aggregate planning - prolog.univie.ac.at · `two injection molding machines, 550 parts/hour `one...
TRANSCRIPT
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Chapter 5
Aggregate Planning
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Production Management 44
Supply Chain Planning Matrix
production distribution sales procurement
Strategic Network Planning
Master Planning
Distribution Planning
Transport Planning
Production Planning
Demand Planning
Demand Fulfilment &
ATPScheduling
Material Requirements
Planning
long
-te
rmm
id-
term
shor
t-te
rm
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Production Management 45
Supply Chain Planning Matrix
production distribution sales procurement
× materials program × plant location × physical distribution × product program× supplier selection × production system structure × strategic sales× cooperations planning
× personnel planning× material requ.
planning× contracts
× mid-term salesplanning
long
-te
rmm
id-
term
shor
t-te
rm
× master productionscheduling
× capacity planning
× distributionplanning
× personnel planning× ordering materials
× short-term salesplanning
× lot-sizing× machine scheduling× shop floor control
× warehousereplenishement
× transport planning
information flowsflow of goods
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Production Management 46
Aggregate Planning
Example:one product (plastic case)
two injection molding machines, 550 parts/hour
one worker, 55 parts/hour
steady sales 80.000 cases/month
4 weeks/month, 5 days/week, 8h/day
how many workers?
in real life constant demand is rarechange demandproduce a constant rate anywayvary production
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Production Management 47
Aggregate Planning
Influencing demanddo not satisfy demandshift demand from peak periods to nonpeak periodsproduce several products with peak demand in different period
Planning ProductionProduction plan: how much and when to make each productrolling planning horizonlong range planintermediate-range plan⌧units of measurements are aggregates⌧product family⌧plant department⌧changes in workforce, additional machines, subcontracting, overtime,...
Short-term plan
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Production Management 48
Aggregate Planning
Aspects of Aggregate PlanningCapacity: how much a production system can makeAggregate Units: products, workers,...Costs⌧production costs (economic costs!)⌧inventory costs(holding and shortage)⌧capacity change costs
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Production Management 49
Aggregate Planning
Spreadsheet MethodsZero Inventory Plan
Precision Transfer, Inc. Produces more than 300 different precision gears ( the aggregation unit is a gear!). Last year (=260 working days) Precision made 41.383 gears of various kinds with an average of 40 workers.41.383 gears per year40 x 260 worker-days/year = 3,98 -> 4 gears/ worker-day
Aggregate demand forecast for precision gear:
Month January February March April May June TotalDemand 2760 3320 3970 3540 3180 2900 19.670
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Production Management 50
Aggregate Planning
holding costs: $5 per gear per monthbacklog costs: $15 per gear per monthhiring costs: $450 per workerlay-off costs: $600 per workerwages: $15 per hour ( all workers are paid for 8 hours per day)there are currently 35 workers at Precisioncurrently no inventory
Production plan?
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Production Management 51
Aggregate Planning
Zero Inventory Plan
produce exactly amount needed per periodadapt workforce
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Production Management 52
Aggregate Planning
-2
9
2
-1
-6
-4
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
January February March April May June
Month
Num
ber o
f Wor
kers
(hire
d / l
aid
off)
Change in Workforce
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Production Management 53
Aggregate Planning
Level Work Force Planbackorders allowedconstant numbers of workersdemand over the planning horizongears a worker can produce over the horizon
19670/(4x129)=38,12 -> 39 workers are always needed
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Production Management 54
Aggregate Planning
Inventory: January: 3276 - 2760 = 516February: 516 + 3120 – 3320March: 316 + 3588 – 3670 = -66! -Backorders: 66 x $15 = $990
516
316
-66
-330
-78
0
358
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Janua
ry
Febru
ary
March
April
May
June
Month
num
ber o
f uni
ts (i
nven
tory
/ ba
ck-o
rder
s)
net inventory
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Production Management 55
Aggregate Planning
no backorders are allowedworkers= cumulative demand/(cumulative days x units/workers/day)
January: 2760/(21 x 4) = 32,86 -> 33 workersFebruary: (2760+3320)/[(21+20) x 4] = 37,07 -> 38 workers.March: 10.050/(64 x 4) =>40 workersApril: 13.590/(85 x 4) => 40 workersMay: 16.770/(107 x 4) => 40 workersJune: 19670/(129 x 4) => 39 workers
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Production Management 56
Aggregate Planning
Example Mixed PlanThe number of workers used is an educated guess based on the zeroinventory and level work force plans!
