AL QAIDAFUTURE TERRORIST CAPS OF

INTRO

TO ACQUAINT THE

STUDENT OFFRS WITH AL-

QAIDA AND ITS FUTURE

CAPS WITH A VIEW TO

ARRIVE AT VIABLE

RESPONSE PARAMETERS

FOR THE INTL

COMMUNITY TO CTR THIS

MENACE

SEQ Part 1 - Overview Of al-

qaida

Part 2 - Future Terrorist

Caps

Of al-qaida

Part 3 - Recommendations

PART I

OVERVIEW OF AL - QAIDA

OVERVIE

W OF AL-QAIDA

• Al-qaida or “The Base”. The name

“qaida” can be translated from Arabic

into “foundation” or “base”.

PART 1

THE NAME

IDEOLOGY

Cleansing the muslim countries from

corrupt and secular leadership, and fight

against the powers that threaten muslim

states and the holy places of islam.

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Radicalise existing Islamic groups and create Islamic gps where none existent.

Advocate destruction of the United States, which is seen as the chief obstacle to reform in Muslim societies.

Sp Muslim fighters in Afghanistan, Algeria, Bosnia, Chechnya, Eritrea, Kosovo, Pakistan, Somalia, Tajikistan, Philippines and Yemen.

Al-Qaida's main goal is to “unite all Muslims and to estb the Caliphate”.

Al-Qaida's goal, therefore, is to overthrow nearly all those Muslim govts, which are viewed as corrupt, to drive Western influence from those ctys, and eventually to abolish state bdrys.

IDEOLOGICAL GOALS

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CREATION OF AL-QAIDA• The name al-Qaida, or "the Base," dates back to 1988

and reportedly originated from the term used to refer to

one of bin Laden's guesthouses.

• Al-Qaida grew out of the Afghan war against the Soviets,

and its core members consist of Afghan war veterans

from all over the Muslim world.

• Based in Afghanistan, bin Laden used an extensive

international network to maintain a loose connection

between Muslim extremists in diverse countries.

• He was in touch with an unknown number of followers all

over the Arab world, as well as in Europe, Asia, the

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AL QAIDA’S ORG STRUCTURE

This org structure should not be read as defining

a hierarchical chain of command for specific

terrorist operations.

Means for coord fns and providing material sp to

ops.

Once a specific op is decided upon, it would be

asg to a carefully selected CN cell, headed by a

snr al-qaida op who reported pers to Bin Laden.

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• Shura/Advisory Council. Dir the overall strat.

• Sharia/Pol Committee. Resp for issuing fatwas.

• Mil Committee. Conceiving and

planning ops, as well as managing

trg camps.

• Fin Committee. Fund-raising, and the clt

of assets.

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PART 1MAIN CONSTITUENTS

• Foreign Purchases Committee. Acqn of foreign arm

and supplies.

• Security Committee. Phy protection, int,

and CI.

• Info Committee. In charge of propaganda.

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MAIN CONSTITUENTS

THE LDR

• Usama bin Laden is the ldr of Al-

Qaida.

• Raised in Saudi Arabia in a

wealthy, high profile, family of

Yemeni origins.

• The beginning of his

radicalisation dates back to his

university studies in Jeddah,

Saudi Arabia, where he was

linked to members of the Muslim

Brotherhood.

• Later, his involvement in the

Afghan struggle against the

Soviet occupation played a maj

role in shaping his ideology.

During this experience, he found

a sense of purpose and became

deeply religious.

• Bin Laden also made contacts

with Islamic fighters from around

the world and participated in

victorious struggles against a

secular superpower.

MEMBERS OF AL- QAIDA• According to an Arab security service, Al-Qaida

consisted of 2,830 members,• 594 Egyptians,• 410 Jordanians,• 291 Yemenis, • 255 Iraqis, • 162 Syrians, • 177 Algerians, • 111 Sudanese, • 63 Tunisians, • 53 Moroccans,• 32 Palestinians.

