agenda · 2016-07-14 · market research . our research edge ... some concerns in a slow in intl...
TRANSCRIPT
Themes – What’s Changing
U.S. Cycle
Results by Brand Co/REIT
Did Group Momentum Continue Though 3Q/2H?
OTA’s
Summary
Agenda
CLEVELAND RESEARCH Lodging Industry Insights
HSMAI Revenue Optimization Conference
June 15, 2015
Vince Ciepiel, CFA
Senior Research Analyst
(216) 649-7253
Important Disclosures can be Found in Appendix
Cleveland Research and Stocks Overview
U.S. Cycle
Results by Brand Co/REIT
Group Momentum Continue Though 1Q
OTA’s
Summary
Agenda
CRC Overview
4
Who is Cleveland Research?
An independent research firm headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. Founded in
2006, Cleveland Research includes:
15 research teams
Across 50 key channels
Publishing research on over 150 companies
We pride ourselves on a disciplined research process that has us regularly and
deeply engaged with the industries and companies we cover.
Our partners find value from getting in front of key themes and trends that lead to
faster and better strategic and financial decisions.
What is happening now?
Why is it happening?
What happens next?
5
Cleveland Research Customers
6
Channel Intelligence
Equity Research
Market Research
Our Research Edge
Regular interaction with hundreds of companies across the
entire channel
Quickly identify inflections with accuracy - not just the “what”
but the “why” and “so what”
Unique relationships and interactions with senior management
teams at the largest public companies
Financial forecasts that can be used for budgeting/strategic
planning purposes
Actionable insights that provide in-depth and timely information
on key markets for your teams to stay ahead of the curve
7
Lodging Stock 101
8
Moving Target Around Moving Target
How much are companies worth?
A. Future Earnings (EPS) = $2.00
B. Multiple = 10x (Growth, Risk, Durability, Conversion to Cash)
C. Yields a $20 stock The market casts its vote on A and B daily
When is a Stock Mispriced (Opportunity to Make Money)?
The market thinks A = $2.00/share
In reality A = $3.00/share
Channel Research is how we determine A
In order to make money in stocks, you must be: Early, Different, and
Right
Stocks are forward looking (it’s all about expectations)
What’s the point?
Allocate capital to the most efficient co that delivers best risk adj returns
9
Keys for Lodging Stocks
Consumer discretionary
Good businesses bid up (SBUX, CMG, HD, COST)
Brands
RevPAR Growth (Comp, Same Store Sales)
Health of business/brand and industry - Cyclical
Room Growth (Sq Ft Growth, Store Growth, Unit Growth)
Long term trajectory/bigger picture earnings opportunity – Secular
REIT’s
RevPAR Growth
Renovations/Capital Deployment
Margin Opportunity
Deal Activity
Interest rate sensitivity
10
Stocks Continued
2nd Derivative
Increasing at a decreasing rate?
Good group in general?
Which stock specifically?
Expectations – pressure emanates from top
Penalty box – can’t catch a break
Which side of the fence – non-consensus or too consensus
11
What investors/analysts trying to figure out?
Valuation Game
Multiple relates to EBITDA growth/durability in next few years
The next considerations would be How much of that comp price vs. volume and is over and above cost inflation in the business/falls to profit.
If the new stores have higher returns/yield some operating leverage pivoting off some fixed overhead cost base
What they do with that ebitda (maintenance capex, growth capex, or pay div/buyback stock) aka how it converts to free
cash
Grade the durability of the cash flow stream in a downturn
How to lever the business (a byproduct of the durability)
What returns on invested capital look like/are they using their own or others balance sheet to drive sq ft growt
Vs. Other Industries Brands – 14x, MSD comp, MSD rooms; REIT – 13x, high 20s margin, MSD comp
RCL – 12x, mid 20s margin, LSD comp, MSD capacity
SBUX – 18x, high 20s ebitda margin, MSD Comp, HSD stores
CMG – 18x, low 20s margin, MSD Comp, LDD stores
COST –13x, LSD margins, MSD Comp, 4% stores
KR – 8x, MSD margin, 4% comp, 1% stores
SHW – 16x, Midteen margin, MSD comp LSD stores
HD – 12x, Midteen margin, MSD Comp, No store growth
12
What I am trying to figure out
Momentum in the business
Higher or lower level of growth vs. last q?
Higher or lower level of growth next q vs. what seeing now?
Business vs. Expectations
Better, worse, or inline with your budget?
Feel better, worse, or same vs. 90 days ago about next q and full yr?
Underperformers and Outperformers
13
TTM Performance Brand’s
14
TTM Performance REIT’s
15
YTD Performance Brand’s
16
YTD Performance REIT’s
17
Theme’s – What are we seeing?
18
1H15 Themes
1Q showed a similar level of yr/yr growth vs. what seen in 4Q – heading into the releases, there
was some concern that the 1Q results would decelerate more meaningfully (STR showed 90bps
deceleration to 7.9% vs. 8.8% in 4Q) as a result of 1.) bad weather, 2.) poor NY results, 3.) earlier
Easter/hurt last wk in March.
2Q outlooks largely positive. Most co’s expecting similar to better yr/yr growth in 2Q vs. what
was seen in 1Q. Group business setting up nicely, and key cities headed in right direction. 3Q
looks good as well, but perhaps less favorable of a set up given the 1.) tougher comps and 2.)
some concerns in a slow in intl arrivals for summer travel in July/Aug
Occupancy gains in general have been better than expected 3-6 months ago. Stronger USD
has yet to meaningfully decrease international arrivals/stays. Where is the extra rate?
2015 outlook still calling for 5-7% growth for the brands (avg growth was 6.7% in 2014, and
4.4% in 2013) and 5-7% for the REITS (avg growth was 8.4% in 2014, and 5.5% in 2013). Of the
20 publicly traded hotel cos, 4 positively revised their full yr outlook by 50bps, while the rest
maintained the RevPAR range set 3 months ago.
Group growth in 1Q was similar to levels seen in 4Q and in line with 2015 pace levels.
OTA – Domestic growth slowing; FX headwinds persist
19
1H15 Themes – What’s Changing
20
6.3%
7.6%
8.7%
7.6%
10.7% 10.5%
6.3%
7.2%
8.4%
6.4%6.9%
10.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Brand Co's Full Service REIT's Select Service REIT's
Publicly Traded Hotel Co's RevPAR Growth
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15Source: Company Filings, Cleveland Research
WW RevPAR Growth Trends – Lodging Brands
6.6%6.2%
4.4%5.1% 5.1%
3.0%
8.4%
11.2%
6.6% 6.8%
5.2%
7.4%
5.9%
1.7%
8.2%
9.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
HLT MAR HOT H IHG WYN LQ CHH
Brand Co's Worldwide RevPAR Growth
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15Source: Company Filings
3.2%
7.7%8.3%
10.3%
6.9%7.4% 7.5%
6.0%
3.8%
5.4%
7.9%
4.0%
10.9%
6.6%
9.5%
7.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
HST LHO DRH RHP BEE PEB CHSP SHO
Full Service Lodging REIT's RevPAR Growth
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15Source: Company Filings
2015 Outlook – What we are seeing
Our work suggests that April and May U.S. RevPAR performance looks to have continued the
positive momentum from 1Q; 1Q growth appears to be tracking in line with industry
participants expectations.
Some have noted that 2Q growth levels (through May) are maybe 50-100bps off of 1Q yr/yr
growth levels, but that June looks quite strong.
Most respondents are seeing the full yr track ~100bps better than budgeted levels.
Survey feedback continues to show Transient and Group business on the books for this summer
and into the 2H pacing ahead of last yr with both roomnights and rates positive, supportive
for continued mid-single digit RevPAR growth
Group demand on the books for the next 12-18 months continues to pace positive; operators
feeling more confident in the trajectory of Group from a rate, occupancy, and Food & beverage
perspective
22
NYU Conference Thoughts
Where are we in the cycle? – This question seems to come up on every panel at every
conference. The consensus answer is the 5th-7th inning. We heard this answer 6 mo’s ago, 12 mo’s
ago, and 18 mo’s ago, meaning these mid/late innings are quite long innings.
What’s making headlines? – Big announcement out of the Brand Co’s, was Starwood’s 10 point
plan to refresh the Sheraton brand. Feedback from owners/industry participants suggests that a
brand refresh without a significant capital investment on the part of the owners, is likely to only
modestly move the needle. Barry Sternlicht’s comments on Starwood (on valuation levels, on
management/company focus, on consolidation) were also in focus.
What’s the tone? – This conference felt similar to the other’s we have attended in that the tone
was quite upbeat as most industry participants feel quite good about the propensity for this cycle
to continue for another few years. Financing is readily available/quite competitive for the right
deal in the right markets, but standards are still quite high/good track record required.
What’s the discussion centered around? – The hot topics were the competitive landscape
(Expedia/Priceline/AirBnB), brand proliferation/lifestyle & boutique hotels, the success in the
select serve boom/fate of full service, engaging millennials/loyalty programs, discussions on the
trajectory of hotel values/interest & cap rates, international travel (and expansion for the Brands),
and New York (had a worse than expected 1Q, but is likely the low point of the yr for the city).
23
NYU Key Quotes
“If we lose a couple customers, its strong enough that we can backfill it. Good position to take
chances and raise price. Outlook for group pace on a comp basis to prior yrs has never been
better.”
“Highest occupancy on record…we don’t even know what kind of pricing power we will have
(have never seen this before). Our view is…go do more, if wrong can always pull back. We are
telling our guys to push rates harder, and it sticking in 90% of the cases.”
“Most surprising right now is the amount of capital coming in from China and Mid E. Seeing
major buyers getting money out of China/Asia and coming into the U.S. and paying big prices.
The Chinese investor…while we think in 5-7 yr horizons…they think in 50-100 yr horizons.”
“We believe there is still room to run in cycle—investors understand why we have deployed a
significant amount of equity into the space. Property prices in US have surpassed peak pricing in
almost all asset classes, but lodging is still below”
“Presumption is they have to go back up, I don’t think that is the case. Already seeing negative
rates in Europe….nothing written anywhere that just because you are a borrower that you need to
pay the lender instead of the other way around. I think they can go negative in a material way.
Lower they go the more valuable the cash streams are from the assets we own. Quantitative
easing is just about out of gas so what else can they do? Taking interest rates negative is one of
the options.
24
US Cycle Review
25
Math of the Cycle
Cycle – Should be an elongated upcycle; demand is expected to outpace supply for the next 12-18
months supporting a modest build in occupancy and solid rate growth
Supply - While supply growth is creeping up modestly, “over-building” does not appear to be a
concern/something likely for the foreseeable future. Supply growth is expected to remain below
2% through 2017, below the anticipated demand growth of ~2.5%
Duration - 2015 marks the 6th year of the upcycle with YTD demand growth of 4.5% (in line
with 2014 levels) outpacing supply growth of 0.9% (also in line with 2014 levels). 57 months
into the current upcycle vs. 56 in the prior and 112 from the 90’s cycle.
