aerosol - a comparative study on multi-model …...a comparative study on multi-model numerical...
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Zifa Wang, Hajime Akimoto and Greg Carmichael,
Xiaole Pan, Xueshun Chen, Jianqi Hao(IAP/CAS) , Wei
Wang (CMEMC), and MICS-Asia III Working Group
A comparative study on multi-model
numerical simulation of black carbon in
East Asia
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Black carbon in the atmosphere
Biomass burning
& wild fires
Cooking & heating
in rural area
Industry
On-road transport
Ship emissions
1. Direct climate effect by absorbing
incoming solar radiation
2. Indirect climate effect by influencing
cloud formation and lifetime
(Bond et al., 2013)
Glacier melting
Definition by EPA: Black carbon (BC) is the most strongly light-absorbing component of particulate matter (PM), and is
formed by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass.
Emission
Environmental effect
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100
80
60
40
20
0
OC
(µ
g/m
3)
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Day of Month (June 2006)
40
30
20
10
0
EC
(µ
g/m
3)
40
30
20
10
0
MA
AP
_B
C (µ
g/m
3)
25
2015
105
0
BC
e (
PM
2.5
, µ
g/m
3)
2520151050BCe ( PM1, µg/m
3)
OCRB OCRB
ECa
OC
BCe(PM1)
BCe(PM2.5)
Biomass burning cases during Mt.Tai (1534 m) Campaign
Hotspots by MODIS observation
High BC concentration (10~30 ug/m3)
Footprint calculated by FLEXPART model
(Pan et al., 2013)
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Long term observation (2006 - 2015) of BC mass concentration in East Asia
Observation site
Fukue island
Beijing (2007)
10 ~15 μgm-3
Mt.Tai (2006)
20 ~30 μgm-3
Rudong (2010)
2 ~10 μgm-3
Jeju island (2012)
1 ~2 μgm-3
BC Instrument 1: COSMOS
Inlet flow is heated to 300℃
Light absorbing method
Significant decrease of BC concentration along the transport pathway
indicates that the long range transport ability of BC from Asian continent is
very limited!
0.36μgm-3
BC Instrument 2: MAAP
Without heating,
Light absorbing method
Obvious summer-low and winter-high pattern with a mean of 0.36μgm-3
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BC concentration in Fukue island showed decreasing trend in the
past 7 years.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15
How about the ability of different air quality models?
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The Model InterComparison Study for Asia
MICS-Asia Phase I and II
• To obtain common understanding of model performance and uncertainties in Asia.
• MICS-Asia Phase I (1990-2000), long-range transport and deposition of sulfur.
• MICS-Asia Phase II (2001-2009), taking into account more species than Phase I.
sulfur, nitrogen compounds, ozone and aerosols
Achievement of MICS-Asia II were published in AE in 2008
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20 groups from China, Japan, USA, Korea and Countries in
South Asia added the MICS-Asia III, and had Joint with
HTAP for hemispheric study
HTAP& MICS-Asia workshop,Beijing,2015
MICS-Asia III and HTAP
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OBJECTIVES of MICS-Asia III
To evaluate strengths and weaknesses of current multi-scale air quality models and provide techniques to reduce uncertainty in Asia
To develop a reliable anthropogenic emission inventories in Asia and understand uncertainty of bottom-up emission inventories in Asia
To provide multi-model estimates of radiative forcing and sensitivity analysis of short-lived climate pollutants
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To understand and improve air quality models, we need to
Assessing the ability of models to reproduce pollutant concentrations under highly polluted conditions (Regional Haze and High Ozone);
Quantifying uncertainties of each process (phys and chem), model resolutions (hori and vert) and key boundary layer parameters.
Investigating the air quality responses to specific emissions perturbations in a common case.
(Shao et al,
2006)
Air Pollution Complex in Asia: Regional Haze and High Ozone
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Model domains
Model domain (D2) for Southeast
Asia
D1 for Southeast Asia is exactly the
same as that for Northeast Asia.
Model domains (D1, D2, and D3)
for Northeast Asia
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• Gridded emission
Anthropogenic emissions datasets:
Mosaic national emission inventories of China, Japan, Korea,
India ,Thailand.