• Many Al-Qaida members are Mujahedeen, veterans of the Afghan resistance against the Soviet occupation. These militants fight not only for their cause, but also because it is the only life they know. Most cannot return to their native countries because of their militancy. O

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CO-ORGS OF AL-QAIDA.

• In 1998, Bin Laden announced the fmn of

an umbrella organization called “The

Islamic World Front for the struggle

against the Jews and the Crusaders” (Al-

Jabhah al-Islamiyyah al-`Alamiyyah li-Qital

al-Yahud wal-Salibiyyin).

• Among the active members of this

organization are the Egyptian Al-Gama’a

al-Islamiyya and the Egyptian Al-Jihad.

• Both of these groups have been active in

terrorism over the past decade and are

now considered as part and parcel of Al-

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REASONS FOR AL QAIDA’S ANTI AMERICAN POLICY

The main reasons for Usama Bin Laden to be against United States of America (USA) are the presence of the US forces on the holy land of Arabian Peninsula and an unconditional US support to the Israel against the Palestinians. It is evident from his following Fatwas:-• “Declaration of War against the Americans Occupying the

Land of the Two Holy Places” was issued by Usama Bin Laden in August 1996.

• Later in the same year he said that "Terrorizing the American occupiers (of Islamic Holy Places) is a religious and logical obligation."

• In February 1998 he issued and signed a 'fatwa' which included a decree to all Muslims emphasising that the killing of Americans and their civilian and military allies is a religious duty for each and every Muslim to be carried out in whichever country they are .

• In an interview aired on Al Jazira (Doha, Qatar) television he stated: "Our enemy is every American male, whether he is directly fighting us or paying taxes."

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KNOWN OPS OF AL-QAIDA The State Dept of US currently

links Al-Qaida to many recent terrorist attks, among them the main acts are:- Feb 1993. A bomb at New York's

World Trade Centre killed six people and injured another 1,000.

Nov 1995. A car bomb in Saudi Arabia killed five American servicemen.

Jun 1996. A car bomb in Saudi Arabia shattered an apartment complex housing US servicemen, killing at least 19 and wounding 400.

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Aug 1998. Bombing at U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania killing 224 people - including 12 Americans - and injuring thousands others.

Dec 1999. Jordanian intelligence uncovered a plot to attack US installations during millennium celebrations.

Oct 2000. A suicide bomb off the USS Cole in the Yemeni port of Aden killed 17 sailors and injured 39 others.

Sep 2001. Four hijacked planes crashed into New York City World Trade Centre, Washington Pentagon and Pennsylvania grass field area. Attacks killed more than 5,000 people.

KNOWN OPS OF AL-QAIDA

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RESOURCES OF AL-QAIDA. Usama Bin Laden’s Pers Assets.

The primary source of funding is believed to be bin Laden's fortune. Usama bin Laden is 17th son out of 52 children of Saudi construction tycoon Muhammad Awad bin Laden, who amassed a fortune from successful construction and contracting companies in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Today, the bin Laden family fortune is estimated at $5 billion, of which Usama is reported to have received an estimated $300 million before his family disavowed him.

In April 1994, after his Saudi citizenship was revoked, Bin Laden moved to Khartoum in Sudan where he set up factories and farms. Among bin Laden’s numerous Sudanese commercial interests are: a factory to process goat skins, a construction company, a bank, a sunflower plantation, and an import-export operation.

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• Donations. Besides the personal property of Usama Bin Laden, it is believed that a lot of financial support to Al-Qaida was being provided in terms of donations by various Muslims especially from the oil rich Gulf countries in the name of support for the Jihad. Although no worthwhile names could be found to substantiate this claim of the US government.

RESOURCES OF AL-QAIDA.