Occupancy - Levels are at all-time highs north of 65%, ahead of the prior peak of 63.1% in 2007
and 64.9% in 1995. Occupancy build YTD has been higher than anticipated 6-12 months ago.
Rate - Rate is anticipated to grow just above 5% in 2015, which is in line with the levels
anticipated 6-12 months ago and just ahead of 2014 growth of 4.6%. As of 2014, rates were 11%
ahead of prior peak (00’s cycle saw 23% peak to peak ADR growth, 90’s cycle saw 45% peak to
peak ADR growth) and in line with the prior peak on an inflation adjusted basis (00’s cycle saw
inflation adjusted ADR 2% ahead of prior peak, 90’s cycle reached 11% ahead of prior peak).
26
U.S. Cycle – S&D
Demand growth outpaces supply
Occupancy Rises => Raise Price
Early innings driven by occupancy
Later innings driven by rate
27
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5E
201
6E
201
7E
Supply & Demand Growth Estimates
Supply DemandSource: CRC Estimates, STR, Industry Sources
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%1
98
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5E
201
6E
201
7E
Occupancy and ADR Contribution to RevPAR Growth Estimates
OCC ADRSource: CRC Estimates, STR, Industry Sources
U.S. Pipeline
Pipeline Picking Up
Supply trending up towards 2%
Large Brand Co’s Represent
~2/3rds of pipeline
28
Yr/Yr Q/Q % of
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Growth Growth Existing
Under Construction
Rooms ('000s) 114 126 134 136 141 24% 5% 2.9%
Hotels 885 970 1,062 1,086 1,117
Starts Next 12 Months
Rooms ('000s) 161 161 165 160 190 18% 15% 3.9%
Hotels 1,327 1,354 1,375 1,351 1,599
Early Planning
Rooms ('000s) 131 134 145 164 158 20% 9% 3.2%
Hotels 1,014 987 1,079 1,208 1,169
Total Pipeline
Rooms ('000s) 406 421 444 461 488 20% 10% 10.0%
Hotels 3,226 3,311 3,516 3,645 3,885
Source: Lodging Econometrics
U.S. Pipeline
1.6%
1.0%
0.4% -0.1%0.2%
1.2%
2.4%
2.8%
1.7%
0.5% 0.5%
0.8%0.9%
1.3%1.6%
1.9%
(20)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5E
201
6E
201
7E
Supply Growth (Net) and % Growth on Exisitng Supply'000 Rooms
Source: Lodging Econometrics, CRC Estimates
Occupancy ahead; ADR about in line
We’re there!
29
U.S. Cycle – Occupancy is there
Tends to peak at the mid 60% level
Occupancy at all time highs
2014 just ahead of prior peak
2016 trajectory in line with mid 90’s
peak
30
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5E
201
6E
201
7E
U.S. Lodging Industry Occupancy
Source: CRC Estimates, STR, Industry Sources
-0.4%-0.2%
1.3%2.7%
90
95
100
105
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Peak to Peak Occupancy
'90 to '00 '00 to '07 '07 to '17E
Yrs in
Cycle
Indexed to
Prior Peak
Source: STR,
CRC Estimates
U.S. Cycle – Time for Some ADR
We are all trusting you to push price
2014 inline on inflation adjusted basis
Lower when adjusted for mix
31
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5E
201
6E
201
7E
U.S. Lodging Industry ADR
Source: CRC Estimates, STR, Industry Sources
11%
2%
-1%
11%
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Peak to Peak Inflation Adj. ADR Growth
'90 to '00 '00 to '07 '07 to '17E
Yrs in
Cycle
Indexed to
Prior Peak
Source: STR,
Cleveland Research
Yrs in
Cycle
Current Cycle vs. Prior
RevPar 13% ahead of 2007 levels
Typically 7 year up-cycles
2015 marks 6th year
Overbuild, demand shock, or both
32
45%
22%
13%
34%
75
100
125
150
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Peak to Peak RevPAR Growth
'90 to '00 '00 to '07 '07 to '17E
Yrs in
Cycle
Indexed to
Prior Peak
Source: STR,
CRC Estimates
Assumes RevPAR
Growth 2015 - 2017
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5E
201
6E
201
7E
U.S. Lodging Industry RevPAR
Source: CRC Estimates, STR, Industry Sources
U.S. Cycle – RevPAR Inflation Adj
RevPar in line with 2007 levels
when adj for inflation
Growth through 2017 puts up 16%
vs. 10% in 90’s and 2% in 00’s
33
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5E
201
6E
201
7E
Inflation Adjusted RevPAR
Source: CRC Estimates, STR, Industry Sources
10%2%
1%
16%
75
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Peak to Peak Inflation Adj. RevPAR Growth
'90 to '00 '00 to '07 '07 to '17E
Yrs in
Cycle
Indexed to
Prior Peak
Source: STR,
CRC Estimates
U.S. Summary
34
5.6%
1.6%
3.9%
0.8%
2.2%
8.4%
3.6%
4.6%
0.9%
4.5%
6.8%
1.5%
5.2%
1.3%
2.8%
5.5%
0.5%
5.0%
1.6%2.1%
5.1%
0.1%
5.0%
1.9% 2.0%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
RevPAR Growth Occupancy Growth ADR Growth Supply Growth Demand Growth
Total U.S. Performance Estimates
Source:CRC Estimates, STR, PKF, PWC
13 14 15 16 17 13 14 15 16 17 13 14 15 16 17 13 14 15 16 17 13 14 15 16 17
1Q Results Summary
35
1H15 Brand and REIT Key Themes
36
Brand Co’s RevPAR Growth Strength in both N. Am and Intl
Transient Leisure Remains Strong; Improving Mix
Corporate Continues to Improve, Group Momentum persists
Midscale/Economy continued momentum from turn in 2014
U.S. a bright spot, Asia Improving, Europe Improving, Afr/Mid E. easy comps
Occupancy the positive surprise this year
For Most Brands/REITS, Occupancy now above prior peak
Rate showing progress but needs to accelerate
1Q right on track
Brands – 6.4% in 1Q inline with the 6.3% in 4Q ; 2015 guide is 6.3% (2014 was up 6.7%)
REITS – 8.1% in 1Q inline with 7.7% in 4Q ; 2015 guide is up 6.3% (vs. 2014 up 8.4%)
2015 Full Year RevPAR Growth Outlooks calling for 5-7% N. Am and 4-6% Intl
1Q15 Results and 2014 Guidance
37
Market
Ticker Company Cap ($B) 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013 2014 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Loding Brand Co's
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc. $29.2 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 4.7% 6.6% 6.7% 8.4% 6.6% 6.6% 5.3% 7.3% 6-7% 5-7% 5-7% 5-7% 5-7%
MAR Marriott International, Inc. Class A $22.2 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.3% 6.2% 5.8% 8.1% 6.2% 6.8% 4.6% 6.6% 5-7% 5-7% 5-7% 5-7% 5-7%
HOT Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc. $14.6 5.0% 4.4% 4.7% 4.3% 6.3% 5.3% 7.4% 4.4% 5.2% 4.9% 5.8% 3-5% 4-6% 5-7% 5-7% 5-7%
H Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A $8.5 3.2% 4.6% 5.6% 5.9% 7.7% 6.1% 8.0% 5.1% 7.4% 4.9% 6.7% --- --- --- --- ---
IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC Sponsored ADR$10.2 3.3% 4.1% 3.4% 4.4% 6.0% 5.8% 7.0% 5.1% 5.9% 3.8% 6.1% --- --- --- --- ---
WYN Wyndham Worldwide Corporation $10.4 4.0% 2.1% 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 5.6% 4.6% 3.0% 1.7% 3.4% 4.4% --- --- --- 5-7% 5-7%
LQ La Quinta Holdings, Inc. $3.2 6.7% 7.7% 8.9% 8.4% 8.2% 5.5% 8.0% --- --- --- --- 5.5-7% 6-7%
CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. $3.3 4.6% 3.5% 3.0% 1.3% 5.6% 7.6% 8.4% 11.2% 9.6% 3.0% 8.5% 9% 11.0% 6.5-8% 6.5-8%
Average 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.1% 6.1% 6.3% 7.6% 6.3% 6.4% 4.4% 6.7% 6.4% 7.0% 6.0% 6.3% 6.3%
Lodging REIT's
Full Service:
HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. $15.4 5.1% 6.1% 5.5% 6.6% 6.8% 5.1% 7.9% 3.2% 3.8% 5.8% 5.7% --- --- --- 5.0% 5.0%
LHO LaSalle Hotel Properties $4.2 5.1% 6.7% 5.1% 5.2% 4.0% 10.3% 11.5% 7.7% 5.4% 5.6% 8.8% 7-9% 4-5% 4.5-5.5% 4.5-6.5% 4.5-6.5%
DRH DiamondRock Hospitality Company $2.7 5.6% 6.7% 5.0% 3.3% 8.4% 11.9% 18.6% 8.3% 7.9% 5.3% 11.6% --- --- --- 6-7% 6-7%
RHP Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. $2.9 -1.2% -3.9% -2.7% 0.0% 6.5% 3.6% 10.2% 10.3% 4.0% -2.0% 7.5% --- --- --- 4-6% 4-6%
BEE Strategic Hotels & Resorts, Inc. $3.4 5.0% 9.9% 10.8% 9.7% 6.3% 7.2% 7.0% 6.9% 10.9% 8.8% 7.4% --- --- --- 4-6% 4.5-6.5%
PEB Pebblebrook Hotel Trust $3.0 8.5% 6.0% 6.2% 5.2% 8.5% 9.2% 11.4% 7.4% 6.6% 6.4% 9.2% 7-8% 1-3% 4-6% 6.5-7.5% 6.5-7.5%
CHSP Chesapeake Lodging Trust $1.9 5.5% 7.7% 4.2% 4.8% 12.0% 7.0% 11.4% 7.5% 9.5% 5.1% 9.5% 5.5-7% 3-4% 5.5-7.5% 7.5-9.5% 6.5-8.5%
SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. $3.3 2.1% 2.6% 7.6% 3.5% 8.6% 6.2% 7.7% 6.0% 7.0% 4.5% 6.8% 5.5-7% 5-6.5% 6-7% 5-7% 5-7%
Average 4.5% 5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 7.6% 7.6% 10.7% 7.2% 6.9% 4.9% 8.3% 7.0% 3.9% 5.8% 6.1% 6.0%
Select Service:
HPT Hospitality Properties Trust $4.6 7.2% 7.1% 8.1% 7.9% 10.1% 8.4% 11.8% 10.4% 10.1% 7.7% 10.2% --- --- --- --- ---
RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust $4.0 10.6% 8.7% 5.4% 3.9% 6.0% 6.6% 9.6% 6.0% 10.7% 7.2% 7.2% --- --- --- 5-6.5% 5-6.5%
INN Summit Hotel Properties, Inc., $1.2 6.9% 7.5% 11.4% 11.3% 10.4% 8.8% 5.7% 5-7% 9-11% 5.5-7.5% 6-8%
Average 8.9% 7.9% 6.8% 6.2% 7.9% 8.8% 10.9% 8.9% 9.9% 6.9% 8.7% 6.0% 5.8% 5.8%
Small Caps
FCH FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated $1.6 6.7% 6.3% 7.1% 7.7% 7.0% 9.2% 9.8% 9.3% 13.1% 7.1% 8.9% --- --- --- 8-9% 8.5-9.5%
CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust $1.1 4.2% 2.7% 3.5% 4.9% 7.8% 8.0% 10.5% 6.5% 7.9% 4.8% 5.5-7.5% 4-6% 5-7% 5.5-7%
Average 5.5% 4.5% 5.3% 6.3% 7.4% 8.6% 10.2% 7.9% 10.5% 6.0% 8.9% 6.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Source: Company Filings
2015 from 4Q 2015 from 1Q
Lodging Brands and REITS 2014 Guidance
RevPAR GuidanceQuarterly RevPAR Growth Annual Growth
1Q15 Update Brand Co’s – 6.4% in 1Q inline with 6.3% in 4Q ; 2015 guide is 6.3% (vs. 2014 up 6.7%)
Hilton (700k) – 6.6% in 1Q inline with 6.6% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 5-7%
Marriott (700k) – 6.8% in 1Q up from 6.2% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 5-7%
