aeronautical decision making 2007 downloaded from

Aeronautical Decision Making2007

Downloaded from www.avhf.com

CFI and Accidents Three-quarters (75%) of the inadvertent gear retractions that occur during flight training

happen when a flight instructor is on board.

Half (50%) of the stall accidents that occur during flight training have a flight instructor on board.

One-third (33%) of the fuel starvation accidents during flight training occur with a flight instructor on board.

Half (50%) of the mid-airs that happen during flight training had a CFI on board.

Forty percent (40%) of the carburetor icing accidents in flight training had a CFI on board.

Half (50%) of the wire strikes during flight training had a CFI on board.

Source: Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine

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The Mental Aspects of Flying

Aspect:

A way in which a thing may be viewed or regarded

Everything that we are able to perceive, whether visually or mentally, has some meaning

The challenge then is to correctly ascertain the significance of what we are doing, or about to do, and

what the outcome might beEasier said than done.

Some perceptions are ranked higher than others, in the normal course of events

Some are important, others are urgent We have a tendency to revert back to a

“Conditioned Response”.

WHY ???

Aeronautical Decision MakingStarts Long BEFORE the Flight

Weather Plane Self

>>>Options to the Flight>>>.

Bottom Line: AM I SAFE ?

Arrogance Plus Plane, Minus Caution, Equals A Foregone Conclusion ……J.D. Wettering

After all is said and done, was the flight absolutely necessary when factoring in all of the elements

There are old pilots and there are bold pilots, but are there old, bold pilots????

EGOEGO

Meanings ofHazardous Attitudes

Resignation….What’s the use!!!!!

NEW Meaning:Resignation….Quit…

Give up...I’ve Lost...Denial Timid.


Impulsive…..Do something quickly

NEW Meaning:Impulsive…..Hasty….

Irrational…Sudden…InstinctiveSome Good.


Anti-Authority…Don’t Tell me

NEW Meaning:Anti-Authority…

Arrogant..Selfish..Defiant.


Macho…I can do it

NEW Meaning:Macho…Overly Assertive Aggressive….Dominating.


Invulnerable..It won’t happen to me

NEW Meaning:Invulnerable….Can not be hurt..

A Very Real False Sense of Security

Most Accidents have been Pre-determined before the plane takes off

An accident, willing and able to happen Think through the Consequences

Before, During and After the Flight If it helps, Draw Mental Picture of the Situation When things change, you change

What is your plan “B”……if you have one.

What Some Fail to UnderstandWhat Some Fail to Understand

Physical…..Impairments

Psychological…..What we have already created in our minds and what we can create during the flight

Denial..Resistance..Uncertainty ..Shock... AcceptanceHopefully Results are good.

Basics to Decision MakingBasics to Decision Making

Night Flight….0345Z …. Pilot is VFR Only Wx getting worse…..ATIS ..X…..Y Airport Challenging…..TAXI No Personal Minimums No Options for the Trip Controller & Others Influence Decisions A Very Powerful Airplane No Apprehension About Making the Flight

An Accident and What We Know

The Background of an Accident

Three out of town friends, the Pilot and his wife having finished a late afternoon dinner, climbed into a Twin Cessna 320C for a return trip back home to Salina.

The short hop was through a valley with 830’ ridges on either side.

The VFR Only pilot and his guests were less than 20 minutes away by car, or, 10 minutes flight time.

ATIS INFORMATION “X”:

0245z(GMT) EC900 OC 7 57/51 290/8 29.94 TOPS 1800’ ILS 10 28 110.7

ATIS INFORMATION “Y”:

0345Z EC 700 OC 7 57/50 260/5 29.97 TOPS 1900 ILS 10 LDG & Departing 10 & 28

7AE: MONTEREY GROUND CONTROL, TWIN CESSNA 877AE

MONT GND: TWIN CESSNA 7AE MONTEREY...

7AE : THIS 877AE DOWN AT THE END OF DEL MONTE I WOULD LIKE CLEARANCE TO THE ACTIVE RUNWAY PLEASE ……

MONT GRD: TWIN CESSNA 7AE ..AH .. STATE YOUR DEPARTURE REQUEST… MONTEREY IS BELOW BASIC VFR AND DO YOU HAVE

THE CURRENT INFORMATION

7AE: ..ah..NEGATIVE ..ah ..I’m ONLY VFR…..

MONT GRD: Monterey is below BASIC VFR and I see No break in the Overcast in the area from where we are at…

7AE: ah.. This 7AE is there any possibilities that we can Takeoff on 36 down to Gonzales……

MONT GRD: OK.. What did you what to do……..?