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• Drug Trafficking. Bin Laden is also alleged to benefit from the drug trade in Afghanistan, the world's leading exporter of heroin. This is quite unlikely as the Taliban banned poppy production in Afghanistan and implemented that ban very effectively. Moreover, since growing poppy and doing business in narcotics is un-Islamic, hence it is not likely that the men with a strong belief in the basics of Islam will benefit from drug trafficking.

RESOURCES OF AL-QAIDA.

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TRG IN AL-QAIDA.

The trg camps, which the Bush adm described as factories churning out terrorists, were focused largely on creating an army to support the Taliban, who were waging a long ground war against the Northern Alliance.

important facets of trg in Al-Qaida:- • Al-Qaida till 11 September 2001 op

approx 12 trg camps in Afghanistan, in which it has reportedly trained as many as 5,000 militants. These militants have allegedly created cells in 50 ctys.

• Oath Taking Before the Trg. Every member was req to undertake an oath before starting his trg.

• Phy Trg. Rects are subj to rigorous phy trg routine.

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• Basic Inf Trg. Most of the recruits received basic infantry training that covered the use of various small arms, as well as anti armour and antiaircraft weapons and, in some cases basic demolition; the documents show. The notebooks discovered from the destroyed training camps go on to describe how to carry out a coordinated infantry assault.

• Elite Trg. A smaller gp of recruits is selected for elite training that prepare them for terrorist actions. "Observing foreign embassies and facilities," was the subject of one al-qaida espionage course. Another taught "shooting the personality and his guard from a motorcycle."

TRG IN AL-QAIDA.

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• Trg for Sabotage. "Training was imparted to Al-Qaida men for sabotage of electric plants, gas plants, airports, railroads, large corporations and hotels where conferences are held." Another advanced class was on such matters as "hit teams" and "hijacking of air, bus, ship."

• Making of Explosives. An Arabic language explosives curriculum found in the vacated houses gave detailed instructions on how to make and handle a range of substances: nitro-glycerine, HMDT, RDX, C-4, C-3, dynamite and ammonium nitrate.

TRG IN AL-QAIDA.

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Poisons and Poisonous Gases. A final section dealt with maj poisons and poison gases, which can be extracted in various ways. The docus listed the toxins - incl resin, botulism and cyanide - and described how to manufacture and use them. In one of the lessons, the students watched their trainers kill a dog in a box with homemade cyanide gas, and learned how this crude chemical weapon could be placed near the air intakes of office and apartment buildings.

Tech Sophistication. Al-Qaida members are familiar with modern communications and have been reported to use encrypted e-mail, cellular phones, satellite communications, and training manuals on CD-ROMs.

TRG IN AL-QAIDA.

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NETWORK OF AL - QAIDA

The core of Al-Qaida is made up of Usama Bin Laden working close with a Majlis-e-Shura consisting of about 10 members

Below are the adm parts of the organisation, made up of 4 executive committees covering these 4 fields: military activity and training; religious education; commercial activity; media relations.

Each cell operates independently with its members not knowing the identity of other cells.

If one group is arrested they will not be able to betray others.

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STRENGTHS OF AL-QAIDA Strong Conviction. The activists of Al-Qaida have a

strong conviction. They are fully convinced that they have a just cause and a sound reasoning to carry out their mission which they call as Jihad.

Devotion to Cause. The people in Al-Qaida are fully devoted to their cause/mission. They do not have any other purpose of their lives but to attain the goals of Al-Qaida.

Unity of Command. Usama bin laden is the commander and spiritual leader of Al-Qaida. He is the sole authority to make any major decisions thus resulting in complete coordination of actions by all.

Blind Obedience of the Leader. The activists of Al-Qaida follow the instructions of their leader in letter and spirit without questioning their validity. This reflects the highest level of trust and cohesion they have in each other and is the reason for failure of the USA in breaking this organisation by creating the differences amongst the members.

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Selflessness. All the members of Al-Qaida have absolutely no political, financial or personal gains from the acts of Al-Qaida. They can not be bought and there are no cases of corruption or moral turpitude against them.

