aemet- sreps · 2021. 7. 25. · aemet-γsreps convection-permitting lam-eps vi simposio nacional...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
AEMET-γSREPS
Convection-permitting LAM-EPS
VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th
-September 2018
Servicios centrales AEMET
AEMET Predictability Group
Alfons Callado, José A. García-Moya (retired), Pau Escribà, Mauri Martínez
David Quintero, Marc Compte, Jesús Rodriguez, David Gil (web), Carlos Santos (consultant)
![Page 2: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
• Who are we ? AEMET predictability group
• What is AEMET-γSREPS ?
20-members non-hydrostatic convection-permitting EPS
• Designing AEMET-γSREPS
Multi-boundary conditions + multi-mesoscale NWP models
• γSREPS in operations EcFlow suite gSREPSoper
• γSREPS verification Subjective and objective
• Current and future γSREPS developments
Canary Islands domain
![Page 3: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Who are we ?
![Page 4: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
• Since 2002 an small core group working on Limited Area (LAM) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) depending on Research Deparment
• Members of HIRLAM-GLAMEPS-HarmonEPS and involved in several projects: EUMETNET SRNWP EPS II, PreFlexMS, COASTEPS, EPS eCOST action, etc., and collaborations on EPSs with IPMA-AEMET, AROME-EPS MétéoFrance, etc.
AEMET-γSREPS Predictability group
José Antonio García-Moya(retired on May 2018)
BCs and experiments
on all aspects of EPS
Alfons Callado γSREPS operational development
and model error: SPPT
Pau EscribàAssimilation
LETKF
Mauri Martínez(CLARITY project)
γSREPS support
and verification
Marc Compte(scholarship)
γSREPS support
Jesús Rodríguez(EUMETNET SRNWPEPSII project)
calibrationDavid Gil (collaboration) web page
David Quintero
machine learning
and γSREPS support
XXXXX XXXXLooking for
a new fighter !!!
![Page 5: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
• Full participation in VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción: 5 presentations
• AEMET-γSREPS in other presentations:• El episodio de Oliva-Gandía del 3-4 noviembre de 1987: récord nacional de precipitación en 24 horas (C. Santos et al.)
• Episodio de cizalladura del 10-9-2017 en el aeropuerto de Barcelona (A. Méndez et al.)
• Coastal trapped disturbances en el litoral catalán: un peligro aeronáutico (S. González et al.)
• Episodio de tiempo severo con elevado impacto en Cataluña del 18 de octubre de 2017 (R. Pascual and G. Cuevas)
AEMET-γSREPS Predictability group
José Antonio García-MoyaSuper-CHAIRMAN
Alfons Callado “AEMET-γSREPS: convection
permitting LAM-EPS”
Pau Escribà“El AEMET-
γSREPS en un
caso de
convección por
convergencias
en el
Mediterráneo”
Mauri Martínez“nowcRadiation –
Software de
nowcasting
para la
predicción
de la radiación
solar”
David Gil “Presentación de la aplicación web AEMET-γSREPS”
David Quintero“Postproceso estadístico
de modelos meteorológicos
con Machine Learning: aplicaciones
al γSREPS y al HARMONIE”
XXXXX XXXXLooking for
a new fighter !!!
![Page 6: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What is
AEMET-γSREPS ?
![Page 7: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Turia 1957-10-14
Flash flood>350mm/d
La Safor 2007--
Cut-off low>450mm/d
CVal 2009-09-27/29
Cut-off low>300mm/d
Cádiz 2009-12-24
Tornado
Algeciras 2012-03-06
Storm > 35 mm/h
Montserrat 2000-06-09
Flash-floods > 200mm
Vista Alegre 1999-09-07
Tornado
Tous 1982-10-20
Flash-floods>1000mm
Cantábrico 2011-05-30
CAP gale (Galerna)
Spain
Severe
Weather
Spain
Renewable
Energies
AEROgenerators
Serra De Burgo (Orense)
Valladolid 2011-05-30
Hailstorm
Fotoelectric
Cenicientos (Madrid)
![Page 8: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
AEMET-γSREPS system
NMMB
WRF
ARW
HARMONIE-ALARO
HARMONIE-AROME
Multi-BCs
Multi-NWP
CMC / GEMJMA / GSMMF / ARPÈGENCEP / GFSECMWF / IFS
We are now updating WRF-ARW from 3.6.0 on sigma levels to 3.9.1.1 on
hybrid !!!
