agriculture towards 2050 preliminary estimates for irrigation jippe hoogeveen, jean-marc faurès,...
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Agriculture towards 2050
Preliminary estimates for irrigation
Jippe Hoogeveen, Jean-Marc Faurès, Karen Frenken (Water Unit)
Jelle Bruinsma, Gerold Boedeker, Nikos Alexandratos (Global Perspectives Unit)
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About the study
• 142 countries • 35 crops• Interdisciplinary• No scenario-study (only base-line scenario)
The study presents FAO’s estimates of what will happen in the future. They are not the result of a
particular scenario nor do they represent a particularly ‘desirable’ future
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Driving forces
Per capita food consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Kca
l /
per
son
/ d
ay
World
Developing countries
Industrial countries
Transition countries
Population
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Mil
lio
ns
World
Developing countries
Industrial countries
Transition countries
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Sources of growth in developing countries
(2005/07 – 2050)
Arable Land Expansion
21%
Cropping Intensity
10%
Yield increase
69%
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Sources of growth in production
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Yield gaps(wheat)
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Harvested area increases 2005/07 – 2050
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
World(2005-07)
World(2050)
Developingcountries(2005-07)
Developingcountries
(2050)
Industrial +Transitioncountries(2005-07)
Industrial +Transitioncountries
(2050)
1000
ha.
Irrigated
Rainfed
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Changes in irrigated land and accompanying
water withdrawals
Renewable water resources (cubic km)
Areas currently equipped for irrigation(Million ha)
Change in irrigated areas 2050
Irrigation water withdrawal 2005 / 07 (cubic km)
Change in water withdrawal 2050
Pressure on water resources due to irrigation in 2005 / 07
Pressure on water resources due to irrigation in 2050
World 43000 277 15% 2685 9% 6% 7%
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Changes in irrigated land and accompanying
water withdrawals
Renewable water resources (cubic km)
Areas currently equipped for irrigation(Million ha)
Change in irrigated areas 2050
Irrigation water withdrawal 2005 / 07 (cubic km)
Change in water withdrawal 2050
Pressure on water resources due to irrigation in 2005 / 07
Pressure on water resources due to irrigation in 2050
World 43000 277 15% 2685 9% 6% 7%
Industrial countries 9000 44 1% 367 -18% 4% 3%
Transition countries 5000 24 1% 191 -18% 4% 3%
East Asia 8700 75 16% 714 9% 8% 9%
South Asia 1800 81 14% 819 10% 46% 50%
Near East / North Africa 600 29 19% 346 23% 58% 71%
sub Saharan Africa 4000 5 46% 60 52% 2% 2% Latin America 14000 19 41% 187 39% 1% 2%
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Water balances changes due to Climate Change for the Near East and North
Africa
Standard situation
2050
Changes due to
Climate Change
Precipitation (mm) 179 1%
Renewable water resources (cubic km) 600 -5%
Irrigation water withdrawals(cubic km) 426 6%
Pressure on water resources due to irrigation 71% 11%
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Thank you !
• http://www.fao.org/nr/water/
• http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm
• http://www.fao.org/es/esd/gstudies.htm
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