Starwood (350k) –5.2% in 1Q up from 4.4% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 5-7%
Hyatt (150k) – 7.4% in 1Q up from 5.1% in 4Q ; No Guide
IHG (150k) – 5.9% in 1Q up from 5.1% in 4Q ; No Guide
Wyndham (150k) – 1.7% in 1Q down from 3.0% in 4Q ; No Guide
Choice (150k) – 9.6% in 1Q down from 11.2% in 4Q ; Maintaining at 6.5-8%
REIT’s – 8.1% in 1Q inline with 7.7% in 4Q ; 2015 guide is up 6.3% (vs. 2014 up 8.4%)
Host (66k) – 3.8% in 1Q up from 3.2% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 5%
LaSalle (12k) – 5.4% in 1Q down from 7.7% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 4.5-6.5%
DiamondRock (12k) - 7.9% in 1Q inline from 8.3% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 6-7%
Ryman (8k) – 4.0% in 1Q down from 10.3% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 4.5-6.5%
Strategic (8k) – 10.9% in 1Q up with 6.9% in 4Q ; Up midpoint by 50bps to 4.5-6.5% from 4-6%
Pebblebrook (6k) – 6.6% in 1Q down from 7.4% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 6.5-7.5%
Chesapeake (6k) – 9.5% in 1Q up from 7.5% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 6.5-8.5%
Sunstone(13k) – 7.0% in 1Q up from 6.0% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 5-7%
Hospitality Prop. Trust (44k) – 10.1% in 1Q inline with 10.4% in 4Q;
RLJ(21k) – 10.7% in 1Q up from 6.0% in 4Q ; Maintaining full yr at 6-8%
Summit (11k) – 8.8% in 24.1% inline from 10.4% in 4Q ; Up midpoint by 50bps to 5-7% from 5.5-7%
FelCor (18k) –13.1% in 1Q up from 9.3% in 4Q ; Up range 50bps to 8-9% from 8.5-9.5%
Chatham (3k) – 7.9% in 1Q up from 6.5% in 4Q ; Up midpoint 50bps to 5-7% from 5.5-7%
38
Big Picture Brand
All saw similar yr/yr growth in domestic RevPAR
International showed sequential acceleration
39
6.7%5.8%
5.3%
8.4% 8.1%7.4%
6.6%6.2%
4.4%
6.6% 6.8%
5.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
HLT MAR HOT
Systemwide Quarterly RevPar by Brand
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15Source: Company Filings
4.3%4.8%
4.1%
7.2%
5.6% 5.4%5.8%
4.6%
2.7%
6.9% 6.7%
3.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
HLT MAR HOT
International Quarterly RevPar by Brand
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15Source: Company Filings
7.3%
6.0% 6.3%
8.8% 8.7%9.1%
6.8% 6.7%5.8%
6.5%6.9% 6.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
HLT MAR HOT
Domestic Quarterly RevPar by Brand
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15Source: Company Filings
2015 Outlook by Brand: 5-7%
Good growth expected to continue
U.S. – likely grows 5-7%; Group pace and transient momentum strong
Intl – likely grows 4-6%; Mixed by geography
HLT looking for 5-7%
N. Am strength to persist; Group pacing up mid to high singles
MAR looking for 5-7%
N. Am leads growth; Group pacing up 4%, same level at this time last year.
HOT looking for 5-7%
Expects N. America at the higher end and international at the lower end. Group pacing up mid singles
H does not guide but noted that Group is pacing up 8% (in line with last call)
40
Hilton – Consistent US Strength
Keys to the Story
Continue to drive RevPAR and Units 6+
Margin in Owned – U.S. driven Story
Stock – Blackstone, S&P, De-leverage, Dividend
Value Creation Opportunities – Spin Owned or Timeshare
1Q Systemwide RevPAR up 6.6% (was 6.6% in 4Q) on US growth fairly consistent at up
6.5% (6.8% in 4Q) and International showing a modest step up 6.9% ( 5.8% in 4Q)
41
6.6% 5.5% 5.4%
10.1%
6.6%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Americas Europe Mid E./Afr Asia Pac Worldwide
HLT 1Q15 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.8% 6.9% 6.7%
2.9%
6.6%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Americas Europe Mid E./Afr Asia Pac Worldwide
HLT 4Q14 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
HLT – N. Am Stepping Up
42
4.7%
6.7% 7.4%
8.7%
6.8% 6.6%
5.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Americas RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
4.7%
6.6% 6.7%
8.4%
6.6% 6.6%
5.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Total RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
4.6%
6.5%
4.4%
6.6% 6.9%
5.5%
3.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
(3.2%)(0.6%)
(3.4%)
15.5%
6.7% 5.4% 6.4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Mid E./Afr RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
8.6% 8.7%
4.8%
3.4% 2.9%
10.1%
7.0%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Hilton Themes
U.S. Strong, USD no meaningful impact yet, Lower fuel prices could benefit
Looking at the U.S. specifically, HLT noted that growth remained solid at up 6.5% (6.8% in 4Q)
as they effectively offset about 100bps of weather related headwinds in the quarter (50bps in Jan,
300bps in Feb). They remain confident in the trajectory of their brands in the backdrop of
favorable industry fundamentals of demand continuing to outpace muted supply growth. In terms
of the stronger USD impacting international arrivals/guest stays, HLT noted that a.) it only
represents about 5% of their room nights and b.) International business was actually up 0.5%
yr/yr in 1Q. This is similar to MAR’s commentary on the subject. Europe (specifically Germany
and France) was down slightly but China was still up yr/yr. Looking into the summer months,
they expect more of the same (Europe a bit softer, China continue to grow). They also highlighted
that lower fuel prices should translate to incremental travel of domestic guests this summer,
which is a potential offset. Management noted that travel to Europe at their hotels is up from U.S.,
the Middle East, and China as leisure guests are taking advantage of the weaker Euro.
HLT saw Group RevPAR growth of 6.8% outpace Transient growth of 6.3% in 1Q, and the
company is expecting consistent levels of growth out of both buckets of demand throughout 2015.
HLT noted that prospective group business was up significantly in the quarter and that 2Q looked
strong/was showing solid growth. HLT is still seeing the full yr Group pace up mid singles (in
line with level mentioned on prior call). Food & Beverage spend is benefiting from the
improvement in Group and HLT saw mid-single digit revenue growth across its owned and
managed portfolio.
43
Marriott – Long the U.S. and Asset Light
Keys to the Story
Continue to drive RevPAR and Units 6+
Stock – Keep it simple, Buyback machine
Aggressive with tuck-ins and new brand launches
1Q Systemwide RevPAR up 6.8% (was 6.2% in 4Q) on US growth fairly consistent at up
6.9% (6.7% in 4Q) and International showing a modest step up 6.7% ( 4.6% in 4Q)
44
6.7% 7.7%
2.7%
14.9%
2.9%
6.2%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
N. America Carib &
L. Amerca
Europe Mid E./Afr Asia Pac Worldwide
MAR 4Q14 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.9% 5.7%
7.0%
9.3%
6.2% 6.8%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
N. America Carib &
L. Amerca
Europe Mid E./Afr Asia Pac Worldwide
MAR 1Q15 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Marriott Key Themes
Both N. American and Intl Stepping Up
1Q N. American RevPAR growth came in up 6.9% (was up 6.7% in 4Q). Limited service continues to
outperform at up 8% in the quarter. In terms of specific markets, MAR called out San Fran, Boston, Dallas, San
Diego, and Tampa as posting double digit growth. 3Q International RevPAR growth came in ahead of
ours/management’s expectations at up 6.7% (CRC 4.5%, guidance +3% to +5%, was up 4.6% in 3Q) showing a
nice acceleration in growth (all regions showing mid single digit growth or better for the first time in a while).
Carib & L. America continued to show strong growth up 5.7% (up 7.7% last Q). Asia Pacific took a nice step up
to 6.2% (up 2.9% last Q), and Africa/Mid E. remained elevated at 9.3% (14.9% last Q – easy comps from
Egypt). Europe came in ahead of expectations at up 7.0% (up 2.7% last Q).
Group RevPAR up 5% in 1Q15 (was up 6% in 4Q14) and pacing up 4% for 2015 (noted 5%
on prior call); saw 10% revenue growth for Group bookings made in the quarter for the
next 12 months; 3Q15 faces tough yr/yr Group comparison
MAR saw good Group RevPAR growth in the quarter at up 5%, similar to the level seen in 4Q and in line with
the guided full yr pace target. Management noted that the remainder of 2015 is tracking up 4% as the company
faces a difficult Group comparison in 3Q15 (September of 2014 was especially strong for Group). MAR noted
that small groups continued to show strength in the quarter.
45
MAR – N. Am/Asia Pac Strong
46
4.8% 5.2% 5.2%
4.7%
6.3% 6.0%
8.7%
6.7% 6.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR N. America RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
3.3%
2.5%
3.8% 3.8%
6.4%
5.6%
4.9%
2.9%
6.2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
11.2%
5.7%
(11.3%)(10.7%)
0.4% 4.9%
15.0% 14.9%
9.3%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR Mid E./Afr RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
(1.8%)
1.2%
2.2%
3.3% 3.6%
1.6%
3.2% 2.7%
7.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.3%
6.2% 5.8%
8.1%
6.2% 6.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR Total RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.1%
4.4%
7.5% 7.1%
9.9% 10.6% 10.9%
7.7%
5.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR Carib. & L. Am RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Starwood – It’s complicated
Keys to the Story
RevPAR guidance is 5-7% range – is the upper half achievable?
