after the break: blockbuster show

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After the break: Blockbuster show

The multiplex industry bore significant and direct brunt of the pandemic. Fear of the virus compelled state regulations as well as consumers to turn unfavourable for the industry. Although the second covid wave has derailed recovery, we expect strong recovery to commence soon with starting of unlock, pick up in vaccination drives

and opening up of international markets.

In this report: a) we look at global markets to evaluate how fast footfalls resumed post unlock; and b) how regional films fared during Unlock 1 in India, to get a better sense of how the industry recovery will look like in FY22-23.

Eastern markets: Good response despite stringent caps

The Japanese and South Korean markets can be a good comparison to India’s

industry as they have a strong local language film industry co-existing with demand

for Hollywood movies. Both these markets saw many films that pulled in heavy

crowds at theatres despite operating under occupancy caps and strict rules. These

movies did not entail much discounting in ticket prices, which is a strong positive

sign. Apart from local language films, Hollywood blockbusters like F9 have also

garnered strong support. The quick bounce-back of these markets is another strong

positive sign.

Western markets: Strong bounce-back

Western markets are important to look at because most big budget Bollywood films

earn a significant part of revenue from them. US and European markets have

clocked strong recovery after theatres reopened this summer. In Europe, while in

France a bunch of local language films drove up collections post reopening,

Hollywood blockbusters evinced strong response in UK. Multiplexes in these

markets have gradually started relaxing restrictions based on regulatory guidelines

with a few multiplexes permitting vaccinated patrons to not wear masks.

Outlook: India to see huge pent-up demand

India’s multiplex industry has faced strong odds in the past one year with state

restrictions and movie release delays by producers. The next important movie

release window is during the Independence day week in August and Q3FY22.

Already a few states have announced opening up of cinema halls, much quicker

than last time. We expect the industry to see strong pent-up demand given

customers are bored of confined living. Huge content line up also bodes well.

Upcoming movie of Akshay Kumar “Bell Bottom” on 27 July is expected to bring in

huge crowds. Opening up of a number of international markets is also a positive

since Bollywood movies derive significant revenue from overseas markets. Most

consumers and producers still prefer theatre releases and OTT will not cause any

structural change in the industry, in our view. We expect both to co-exist.

India Equity Research Media June 18, 2021

Mediascope SECTOR UPDATE

Abneesh Roy +91 (22) 6620 3141 [email protected]

https://www.asiamoney.com/brokers

Mediascope

Edelweiss Securities Limited

2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Scenario in Eastern global markets

Theatres in Japan

Strong recovery signs in CY20; cinemas close in April 2021: Japan’s cinema

industry showed quick recovery last year when theatres had opened briefly.

There was strong pent-up demand which helped in immediate bounce back. In

fact, the runaway success ‘’Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba The Movie:

Mugen Train’’ became the biggest film ever in the market. Cinemas this year,

however, were shut in Tokyo and Osaka beginning April 25 with a state of

emergency extended on May 11.

Cinemas reopen, albeit with restrictions: Movie theatres in Tokyo are now

making preparations to welcome guests once again as the metropolitan

government eases coronavirus restrictions. Officials said the state of emergency

in Tokyo will be extended for three weeks starting June 1, but some restrictions

will be eased.

As per Japan times, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government will allow cinemas to

operate at 50% capacity and until 9 P.M. Osaka Prefecture will likewise be

permitted to open, though only on weekdays until 9 P.M. and also with a

capacity cap. Major Japanese multiplex chain Toho Cinemas said it will reopen

20 sites across Tokyo and Osaka (both represent 35% of Japan’s box office

collections). Another chain United Cinemas confirmed three reopenings in

Tokyo with masks and socially-distanced seating. In the last weekend of May,

movie theaters in 10 prefectures (Tokyo, Osaka, Kyoto, Nagoya, Fukuoka,

Hyogo, Hokkaido, Hiroshima, Okinawa and Okayama) were still shuttered or

operating under restricted capacity and shortened hours.

