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1 Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends 郭文義 博士 Wen-Yi Kuo, Ph.D. Senior Director 仁寶電腦 Compal Electronics Inc. [email protected]

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Page 1: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

1

Advanced Mobile Devices- Technology & Market Trends

郭文義博士Wen-Yi Kuo, Ph.D.

Senior Director仁寶電腦 Compal Electronics Inc.

[email protected]

Page 2: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

2

Mobile Device Industry Value Chain

consumer/corporate

Channel

Verticalintegrator

ContentProvider

ODMOpen OSvendor

Chip setvendor

Run-timeEnv. Vendor

Key SW compvendor

EMS

Key Partvendor

operator

Brand(OEM)

Who leads the industry?

Page 3: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

3

SUBSCRIBER SHARE IS HIGHLY CONSOLIDATED IN MOST REGIONSPercent of subscriber share by wireless operators

42

48

47

53

45

55

57

64

25

37

36

34

25

39

31

20

36

14

24

12

16

18

22

16

14

18

47

24

9

1

5

24

26

15•U.S.

•U.K.

•Germany

•France

•Italy

•Spain

•Sweden

•Korea

•Japan

•China

•157

•53

•62

•40

•56

•37

•9

•34

•81

•259

Verizon

•Millions of subscribers, 2003

Cingular AT&T Other

Source: IDC Black book, 2003

T-Mobile Orange O2 Vodafone Other

T-Mobile VodafoneE-plus

Orange SFR Bouygues

TIMWindVodafone

Telefonica Vodafone Amena

Telia Mobitel Tele2 Vodafone

NTT DoCoMo

KTF LG TelecomSK Telecom

KDDI Vodafone

China Mobile China Unicom

Other

Other

Other

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Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

4

Handset Supply as Key to Operator’s Success

• DoCoMo launched FOMA (WCDMA) on Oct 1, 2001.

• FOMA is not flying until good handsets are available in March, 2003

• Subscriber number has crossed 1M in Oct, 2003.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Oct-2001

Dec-2001

Feb-2002

Apr-2002

Jun-2002

Aug-2002

Oct-2002

Dec-2002

Feb-2003

Apr-2003

Jun-2003

Aug-2003

# sub (M)

•Key turning point is due to•good handsets & good coverage

•Expect to grow into 1.3M subs•“Spring has come, look forward to the hot summer.” quoted from DoCoMo GM.

•3 Italy shut off new sub sign-on in Oct-Dec, 03 due to shortage of handsets.

Page 5: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

5

Layers & Functions of a Mobile Device

RF

BB HW Peripherals

ApplicationProcessing HW

DSPFW

RTOS

MMIApplications

SystemKnow-

how

Inter-Operability

Tests, QualityTests

HW

SW

Middleware

Platform Driver

L2/L3 SW L1 SW

Run-timeEnvironment Open OS

Page 6: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

6

Activity heating up as players seek to

form partnerships/•ecosystems that

will create standards

Ecosystem Fight – Mobile Device’s “Nervous System”

Source: McKinsey

IncumbentOEMs

3rd-party application platform vendors.

Operating Systems

Chip Set DesignSilicon Capability

Page 7: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

7

Mobile Device Categories

Source: Gartner; ARC; Giga; McKinsey

Wholesale Price

•$400+

•$250-500

•$150-250

•$150 and less

% of 2002 Shipments (E) Characteristics

Smart-phone– Near-PDA functionality– Large screen, variety of I/O– Open OS, office app. and huge memory– Ability to run 3rd-party app after sale

High-End Feature Phones– Feature rich but without Open OS– Usually with attractive design/form factor– Address more on personal and

entertainment aspects

Mid-Range Feature Phones– Some multimedia applications – Limited software and processing

capabilities (e.g., voice recognition)

Low End Mobile Phone– Primarily for voice, some SMS capabilities– Very limited ability for applications– “Dumb”terminal for mass market

penetration

•Primary users

– Professionals– Affluent

– Affluent

– Young adults– Teens

– Low-volume users (security conscious)

– Teens

•10

•30+

•50+

•Channels

– Direct Sales– VARs/SIs– Carrier Stores– Electronics Stores

– Carrier Stores– Electronics Stores– Mobile Dealers

– Dealers– General Retail– Carrier Stores

– General Retail– Carrier Stores

Page 8: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

8

Category Evolution

1 Network-based content delivered to terminal with limited client software (e.g., WAP browser, basic PIM); example: Ericsson T682 Voice centric, at least 1/8 VGA; examples: Ericsson R380, Symbian Pearl, Orange SPV3 Data centric; typically keyboard/pen & ¼ VGA; examples: Nokia 9110, Symbian Quartz & Crystal, Microsoft Pocket PC Phone Edition

Source: Gartner; McKinsey

– ASP erosion is canceling out ovrerall shipment growth, resulting in overall flat market

– Smartphones and wireless PDAsgrowing to almost half of 2005 sales

•Worldwide mobile device sales to end users•$ Billions

17 21 249

1316

2048

51

5047

46

32

2112 7

5

6Wireless PDAs3

Smart phones/High-end feature phones2

Enhanced phones1

Basic phones

•2001 •2002 •2003 •2004 •2005

104

•Shipments•Millions of units

•402 •440 •480 •507 •546

•90 •91 •92 •91•95

$15-20 billion sold through enterprise channels in 2005

Page 9: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

9

Computer Industry

Mobile Phone

NotebookSubNotebook

WebPad

Feature Phone

Smart Phone

Pocket PC

What devices could fit the market?Converge or Diverge

Wireless/Communications In

dustry

Portable MediaDevice

Consumer Elec. Industry

Digital Camera,Digital camcorder, Media player

Page 10: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

10

Features to Come in Mobile DevicesFeatures to Come in Mobile Devices

• Browsing

Data Access:PIM, Phone/date bookLocal synchRemote synchCorporate data base

Local Comm:IRDA, BT, USBWLAN

Data Storage:RecordingRetrievingMultimedia playbackDRM

Entertainment:Music, Gamming, Java applications,Theme/skin download,Ringtones, Photos, Video clip, streamingPicture mail

Phone call:Video, Voice, Hand free, Push-to-Talk

Messaging:SMS, MMS, E-mailIMPS, Group-castLBS, infotainment

Financial:Micro-paymentAd, E-coupon

Page 11: Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends · Advanced Mobile Devices - Technology & Market Trends ... Shipments (E) Characteristics ... Notebook SubNotebook WebPad

Q3 2001 Compal Confidential

11

Consumer Communication Video Audio Computing

User profile

Usage combo

Short Life Cycle

Value (Price to Performance)

Age/Gender/Group

Industry Design

Durability (ALT)

Safety

Fool Proof

GSM/GPRS/UMTS

CDMA/ED-DO

Multi-band, -tech

RF Performance

Standby/Talk time

SMS/MMS/E-mail

Interoperability

User scenarios

IMPS / Push to Talk

LBS

Multi-media Processing

Image Optimization

MPEG4, H.263, H264

Digital Rights

Storage

Power Management

3D Graphic

Video clips, streaming, msg

Melody

MP3

AAC

ATRAC 3

Stereo/ 3D Audio

HQ Speaker

Acoustic

Surround

Game

Content

Square off in

SONY/Microsoft/

Nintendo/Nokia

JAVA Game

Native Game

3D Graphic

Party-gaming

Local/remote synch

Power Consumption

Intel / Microsoft

Office App.

Corporate database

Vertical integration

Storage

Input method

Display issue

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