Stock – Keep promises on unit growth and asset sales, Are you for sale?
Brand health – Sheraton refresh, lack of select serve, how will Tribute fair?
1Q Systemwide RevPAR up 5.2% (was 4.4% in 4Q) on strong domestic growth at up 6.8%
(5.8% in 4Q) and International still soft at up 3.2%(2.7% in 4Q)
47
6.8%
4.7%
0.4%
5.7% 5.1%
0.8%
5.2%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
N. Am L. Am G. China ROA Eur AME WW
HOT 1Q15 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
5.8%
2.8%
4.1%
1.2%
4.0%
(0.3%)
4.4%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
N. Am L. Am G. China ROA Eur AME WW
HOT 4Q14 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Starwood Key Themes
N. Am impressive and Intl still struggling
1Q N. America RevPAR growth came in at an impressive 6.8% yr/yr, ahead of the 5.8% in 4Q,
again led by rate growth. In terms of specific regions, RevPAR continues to be led by the West up
double digits ( was up 9% in 4Q) and South up 8% (was up 8% in 4Q). HOT continued to see
softer performance in the North region as New York and weather muted performance to the 4.6%
level. HOT noted that Group growth was up 6% in 1Q and is pacing up mid singles for the year as
a whole (a step ahead of the low singles called out on the prior call). Production in the quarter for
the quarter and in the quarter for all future periods was solid at up double digits. On the
international front, HOT showed similar growth at up 3.2% in 1Q (was up 2.7% in 4Q). Europe
was up 5.1% (up 4.0% in 4Q), L. America up 4.7% (up 2.8% in 4Q), Africa/Mid E down 0.8%
(was up -0.3% in 4Q), China up 0.4% (was up 4.1% in 4Q), and Rest of Asia remained soft at up
5.7% (was 1.2% in 4Q).
Sheraton Refresh
Adam Aaron - It took Sheraton some time to get into its current state, so it’s going to take the
Sheraton brand some time to improve, but improve we think that it will. And we think it’ll improve
two ways. One, for people who have Sheraton hotels today entrusted to us, we think we will be
delivering better top-line revenue and better bottom-line profitability for our owners. We also
think it will give more encouragement to the hotel developer community generally that Sheraton
is a brand that is a good place to entrust their hotel asset.
48
Starwood Growth by Region
49
5.0%
4.4% 4.7%
5.3%
6.3%
5.3%
7.4%
4.4%
5.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT Total RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.2%
5.2% 5.8% 6.1%
7.1%
6.3%
9.1%
5.8%
6.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT N. America RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
2.3% 2.9%
4.8%
6.1%
2.8%
4.7%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT L. America RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
(1.3%)
2.5% 1.9%
3.9%
2.5%
1.9%
6.1%
4.0%
5.1%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
7.3% 7.5%
0.6%
2.0% 2.1%
(0.9%)
4.7%
(0.3%)0.8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT Africa/Mid. E RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
5.4% 0.9%
1.6% 3.5%
11.9%
11.1%
8.7%
4.1%
0.4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT Greater China RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Hyatt – If I had a billion dollars…
Keys to the Story
6% RevPAR and 7-8% Units – Company does not guide
Stock – $1B to deploy: ROIC or wealth preservation/brand building
Confusing – Acquisitions/Dispositions
1Q Systemwide RevPAR up 7.4% (was 5.1% in 4Q)
50
8.3%
10.1%
1.4%
5.8%
7.4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Am. Full
Service
Am. Select
Service
EAME/SWA Asia Pac Worldwide
H 1Q15 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
5.8% 7.3%
2.6% 3.1%
5.1%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Am. Full
Service
Am. Select
Service
EAME/SWA Asia Pac Worldwide
H 4Q14 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Hyatt Growth by Region
51
3.2%
4.6%
5.6% 5.9%
7.7%
6.1%
8.0%
5.1%
7.4%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
H Total RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
2.8%
5.6%
7.7% 7.3%
8.6%
6.3%
8.8%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
H Americas Full Serv. RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.4% 6.0%
4.5% 4.0%
7.0%
8.4%
9.7%
7.3%
10.1%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
H Americas Limited Serv. RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.2% 6.1%
2.4%
5.0% 5.3%
3.9%
7.8%
2.6%
1.4%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
H EAME/SWA RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
(0.4%) (0.7%)
2.1%
4.2%
7.3%
5.1%
4.1%
3.1%
5.8%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
H Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Hyatt Key Themes
Worldwide RevPAR accelerated on Americas strength and improvement in Asia Pac
Am Full service RevPAR growth moderated to 8.3% (5.8% in 4Q) and Select service moderated
to up 10.1% (7.3% in 4Q). International RevPAR showed improvement with Asia Pac coming in
up 5.8% (3.1% in 4Q) and Europe/Africa/Mid E./SW Asia was softer at 1.4% (2.6% 4Q).
Group reaccelerated to up 10% in 1Q; still pacing up 7-8% for 2015
H’s Group RevPAR growth has continues to bounce around in 2015 after a lumpy 2014 (which H
as attributed to the Easter shift which impacted 2Q14 and a less favorable convention/Holiday
calendar in 4Q14/very favorable 3Q14). Group was up 10% in 1Q of which 6% was rate.
Production in the quarter for the quarter was up 15% yr/yr, and H saw strength in both association
and corporate driven group business. H again called out 2015 pacing up over 7% (in line with the
8% mentioned on the prior call. Management noted that 3Q15 is pacing a bit softer (while 2Q and
4Q look strong) due to tough Holiday compares. Early reads on 2016 Group business sounded
positive as well.
52
Stocks
53
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
MAR Stock Price - Trailing 12 Months
MARSource: Factset
$19
$21
$23
$25
$27
$29
$31
$33
HLT Stock Price - Trailing 12 Months
HLTSource: Factset
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
HOT Stock Price - Trailing 12 Months
HOTSource: Factset
$50
$52
$54
$56
$58
$60
$62
$64
$66
H Stock Price - Trailing 12 Months
HSource: Factset
Intercontinental – 4Q remains MSD
Themes from the Call
Seeing positive signs for summer travel/expects benefit from fuel
Buy vs. build – talked through Kimpton and other opportunites
1Q Systemwide RevPAR up 5.9% (was 5.1% in 4Q)
54
6.6% 6.2% 5.8% 6.2%
2.4%
5.9%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
US Americas Europe AMEA China Total
IHG 1Q15 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
7.5% 7.0%
4.2%
3.1%
(2.0%)
5.1%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
US Americas Europe AMEA China Total
IHG 4Q14 RevPAR By Geography
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Intercontinental – US Strong; Intl stepping up
55
3.3%
4.1%
3.4%
4.4%
6.0% 5.7%
7.0%
5.1%
5.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG Total RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
5.0% 5.0%
3.6% 3.0%
6.4% 6.7%
8.7%
7.5%
6.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG US RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
4.5% 4.9%
3.8% 4.0%
6.6% 6.7%
8.4%
7.0% 6.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG Americas RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
(2.1%)
1.9% 1.4%
4.9%
6.1%
4.1%
6.1%
4.2%
5.8%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
5.6%
6.8%
5.5%
6.4%
3.8% 3.6%
4.4%
3.1%
6.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG AMEA RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
2.2%
(1.5%)
0.7%
2.4%
3.9% 4.6%
0.8%
(2.0%)
2.4%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG China RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Wyndham – Dom still strong; Intl a bit softer
Domestic stable and intl moderates
Domestic RevPAR growth strong at 8-9%
Intl RevPAR soft on Wyndham in China (would have been close to flat in constant dollars)
56
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Wyndham RevPAR Worldwide Growth
RevPAR Worldwide Growth RevPAR NA Growth RevPAR Intl GrowthSource: Company Filings
Group
57
Group Key Themes
1Q15 up MSD (4Q14 up MSD, 3Q14 up HSD, 2Q14 up L-MSD and1Q14 up M-HSD)
3Q15 faces difficult comps (3Q14 growth especially high on favorable holiday calendar/city wide
line up); “Normal” September this yr vs. “Incredible” September last yr
2015 pace up MSD – different strategies on mix (trade off of transient vs. group)
Seen numerous instances of transient rooms down slightly but rates up M-HSD and Group room
and rate up MSD
Group business booked/production in 1Q for future periods up nicely in terms of rooms and rate
Favorable Mix Remains: Corporate Strong, F&B spend improving
Managing Group Business by Night
Higher number of small meetings
58
Group
7%8%
7%
5%
2% 2%
9%10%
9%8%
6%
1%
7%
5%
10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
HLT MAR H
Yr/Yr Group RevPAR Growth by Brand
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15Source: Company Filings
59
7%
7%
5%5% 5%
7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
HLT MAR H
Simple Avg. of Annual Group RevPAR
2014 2015ESource: Company Filings
Group Down Relative to Prior Peak
60
Group From 1Q15
Brand Co’s
Hilton (685k) – Up 7% in 1Q inline with 8% in 4Q, 2015 still pacing up MSD
Marriott (680k) – Up 6% in 1Q inline with 6% in 4Q, 2015 still pacing up 4%
Starwood (350k) – Up 6% in 1Q up from the LSD in 4Q; 2015 packing up MSD (up from LSD last call)
Hyatt (150k) – Up 10% in 1Q up from 1% in 4Q; Still pacing up HSD for 2015
Lodging REIT’s
Host (65k) – Group up 4% in 1Q up from the flat in 4Q; 2015 pacing up 3.5% (noted modestly on prior call);
called out 2Q pacing up more than 7%
LaSalle (12k) – Group up 6-7% inline with up 8% in 4Q; 2015 pacing up 5.4% (noted LSD on last call)
Diamond Rock (11k) – Group up 6.6% in 1Q up from the 4.7% in 4Q; 2015 Group rev still pacing up mid
singles (mentioned 4% on last call with roomnights down and rates up); 2Q flat, 3Q negative and 4Q positive
Ryman (8k) – RevPAR up 4% (guidance for flat) down from the 10.3% in 4Q; maintaining 2015 outlook up 4-
6%; 75% of business from Group. 2016 Group revenue pacing up high singles (mentioned up 5% on prior call)