Outlook: The industry believes it will see quick recovery and almost full

occupancy (within caps) for major movie releases. The fast recovery in footfalls

and strong support for major releases is an extremely positive trend. We

continue to keep an eye on financial impact of operating under restrictions and

pipeline of major movies.

South Korean cinema

The South Korean cinema industry, in pre-pandemic CY19, was the world’s

fourth largest box office territory, but revenues and admissions for much of

CY21 are still at rock bottom levels. South Korea has controlled the virus better

than many countries, but it has failed to prevent new clusters emerging–

nationwide there have been over 400 new cases per day as per data on June 3,

2021–and anti-virus vaccination levels are currently low.

Discounts for vaccination: As per latest reports, multiplex operators have

started giving discounts for moviegoers who have been vaccinated. Lee Chang-

moo, president of the Korea Theater Association, was quoted by local media as

saying, “we’ve decided to launch this campaign in hopes of encouraging people

to get vaccinated and return to normal daily life as soon as possible.”

This has prompted a muted response in occupancy. Occupancy levels have

failed to recover since a peak in October. For much of 2021 weekend, box office

has languished in the USD3-4mn range. Local news sites have reported that,

“the long-standing malaise has caused several distributors to delay theatrical

releases and divert some key titles directly to streaming platforms. And several

cinemas have closed their doors.”


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Major releases have done well: However, despite general tepid footfalls, major

releases still evinced good response. For example, ‘’The movie Demon Slayer –

Kimetsu No Yaiba The Movie: Mugen Train’’ pulled in large crowds. Collections

also perked up to over USD6mn for the last two weekends of May, propelled by

the arrival of F9 at the top of the chart. F9 has sped off to USD15.1mn

cumulative collections since its release on May 19. That makes it the third

highest grossing film this year in Korea. At this pace, it will soon overtake

“Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train” with a running total of USD17.9mn

and Soul, currently on USD17.1mn. Chains like CGV ran promotions by offering

popcorn in cement bags for discount during May 2021.

Outlook: The market seems to be facing operational difficulties and slow

recovery in occupancy. Pipeline seems to be impacted by delays by movie

producers and shift to OTTs. But once again what’s heartening is the strong

support major releases have garnered.

CGV promotion - Popcorn in cement bags

Source: CGV cinemas

Top grossing movie in Japan and South Korea - Demon Slayer

Source: msn entertainment News

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Conclusion on Eastern markets: Overall, when we look at eastern markets, we find

that the most markets have started permitting theatres to operate, albeit with some

restrictions. Despite some producers delaying movie releases, major movies have

garnered strong support. Similarly, we believe strong content will play a major role

in pulling crowds. There does not seem to be any hit on revenue of major releases

and no discounts in terms of ticket prices for them. This is a strong positive.

F9 performs in East & West markets

Source: msn Entertainment News


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Scenario in Western global markets

European cinema

UK theaters reopen with restrictions and strict rules: Cinemas across England,

Scotland and Wales were allowed to reopen from May 17. Prime Minister Boris

Johnson confirmed the third stage of government’s roadmap to easing

restrictions, which allows for theatres to reopen with rules that need to be

followed by visitors. Ireland has opened cinemas on June 7 with 50 people max

capacity per screen.

Some of the rules in place at various multiplex chains include:

1) Social distancing will be in place, with physically distanced seating. This

means there will be unoccupied seats between parties.

2) Film start times will be staggered to prevent crowds and queues gathering

in foyers, and only pre-packaged food and drinks will be on sale. Cash will

not be accepted.

3) Customers are encouraged to book tickets online where possible to reduce

contact with staff.

4) Face coverings are required inside cinema halls, but once customers are in

their seats they can remove these to enjoy food and drink alone.

5) High touch points like door handles and arm rests will be frequently

sanitised and perspex screens will be erected in areas where social

distancing is difficult to maintain.