• 20-members non-hydrostatic convection-permitting EPS
• Since April 2016 daily running at 00 and 12 UTC up to 36 hours
currently up to 48 hours !!!
![Page 9: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
•Multi-model
•HARMONIE-AROME
•HARMONIE-ALARO
•WRF-ARW (NCAR)
•NMMB (NCEP)
AEMET-γSREPS
1INITIAL
CONDITIONS
HH+00HH+24 HH+48
XXXX PPKDt
X
Initial conditions and Multi-BCs
•ECMWF – IFS
•NCEP – GFS
•MétéoFrance – ARPÈGE
•CMC – GEM (Canadian)
•JMA - GSM (Japanese)
2BOUNDARYCONDITIONS
3MODELERROR
• Developing a convection-permitting LAM-EPS
• 3 sources of uncertainties
2019LETKF
assimilation
25 members¿ GEM-LAM ?
Initial conditions
![Page 10: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Designing
AEMET-γSREPS
![Page 11: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Horizontal resolution in GRIB files
HARMONIEs
lambert
‘NLON' => '576’,
'NLAT' => '480',
‘EZONE’ => ’11’
'GSIZE' => '2500.',
WRF-ARW
map_proj = ‘lambert',
e_we = 566,
e_sn = 470,
dx = 2500,
dy = 2500,
NMMB
map_proj = 'rotated_llb',
e_we = 568,
e_sn = 472,
dx = 0.022545,
dy = 0.022500,
NMMB bigger area
than HARMONIE to
interpolate to common
Lambert area without
missing values
• Intended to
run each NWP
with the same /
very similar
internal GRID
• Exactly the
same GRIB1
codification
output as
HARMONIE
• Lambert
565x469
![Page 12: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Vertical levels consistence
between models
• AROME
and ALARO
• 65 hybrid
sigma-pressure
layers
• No top
• WRF-ARW:
• 72 sigma levels
hybrid on
3.9.1. version
• Top 40 hPa
• NMMB
• 72 hybrid levels
• Top 40 hPa Consistency AT LOW LEVELS into the
PBL The very close vertical levels
distribution !!!
22
8
![Page 13: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
NWP models’ settings
HARMONIEs WRF-ARW NMMB
AROME physics
ALARO physics
65 Hybrid sigma-
pressure vertical
levels
60 s time step
ARW dynamical core
66 72 sigma (ETA)
hydrostatic-pressure levels up
to 40 hPa [where it is 64
HARMONIE vertical level]
12 s time step
NMM dynamical core
66 72 Hybrid sigma-
pressure up to 40 hPa
5.625 s time step
Lambert Conformal Conic projection: lon -2.5º
/ lat 40.0º centre
565 * 469 grid-points
Rotated lon-lat B-grid:
lon -2.5º / lat 40.0º centre
568 * 472 grid-points
Calling radiation every 15 minutes
8 LBC relaxation points around grid area
Summary of models in γSREPS:
4 NWP MODELS
It has been intended to integrate both NWP models with the closer possible settings in order to
be the comparison the more fairly possible.
XX
![Page 14: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
AEMET-γSREPS
in operations
![Page 15: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
• EcFlow suite management
• 00 and 12 UTC cycle over IBERIA_2.5 domain
DownloadingNCEP / GFS
BCs
20members
EPS
γSREPS at ECMWF Cray XC40
RunningNMMB
+NCEP/GFS BCs
UPPNCEP Unified Post-processor
HARMONIEAROME
+ECMWF/IFS BCs
HARMONIEALARO
+ECMWF/IFS BCs
Finishing !!!