Strategic (8k) – 1Q Group roomnights up 7% down from the 15% in 4Q, with rates up 6%; 2015 rooms up 3%
and rates up 3% (in line with comments on last call)
Pebblebrook (6k) – 1Q Group up 10.8% inline with the 11.5% in 4Q; 2015 revenue pace up 4% (in line with
comments on last call, renovations impacting)
Sunstone(13k) – 2015 Group pacing up 4% (in line with the 5% on prior call)
61
Group From 4Q14
Brand Co’s
Hilton (685k) – Up 8% in 4Q inline with 9% in 3Q, 2015 pacing up M-HSD
Marriott (680k) – Up 6% in 4Q down from 10% in 3Q; 2015 pacing up 4%
Starwood (350k) – Up low singles down from low doubles in 3Q; 2015 packing up LSD
Hyatt (150k) – Up 1% in 4Q down from 9% in 3Q; Still pacing up HSD for 2015
Lodging REIT’s
Host (65k) – Group Flat in 4Q in line with guidance for it to moderate (was up 10.5% in 3Q, 2% in 2Q, and
11% in 1Q); 2015 up “modestly” and 1H looks quite strong (last call noted 2015 pacing up 4%)
LaSalle (12k) – Group up 8% in 4Q inline with 9% in 3Q; 2015 pacing up 5.4% (noted LSD on last call)
Diamond Rock (11k) – Group up 4.7% in 4Q down from 26% in 3Q, 2015 Group rev pacing up 4%
(roomnights down and rates up – looking to fill with higher priced transient/alluded to this on last call)
Ryman (8k) – RevPAR up 10.3% inline with 10.2% in 3Q; Expect 2015 up 4-6%; Group rooms up slightly
Strategic (8k) – 4Q Group roomnights up 7% down from 15% in 3Q with rates up 6%; 2015 rooms up 3% and
rates up 3% (in line with comments on last call)
Pebblebrook (6k) – 4Q Group up 12%; 2015 group pace up 3% (in line with comments on last call, renovations
impacting)
Sunstone(13k) – Group pace for 2015 up 5.3% (ahead of the 1.5% on the last call; 2014 finished up 7%)
62
Group From 3Q14
Brand Co’s
Hilton (685k) – Up 9% in 3Q up from 5% in 2Q and the 7.4% in 1Q, 2015 pacing up M-HSD
Marriott (680k) – Up 10% in 3Q up from 2% in 2Q: 4Q still pacing flat; 2015 pacing up 4%
Starwood (350k) – 3Q up Low double digits up from MSD in 2Q; 4Q and 2015 packing up LSD
Hyatt (150k) – Up 9% in 3Q up from 2% in 2Q and 9% in 1Q; Still pacing up HSD for 2015
Lodging REIT’s
Host (65k) – Group up 10.5% in 3Q (up 2% in 2Q and 11% in 1Q); 4Q growth to moderate, 2015 pacing up 4%
LaSalle (12k) – Group up 9% in 3Q and pacing up 9% for 4Q and LSD for 2015
Diamond Rock (11k) – Group up 26% yr/yr in 3Q, bookings up 24% yr/yr, 4Q pace up 4%; 2015 looks good
Ryman (8k) – Group up 10.2% (ahead of 3.6% last Q); 4Q looks healthy; 2015 pacing ahead
Strategic (8k) – Roomnights up 15%; 4Q up 10%; 2015 group rooms up slightly at 3% higher rates
Pebblebrook (6k) –3Q Group solid; 4Q Group rev pacing up 12%; 2015 group pace up 4%
Sunstone(13k) – Group production up 15% putting YTD up 8%; 2014 pacing up 5.5% and 2015 up 1.5%
Felcor : Group pace up 8.5%
63
Group From 2Q14
Brand Co’s
Hilton (685k) – Up 5% in 2Q down from 7.4% in 1Q, 3Q and 4Q both pacing up HSD
Marriott (680k) – Up 2% in 2Q down from 8% in 1Q; Pacing Up 5% (inline with 5% as of May and 4% in
Feb); 3Q looking up HSD and 4Q closer to flat
Starwood (350k) – Still pacing up Mid-single digits; Seeing corporate group business strong
Hyatt (150k) – Up 2% in 2Q down from 9% in 1Q and 6% in 4Q; Production up 11% yr/yr; Pacing up LSD for
2H14 and up HSD for 2015
Lodging REIT’s
Host (65k) – Up 2% in 2Q down from up 11% in 1Q; pace 6% for 2014 up from 5.5% as of May, production up
14% yr/yr
LaSalle (12k) – Pacing up 7% (up from 4% in May and 2% in Feb)
Ryman (8k) – 2015 Group ADR tracking up MSD and 2016 ADR up HSD
Strategic (8k) – Group rooms flat in 2Q (20% 2yrs stacked) down from up 6% in 1Q; Pacing up 9% for 2014
Pebblebrook (6k) – Solid 2Q after an up 4% in 1Q; Pacing up 11.8% for 2H 2014 vs. 8% for 2014 as of May
Chesapeake (6k) – Still pacing up 15% for 2014 inline with the 15% as of May and ahead 12% as of Feb
Sunstone(13k) –Group Pacing up 6.5% up from the 5% in May and 5% in March
Felcor : Group pace up 7% for 2014 up from the 5% as of 1Q call; Group rooms up 8% YTD
64
Group From 1Q14
Brand Co’s
Hilton (685k) – Up in 7.4% in 1Q, Outpacing Transient Growth, Banquet up 12%
Marriott (680k) – Up 8% in 1Q; Pacing Up 5% (up from the 4% in Feb); 2Q/3Q looking up 6-8%, 4Q flat
Starwood (350k) – Pacing up Mid-single digits; Seeing corporate group business strong
Hyatt (150k) – Up 9% in 1Q (up 6% in 4Q); Production up 13% yr/yr; Pacing up 7% (up from 5% last Q)
Lodging REIT’s
Host (65k) – Up 11% in 1Q (up 6% in 4Q); April production up 10% yr/yr; Pacing up 5.5%
LaSalle (12k) – Pacing up 4% (up from 2% in Feb)
Ryman (8k) – April production up 100%; ADR on booked group rooms up 6%
Strategic (8k) – Group rooms flat in 2Q (20% 2yrs stacked) vs. up 6% in 1Q; Pacing up 9% for 2014
Pebblebrook (6k) – Up 4% in 1Q; Pacing up 8% for 2014
Chesapeake (6k) – Pacing up 15% (up from 13% last Q)
Sunstone(13k) – Group up 5% in 1Q; Group Pacing up 6.5% (up from 5% in March and negative 6-9 Mos ago)
65
Group Trends – Hilton
Hilton: Up 7% in 1Q inline with 8% in 4Q, 2015 still pacing up MSD
System-wide group room revenue rose 6.8% in the first quarter, supported by strong demand, especially from
small groups and company meetings. Performance was modestly ahead of system-wide transient growth of
6.3%, which benefited from strong U.S. corporate-negotiated and rack-rated business, increasing by 9% and
nearly 10%, respectively.
In group, we’re seeing strong growth at the top end of the demand funnel, with prospective group business up
significantly in the quarter year-over-year. We expect group business strength will continue, particularly in
the seasonally stronger second quarter, which is also showing solid growth. Group position continues to
track up in the mid-single digits for the full year.
I think this year we think they’re going to both (Transient and Group) be in the 6% to 7% range, and one
might be a little higher or lower depending on the quarter, because as we all know group sort of cycles
differently in the quarters depending on the big groups and the big hotels. But we feel like it’s going to – they’re
both going to be in that range, which is why I sort of say, I’ve never felt – I’ve never seen it feel better when
you’ve got sort of all the cylinders hitting at the same time.
It’s hard not to feel exceptionally good about what’s going on in the sense that transient business is good and
continues to stay good, if not get a little bit better. Group is rebounding exactly the way that we would think
with the ancillary spend coming along with it, the patterns looking forward, feel very good and supply is still
at historically low levels and everything that you see going into the next two or three years suggest it’s going to
be significantly below 30-year averages. So I’m going to just say we feel really good about, where we are in the
cycle.
66
Group Trends – Hyatt
Hyatt: Up 10% in 1Q up from 1% in 4Q; Still pacing up HSD for 2015
On the group side, group rooms’ revenue at comparable U.S. full service hotels was up a strong 10% in the quarter with average
daily rates up approximately 6%. This is the 18th quarter in a row that we’ve seen rate growth for our group business. And this
quarter’s rate growth is the strongest, since the second quarter of 2007. Group revenue from corporate and association
customers was healthy in the quarter. The revenue from associations benefited from strong growth in room nights, while revenue
from corporate customers benefited from strong rate growth.
Group revenue that was booked in the quarter, for the quarter increased over 15% versus last year. We saw a strong association
demand in New Orleans, San Francisco and Chicago and strong corporate demand in San Diego, Phoenix and Maui.
Our group revenue pace remains strong for 2015 up over 7%, and approximately 85% of our group business is on the books for
2015, which is in line with our expectations. Looking ahead in 2015, group pace is relatively stronger in the second quarter and
fourth quarter with the third quarter being impacted by the timing of holidays. We expect this momentum in group business to
continue through 2015 and beyond, and we are encouraged by the results we saw in the quarter.
67
9%10%
6%7%
8%7%
9%8%
6%
8%7% 7%
6%
9%
6%
1%
3%
-6%
5%
7% 6%
9%
2%
9%
1%
10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Hyatt Group vs. Transient Revenue Growth
Transient Rev Growth Group Rev GrowthSource: Company Filings
Group Trends – Marriott
Marriott: Up 6% in 1Q inline with 6% in 4Q, 2015 still pacing up 4%
Group RevPAR at our full-service hotels in North America rose more than 5%, including 4% from higher room
rates. Demand from smaller groups was particularly strong.
Our full-service hotel group booking pace for the remainder of 2015 is up roughly 4%. You probably recall that the
third quarter of 2014 benefited from shifting holidays and very strong group business. In 2015, group business in
the third quarter will face these tough comparisons.
Well, I think they are getting aggressive on group price growth. We didn’t hang this out there in our prepared
remarks, but if you look at the bookings we did in the first quarter of 2015, for the next 12 months, pricing – room
rates were up 6% and room nights were up 3%, so, 9.5% of revenue growth for the bookings in the quarter for
the next 12 months.
And when you look at the next 12 months – so essentially two years out, 13 to 24 months out – you’ve got about the
same, 5.5% rate growth and 3.5% room night growth. And so, in fact, we are seeing that dynamic very much in
play,
68
Group Trends – Starwood
Starwood: Up 6% in 1Q up from the LSD in 4Q; 2015 packing up MSD (up from LSD last
call)
Group demand in North America has been good with group revenue in the quarter up over 6% at our owned
and managed hotels. Corporate group was very strong, up nearly 10% versus last year. That was helped by
revenue production in the quarter, for the quarter, up double-digits.
Looking ahead, group revenue production into all years was also up double-digits. That increase in
production on top of the previously strong group bookings has moved our group revenue on the books for 2015
up mid-single-digits versus last year. That’s an increase from the lower-single-digit pace we had in the fourth
quarter of 2014. Transient performance in the quarter was up 4%, driven mostly by increases in rate.
