advanced mobile devices - technology & market trends · advanced mobile devices - technology...
TRANSCRIPT
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
1
Advanced Mobile Devices- Technology & Market Trends
郭文義博士Wen-Yi Kuo, Ph.D.
Senior Director仁寶電腦 Compal Electronics Inc.
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
2
Mobile Device Industry Value Chain
consumer/corporate
Channel
Verticalintegrator
ContentProvider
ODMOpen OSvendor
Chip setvendor
Run-timeEnv. Vendor
Key SW compvendor
EMS
Key Partvendor
operator
Brand(OEM)
Who leads the industry?
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
3
SUBSCRIBER SHARE IS HIGHLY CONSOLIDATED IN MOST REGIONSPercent of subscriber share by wireless operators
42
48
47
53
45
55
57
64
25
37
36
34
25
39
31
20
36
14
24
12
16
18
22
16
14
18
47
24
9
1
5
24
26
15•U.S.
•U.K.
•Germany
•France
•Italy
•Spain
•Sweden
•Korea
•Japan
•China
•157
•53
•62
•40
•56
•37
•9
•34
•81
•259
Verizon
•Millions of subscribers, 2003
Cingular AT&T Other
Source: IDC Black book, 2003
T-Mobile Orange O2 Vodafone Other
T-Mobile VodafoneE-plus
Orange SFR Bouygues
TIMWindVodafone
Telefonica Vodafone Amena
Telia Mobitel Tele2 Vodafone
NTT DoCoMo
KTF LG TelecomSK Telecom
KDDI Vodafone
China Mobile China Unicom
Other
Other
Other
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
4
Handset Supply as Key to Operator’s Success
• DoCoMo launched FOMA (WCDMA) on Oct 1, 2001.
• FOMA is not flying until good handsets are available in March, 2003
• Subscriber number has crossed 1M in Oct, 2003.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Oct-2001
Dec-2001
Feb-2002
Apr-2002
Jun-2002
Aug-2002
Oct-2002
Dec-2002
Feb-2003
Apr-2003
Jun-2003
Aug-2003
# sub (M)
•Key turning point is due to•good handsets & good coverage
•Expect to grow into 1.3M subs•“Spring has come, look forward to the hot summer.” quoted from DoCoMo GM.
•3 Italy shut off new sub sign-on in Oct-Dec, 03 due to shortage of handsets.
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
5
Layers & Functions of a Mobile Device
RF
BB HW Peripherals
ApplicationProcessing HW
DSPFW
RTOS
MMIApplications
SystemKnow-
how
Inter-Operability
Tests, QualityTests
HW
SW
Middleware
Platform Driver
L2/L3 SW L1 SW
Run-timeEnvironment Open OS
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
6
Activity heating up as players seek to
form partnerships/•ecosystems that
will create standards
Ecosystem Fight – Mobile Device’s “Nervous System”
Source: McKinsey
IncumbentOEMs
3rd-party application platform vendors.
Operating Systems
Chip Set DesignSilicon Capability
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
7
Mobile Device Categories
Source: Gartner; ARC; Giga; McKinsey
Wholesale Price
•$400+
•$250-500
•$150-250
•$150 and less
% of 2002 Shipments (E) Characteristics
Smart-phone– Near-PDA functionality– Large screen, variety of I/O– Open OS, office app. and huge memory– Ability to run 3rd-party app after sale
High-End Feature Phones– Feature rich but without Open OS– Usually with attractive design/form factor– Address more on personal and
entertainment aspects
Mid-Range Feature Phones– Some multimedia applications – Limited software and processing
capabilities (e.g., voice recognition)
Low End Mobile Phone– Primarily for voice, some SMS capabilities– Very limited ability for applications– “Dumb”terminal for mass market
penetration
•Primary users
– Professionals– Affluent
– Affluent
– Young adults– Teens
– Low-volume users (security conscious)
– Teens
•10
•30+
•50+
•Channels
– Direct Sales– VARs/SIs– Carrier Stores– Electronics Stores
– Carrier Stores– Electronics Stores– Mobile Dealers
– Dealers– General Retail– Carrier Stores
– General Retail– Carrier Stores
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
8
Category Evolution
1 Network-based content delivered to terminal with limited client software (e.g., WAP browser, basic PIM); example: Ericsson T682 Voice centric, at least 1/8 VGA; examples: Ericsson R380, Symbian Pearl, Orange SPV3 Data centric; typically keyboard/pen & ¼ VGA; examples: Nokia 9110, Symbian Quartz & Crystal, Microsoft Pocket PC Phone Edition
Source: Gartner; McKinsey
– ASP erosion is canceling out ovrerall shipment growth, resulting in overall flat market
– Smartphones and wireless PDAsgrowing to almost half of 2005 sales
•Worldwide mobile device sales to end users•$ Billions
17 21 249
1316
2048
51
5047
46
32
2112 7
5
6Wireless PDAs3
Smart phones/High-end feature phones2
Enhanced phones1
Basic phones
•2001 •2002 •2003 •2004 •2005
104
•Shipments•Millions of units
•402 •440 •480 •507 •546
•90 •91 •92 •91•95
$15-20 billion sold through enterprise channels in 2005
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
9
Computer Industry
Mobile Phone
NotebookSubNotebook
WebPad
Feature Phone
Smart Phone
Pocket PC
What devices could fit the market?Converge or Diverge
Wireless/Communications In
dustry
Portable MediaDevice
Consumer Elec. Industry
Digital Camera,Digital camcorder, Media player
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
10
Features to Come in Mobile DevicesFeatures to Come in Mobile Devices
• Browsing
Data Access:PIM, Phone/date bookLocal synchRemote synchCorporate data base
Local Comm:IRDA, BT, USBWLAN
Data Storage:RecordingRetrievingMultimedia playbackDRM
Entertainment:Music, Gamming, Java applications,Theme/skin download,Ringtones, Photos, Video clip, streamingPicture mail
Phone call:Video, Voice, Hand free, Push-to-Talk
Messaging:SMS, MMS, E-mailIMPS, Group-castLBS, infotainment
Financial:Micro-paymentAd, E-coupon
Q3 2001 Compal Confidential
11
Consumer Communication Video Audio Computing
User profile
Usage combo
Short Life Cycle
Value (Price to Performance)
Age/Gender/Group
Industry Design
Durability (ALT)
Safety
Fool Proof
GSM/GPRS/UMTS
CDMA/ED-DO
Multi-band, -tech
RF Performance
Standby/Talk time
SMS/MMS/E-mail
Interoperability
User scenarios
IMPS / Push to Talk
LBS
Multi-media Processing
Image Optimization
MPEG4, H.263, H264
Digital Rights
Storage
Power Management
3D Graphic
Video clips, streaming, msg
Melody
MP3
AAC
ATRAC 3
Stereo/ 3D Audio
HQ Speaker
Acoustic
Surround
Game
Content
Square off in
SONY/Microsoft/
Nintendo/Nokia
JAVA Game
Native Game
3D Graphic
Party-gaming
Local/remote synch
Power Consumption
Intel / Microsoft
Office App.
Corporate database
Vertical integration
Storage
Input method
Display issue
Menu for Technology Combo