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Production Management 57
Spreadsheet Methods Summary
Zero-Inv. Level/BO Level/No BO Mixed
Hiring cost 4950 1800 2250 3150
Lay-off cost 7800 0 0 4200
Labor cost 59856 603720 619200 593520
Holding cost 0 4160 6350 3890
BO cost 0 7110 0 990
Total cost 611310 616790 627800 605180
Workers 33 39 40 35
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Production Management 58
Aggregate Planning
Linear Programming Approaches to Aggregate Planning
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Production Management 59
Aggregate Planning
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Production Management 60
Aggregate Planning
Decision Variables:number of units produced in period tnumber of workers available in period tnumber of workers hired in period t
number of workers laid off in period tnumber of units he
t
t
t
t
t
PWHLI
K
K
K
K
K ld in inventory in period tnumber of units backordered in period ttB K
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Production Management 61
Aggregate Planning
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Production Management 62
Aggregate Planning
Example: Precision TransferPlanning horizon: 6 months T= 6Costs do not vary over time Ct
P = 0dt : days in month tCt
W = $120dt
CtH = $450
CtL = $600
CtI = $5
We assume that no backorders are allowed!no production costs and no backorder costs are included!Demand⌧January February March April May June Total
2760 3320 3970 3540 3180 2900 19.670
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Production Management 63
Linear Program Model for Precision Transfer
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Production Management 64
Aggregate Planning
LP solution (total cost = $600 191,60)
Production Inventory Hired Laid off WorkersJanuary 2940,00 180,00 0,00 0,00 35,00February 3232,86 92,86 5,41 0,00 40,41March 3877,14 0,00 1,73 0,00 42,14April 3540,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 42,14May 3180,00 0,00 0,00 6,01 36,14June 2900,00 0,00 0,00 3,18 32,95
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Production Management 65
Aggregate Planning
Rounding LP solution
January February March April May June TotalDays 21 20 23 21 22 22 129Units/Worker 84 80 92 84 88 88 516Demand 2760 3320 3970 3540 3180 2900 19670Workers 35 41 42 42 36 33 229Capacity 2940 3280 3864 3528 3168 2904 19684Capacity - Demand 180 -40 -106 -12 -12 4 14Cumulative Difference 180 140 34 22 10 14 400Produced 2930 3280 3864 3528 3168 2900 19670Net inventory 170 130 24 12 0 0 336Hired 0 6 1 0 0 0 7Laid Off 0 0 0 0 6 3 9Costs 89050 101750 116490 105900 98640 88920 600750
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Production Management 66
Aggregate Planning
Practical Issues100.000 variables and 40.000 constraintsLP/MIP Solvers: CPLEX, XPRESS-MP, ...
ExtensionsBounds
tLt t
t
1 1
I
I IL 0.05
Training
Ut
Ut
t
t t t t
I
IW
W W H L− −
≤
≤ ≤≤
= + −
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Production Management 67
Aggregate Planning
Transportation Modelssupply points: periods, initial inventorydemand points: periods, excess demand, final inventory
Pt
It
capacity during period tforecasted number of units demanded in period t
C the cost to produce one unit in period t
C the cost to hold one unit in inventory in period t
t t
t
nWD
==
=
=
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Production Management 68
Aggregate Planning
initial inventory: 50final inventory: 75
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Production Management 69
Aggregate Planning
Availablecapacity
0 2 4 6 0 5050
10 12 14 16 0 350150 50 75 75
- 11 13 15 0 300300
- - 12 14 0 350350
Demand 1050
Excess capacity
Ending inventory
1 2 3
Beginning inventory
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
75200 300 400 75
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Production Management 70
Aggregate Planning
Extension:
⌧overtime: overtime capacity is 90, 90 and 75 in period 1, 2 and 3;⌧overtime costs are $16, $18 and $ 20 for the three periods respectively;⌧backorders:units can be backordered at a cost of $5 per unit-month;
production in period 2 can be used to satisfy demand in period 1
t 1 2 3capacity n tWt 350 350 300demand 400 300 400production costs 10 11 12holding costs 2 2 2
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Production Management 71
Aggregate Planning
Availablecapacity
0 2 4 6 025 25
10 12 14 16 0350
16 18 20 22 050 40
16 11 13 15 0275 75
23 18 20 22 090
22 17 12 14 0300
30 25 20 22 075
1305Demand
Excess capacity
Ending inventory1 2 3
130400 300 400 75
Beginning inventory
Period 1
Regular time
Overtime
Regular time
Overtime
Period 3
Regular time
Overtime
Period 2
90
350
50
75
300
90
350
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Production Management 72
Aggregate Planning
Disaggregating Plansaggregate units are not actually produced, so the plan should consider individual productsdisaggregationmaster production schedule
Questions:In which order should individual products be produced?⌧e.g.: shortest run-out time
How much of each product should be produced?⌧e.g.: balance run-out time
iii DIR /=
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Production Management 73
Aggregate Planning
Advanced Production Planning ModelsMultiple Productssame notation as beforeadd subscript i for product i
Objective function
∑ ∑= =
⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎝
⎛++++
T
t
N
iit
Iitit
Pitt
Ltt
Htt
Wt ICPCLCHCWC
1 1
min
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Production Management 74
Aggregate Planning
N
i=1
1
it 1
it,
subject to
1 1, 2,...,
t=1,2,...,TI t=1,2,...,T; i=1,2,...,N
P , , , 0 t=1,2,...,T; i=1,2,...,N
it tit
t t t t
it it it
t t t it
P W t Tn