69
Host
RevPAR up 3.8% in 1Q similar to the 3.2% in 4Q; maintaining 2015 outlook at up 4.5-5.5%
Growth in the quarter hindered by renovations – was up 5.5% at hotels not under construction
Group was up 4% (ahead of the flat in 4Q14, was up 10.5% in 3Q14, 2% in 2Q14, and 11% in 1Q14); 2015
now pacing up 3.5% yr/yr (said 2015 was pacing up modestly on prior call) and 2Q is pacing up more than 7%
Group bookings made in 1Q were up 10.5% yr/yr
Management expects RevPAR growth to improve throughout 2015 and thinks 4Q of this year is setting up as
particularly strong
Did not see big impact of intl arrivals slowing at hotels in 1Q; 2Q summer travel could be impacted; saw travel
to European hotels up 6-8% in 1Q which is supporting European RevPAR growth
Positives: SF, Boston, Phoenix, San Diego, Florida, LA, Atlanta
Negatives:
New York – Super Bowl, new supply, winter storms, light citywide; did NOT see any impact from stonger US dollar impacting
arrvals but summer travel could be impacted, think 1Q is weakest of the year/should perform better/expect positive RevPAR
(vs. 1Q NY down yr/yr)
D.C. – renovations/new supply hindered, expect to improve in 2Q and over next few years as Group pace looks solid
Houston – energy layoff should continue to negatively impact through 2015
70
Host - Group Trends
Group up 4% in 1Q (ahead of the flat in 4Q); 2015 pacing up 3.5% (noted modestly on prior call); called
out 2Q pacing up more than 7%
On the group side, demand increased by 1%, driven by an 8.5% increase in our association segment.
Corporate business was flat to last year, which means we booked over 15,000 rooms to offset the loss of the
Super Bowl group we had in 2014 in the New York City. Group rate was up 3% leading to group revenue
increase of 4%, perhaps providing better insight into the strength of our group business, demand in revenues
increased more than 2% and 5.5% respectively over last year, when we look at the hotels unaffected by
renovation in either 2014 or 2015.
Overall, we expect group demand to remain solid through the remainder of the year. Continuing our experience
in Q4 of last year, bookings in the first quarter for the year increased by more than 10.5%, and the average
rate was 8% higher than last year. Due to the strong bookings in the first quarter, demand in the second
quarter is now up more than 3%, with rate up more than 3.5% resulting in revenue growth of more than 7%.
Overall for the year, our group rate is up more than 2.5% with group revenue up nearly 3.5%, which represents
a significant increase from where we started the year. Construction activity will continue to affect operating
results with meaningfully higher year-over-year spending in Q2, although the impact in Q2 should not be as
severe as what we experienced in Q1.
71
LaSalle - Group Trends
RevPAR up 5.4% (guide 4.5-5.5%) down from 7.7% in 4Q; maintaining 2015 up 4.5-6.5%
Group up 6-7% vs. the up 8% in 4Q; 2015 pacing up 5.4% (noted LSD on last call)
No meaningful impact for stronger USD/international stays
Transient Rev on books for balance of yr up 3.7% and Group 4% (both about 100bps occ, 300bps rates)
Key Quotes
Group rooms occupied decreased by 1%, but the group rate improved by 7.9%, which reflects our operator
strategically being more selective with groups over compressed dates and targeting higher average rates. Our
group transient mix was 20.5% group and 71.5% transient during the first quarter.
International visitation has been a hot topic since the beginning of the year. As a reminder, the percentage of
international business in our portfolio generally ranges from mid to high single-digits. During the first quarter
there was not a material difference in international demand in our portfolio compared to the first quarter of
2014. In fact, during the quarter, international rooms sold in New York City actually increased over 500 rooms
versus the first quarter of 2014.
Well, more of these soft brands that are out there that create competition that provide good pricing structures
for the ownership, the better off owners are with more options. For us, we have a number of brands that we
use. We’re not anti-brand by any means. We’re just capitalists and so to the extent that there are soft brands that
are priced at a level that becomes compelling for us to pay the soft brand and delivers enough to offset the cost
of that then that’s what we have to look into.
72
Group Trends – DiamondRock
DiamondRock RevPAR up 7.9% (guided 6-7%) in 1Q in line with the 8.3% in 4Q;
maintaining 2015 outlook at up 6-7%; seeing good momentum going into 2Q
Group up 6.6% in 1Q (was up 4.7% in 4Q); 2015 Group rev still pacing up mid singles (mentioned 4% on last
call with roomnights down and rates up); 2Q flat, 3Q negative and 4Q positive on Group Revs
Key Quotes
Our group business also performed well during the quarter. Group revenues grew 6.6%, driven by a 3.3%
increase in rate and a 3.2% increase in group room nights. Recent positive trends in short-term group booking
activity continued this quarter, with our portfolio benefiting from an approximately 60% growth in in-the-
quarter for-the-quarter bookings compared to the prior year.
Additionally, the group segment contributed to a 7.9% increase in quarterly banquet and catering revenues,
which contributed to the 119 basis points of food and beverage margin expansion.
73
Group Trends – Ryman
Ryman: up 4% (guidance for flat) vs. the 10.3% in 4Q; maintaining 2015 outlook up 4-6%
75% of business from Group – 2016 Group revenue pacing up high singles (mentioned up 5% on prior call;
Key Quotes
For the rest of this year, our goals for our sales team will be to book about the same amount of room nights as
the excellent year we had last year, but with improving rates. So 2016 is shaping up to be a very good year and
the leads our teams are working for 2016 and beyond reflects more leads than prior year with improving rate.
So as you’re looking at 2016, for instance, I would tell you that we see our corporate room nights increasing
about 100,000 based on what’s on the books right now. And so, that encourages us that the outside-the-room
spend will continue to grow and we’ll see some expansion there because of the type of mix that we’re bringing
in-house.
And as we look towards 2016, our group room revenue on the books is pacing high single-digit increase over
the same time last year for 2015. And some of you will remember that as of December 31, which we reported to
you in late February, this number was up 5%.
Our funnel was strong at the end of the fourth quarter. It’s strong at the end of the first quarter. It’s just
timing of the way these things get booked. We’re expecting to book approximately there or thereabout the same
amount of room nights this year that we booked last year which was a tremendous year for our company.
The thing that’s encouraging is the rate side of it that we started to see improving third quarter last year, is
continuing to move in the direction we all want and that’s really good. Getting a 6% growth in the rate, group
rate that we booked in the first quarter is very, very healthy.
As we’re heading into Q2, it is a tough comp, because we had the best second quarter in the history of the
company this time last year, but again, we’re very bullish on the year and feel like we can come in with a very
solid year of production.
74
Group Trends – Strategic
Strategic: RPAR up 6.9% in 4Q (was up 7% in 3Q) puts full yr 2014 up 7.4%; guiding 2015 up 4-6%
1Q Group roomnights up 6% (was up 15% last Q) with rates up 8.5%; 2015 rooms up 3% and rates up 3% (in
line with comments on last call)
Key Quotes
Average daily rates for the quarter increased over 7% primarily driven by a very strong 8.5% increase in group
rates.
On top of the more than 7% overall rate growth, total occupied room nights for the quarter increased 5%
compared to the first quarter of last year which included 6% increase in occupied group room nights and a 3%
increase in transient room nights.
Group room nights for 2015 are down slightly compared to the same time last year, largely because the St.
Francis, our largest group hotel is down approximately 12% for the year, and concentrated entirely in the last
two quarters of the year. Excluding The Westin St. Francis and the to be sold Hyatt Regency La Jolla, group
room nights on the books are up about 1% in 2015 and the rate is about 4% higher on those rooms. Our early
read on 2016 is also very encouraging, as room nights currently on the books are up nearly 13% compared to
where we were in future bookings at the same time last year. And, although, it’s still a little early to get too
excited about the percentages when talking about 2016, we are clearly headed in the right direction.
75
Group Trends –Pebblebrook
Pebblebrook : 1Q came in up 3.6% (6.6% when adjusted for renovations), which was at the high end of
their 1-3% growth guidance. Guiding 2Q up 4-6% (also hindered by renovations) and maintaining full yr
2015 growth outlook of 6.5-7.5%.
Guide implies a step up in the 2H (high singles in 3Q/4Q), once renovation activity rolls off (9.2% growth in 2014).
Key Quotes
We don’t see a reason at this point why ADR growth isn’t going to continue to accelerate to the upside. We think – as an
industry, we think that industry occupancies are going to continue to go up. There’s more compression nights. There’s
more ADR pricing power. There’s more remixing of business. There is less discounting. And that will continue to drive
ADR growth higher. And it certainly wouldn’t surprise us that even if this year is a modest decline in RevPAR growth
from last year, we did think ADR growth is going to be higher this year than last year. And we won’t be surprised to see
RevPAR growth accelerate up again in the following year, particularly as convention calendars look to be a little better
next year than they do this year.
But when you look at some of the other data they’ve put out, it looks like in the first two months of the year that that
travel inbound non-resident overseas, meaning leaving Canada and Mexico out, it is running around 4% to 5%. And
that seems consistent with what we’ve been seeing in New York and other gateway markets in the U.S. And it’s
consistent with our overall forecast for moderation in the industry demand levels from 4.5% down to 2.5% to 3% for
our range and our forecast for overall industry RevPAR to moderate from last year’s level. So, what’s happening is what
we thought would happen. It doesn’t seem to be any different.
Group revenues increased 10.8% with ADR up 7.9%, which is encouraging and is a continuation of the positive trends
we saw in 2014, but we do not expect this growth rate to sustain itself for the balance of 2015.
If we look at our pace without these three properties, total revenue on the books, group and transient, is up 4.1% for
the remaining three quarters of the year. As a result, we’re not concerned about our overall pace numbers for the
remainder of the year.
76
Group Trends – Sunstone
Sunstone: RevPAR up 7% (guide 5-6.5%) vs. the 6% in 4Q; maintaining 2015 up 5-7%
2015 Group pacing up 4% (in line with the 5% on prior call)
Key Quotes
For full-year 2015, our current group pace for all 30 hotels has decreased to 4% positive. Our pace growth is
now coming 100% from rate, representing a clear opportunity for the remainder of the year…a few hotels
have applied a strategy shift, taking less group and waiting for transient business to take advantage of higher
transient rates.
While room revenue growth was strong, food and beverage and other income were really the stars of the
quarter. During the first quarter, food and beverage revenues increased 6.7%, driven by 10.6% increase in
banquet revenues and a 14.1% increase in audio-visual sales per occupied group room. Food and beverage
revenues continued to strengthen, as groups add more events to their programs, as well as up-scaling of
functions in quality and size.
Occupancy continues to increase as evidenced by our first quarter occupancy exceeding the first quarter prior
peak occupancy by 460 basis points. As a result, several of our larger hotels are now limiting group room
nights and shifting group patterns to lower occupancy weekend nights due to the strength of midweek
transient demand.
Our full year 2015 occupancy is expected to increase 50 basis points to 100 basis points. With a fairly benign
supply forecast for most of our markets, we believe it is more likely than not that occupancy will continue to
grow in 2016. Should this be the case, there is a strong argument to be made that pricing pressure will continue
to intensify through at least next year. These trends bode well for the remainder of 2015 and beyond.