7AE: Takeoff toward Salinas Valley……….

7AE: What ceilings do we have out here……..?

MONT GRD: We are estimating: Ceiling 700 Overcast Visibility 7……

7AE: Will this get me over to ..ah..Salinas Valley and over to the Mountains or is there Overcast there to….?

MONT GRD: OK..Standby and let me check the current Salinas Weather……

MONT GRD: Salinas..Monterey?…Salinas my WX is EC 700 OC 7 57/50 280/5 9.97 Tops 1900..Have you got your up yet…..ah no not at this time…What does look like to the Southeast of you?…ah aircraft report that about SVFR 30 …..15..20 minutes ago

about 4 or 5 miles South Clear….and ONE ECHO CHARLIE is on the ground….ONE ECHO CHARLIE is on the Ground !!!!!!! ….. Thank you.. And Can I have the CONTROL ZONE W….You are going to have to talk to North ..this Ground OK….OK

MONT GRD: Twin Cessna 7AE ..ah Salinas doesn’t have any of their new WX yet…Last hour they were reporting 900 Broken 20000 Broken.. Aircraft Reporting VFR 5 miles Southeast of Salinas..

7AE: We probably can make it out to South end of Salinas Right….?( NEG…………)

MONT GRD: Understand you what to depart Eastbound and then follow the Highway..?

7AE: ah..Roger..

MONT GRD: Roger.. Taxi to Runway 10…you are CLEARED out of the Monterey Control Zone…5 miles East and maintain SPECIAL VFR conditions while you are in the Control Zone…

7 AE:……. ah..7AE ah……Roger …..Thank You

MONT GRD: Twin Cessna 7AE Runway 10 you are headed for 6…and you are ah…. Familiar…?

7 AE: …………this place several times……

MONT GRD: 7AE…. A left turn…take…continue the left turn about another 30 or 40 degrees to the left…7AE continue the left turn and just about ahead of you..you should see some Blue lights

7AE: Alright…

MONT GRD: ….That will take you to the approach end of Runway 10

7AE: Control 7AE …You Say ……..only 900’ altitude in the Salinas Valley and then from there…

MONT GRD: NEGATIVE SIR ..I just reported that Monterey was reporting 700 OC Vis. 7…Salinas last hour was reporting 900 OC with clear skies REPORTED by a pilot up to 45 minutes ago that it was clear 5 Southeast of Salinas.

I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THE WX IS EAST OF MONTEREY BETWEEN MONTEREY AND SALINAS OR IF THE WX SOUTHEAST OF MONTEREY IS STILL VALID……..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

7AE: OK….Thank you…..

7AE: Control this Twin Cessna 7AE………. I GUESS we are ready to takeoff…….

MONT GRD: CHEROKEE 7AE cleared for takeoff…..

MONT TWR: and Twin Cessna 7AE do you have the highway in sight…?

7AE: 7AE Roger…..

MONT TWR: OK.. Just keep the highway and stay toward the highway and that will take you out the Salinas Valley..and stand by this frequency while in the Control Zone

7AE: 7 AE Roger..

Commercial 241: Monterey Tower 241 on the ILS outside…..

MONT TWR: …West Monterey Tower.. clear to land 10...wind calm..

Commercial 241: Cleared to land…..

MONT TWR: Twin Cessna 7AE TURN LEFT……….. TURN LEFT .. YOU ARE HEADED TO HIGH TERRAIN IN THAT DIRECTION …..TURN LEFT AT SUGGESTED HEADING 060……!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MONT TWR: TWIN CESSNA 7AE MONTEREY… TWIN CESSNA 7AE MONTEREY APPROACH CONTROL … MONTEREY TOWER………

ATIS INFORMATION “X”:

0245z(GMT) EC900 OC 7 57/51 290/8 29.94 TOPS 1800’ ILS 10 28 110.7

ATIS INFORMATION “Y”:

0345Z EC 700 OC 7 57/50 260/5 29.97 TOPS 1900 ILS 10 LDG & Departing 10 & 28

Analyzing the Accident… using Hazardous Attitudes

No ATIS / WX…….Invulnerable.

VFR pilot flying at night…..Impulsive

7AE: Monterey Ground Control Twin Cessna 877AE.


I have a Flight , Nothing Can Hurt Me,.... Invulnerable.

Night Flight, I’m good ..Macho I’m in the plane and ready to go…

Impulsive No ATIS / Wx… Anti-Authority

7AE : THIS 877AE DOWN AT THE END OF DEL MONTE I WOULD LIKE CLEARANCE TO THE ACTIVE RUNWAY PLEASE ……


Can see the overcast isn’t a concern …….Invulnerable.