W W H LI P D
W H L I
−
−
⎛ ⎞≤ =⎜ ⎟
⎝ ⎠
= + −= + −
≥
∑
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Production Management 75
Aggregate Planning
Computational Effort:
10 products, 12 periods: 276 variables, 144 constraints
100 products, 12 periods: 2436 variables, 1224 constaints
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Production Management 76
Aggregate Planning
Example: Carolina Hardwood Product Mix⌧Carolina Hardwood produces 3 types of dining tables; ⌧There are currently 50 workers employed who can be hired and laid off at
any time;⌧Initial inventory is 100 units for table1, 120 units for table 2 and 80 units for
table 3;
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Production Management 77
Aggregate Planning
⌧The number of units that can be made by one worker per period:
⌧Forecasted demand, unit cost and holding cost per unit are:
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Production Management 78
Aggregate Planning
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Production Management 79
Aggregate Planning
Multiple Products and Processes
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Production Management 80
Aggregate Planning
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Production Management 81
Aggregate Planning
Example: Cactus Cycles process planCC produces 2 types of bicycles, street and road;Estimated demand and current inventory:
available capacity(hours) and holding costs per bike:
t Machine Worker Street Road1 8600 17000 5 62 8500 16600 6 73 8800 17200 5 7
Capacity(hours) Holding
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Production Management 82
Aggregate Planning
process costs ( process1, process2) and resource requirement per unit:
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Production Management 83
Aggregate Planning
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Production Management 84
Aggregate Planning
solution: Objective Function value = $368,756.25
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Production Management 85
Aggregate Planning - Extensions
Hopp/Spearman, S. 522-540Notation:
tperiodin produced iproduct ofamount ...Xit
)a t with(consisten units in t period in j on workstatiofcapacity ciproduct ofunit one produce toj on workstation required timea
tperiod in sold iproduct ofamount product ofunit one fromprofit net r
ijjt
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Production Management 86
Aggregate Planning - Extensions
Backorders
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Production Management 87
Aggregate Planning - Extensions
Overtime
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Production Management 88
Aggregate Planning - Extensions
Yield loss
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Production Management 89
Aggregate Planning - Extensions
Basic model + Yield loss extension (no backorders)
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Production Management 90
Aggregate Planning - WorkforcePlanning
Single product, workforce resizing, overtime allocationNotation
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Production Management 91
Aggregate Planning - WorkforcePlanning
LP formulation: maximize net profit, including labor, overtime, holding, and hiring/firing costssubject to constraints on sales, capacity,...
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Production Management 92
AP-WP Example
Revenue: 1000$worker capacity: 168h/monthinitially 15 workersno initial inventoryholding costs: 10$/unit/monthregular labor costs: 35$/hourovertime: 150% of regularhiring costs: 2500$ (2500/168 ~ 15$ per man-hour)lay-off costs: 1500$ (1500/168 ~ 9$ per man-hour)no backorderingdemands over 12 months:
200, 220, 230, 300, 400, 450, 320, 180, 170,170, 160, 180demands must be met! (S=D)
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Production Management 93
AP-WP Example(cont.)
Determine over a 12 month horizon:Number of workers: WOutput: XOvertime use: OInventory: I(H, F are additional choice variables in the model)
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Production Management 94
Aggregate Planning - WorkforcePlanning
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Production Management 95
Aggregate Planning - WorkforcePlanning
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Production Management 96
Aggregate Planning - WorkforcePlanning
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Production Management 97
Aggregate Planning-Summary
The following scenarios have been discussed:
single product, single resource, single processfind: workforce, output, inventory (w. or w/o backorders)
multiple products, single resource, single processfind: workforce, all outputs, all inventories (w. or w/o backorders)
multiple products, multiple resources, multiple processes(workforce given)find: all outputs, all inventories, use of processes
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Production Management 98
Aggregate Planning-Summary
The following scenarios have been discussed:
multiple products, multiple workstations(workstation capcities given)find: all sales, all outputs, all inventories (w. or w/o backorders)
multiple products, multiple workstationsfind: all sales, all outputs, all inventories (w. or w/o backorders), OT
single product, multiple workstations, one resourcefind: workforce, all sales, all outputs, all inventories (w. or w/o backorders),
OT
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Production Management 99
Aggregate Planning
Work to do:
Examples: 5.7, 5.8abcdef, 5.9abcd, 5.10abcd, 5.16abcd, 5.21, 5.22, 5.29, 5.30
Replace capacity columns of table in problem 5.29 withMonth Machine Worker1 1350 190002 1270 190003 1350 19500
Minicase BF SWING II