UK reopening saw strong box office performance: In the UK, Sony’s animated

comedy Peter Rabbit 2 drove UK cinemas’ box office takings in their reopening

weekend to the highest since the pandemic took hold in 2020, giving a boost to

cinema chains, which had been burning through cash during months of

lockdowns. Overall box office collections at the weekend of reopening came in

at more than GBP7mn, with the speed and size of the return beyond anything

most companies were expecting, UK Cinema Association CEO Phil Clapp told

Reuters.

French cinemas see quick recovery: After six months of shutdown, French

cinemas opened with a bang. Inspite of an audience cap of 35% and a 9 P.M.

curfew, as many as 305,000 tickets were sold on reopening day, making it the

best reopening performance in Europe. Eric Marti at Comscore points out that

“the number of admissions sold yesterday is on par with about the same day in

May 2019, when John Wick: Chapter 4 and Aladdin had just come out. But back

then, there was no cap on audience capacity, and no curfew.”

Some of the highest grossing films on the first day of reopening in France were

animated film Demon Slayer: Mugen Train and animation/live action blend Tom

and Jerry, followed by Quentin Dupieux’s Mandibles and Romain Quirot’s The

Last Journey of Paul W. R.

Local language films do well in second unlock: Last time they reopened after a

long lockdown in June 2020, European cinemas had Christopher Nolan’s Tenet

to lure people back in. In May 2021, however, there wasn’t a single US

blockbuster. Instead, a wide-ranging roster of about 20 films drew huge lines

outside cinemas before the curfew kicked in.

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Outlook: Industry experts are tracking performance of Disney’s Cruella and

Paramount thriller Ä Quiet Place to see if the strong demand for blockbusters

sustains. So far, responses have been positive, with A Quiet Place taking No. 1

position and Cruella No.2 in box office performance.

US cinema

Major US multiplex chains waited for the onset of summer to reopen in 2021. Today

multiplexes like AMC Entertainment, Cinemark and Regal Cinemas have also

allowed visitors who have got both doses of vaccine to remove masks within cinema

halls, after changes in CDC guidelines. The regulatory aspects and restrictions,

however, are more subject to state laws. We have listed an overview of them below.

US regulations in various states (as of 12 May 2021)

Regulations No of States

20-29% Occupancy Cap 8



Strict Social distancing norms 15

Most Restrictions lifted 9

Source: ScreenDaily

US multiplexes pinned hopes on the list of big summer titles that were lined up,

including Fast & Furious, Black Widow, Cruella, 101 Dalmatians and A Quiet Place

part 2. So far, A Quiet Place and Fast and Furious have drawn in considerable

crowds, which is a strong positive.

A number of releases hit OTT platforms only after a theatre launch like CODA.

Disney is slated to release Jungle Cruise simultaneously with a theatre release.

Major films garner good response: Industry analysts have noted that big budget

movies have drawn in attractive amount of crowds and looking ahead movies

like Jungle Cruise, The Green Knight and comedy film Hitman’s wife’s bodyguard

have garnered good response from their trailers and expected to bring in good

crowds.

In the recent months the three big chains have reported strong comeback in

footfalls and revenues with no discounts on tickets for any film category.

Outlook: Overall, we see that the industry is doing well with quick recovery and

good pipeline of movies. We have noticed that the industry did not face any

issues of movie releases being bundled too close together, which allowed big

films to earn maximum box office revenues. The strong comeback in demand is

a positive.

Conclusion on western market: Overall, we see the trend of demand for major films

playing out here as well. We also note that strict safety norms at these theatres have

helped get faster regulatory clearance to reopen, albeit with caps. It is heartening to

see that many chains reported full occupancy (within the caps) at some of their

locations for major films. This shows there is strong pent-up demand.

Also animated movies like Demon Slayer and Disney movies like Cruella went

through theatre screens despite the producers having the ability to do an OTT launch

( Disney has its own OTT which has significant presence worldwide). This is a strong

positive.


