africa global cement ex-works and trade prices - 1q2017 in … 1q2017_ck pa... · 2017-04-20 ·...

Africa

Global Cement Ex-Works and

Trade Prices - 1Q2017 in review

Webinar presentation

CW Group LLC | T: +1-702-866-9474 | F: +1-928-832-4762 | Connecticut, USA

April 20, 2017

Client Confidential Information

Presenters

2

Ana AlmeidaAnalyst

[email protected]

M:+351 913 765 688

Ana is an analyst for CW Research quantitative and

qualitative analyses

Focuses on primary and secondary research for key reports,

including the cement and clinker price assessments

Responsible for providing qualitative and quantitative

analysis for the CW Research’s global price and volume

assessments in the cement

Degree in Economics from University of J.J.Strossmayer in

Osijek, Croatia

Tea VukicevicAssociate Analyst

[email protected]

M: +351 918 060 353

mailto:[email protected]



Agenda

Introduction to CW Group

Cement and Clinker Monthly Price Assessments

− Monthly cement trade price and volumes update

− Closing remarks

GCTPR 1Q2017 highlights

− GCTPR overview and methodology

− Context snapshot: Worldwide cement demand

− Gray cement exports: LT pricing trend and outlook

− Ex-works pricing

− Closing remarks

3


4

About the CW Group

CEMENT, BUILDING

MATERIALS &

CONSTRUCTION

STEEL, METALS &

MINING

CHEMICALS DRY BULK CARGO,

PORTS AND

INFRASTRUCTURE

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AND SOLID FUELS

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technicalNetwork & access Proprietary data

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SUPPORTMEDIA & MEETINGS

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Syndicated market /

industry study reports

Reference forecasts

Data and chart-books

Commodity price

assessments

Market reporting services

Newsletters

Online data access

Publications

Meetings

Advisory Research Media


5

Cement and Clinker Monthly Price

Assessments


Methodology of cement and clinker price assessments

6

Primary research by

engaging in interactions with

traders in the three covered

regions

Aggregating price points

obtained through primary

research

Establishing price markers

for the three regions

Who this report is for

Understanding monthly prices of exported and

imported cement and clinker

Understand tactic and strategic demand drivers

Keep up to date with the cement and clinker trade

Benefits of subscribing to the report

Cement traders

Cement producers

Cement users / buyers

Bulk cargo shippers / charterers


Price assessment series overview

7

Monthly prices for ordinary Portland

cement and ordinary grade clinker

Delivery on a free-on-board basis

(FOB) for prompt cargoes (30-60)

Mediterranean Basin

(FOB)

Twice-monthly prices of imported

petcoke delivered on a cost and

freight (CFR) basis

Compare pricing on an mmBtu basis

to coal

India East Coast (CFR)

India West Coast (CFR)

Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea

(FOB)

East Africa (CFR)

Cement

and

Clinker

Prices

Petcoke

prices


100

Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17

8

Cement and clinker price assessment: Mediterranean Basin

-1.6%

100


-1.0%

Fx(U

SD

/TR

Y)

FOB ordinary

Portland

cement bulk:

MedBasin

(US$/ton)

FOB ordinary

grade clinker

bulk: MedBasin

(US$/ton)

3.0

4.0

16-Nov-16 2-Dec-16 18-Dec-16 3-Jan-17 19-Jan-17 4-Feb-17 20-Feb-17 8-Mar-17 24-Mar-17 9-Apr-17Jan-17 Mid Jan-17 Feb-17 Mid Feb-17 Mar-17 Mid Apr-17Mid Mar-17 Apr-17


Cement and clinker price assessment: Persian Gulf- Arabian Sea

9

100


100


3.1%

2.7%

Fx(U

SD

/PK

R)

FOB ordinary

Portland

cement bulk:

Persian Gulf-

Arabian Sea

(US$/ton)

FOB ordinary

Portland clinker

bulk: Persian

Gulf-Arabian

Sea (US$/ton)

103

106

Jan-17 Mid Jan-17 Feb-17 Mid Feb-17 Mar-17 Mid Apr-17Mid Mar-17 Apr-17


Cement and clinker price assessment: Med Basin and Persian Gulf-

Arabian Sea

10

FOB ordinary

Portland cement

bulk: MedBasin

(US$/ton)

FOB ordinary

grade clinker

bulk: MedBasin

(US$/ton)

FOB ordinary

Portland cement

bulk: Persian

Gulf-Arabian

Sea (US$/ton)

FOB ordinary

Portland clinker

bulk: Persian

Gulf-Arabian

Sea (US$/ton) Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17

-1.5%

Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17

-25.6%



2.6%

-19.0%


For more information or to take part in CW’s Price Assessments

11

Participate in PAs

Exchange market color and intelligence with the CW

Research team (anonymously)

The PAs are the result of interactions with traders and

cement manufacturers

Purchase

Subscriptions

Annual electronic subscription for individual, site license and

corporate license

The product is available on a stand-alone basis or as an

add-on option to CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price

Report

Contact

Contact the CW team at [email protected] or

+1-702-866-9474

Contact Ana Almeida at [email protected] if interested in

participating in PA calls




12

GCTPR: 1Q2017 update highlights


Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR)

13

MAIN CONTENT

Quarterly reports (annual subscription)

Qualitative analysis on volumes and prices and trends in or

global markets

Benchmark report that allows unique insights on:

– Gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated slag prices

(US$/ton)

