nations and its Western allies to give the green light to create a buffer zone and a no-fly area inside Syria in order to prevent chaos along the Turkish border and to help refugees on Syrian soil before they cross over into Turkey. But the Turkish request has fallen on deaf ears.

“We will never allow the establishment of a state on our southern border in the north of Syria.”

The latest reports fit Erdogan’s statement on Friday and the government position regarding recent gains by Syrian Kurds against the Islamic State. The Syrian Kurdish party PYD and its armed wing YPG, affiliates of the Turkish-Kurdish rebel group PKK, have secured a long band of territory in northern Syria from the Syrian-Iraqi border in the east to Kobani.

Ankara is concerned that the Kurds will now turn their attention to the area west of Kobani and towards Mare to link up with the Kurdish area of Afrin, thereby connecting all Kurdish areas in Syria along the border with Turkey. Erdogan expects that the Syrian Kurds, whose advance against ISIS has been helped by airstrikes from the U.S.-led coalition, will go on to form their own state as Syria disintegrates after more than four years of war.

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PYD leader Saleh Muslim denied that Syria’s Kurds intend to do this.  

But Turkey’s leaders are not convinced that is true. The daily Hurriyet reported Erdogan and Davutoglu wanted to “kill two birds with one stone” with a military intervention along the Mare Line. One aim would be to drive ISIS away from the Turkish border, depriving the jihadists of their last foothold on the frontier and thereby cutting off supply lines. Such a move would tie in with the U.S. strategy to contain and weaken ISIS.

A second goal of the operation would be closer to Ankara’s own interests. The English-language Hurriyet Daily News quoted one source saying there was a need to  “prevent the PYD from taking full control over the Turkish-Syrian border,” and also to create a zone on Syrian territory rather than in Turkey to take in new waves of refugees.

But the military is reluctant, the reports said. Generals told the government that Turkish troops could come up against ISIS, Kurds and Syrian government troops and get drawn into the Syrian quagmire. Retaliation attacks by ISIS and Kurdish militants on Turkish territory are another concern.

Finally, the soldiers pointed to the international dimension. The military leadership told the government that the international community might get the impression that Turkey’s intervention was directed against Syria’s Kurds, the newspaper Haberturk reported.

Turkey’s NATO partners, some of whom have deployed troops operating Patriot missile defense units near the Syrian border to shield member country Turkey against possible attacks from Syria, are unlikely to be happy with a Turkish intervention.

Turkey’s pro-government press insisted there were no tensions between civilian and military leaders in Ankara. “If the government says ‘go,’ we will go in,” the pro-Erdogan daily Aksam wrote, attempting to sum up the military’s stance in a headline.

On Sunday, fighting broke out between ISIS troops and FSA units near the town of Azaz, close to the Turkish border crossing of Oncupinar. News reports said ISIS was trying to bring the Syrian side of the border crossing under its control. The area of the latest clashes lies within the “Mare Line” cited as the possible location of a Turkish incursion.

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