aimes: analysis, integration and modelling of the earth system
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AIMES: Analysis, Integration and
Modelling of the Earth System
Peter Cox Co-Chair of AIMES
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AIMES Scientific Steering Committee
Sander van der Lueew
Dave Schimel
Marko Scholze
Kathy Hibbard
Victor Brovkin
Tim Lenton
Jae Edmonds Bala
Govindaswamy
Almut Arneth Mark Rounsevell
Pati Pinho
Gilberto Gallopin
Kiyoshi Takahashi
Taka Hirata
Refugee from 70’s
Lisa Alexander
Ana Paula Aguia
Duarte Costa
AIMES Tools & Expertise
Earth System Modelling
Integrated Assessment Modelling
Earth System Observations
Model-Data Fusion
Climatic Extremes
Land-Use Change
Impacts of Geoengineering
Tipping Points
AIMES Themes
Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.
2012 Highlights: Model Comparison – Phytoplankton distributions obtained from different mechanisms
Introduction à Highlights à Collaborations
Provided by T. Hashioka (JAMSTEC) Hashioka et al., in press
Phyto Biomass Bloom Timing Diatom Biomass
Max Chla [mg/m3]
PISCES NEMURO PlankTOM CCSM/BEC
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Nutrient Vmax Light
Similar total Phyto. Biomass & Bloom Timing, but different Diatom distribution, due to different growth limitation mechanism
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AIMES Themes
Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.
Ø Human-Environment Coupling.
Climate Change Projection
SOCIOECONOMICS
GHG EMISSIONS
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS
IPCC WG3
IPCC WG1
IPCC WG2
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMY
Simple Climate-Economy Model
Background CO2 Emissions Growth-rate of 1% and 4%
Without climate impacts on economy
Economic Depression due to Environmental
change
Kellie & Cox,2011
Simple Climate-Economy Model
Kellie & Cox,2011
AIMES Themes
Ø Monitoring & Predicting Earth System Change.
Ø Human-Environment Coupling.
Ø Planet Earth as a Complex System.
Map of potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system, updated from ref. 5 and overlain on global population density
Lenton T. M. et.al. PNAS 2008
Tipping Points (Lenton et al., 2008)
Small Sensitivity to Forcing
Larger Sensitivity to Forcing
Stable Equilibrium
Less Stable Equilibrium
Short and Fast Oscillations
Long and Slow Oscillations
Stability, Sensitivity and Variability
Detectable Precursors of Tipping Points ?
Dakos et al., 2008; Scheffer et al., 2009
Are we looking in the
wrong place for tipping points?
What can AIMES offer to TWI2050?
Ø Knowledge of tipping points and tipping point precursors.
Ø Expertise spanning “complex” Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models.
Ø Techniques for Model-Data Fusion. Ø Decadal prediction of the human-environment
system? Ø Feedback control modelling to inform adaptive
policies?
Is Decadal Prediction the
answer to “Hiatus”
problems?
Keenlyside et al., 2008
Roberts et al., 2015