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Outlook for Indian market: Huge pent-up demand

India’s multiplex industry has been hit hard by the pandemic over the past one year.

There was very few content coming out as producers decided to delay releases and

wait for normalcy. This kept footfalls tepid even after multiplexes were allowed to

open with restrictions during October 2020.

Single screens take hit: EY has estimated anywhere between 1,000 to 1,500 single

screens to have shut operations due to the pandemic. During conference calls

with PVR and INOX, managements mentioned that many single screens have cut

capacity to rent out the real estate to other shops.

We believe the second wave will further impact single screens. We believe going

ahead impact of second wave, along with the general trend of rising disposable

incomes and multiplexes improving penetration, single screens will further

reduce in India. PVR management, during its latest conference call, mentioned

that multiplexes are improving presence in all addressable markets.

Industry during first unlock: The industry saw easing of restrictions from October

2020, when theatres were allowed to open with caps on occupancy. However,

there was very limited content around to pull crowds.

Tenet, which released in the first week of December, was the first big-budget

Hollywood feature to go for a theatrical release since theatres reopened and had

an impressive first weekend collection and grossed INR105mn in two weeks.

Q3FY21 saw the theatrical release of Bollywood movies such as Suraj Pe Mangal

Bhari and Indoo Ki Jawani, which received modest footfalls overall. Thus,

Q3FY21, for most part, ended up being a negligible quarter.

Regional films to rescue: South Indian cinema grossed more than Hindi cinema

in 2020 as it managed to fit in three hit films which grossed over INR1bn in

domestic theatrical revenues.

During the start of the year 2021 (in Q4FY21), though there was limited major

content from Bollywood and Hollywood, the industry saw some blockbuster

releases in regional market like Master in Tamil kick starting the industry

recovery and instilling confidence among producers. It was heartening to see

almost immediate return of footfalls and strong support from South markets

from December 2020 to March 2021. In fact, these movies garnered almost full

occupancy (within cap) in certain locations and gave high overall occupancy to

multiplexes. It instilled confidence that good content can still pull large crowds

similar to a normal year.

Following these positive sentiments, from Bollywood Roohi was a major film

which was released during Q4FY21, before second wave news hit the market.

Both Roohi and the major regional releases garnered strong support and

multiplexes saw no discount in ticket prices. This strong recovery bodes well for

the industry.

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Regional films garner more share

Source: EY M&E sector re-boost report, March 2021

Major southern films in CY20 and Q4FY21 (INR mn)

Film Domestic gross box office Language

Master 2500 Tamil

Ala Vaikuntapuram 2110 Telugu

Sarileru Neekaveru 1,740 Telugu

Darbar 1,380 Tamil

Pattas 390 Tamil

Bheeshma 350 Telugu

Ancham Pathira 335 Malayalam

Ayyappanum Koshiyum 240 Malayalam

Shylock 230 Malayalam

Naan Sirithaal 180 Tamil

Varane Avasyammunde 180 Malayalam

Source: Edelweiss Research

Second wave hits screens: Once news of the second wave hit, there were more

delays from producers and restrictions from various states. This sent the industry

into a lull again. As we stepped into Q1FY22, theatres were completely shut for

the most part.

Simultaneous and OTT releases: Once news of second covid wave hit some

producers took to OTT platforms to release their movies in India and abroad. Big

budget film like Radhe and some much awaited movies from Hollywood like The

Old Guard, Mulan, Enola Holmes, etc., were released on OTT. But we believe that

there is no structural threat to the multiplex industry.

Theaters still remain favourite of producers: PVR management, during its latest

conference call, mentioned that this is an experiment and there is no major shift

towards OTT releases among producers. This is evident from what we have seen

in other markets, where once theatres opened up even with restrictions,

producers preferred to go to them first. Particularly, we have seen that

producers of big budget movies would prefer to wait and release in theatres than

OTT.