VFR pilot flying at night…..Impulsive 10:00pm at Night…………..Macho

MONT GRD: TWIN CESSNA 7AE ..AH .. STATE YOUR DEPARTURE REQUEST… MONTEREY IS BELOW BASIC VFR ..AND DO YOU HAVE THE CURRENT INFORMATION

7AE: ..ah..NEGATIVE ..ah ..I’m ONLY VFR…..

MONT GRD: Monterey is below BASIC VFR and I see No break in the Overcast in the area from where we are at…

7AE: ah.. This 7AE is there any possibilities that we can Takeoff on 36 down to Gonzales……

MONT GRD: OK.. What did you what to do……..?


Going to some way….Invulnerable. I don’t see a problem….Macho Surely I can suggest something

else…..Impulsive Challenging ATIS/ Tower….Anti-authority VFR and Going……Impulsive

7AE: Takeoff toward Salinas Valley……….

7AE: What ceilings do we have out here……..?

MONT GRD: We are estimating Ceiling 700 Overcast Visibility 7……


Go Back to ATIS…….Invulnerable. Indifference….Macho Tone of Exasperation…..Impulsive Tone of Desperation……Resignation

7AE: Will this get me over to ..ah..Salinas Valley and over to the Mountains or is there Overcast there to….?

MONT GRD: OK..Standby and let me check the current Salinas Weather……

MONT GRD: Salinas..Monterey?…Salinas my WX is EC 700 OC 7 57/50 280/5 9.97 Tops 1900..Have you got your up yet…..ah no not at this time…What does look like to the Southeast of you?…ah aircraft report that about SVFR 30 …..15..20 minutes ago

about 4 or 5 miles South Clear….and ONE ECHO CHARLIE is on the ground….ONE ECHO CHARLIE is on the Ground !!!!!!! ….. Thank you.. And Can I have the CONTROL ZONE W….You are going to have to talk to North ..this Ground OK….OK


Begging, Forcing…….Invulnerable. Indifference to the Danger….Macho And What else can I ask for…..Impulsive You aren’t making since….Anti-authority

7AE: We probably can make it out to South end of Salinas Right….?……………( NEG…………)


We can do it …..Invulnerable. Don’t care conditions…...Macho If not now what…..Impulsive We can make it out Right….Anti-authority If you say it’s OK……Resignation

MONT GRD: Understand you what to depart Eastbound and then follow the Highway..?


The Authority has spoken…Resignation Lets Go,,,Enough of this Non-Sense

…………….Impulsive Authority is Always Right….Invulnerable I’ll Show you…(Passengers)…..Macho We don’t Break the Rules and we Don’t

allow others to break the Rules.. Macho

7AE: 7AE ah..Roger..

MONT GRD: Roger.. Taxi to Runway 10…you are CLEARED out of the Monterey Control Zone…5 miles East and maintain SPECIAL VFR conditions while you are in the Control Zone…

7AE: Control 7AE …You Say ……..only 900’ altitude in the Salinas Valley and then from there…

MONT GRD: NEGATIVE SIR ..I just reported that Monterey was reporting 700 OC Vis. 7…Salinas last hour was reporting 900 OC with clear skies REPORTED by a pilot up to 45 minutes ago that it was clear 5 Southeast of Salinas.

I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THE WX IS EAST OF MONTEREY BETWEEN MONTEREY AND SALINAS OR IF THE WX SOUTHEAST OF MONTEREY IS STILL VALID……..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Indifference….Macho I’m VFR and going…..Impulsive Tower communications….Anti-authority

7AE: Control this Twin Cessna 7AE……….. I GUESS we are ready to takeoff…….


Call for Take off ..”I guess we are ready”

…… Resignation …….

MONT TWR: Twin Cessna 7AE TURN LEFT……….. TURN LEFT .. YOU ARE HEADED TO HIGH TERRAIN IN THAT DIRECTION …..TURN LEFT AT SUGGESTED HEADING 060……!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


No Where to go, …..nothing I can do.. …… IT’S OVER !!!!!!!!!!

Resignation

The Physiological Aspects of Flying That Are Hazardous.

Dehydration..Little Discussion…….. Fatigue can lead to resignation Legal Drugs can lead to….Anti-authority Panic can lead to impulsiveness… Illegal Drugs can lead…..Macho

““Watch this””…Famous last words No Alcohol 24 hours before flight

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