Lack of Fear of Death. The people in Al-Qaida are ready to sacrifice their lives for the attainment of their mission. To them, their cause is the most sacred.

Highest Level of Motivation. Motivation of everyone in Al-Qaida is the highest possible. They never get demoralised if they have suffered any failures; instead they keep on trying again and again till such time the mission given to them is accomplished.

Simple Living Style. Everyone including the leader lives a simple life despite the vast financial resources at their disposal. The commanders at all levels live like ordinary workers and have simple food and clothing.

STRENGTHS OF AL-QAIDA

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Highest Level of Secrecy. The highest level of secrecy of plans is maintained by all the concerned. This made them to execute the plans of the scale of 9/11 and no one could get a substantial clue of it.

International Reach. Al-Qaida is an organisation with international reach as its members are spread all over the world. Hence, they can strike at their targets at the time and place of their choosing.

Vast Financial Resources. Al-Qaida has sufficient money to support and sustain all of its operations. This money mostly comes from Usama Bin Laden and the donations by the people.

STRENGTHS OF AL-QAIDA

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WEAKNESSES OF AL-QAIDA

Violence. Al-Qaida seeks to achieve its ends by violent means like bombing, hijacking the aircrafts, shooting the people and terrorising the innocent civilians. It is because of this violence that the world has organised a global war to eradicate the Al-Qaida.

Loose Network. Al-Qaida does not have a well defined hierarchical organised structure. This makes command and control of the people difficult. Once the instructions are to be passed or feed back is to be taken, it becomes quite cumbersome.

Faulty Strategy. It is being alleged by the international community that Al-Qaida planned and executed the 9/11 terrorist attacks on USA. It did bring a lot of media coverage and the cause of Al-Qaida was amply highlighted. But, Al-Qaida never thought that the world would join hands in a fight to annihilate them and Taliban from Afghanistan. This wrong strategy led to destruction of its entire infrastructure in Afghanistan and loss of so many of its members.

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One Man Show. Al-Qaida revolves around Usama Bin laden, he being the leader and spiritual head of the organisation. If Usama bin laden is eliminated or arrested, it is likely that the organisation will break up and will not be able to sustain.

Rigidity. One common quality of all the members of Al-Qaida is the rigidity in their thought. They can not be convinced by any logic or reasoning to give up their current path of violence which they call as Jihad.

WEAKNESSES OF AL-QAIDA

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FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA

PART II

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA Bio wpns. Al Qaida has

progressed much further toward dev a particular biological wpn than the world realise. The int community was surprised by al Qaida's advs in a virulent strain in the disease, identified by the commission only as "Agent X”. Al Qaida is also believed to have acquired tech sp from certain multinational drug coys who are sympathetic their cause.

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA Chem Wpn

Al Qaida leaders have shown an interest in acquiring and employing chemical weapons, as indicated by experiments testing the use of hydrogen cyanide on animals in Al Qaida camps in Afghanistan prior to the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001.

In addition to other docs showing ongoing research on chemical weapons, al Qaida planned and then aborted a chemical attack on the New York City subway system in 2005.

Al Qaida initiated chlorine attacks in Iraq in 2007.

It is believed by analysts that Al Qaida ldrs would not hesitate to use any chem, bio, radiological, or nuc weapons that they might acquire.

Al Qaida openly issued a public invitation for Muslim chemists, biologists, and physicists to join their cause.

Unfortunately, a substantial amount of information on how to manufacture chemical weapons already exists in the public domain, particularly on the Internet, which is within reach of individuals and groups worldwide.

Nuc wpns. In 1986, the Nuc Con Institute, in coop

with the Institute for Studies in Intl Terrorism of the State University of New York, convened the International Task Force on Prevention of Nuc Terrorism, comprised of 26 nuclear scientists and industrialists, current and former government officials, and experts on terrorism from nine countries.