44% 41%

57%

45% 46%

39%

11% 14%4%

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

CY18 CY19 CY20

Regional Bollywood Hollywood


Mediascope


For example, after initial talks about release on Amazon, the producers of Bond

movie No Time to Die have said they will wait for theatre release. Similarly, as

per PVR management, many big budget Bollywood movies like Sooryavanshi, ‘83,

Atrangi Re, Prithviraj, Jersey, Bachchan Pandey etc., are waiting for better time

for theatre release. Producers of major southern film RRR have also announced

that OTT release on Zee5 will be after theatre release.

We believe OTT platforms have definitely received a push due to the pandemic.

But, halls and OTT will co-exist. Producers will continue to release first in theatres

as it gives them better upside and then on OTT immediately after a few weeks to

earn from both media. Disney, for example, has decided to release its major film

Cruella first on screens for a few weeks despite owning its own OTT platform

Disney+.

Phased reopening: We expect with the strong vaccination drive, population in

tier 1 and 2 cities will see a higher proportion of vaccinated individuals compared

to the nation’s average. This should prompt phased reopening in these cities,

which also form major market for multiplexes. As per MINT and a few other film

trade specialists, phased resumption of cinema is most likely. "We should be

looking at a three-month period for all cinemas to open up nationally," Mr.

Gautam Dutta, CEO, PVR, said.

Present situation across states: The Maharashtra government has allowed

multiplexes to reopen in low risk areas. It has allowed normal reopening in “Level

1” areas and reopening with 50% cap in “Level 2”areas. Delhi and Chandigarh

have also allowed reopening of malls, bars and gyms with restrictions, though

currently theaters remain shut for this phase of reopening, it is still a positive

sign.

The industry is closely monitoring the pandemic situation and state regulations

as the next good window for releases would be during the upcoming festivals in

Q3FY22. Industry leaders have said that they will also talk to regulators regarding

opening up initially with strict rules as we have seen in Maharashtra and other

markets like UK.

Box office growth and projections

Source: CRISIL media industry report

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Upcoming Bollywood pipeline

Movie Cast

BUNTY AUR BABLI 2 Rani Mukerji, Saif Ali Khan

SOORYAVANSHI Akshay Kumar, Katrina Kaif, Gulshan Grover

SATYAMEVA JAYATE 2 John Abraham, Divya Khosla Kumar

BELL BOTTOM Akshay Kumar, Mrunal Thakur

83 Ranveer Singh, Deepika Padukone

SHAMSHERA Ranbir Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Vaani Kapoor

CHANDIGARH KARE AASHIQUI Ayushmann Khurrana, Vaani Kapoor

GANGUBAI KATHIAWADI Alia Bhatt, Ajay Devgan, Shantanu Maheshwar

ATRANGI RE Akshay Kumar, Sara Ali Khan, Dhanush

ATTACK John Abraham, Rakul Preet Singh

JAYESHBHAI JORDAAR Ranveer Singh, Shalini Pandey

ANEK Ayushmann Khurrana

DHAAKAD Kangana Ranaut, Arjun Rampal

MAIDAAN Ajay Devgan, Keerthy Suresh

PRITHVIRAJ (DIWALI) Akshay Kumar, Manushi Chhilar

JERSEY Shahid Kapoor, Mrunal Thakur

BHOOL BHULAIYAA 2 Kartik Aryan, Kiara Advani

BRAHMASTRA Ranbir Kapoor, Alia Bhatt

Source: PVR and INOX investor presentation


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Major upcoming Bollywood pipeline

Source: PVR investor presentation

Our expectations going ahead: We believe the industry has strong pent-up

demand and a lot of good content which producers are sitting on. Bollywood

films are likely to release quicker as a number of international markets are

opening up and Bollywood movies derive significant revenue from these

markets. We remain confident regarding the industry’s ability to bounce back

quickly as and when regulations become lax. As seen in other markets, major

films will still be able to pull in crowds as before and collections should recover

fast.

Mediascope



PVR management outlook

Source: PVR


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Aditya Narain

Head of Research

[email protected]

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