Other anthropogenic emission, such as aircraft and
shipping emissions
Natural emissions datasets:
Biomass burning, Biogenic, Volcano, Dust, Sea-salt, Soil Nox
and HONO, Lightning NOx
• Meteorological fields
Prepared the same meteorological model (WRF or other
models) to drive air quality models.
Prepared inputs for all the participated models
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Multi-Model comparison of BC (Jan.2010)
M1 M2 M3
M4
M7
M6 M5
M9 M10
M1
The simulation
performance on
BC are almost
the same except
M1 in Jan.,2010.
Higher BC concentration
in North China Plain (NCP)
and South Tibetan Plateau
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Multi-Model comparison of BC (Jul.2010)
The simulation
performance on
BC are almost
the same except
M1 in Jul.,2010.
Higher BC concentration
in North China Plain (NCP)
and South Tibetan Plateau
M2 M3
M4
M7
M6 M5
M9 M10
M1
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BC simulation in different regions
IAP(North) Xiamen
(South) Significant
seasonal
variation
occurs in
NCP
China
Japan
Happ
o
Hedo
Higher concentration distributes over China, especially in the
north Higher concentration appered in winter and lower in
summer
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BC simulation in different regions
Bangkok
Thailand
Jakarta
Indonesia
Higher consistency of multi-
model in Summer (Northern
Hemisphere)
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Aerosol (soot) climate and environmental effects depend on
Concentration
Composition
Size
Mixing state
Emission
Transport, deposition
Microphysics
Chemical reaction
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NAQPMS+APM describes nucleation, condensation/evaporation,
coagulation and size-resolved deposition.
NAQPMS+APM
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Introduction to APM
Mixing state: semi-external
•Secondary particles
•Primary particles + coating
微物理过程:
•Nucleation:IMN or other
•Condensation:sulfuric acid
•Equilibrium:Nitrate, ammonium,
SOA
•Coagulation:Self-coagulation of
secondary particles and coagulation
scavenging by other particles
Primary particles + coating
Clusters Secondary particles
CCN
NPF
Nucleation
Condensation
Coagulation
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Secondary particles: 40 bins
Sea salt:20 bins
Dust:4 bins or 15 bins
BC/OC:lognomal/28 bins
Particles representation
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Carbonaceous particles size bins
Size bins:
10nm-10μm, 28 bins
Coagulation:
Jacobson(1994)
Ageing
e-folding time: 1.2 day
Coagulation can be considered;
Model can be constrained by observed BC size distribution.
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Particles number size distribution in Beijing
Observed
Simulated
Secondary
particles
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Evolution of microphysics parameters
DBC+coating/DBC
Condensation sink
Sulfuric acid
Ncleation rate
Pollution
NPF
DBC+coating/DBC can be as high as
1.5 or obove, BC mixing state
was changed;
Condensational sink was higher
in pollution episodes;
Sulfuric aid concentration
showed a evident diurnal
variation;
Nucleation rate was higher in
NPF event;
NPF can be identified and
reproduced by NAQPMS+APM.
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Key parameters of BC in central-eastern China
BC conc(ug/m3)
Sulfate on BC(ug/m3)
Hydrophilic BC frc(%)
DBC+coating/DBC(-)
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Microphysics parameters in central-eastern China
CN10nm(cm-3) Secondary particles
fraction(%) Growth factor of
BC(-)
H2SO4(g)(107cm-3) Condensational
sink(s-1) IMN(cm-3s-1)
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National Air Quality Operational Platform
Scheme of the national forecasting model system
Data Input
Meteorology Emissions Air Quality
Meteorological & Emissions Models
WRF SMOKE
Assembling Air Quality Models
NAQPMS, CMAQ,CAMx, WRF-chem
Products
AQI Concentrations GIS
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Regional forecast operation system
NAQPMS CMAQ
CAMx WRF-CHEM
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Regional forecast operation system
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Regional forecast operation system
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Regional forecast operation system
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Regional forecast operation system
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case1
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case2
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Thanks for your attention.