For the first quarter, our 30-hotel comparable portfolio group room night production for all current and future
years declined slightly from the peak year last year by 6.3%. However, Q1 bookings remain the second highest
first quarter in the last eight years. We continue to see strong group trends throughout our portfolio into 2016.
77
OTA’s
78
The OTA’s – Some things are changing
79
12%
54%
44%
15% 16% 15%
5%
33%
27%
12%
14%13%
7%
30%
25%
12%
29%
19%
4%
40%
33%
10%
34%
19%
9%
43%
36%
7%
30%
16%
12%
44%
38%
7%
23%
13%
17%
42%
37%
13%
18%
15%
27%
41%
39%
19%
24%
21%19%
37%
34%35%
21%
29%
21%
36%
34%35%
21%
29%
10%
32%
28%
35%
22%
29%
3%
19%
17%
29%
18%
24%
2%
14%12%
20%17%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Priceline Domestic Priceline International Priceline Gross Expedia Domestic Expedia International Expedia Gross
OTA Bookings Growth
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15Source: Company Filings, Factset, Street
Big Picture: Total Travel Mkt is big and Growing, Online is taking Share
Online bookings account for 50% of US ($300B), 40% in Europe ($300B), 25% in APAC ($300B) and
18% in LATAM ($70B)
Online will grow….a lot. PCLN/EXPE grow with that at 20-30% annually
Priceline: 90% hotel, 75% international
Expedia: 75% hotels, and 40% international
OTA’s TTM Performance
80
Bookings Growth
81
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Priceline Bookings Growth
Gross Bookings Growth Domestic Growth Intl Growth
Source: Company Filings
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Expedia Bookings Growth
Gross Bookings Growth Domestic Growth Intl GrowthSource: Company Filings
Expedia: Global bookings remained strong at up 30% (Domestic 35% and Intl 25%); domestic
outperformance supported by Travelocity
Priceline: Global bookings continue to moderate on FX headwinds and slowing domestic growth;
bookings were up 12% yr/yr (guided 2-9%) in USD and up 26% yr/yr (guided 14-21%) adjusted
for FX, consisting of domestic up 2% (guided 0-5%) and international up 14% in USD (guide 3-
10%) and up 29% yr/yr adjusted for FX (guided 17-24%). 2Q guided at more of the same
Gross Bookings: Domestic vs. International
82
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Th
ou
san
ds
Priceline Gross Bookings
Priceline Domestic Bookings Priceline Intl BookingsSource: Company Filings
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Expedia Gross Bookings
Expedia Domestic Bookings Expedia Intl BookingsSource: Company Filings
Priceline: Large intl business – more concern on FX risk
Expedia: 3x business domestically as Priceline but posting higher growth rates
Room Nights – Up 30% Yr/Yr
83
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Priceline Room Nights
Priceline Room Nights Priceline Room Night GrowthSource: Company Filings
M RoomsYr/Yr
Growth
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Expedia Room Nights
Expedia Room Nights Expedia Room Night GrowthSource: Company Filings
M RoomsYr/Yr
Growth
Priceline: Room nights up 27% in 3Q in line with the 29% yr/yr in 2Q
Expedia: Room nights were up 32% yr/yr in 1Q (consisting of Domestic up 23%, Intl up 41%) ahead of
the 28% yr/yr in 4Q (consisting of Domestic up 25%, Intl up 30%)
Priceline Key Comments
Domestic business remains soft – Opaque shrinking
Priceline.com’s domestic growth continued to be hampered by the shrinking opaque business. Priceline.com’s
retail business remains healthy, including acceleration in retail hotels, and a new management team there is
poised to rejuvenate and maximize the potential of The Priceline.com brand.
(Q) Hey. You mentioned Priceline brand domestically is facing some headwinds right now especially in the
opaque business which makes sense, but you have you some new management of that brand to try to revitalize
growth. But can you talk more specifically about how the Booking.com brand is doing in the U.S., and how the
initiative to grow that brand domestically is maybe comparing to your expectations at this point?
(A) So, we don’t release specific numbers but generally speaking, if you dig around and you ask the average of
U.S. hotel, they would generally say we’re the fastest growing of the players. We’re growing off of a smaller
base. We’re trying all sorts of things in the U.S. For us, it’s a big growth market because we’re just – we’re
starting, we under index in the U.S. And it seems like it takes time but the market is also sticking with the
American customer base. So, we’re excited. It’s a super high priority on my list.
PCLN doesn’t think Delta will happen in hotels
And U.S. Air in particular, U.S. Airways is a totally different market. It’s probably one of the least friendly to
OTAs. There’s like no money in it. And even if you’re not making money, they don’t want to give you the data. I
actually don’t think that’s good for the consumer because the great thing about OTAs, they brought
accountability to product. If you look at what Uber’s done to cars, or what we’ve done to hotels, the product
keeps getting better and better and better because it’s fully accountable to the consumers that use it. Even if the
consumer will never use the product again, they have a chance to express their opinion. And then the people
who provide the service then react to that opinion. So you know we’re not affected by the latest move from Delta
because we have long-term arrangements. But it would be good to see more openness in the sharing of data on
the airline side.
84
Expedia Key Comments
2.5 yrs into a new journey
And we have been on a journey over the course the last, call it, two-and-a-half years, starting with the
introduction of the Expedia Traveler Preference program, which was, again, us introducing agency hotel really
alongside merchant hotel to give consumers the choice. Where we’ve been? I would say just restructuring the
way that we do business with our hotels from a spot where we used to be high price for everyone because we
are mighty Expedia, and if you want to do business with us, you got to pay to the new model, which is, hey,
we just charge the market standard rate. We’re not a price leader. We’re not undercutting. We’re just the
market standard rate. And come on, on and try it in a really frictionless way. And if you like what you see,
we’ll give you lots of opportunities to spend more with us to get more, similar to the Google way, spend more to
get more. We are, again, we’re two-and-a-half years into that. I would say that in most major markets around
the world that model has been implemented. There’s still some work to do through the back part of this year.
And then I think we’re probably 18 months to 24 months before we’re looking at, call it, clean comps on that
activity.
85
Trip Advisor
Click rates on instant book similar; not disclosing conversion
So, the click-through rate what we’ve always been pleased to report and can reiterate is that when we put a
button up there on either the phone or desktop, tablet devices, that says book on TripAdvisor, consumers are
fine with that. They click at roughly the same rate as if we are putting any other brand. So, our interpretation
of that is perfectly happy to leverage the trust that they have in TripAdvisor to start down that booking
funnel. We don’t disclose the actual conversion rate or we’re not ready to disclose the actual conversion rate of
those leads but you can imagine as it’s been rolled out on the phone in so many places and being out there that
it’s working well for us and the rollout continues as you’ve seen in my remarks into other countries on the
phone. On desktop, we haven’t rolled it out fully but we continue to work through both the downstream
conversion. We continue to work optimizing the funnel. And just to make sure that the user’s experience is as
good as it can be, as good as it should be whether the filament partner is a supplier direct hotel, hotel chain, or
through an OTA.
Still figuring things out with the brands – not so much education as it is negotiation
So, the education curve for the big chains, I think kind of the under – most of them understand what we’ve –
what we’re doing here. I’d say there’s general buy-in and an understanding as to why we’re doing it and how
we can help them. There is an ongoing negotiation in terms of how and under what terms do they want to
participate. So stay tuned is the message. I don’t think more education is necessarily the answer as opposed to
closing more on the negotiation side.
86
Wrapping it up
1. Stable growth vs. acceleration/deceleration
2. 2Q and 2H sound on track
3. Watch the Group set-up for 2H
4. Please raise your prices
5. Please raise your prices
87
Appendix
Disclosures
Buy: The stock’s return is expected to exceed the market due to superior fundamentals and positive catalysts.
Underperform: The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the market due to weak fundamentals and a
lack of catalysts.
Neutral: The stock is expected to be in line with the market due to full valuation and/or a lack of catalysts.
Valuation and Risk: Price targets are established under various valuation methods including P/E, P/S, EV/EBITDA
on financial estimates based on forward earnings. Price targets are not established for every stock. The price
target’s effectiveness may be affected by various outside factors. Risk assessments can be found in the most recent
research on these stocks.
Other Disclosures: I, Vince Ciepiel, certify that the views expressed in the research report(s) accurately reflect our
personal views about the subject security(s). Further, we certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in the research report(s). The
analysts responsible for the preparation of this report have no ownership stake in this company. Cleveland Research
Company provides no investment banking services of any type on this or any company. Proprietary research and
Information contained herein which forms the basis for findings or opinions expressed by Cleveland Research
Company may be used by Cleveland Research for other purposes in the course of compensated consulting and other
services rendered to third parties.
The information transmitted is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. Any review,
retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons
or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this in error, please contact the sender and
delete the material from any compute. Member FINRA/SIPC.