– Import and export prices

– Regional price indices

– Monthly trade volumes (tonnages)

– Ex-works and retail level pricing

Market information for key markets around the world

– 70 countries covered for trading data

– Monthly prices provided at global, regional and country level

9 Months of historical information + next quarter forecast

For a complete listing of focus countries as well as more details visit:

http://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/industries/cement-building-

materials/product/1-global-cement-trade-price-report

http://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/industries/cement-building-materials/product/1-global-cement-trade-price-report


GCTPR: Country coverage

14


Methodology high-light: forecast modeling and gap bridging

Forecast prices estimated from the last available month to the

ending month of the subsequent quarter (e.g. 1Q2017 report will

contain forecast prices up to June 2017)

Projections are forecasted using a country-by-country, product-by-

product and flow-by-flow time-series regression methodology

– R-square values are consistently above 0.95

– Periodically revised statistical model

– Data-gap filling through model and “last tick” pricing

15


16

YTD cement demand growth (%)

• Cement consumption expected to

improve in line with the economic

output growth

China

U.S. • Ongoing demand growth supported

by residential spending

Saudi Arabia • Slow investment in infrastructure

creating new declines in cement

demand

Russia• Overall market continues declining,

construction expected to pick up by

the end of 2017

Highlights

Note*: Cement demand estimated based on production volumes

India • Demand growth impacted by post-

demonetization, recovery on the way

In 2016, the general trend for cement volumes showed recovery in

key markets, but some major ones continue to decline

-20% -10% 0% 10%

Italy*

India*

Russia*

Saudi Arabia

Canada

Brazil

Colombia

Spain

Pakistan

Thailand

Argentina

China*

United States

Japan

Turkey

YTD (Dec-16) YTD (Jan-17)

Turkey • Large infrastructure projects and

booming property market driving the

demand


Median FOB prices for gray cement seeing signs of shy recovery at

the end of 4Q2016

17

Global gray cement price index (USD/ ton)

100

200

Jan-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Apr-

13

Ma

y-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-1

3

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-

13

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Jan-1

4

Feb

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Apr-

14

Ma

y-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-1

4

Aug-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan-1

5

Feb

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Apr-

15

Ma

y-1

5

Jun-1

5

Jul-1

5

Aug-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-1

6

Jun-1

6

Jul-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Sep-1

6

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Median (USD/ton) High price (USD/ton) Low price (USD/ton)


Gray cement volumes falling during the quarter, followed by declining

trend in cement FOB prices

18

Global FOB prices for gray cement (USD/ton)

Global gray cement exports (‘000 tons)

3,000

6,000

9,000

Thailand Turkey China Greece Others

40

80

Global gray cement FOB (USD/ton)


Forecast

Stable outlook for FOB pricing in N.A. and APJ, while the rest of the

regions are projected to see prices declining further

19

Regional gray cement export prices (USD/ton)

30

60

90

Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17

Asia Pacific Japan Eastern Europe Mediterranean Basin

North America & Caribbean Scandinavia & Baltics Western Europe


YoY increases in ex-works prices seen in major markets; QoQ

declines in Thailand, Indonesia and Southern India

4Q2016 YoY

-35.0% to -28.6%

-28.6% to -22.1%

-22.1% to -15.7%

-15.7% to -9.2%

-9.2% to -2.8%

-2.8% to 3.7%

3.7% to 10.1%

10.1% to 23.0%

23.0% to 53.0%


Improved pricing environment in China, while in Indonesia

overcapacity and high competition lead to pricing pressures

21

Argentina (USD/ton) Brazil (USD/ton) China (USD/ton)

U.S. (USD/ton)Indonesia (USD/ton)India (USD/ton)

140

140140 140

140 140


Post-demonetization could pressure prices in India; High competition

pushing down prices in Turkey

Region Outlook

Asia-Pacific-Japan Australia: cement producers increasing prices

India: prices highly volatile due to the demonetization

Indonesia: pricing environment improving

Eastern Europe

Russia: average selling prices expected to slightly

improve

Ukraine: considerable price increase due to the high

energy costs

Mediterranean Basin

Egypt: positive expectations on future pricing

Turkey: prices to remain subdued due to high

competition

Italy: slightly more favorable pricing environment

Middle East Saudi Arabia: volatile pricing environment continues to

1Q2017

North America and The Caribbean U.S.: sales prices most likely to increase further

Mexico: further increases expected in ex-works pricing

South America Colombia: stable scenario in ex-works pricing

Argentina: unfavorable pricing environment

Western Europe France: cement manufacturers expect ex-works price

stabilization

22


GCTPR 1Q2017 update: Closing remarks

Global average FOB prices for gray cement down 5% (by USD 3.1

per ton) YoY in 4Q2016

– Quarterly volumes dropped ~18% YoY for the set of reporting countries with

complete data for the quarter (accounting for +80% of global volume)

– Prices expected to decline further, particularly in E. Europe, Med. Basin

Clinker FOB rates at -14% YoY in 4Q2016

– Volumes down ~17% YoY for set of reporting countries with complete data

for 4Q2016 (~85% of global volume)

Global slag export prices up 7% YoY in 4Q2016

23

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consulting. Our deep sector expertise covers

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CW Advisory works with boards and senior

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Connecticut, USA.

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africa global cement ex-works and trade prices - 1q2017 in … 1q2017_ck pa... · 2017-04-20 ·...

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