Cray XC40 ECMWF
VeRiFication
SUBJECTIVEMember plots
ProbabilisticWEB
productsgeneration
anddissemination
![Page 16: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
γSREPS
Objective
VERIFICATION
AEMET-γSREPS
is always the better LAM-EPS !!!
Multi-BCs and Multi-NWP is the best EPS approach !!!
![Page 17: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
• AEMET-γSREPS without assimilation
• HARMONIE-LETKF As HarmonEPS, but with LETKF
• HARMONIE-3DVAR-EPS HarmonEPS 3DVAR-NMC + EC-SLAF
• HARMONIE-3DVAR-LAG 8 mbrs det. HARMONIE
AEMET-γSREPS
is always the better LAM-EPS !!!
Multi-BCs and Multi-NWP is the better EPS !!!
![Page 18: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
γSREPS
Subjective
VERIFICATION
Not significant conclusions … based on
only few cases !!!
See Pau Escribà
presentation
for more subjective
verifications cases
![Page 19: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Qualitative verification results
Stratiform precipitation
Convective precipitation
![Page 20: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Maresme
case study:
low predictability
HARMONIE 40HARMONIE 38γSREPS PROB > 5mmγSREPS max AccPcp
AEMET-γSREPS
From ECMWF BCs not thunderstorm is developed !!!
http://meteo.uib.eu/coasteps/
![Page 21: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Current and future
γSREPS
developments
![Page 22: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Foreseeable future work
plan: 2018-2020
γSREPS “scientific” developments:
• Assimilation: LETKF without discarding
3DVAR… [Pau ]
• GNSS+RADAR assimilation [Jana Sánchez]
• 25 members Including the 5th mesoscale
convection-permitting NWP model:
¿Canadian GEM-LAM? [Alfons]
• 15’ stream output for high social-economic
variables’ impact as T2m and UV10m
![Page 23: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Foreseeable future work
plan: 2018-2020
γSREPS “technical” developments:
• γSREPS IBERIA at ECMWF systems:
• Time critical application level 2 [ Pau]
• IBERIAxxm_2.5 bigger domain (~better organized
convection) and up to 72 hours 2020 Bologna
HPCF supercomputer
• γSREPS CANARIAS_2.5 00 and 12 UTC at
AEMET systems (BULL-ATOS):
• Currently under implementation [ Alfons + David Q.]
• ¿ “explotación” future mamagement ? [ Sergio Cotera]
OrographyT2m U10m
![Page 24: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Foreseeable future work
plan: 2018-2020
γSREPS user “products” developments:
• Probabilistic forecast products:
• Forecasters WEB page [David G., see presentation]
− With one click:
– EPSgrams
– Probabilistic vertical profiles
– Probabilistic cross-sections
• PANEL-VIM integration [ ATAP Marcos G.]
• Specific socio-economic impact products:
• AEROgrams ENAIRE [ Mariona Pons & Alejandro Méndez]
− ¿ Wind shear products ?
• Wind/solar renewable energy sector:
− E.g. probabilistic solar GHI + DNI for REE [¿ Mauri ?]
Barcelona airport
Ernest
Werner
![Page 25: AEMET- SREPS · 2021. 7. 25. · AEMET-γSREPS Convection-permitting LAM-EPS VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th-September 2018 Servicios centrales AEMET AEMET Predictability](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022071515/6137c2e30ad5d2067648d514/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Happy AEMET-γSREPSing !!!
[email protected] [email protected]
AEMET-γSREPS will be shortly available for AEMET forecasters !!!
For your case studies, ask for AEMET-γSREPS !!!
VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción 17/19th
-September 2018
Servicios centrales AEMET
AEMET Predictability Group
Alfons Callado, José A. García-Moya (retired), Pau Escribà, Mauri Martínez
David Quintero, Marc Compte, Jesús Rodriguez, David Gil (web), Carlos Santos (consultant)