88
Questions
89
North America: Avg 7%, 200bps Step Up
90
2.8%
5.6%
7.7% 7.3%
8.6%
6.3%
8.8%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
H Americas Full Serv. RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.4% 6.0%
4.5% 4.0%
7.0%
8.4%
9.7%
7.3%
10.1%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
H Americas Limited Serv. RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
4.7%
6.7% 7.4%
8.7%
6.8% 6.6%
5.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Americas RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
4.8% 5.2% 5.2%
4.7%
6.3% 6.0%
8.7%
6.7% 6.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR N. America RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.2%
5.2% 5.8% 6.1%
7.1%
6.3%
9.1%
5.8%
6.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT N. America RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
5.0% 5.0%
3.6% 3.0%
6.4% 6.7%
8.7%
7.5%
6.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG US RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Asia Pac: Yr/Yr growth moderating
91
3.3%
2.5%
3.8% 3.8%
6.4%
5.6%
4.9%
2.9%
6.2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
8.6% 8.7%
4.8%
3.4% 2.9%
10.1%
7.0%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
5.4% 0.9%
1.6% 3.5%
11.9%
11.1%
8.7%
4.1%
0.4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT Greater China RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
(0.4%) (0.7%)
2.1%
4.2%
7.3%
5.1%
4.1%
3.1%
5.8%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
H Asia Pac RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
2.2%
(1.5%)
0.7%
2.4%
3.9% 4.6%
0.8%
(2.0%)
2.4%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG China RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Europe Mixed – Pretty decent quarter
92
(1.8%)
1.2%
2.2%
3.3% 3.6%
1.6%
3.2% 2.7%
7.0%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
4.6%
6.5%
4.4%
6.6% 6.9%
5.5%
3.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
(1.3%)
2.5% 1.9%
3.9%
2.5%
1.9%
6.1%
4.0%
5.1%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.2% 6.1%
2.4%
5.0% 5.3%
3.9%
7.8%
2.6%
1.4%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
H EAME/SWA RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
(2.1%)
1.9% 1.4%
4.9%
6.1%
4.1%
6.1%
4.2%
5.8%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG Europe RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Africa/Mid E.– Easy Egypt Comps
93
(3.2%)(0.6%)
(3.4%)
15.5%
6.7% 5.4% 6.4%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2013
HLT Mid E./Afr RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
11.2%
5.7%
(11.3%)(10.7%)
0.4% 4.9%
15.0% 14.9%
9.3%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
MAR Mid E./Afr RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
7.3% 7.5%
0.6%
2.0% 2.1%
(0.9%)
4.7%
(0.3%)0.8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
HOT Africa/Mid. E RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
5.6%
6.8%
5.5%
6.4%
3.8% 3.6%
4.4%
3.1%
6.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
IHG AMEA RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
6.2% 6.1%
2.4%
5.0% 5.3%
3.9%
7.8%
2.6%
1.4%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
H EAME/SWA RevPAR Growth
Rate Occupancy RevPARSource:
Company Filings
Brand Co’s Pipeline
94
40%
60%
HLT
Domestic International
52%
48%
MAR
Domestic International
13%
87%
HOT
Domestic International
23%
77%
H
Domestic International
40%
60%
WYN
Domestic International
79%
21%
CHH
Domestic International
29%
71%
IHG
Domestic International
MAR RevPAR by Geography
95
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr 3Q14 4Q14 Comments as of 4Q14 Call 1Q15 Comments as of 1Q15 Call
Worldwide 4.6% 4.7% 4.8% 4.3% 6.2% 5.8% 8.1% 6.2% 6.8% 5-7% 5-7% Growth led by N. America 5-7%
North
America4.8% 5.2% 5.2% 4.7% 6.3% 6.0% 8.7% 6.7% 6.9% 5-7% 5-7%
Good Group pace; Transient Leisure and Corporate
strong5-7%
Continue to see solid growth in both Transient and
Group; Limited service leading growth
Total
International4.1% 2.8% 3.4% 3.2% 5.7% 4.8% 5.6% 4.6% 6.7% 4-6% 4-6%
Afr/Mid East lead growth; Conservative in Europe; 1Q
expected to grow 3-5%4-6%
Taking up Europe outlook; maintaining view on other
geographies
Carib &
L. America6.1% 4.4% 7.5% 7.1% 9.9% 10.6% 10.9% 7.7% 5.7% 4-6% 4-6%
Stronger Leisure and Group demand in Carib and
Mexico; Brazil weak and tough compare on World Cup4-6%
Mexico and Carib resorts strong; tough World Cup
compare
Europe (1.8%) 1.2% 2.2% 3.3% 3.6% 1.6% 3.2% 2.7% 7.0% 1-3% 1-3%Strong holiday in Germany/Austria; weak in Russia,
Expect London benefit from Group business4-6%
One of the biggest surprises in the quarter; Germany,
London, Amsterdam strong; expect MSD growth
Africa &
Mid. East11.2% 5.7% (11.3%) (10.7%) 0.4% 4.9% 15.0% 14.9% 9.3% 5-9% 7-9% Strong in Egypt, Africa Protea 7-9%
Improving political environment in Egypt; timing of
Ramadan should drive modest growth in 2Q/outsized
growth in 3Q
Asia Pac 3.3% 2.5% 3.8% 3.8% 6.4% 5.6% 4.9% 2.9% 6.2% 4-6% 4-6%
US tourism to Japan is strong; Strong Shaghai
offsetting weak Hong Kong in 4Q; HK improve in
2015
4-6%Japan, India, Shanghi and Thailand showing good
growth; Hong Kong still soft
Source: Company Filings
Marriott RevPAR Growth Geographical Review
2015 Guidance As of:
Hilton RevPAR by Geography
96
4Q13 4Q14
Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Comments from 4Q14 Call Yr/Yr Comments from 1Q15 Call
Worldwide 4.7% 6.6% 6.7% 8.4% 6.6% 6.6% 5-7% Feel great about fundamentals; U.S. should lead growth 5-7% Overall fundamentals of the cycle remain strong
Americas 4.7% 6.7% 7.4% 8.7% 6.8% 6.6%
Supply growth muted and good job/economic growth in
U.S. drives growth; Strength in Mex offsets weaker
Brazil
MSD
In U.S. expect mid to high single digit growth; expect
Americas outside U.S. up MSD on positive momentum in Mex
offsetting softer Arg & Brazil
Asia Pac 8.6% 8.7% 4.8% 3.4% 2.9% 10.1%
Japan remain strong (tempered by consumption tax) and
China steady; India and Indonesia improvement
continue; Thailand drag
MSD
Maintain MSD outlook. Robust demand in Japan, recovery in
Thailand and good momentumin Shanghai & Beijing. HK and
Singapore remain weak.
Europe 4.6% 6.5% 4.4% 6.6% 6.9% 5.5%Positive mometum in W and S Europe continue; France
remain soft, Russia/Uk/Eastern Europe uncertainMSD
Maintain MSD outlook. Positive Germany and S. Eur. France
and E. Eur remain soft.
Africa &
Mid. East(3.2%) (0.6%) (3.4%) 15.5% 6.7% 5.4%
Recovering nicely, strength in Egypt continue/beginning
of a recovery; Saudi also strong; other areas mixedMSD
Improvements in Egpyt look sustatinable. Russia an overhang
on Arabian Peninsula.
Source: Company Filings
Hilton RevPAR Growth Geographical Review
2015 Guide As of:1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 1Q15
Starwood RevPAR by Geography
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Comments from 4Q14 Call Yr/Yr Comments from 1Q15 Call
Worldwide 4.9% 6.3% 5.3% 7.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5-7%Seeing positive signs out there. All are stronger than we thought going
into the 4th quarter. Modest improvement in trendlines.5-7%
North
America6% 7.1% 6.3% 9.1% 5.8% 6.8% Upping our 2015 RevPAR expetations relative to Oct call.
Expect to continue to remain strong with expansion of rate and
occupancy
Latin
America1% 2.9% 4.8% 6.1% 2.8% 4.7% Brazil could restart economic growth. Argentia still struggle.
Strenght in Mexic offsets weaker Brazil/Argentia; expect similar trends
as what was seen in 1Q
Greater
China2% 11.9% 11.1% 8.7% 4.1% 0.4% N. China weak, but Shanghai strong.
Hong Kong and Macau hurting results; RevPAR in mainland China
should improve modestly in 2Q
Rest of
Asia7% 5.6% 2.9% 0.3% 1.2% 5.7%
Geopolicital drags - likely mixed in 2015. Thailand maybe a little better.
Seeing a little better ROA.Australia, Japan, India, and Thailand strong; should continue
Europe 2% 2.5% 1.9% 6.1% 4.0% 5.1%Still unclear, most forecasts call for modest growth. Not factoring in a
robust recovery in Europe. Seeing a little better Europe.
Seeing encouraging trends/weaker Euro spurring travel; expect slightly
softer growth against tougher comps throughout the year
Africa &
Mid. East5% 2.1% (0.9%) 4.7% (0.3%) 0.8% Geopolicital drags - likely mixed in 2015. Seeing a little better.
Softer growth reflects continued challenges in Africa; should remain
soft in 2Q
Source: Company Filings
Starwood Recent RevPAR Growth (Constant $) Geographical Review
2013 2015 Guide
97
Hyatt RevPAR by Geography
98
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Rooms Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr Yr/Yr
Owned & Leased 20,542 4.4% 7.1% 5.8% 5.9% 6.3% 4.0% 7.3% 3.4% 6.5%
U.S. 19,883
Intl 3,969
Select Service U.S. 659 6.8% 7.6% 4.4% 3.9% 1.1% 5.2% 9.5%
Managed & Franchised 151,105 3.2% 4.6% 5.6% 5.9% 7.7% 6.1% 8.0% 5.1% 7.4%
Full 71,693 2.8% 5.6% 7.7% 7.3% 8.6% 6.3% 8.8% 5.8% 8.3%
Select 36,568 6.4% 6.0% 4.5% 4.0% 7.0% 8.4% 9.7% 7.3% 10.1%
Asia Pac 24,942 (0.4%) (0.7%) 2.1% 4.2% 7.3% 5.1% 4.1% 3.1% 5.8%
Eur/Afr/Mid E.
SW Asia17,758 6.2% 6.1% 2.4% 5.0% 5.3% 3.9% 7.8% 2.6% 1.4%
Source: Company Filings
2Q14
3.9%6.3%Full Service 3.9% 7.1% 7.0%
Dec-14
Hyatt RevPAR Growth Geographical Review
4Q13 1Q14
Americas
6.9% 6.1%
Lux/Upscale Focused
Brand Co’s by Geography
99
Hilton: Fastest Growing, Largest N. Am
Marriott: Big N. Am, Good Growth Dom&Intl
Starwood: Upper Tier, Good Growth Dom&Intl
Hyatt: Smaller, N.Am focused, Good Dom Growth
Midscale/Econ Focused
Intercontinental: Mid Tier, Lower Dom, Higher Intl
Wyndham: Low Tier, Dom Flat, Highest Intl Growth
Choice: Low Tier, Lower Growth Dom&Intl
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
HLT MAR HOT H IHG WYN CHH
Tho
usa
nd
s
Room Mix by Chain Scale
Extended Stay Timeshare/Other Economy Midscale Upscale Upper Upscale Luxury
Source: Company Filings
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
HLT MAR HOT H IHG WYN CHH
Tho
usa
nd
s
Room Mix by Geography
N. America L. America Asia Pac Eur/Mid E./Afr
Source: Company Filings
Growth Domestic vs. International
3.8%4.5%
5.1%
2.1%
4.9%
14.5%
1.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
HLT MAR HOT H IHG WYN CHH
International Room Growth CAGR: 2007 to 2013
Source: Company Filings
100
5.5%
3.4%3.0%
5.4%
1.7%
0.2%
2.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
HLT MAR HOT H IHG WYN CHH
N.Am Room Growth CAGR: 2007 to 2013
Source: Company Filings
5.6%
3.6%4.0%
3.6%
2.7%
3.3%
1.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
HLT MAR HOT H IHG WYN CHH
Room Growth CAGR: 2007 to 2013
Source: Company Filings
Brand Co’s Room Additions by Geography
101
0
50
100
150
200
HLT MAR HOT H IHG WYN CHH
Tho
usa
nd
s
Brand Co's Room Additions since 2007: Domestic. vs. International
Domestic InternationalSource: Company Filings
Hampton Inn
Garden Inn
Doubletree
Hilton in
Asia/MEA
Marriott
Courtyard
Courtyard
Fairfield
SpringhillResidence Aloft, W,
Westin,
Four Points
Sheraton, Westin
Four Points
Luxury Collection
Crowne Plaza
Inn Express
Candlewood
Staybridge
Inn Express
Super 8
Ramada
Days Inn
Hyatt
Place
Suites
Grand
Regency Quality Inn
Ascend
RodewayComfort
Hilton and Marriott – Upscale/Upper Midscale
Domestic Room Additions International Room Additions
Wyndham/IHG – Midscale/Economy
Starwood – Lux/Upper Upscale