african training desk national centers for environmental predictions
DESCRIPTION
African Training Desk National Centers for Environmental Predictions. Staff Wassila M. Thiaw, Team Leader Vadlamani Kumar Endalkachew Bekele Visitors from NMHSs. African Desk NCEP International Desks. Mission: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
African Training DeskNational Centers for Environmental Predictions
Staff
Wassila M. Thiaw, Team Leader
Vadlamani Kumar
Endalkachew Bekele
Visitors from NMHSs
2
Training Coverage
African DeskNCEP International Desks
Week1 PrecipitationProbability of exceedance
Mission:• Support capacity building at NMHSs in Africa: Professional development training in weather and climate and product exchange
• Provide access to NCEP global data and products to promote decision support services in developing countries: Africa, Afghanistan, Central America
New Website
Africa Hazards
Overview
• African Training Desk established in 1994 – WMO/VCP– Climate Training Desk – Support to WMO/ CLIPS– Weather Training Desk – Support to WMO/ SWFDP
• Evolved to focus on DSS:USAID/ FEWSNET & OFDA, USDA Foreign Ag Service, and WMO– Africa, central America, the Caribbean, and Afghanistan– Real time monitoring for humanitarian assistance– Food security– Disaster Risk Reduction– Health Early Warning System
3
• Provides an opportunity for professional meteorologists in Africa to train at NCEP on operational weather and climate forecasting as part of the US contributions to the WMO VCP
• Operates a Climate Desk and a Weather Forecasting Desk. Each desk has the capacity to host 6 meteorologists per year arriving at staggered intervals of 2 months for a total of 12.
• NWS provides a 4-month WMO/VCP fellowship
• Training is hands-on in an operational setting with an instructor to monitor daily activities and progress
Concept of NCEP African Desk
• Objective is to help strengthen the capacities of the NMHSs in weather and climate forecasting
• Focus on the operational use and application of numerical model products, climate forecasting and monitoring tools
• All fellows must submit a WMO VCP application form to WMO and NWS to be considered
Concept of NCEP African Desk
African Training Desk
• Partnership– National Weather Service International Activities– WMO– African NMHSs– African regional institutions
• Resources– NCEP – base– WMO VCP– USAID
6
Weather Desk Training Curriculum
• NAWIPS• Use and interpretation of NWP• Use of ensembles in operational weather
forecasting• Write forecast bulletins• GIS applications• Week-1 forecasts• Access and process large data• Conduct model verification studies• WRF modeling
Visitor’Projects
8
Khalid Muwembe, Uganda Met Service
Guy Razafindrakoto, Madagascar Met Service
International Program web Interface
NCEP NWP Products
CPC/International Desk
Spaghetti diagram, for 5700 and 5780gpm isolines of 500mb
Probability of 10m wind, exceeding 10kts
Probability of daily rainfall, exceeding 10mm
NCEP NWP Products
GEFS Precipitation Probability of Exceedance
Ensemble Mean Ensemble Spread
Ensemble Products, GEFS, 24 to 72-hr rainfall Forecasts
Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009
Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009
Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009
Deterministic Probabilistic , 30mm/day thresholdDeterministic Vs. probabilistic Forecast, GFS VS GEFS
Day 1, Aug. 31, 2009
Day 2, Sep. 1, 2009
Day 3, Seo. 2, 2009
African Desk Forecast Guidance for Africa
Surface and Column Parameters
17
Daily QPF
Probability of Pexceedance
Rainfall anomalyLast 7 days
Grid Box P daily evolution - last 90 days
Real Time Access to Products
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/
2. Current StatusReal Time Monitoring
7 days 30 days
180 days 90 days
Daily Evolution
19
Collect points, andother relevant data
and convert to apoint shapefile
GFS Forecasts
JTWC and NWSOfficial Tracking
Points
TRMM Data
Sum up forduration of cyclone
and convert intoA GIS raster
Send all to awindows platformand merge into a
graphic
Email graphic tointerested partiesand send to web
CPC Global Tropical Alert System
20
Automatic Tracking of Global TC Development
TC Hina, 23 Feb 2009South Central Indian Ocean
TC Gael, 2-11 Feb 2009Southwestern Indian Ocean
21
WRF Modeling Experiments for Africa
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/wrf_fcst/safrica/
22
Some output of the wrf model
• Wrf forecast valid 0600z and 0900z, 17/10/2008 and data time 0000z 16/10/2008 (i.e. the model run was of 0000z of 16/10/2008)
• The actual observations were as shown on the next slide
WRF EMS – Tanzania Experience
Courtesy, P. Mlonganile, TMA
23
Lake Forecast (Nested)
•
data time is 0000z, 18/10/2008. For the forecast starting after 0600z on 18/10/2008 to 0900z, 19/10/1008.
Compare with the observations to the next slide Courtesy, P. Mlonganile, TMA
Future Plan
• Work with other NOAA agencies to expand the African Training Desk; e.g., aviation weather & marine forecasting
• Conduct field visits in the form of workshops for former African Desk trainees
• Continue to work with sister agencies within the US government to improve DSS and early warning systems