The Task Force warned that the "probability of nuclear terrorism is increasing" because of a number of factors including "the growing incidence, sophistication and lethality of conventional forms of terrorism," as well as the vulnerability of nuclear power and research reactors to sabotage and of weapons-usable nuclear materials to theft.

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA

There is now intense national and international attention to the risks of nuclear terrorism.

The possibilities that Al Qaida might acquire the materials and the knowledge for building nuclear weapons or "dirty bombs" or might attack commercial nuclear-power facilities to trigger a nuclear meltdown are of particular concern.

The Nuclear Control Institute has been alerting the public and policymakers to these risks, seeking emergency measures to reduce the vuln, and monitoring and assessing the responses of industry, govts and intl agencies.

With regards to nuc proliferation, ctys incl Iran, Libya, North Korea, Pakistan and some cen asian republics are viewed with particular concern by the intl community.

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA

Cyber Terrorism. Besides disposable cellular phones and indefinable

cellular sim cards, for instance made in Switzerland, Al qaida uses free based email boxes at Hotmail, Yahoo!, etc for messaging and exchanging of information, where it is impossible to intercept them.

John Hamre, Deputy Secretary of Defence (1997-1999) said that on Al qaida's laptops, which they had got our hands on, there had been all these probing of sites dealing with programming of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems and control of SCADA systems within electrical and other power company scenarios.

Osama bin Laden showed the importance of Internet when he created an original hacker school at the faculty of electronics in his university.

Most troubling, the campaign of terror planned in 1993 and the September 11, 2001, attacks on the WTC and Pentagon indicates that Al-Qaida has not only the patience and resources for meticulous, long-term planning but a willingness to undertake terrorist actions of a scale hitherto unknown.

FBI cyber security experts believe that the threat is very different to earlier financial disruptions caused by hackers or viruses. Instead, they fear the targets will be physical structures such as dams and power stations controlled by computers. They believe Al-Qaida has been quietly probing such systems using computers in the Middle East and South-east Asia.

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA

Economic terrorism. Osama bin laden plans strategies based

on his victory over the Soviets in Afghanistan during the 1980s.

He believes the way to bring down a superpower is to weaken its economy through protracted guerrilla warfare.

AL Qaeda bled Russia for ten years until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat.

"We are continuing in the same policy to make America bleed profusely to the point of bankruptcy," said bin Laden.

To bring the U.S. to suffer a fate similar to that of the Soviet Union, the terrorists need to drain America's resources and bring it to the point it can no longer afford to preserve its military and economic dominance.

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA

Methods of Economic WarThe first is the destruction of high-cost

qualitative targets by low-cost qualitative means.

The 2001 attack on the World Trade Centre is a perfect example of how terrorists can get more bang for their cheap buck.

Bin Laden cited estimates that Al qaida spent $500,000 to carry out the attacks of September 11, which caused America to lose more than $500 billion. "Every dollar of Al qaida defeated a million US dollars," bin Laden concluded. 

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA

Bin Laden's second form of economic warfare involves forcing the U.S. to sink unsustainable amounts of funding into its defence agencies.

The more the U.S. invests in defence, the more its domestic investment suffers neglect.

Not much is needed, bin Laden reasons, to provoke America into expensive military interventions: "All that we have to do is to send two mujahedeen to the furthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which is written Al Qaida, in order to make generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic and political losses without their achieving anything.“

America now spends an extra $100 billion per year on its military. Add to this the creation of a $30 billion-per-year Department of Homeland Security, and the billions directed to the State Department and other agencies aiding allies in the War on Terror and we discover a price tag of at least $150 billion annually to defend the U.S. against terrorism. 

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA

Oil, which jihadists call "the provision line and the feeding to the artery of the life of the crusader's nation," is the third component of bin Laden's strategy.

Oil facilities and oil workers have been attacked around the world. In Iraq more than 190 attacks targeted oil pipelines. Rising oil prices partly reflect the "fear premium" added by oil terrorism. For the US, an importer of more than 10 million barrels a day, the spike in oil prices means a loss of over $50 billion in one year.

Attacks on oil serve jihadists in another, subtler way. Higher oil prices mean a historic transfer of wealth from oil-consuming countries -- primarily the U.S. -- to the Muslim world, where three quarters of global oil reserves are concentrated.

FUTURE OF AL-QAIDA

RECOMMENDATIONS

TO ERADICATE AL-QAIDA AND GLOBAL TERRORISM

PART III

RECOMMENDATIONS

Meeting the Demands. One of the basic ways to solve a conflict is to meet the demands of the aggrieved party. In the present scenario if the declared demands of Al-Qaida; establishing rule of Shariah in the Arab Monarchies and extrication of US forces from the Arab holy places is met, it is very likely that Al-Qaida will cease to exist, or at least it will loose popular support of the followers of her ideology. However, meeting of these demands either by the Arab countries or USA is not at all likely.

RECOMMENDATIONS• US Foreign Policies Based on Justice for

All. Since the main target of Al-Qaida has been USA only; hence to eradicate it, the world in general and USA in particular has to adopt the uniform just policies for all the nations irrespective of their religion, or geographical location. The reinforcement of United Nations Security Council resolutions is equally essential in all the matters and for all the nationalities, may it be Iraq, Libya, Iran, Israel, India or any other nation. The USA, being the only superpower shares the maximum blame of injustice.

RECOMMENDATIONS Resolution of Palestine Issue.

Palestine Issue being one of the oldest issues still unresolved despite numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions, needs to be resolved justly at the top most priority as the first step to counter Al-Qaida. The USA has to stop unconditionally supporting Israel and show to the world that she is in favour of a just solution of the Issue. Unless the USA seriously follows a just policy on Palestine and keeps on supporting the mass killings by the Israel, the desperate innocent youths of Palestine will keep on going for suicide attacks to make their voice heard as all of their hopes through other means have been failing for the past half century.

RECOMMENDATIONSRestoring Law and Order in

Afghanistan, Somalia and Other Such Like Countries. To deny Al-Qaida a base of operations and a safe heaven, law and order has to be brought in Afghanistan, Somalia and other such like countries. Unless a rule of law exists in these countries, the war lords will keep on giving shelter to all type of terrorist organisations for the want of money.

RECOMMENDATIONS Drying Up the Financial Resources.

Drying up the financial resources of terror is vital to end the terrorist threat. More than 112 nations have issued blocking orders and frozen assets used to finance operation of Al-Qaida, which have been found everywhere from bank accounts in the United States to relief organizations in Europe and chains of honey shops in the Middle East. The 29-nation Financial Action Task Force has played a particularly active role in coordinating efforts to identify and stop financial flows to terrorist organizations. If effective financial control can be maintained on resources of Al-Qaida, then it will run out of the fuel necessary to keep the flames of terrorism alive.

RECOMMENDATIONS• Military Action. Military action against Al-

Qaida and Taliban has brought quite encouraging results. The network of Al-Qaida has been disrupted and many of their hardcore members have either been killed or arrested. A few of the top executives including Usama Bin Laden are still at large. Once arrested, all suspected Al-Qaida members involved in various terrorist acts should be brought to justice through open and fair court trials. Inhuman acts of torture to the arrested members being kept at various US military bases like Camp Delta in Guantanmao as shown by world media will invite retaliatory attacks and will further aggravate the situation.

RECOMMENDATIONS• Infil of al Qaida Network. There can be

no better way to defeat al qaida than from the inside. It reqs an int collaboration on the intl forum especially of those ctys with high stakes in the global war on terrorism (GWOT). The knowledge of their future plan coupled with their modus operandi would result in unearthing complete cells of al qaida.

CONCL