Veerabhadran Ramanathan Scripps Institution of Oceanography

University of California at San Diego, CA 92037

APCAP-IIASA- MEETING AT TOKYO MARCH 10, 2015

ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUDS PROGRAM ADDRESSING THE NEXUS BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE

CHANGE

T4B: Top 4 billion B3B: Bottom 3 Billion

SPONSORED BY UNEP; FUNDED BY UNEP AND PARTCIPATING NATIONS

ABC: Vision & Action Plan

The first impact assessment report, Nov 2008

Preliminary Assessment Report, Aug 2002

Think Globally Assess Regionally Act Locally Ref for Slogan: C Kennel, 2009

ABCs: Aerosols & ozone and ozone precursors; GHGs

Over 10 Years of Knowledge to Action

Major Milestones: Setting the Maldives and Gosan Super Observatory (Funded by USA,SIDA and Korea) Setting the Pyramid Observatory at Himalayas (Funded by Italy and EC) UAV PLATFORMS REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS: 2002; 2008 UNEP/WMO BLACK CARBON AND OZONE ASSESSMENT (2011) FORMATION OF CLIMATE AND CLEAN AIR COALITION (2012)

V. Ramanathan, H. Rodhe, M. Agrawal , H. Akimoto, M. Auffhammer ,U.K. Chopra, L. Emberson , S.I. Hasnain, M. Iyngararasan , A. Jayaraman , M. Lawrence, T. Nakajima , M. Ruchirawat, A. K. Singh, J.R. Vincent, Y. Zhang

2008 China; Germany; India; Italy; Japan; Kenya; Korea; Maldives; Nepal; S. Africa; Sweden; USA The First Such regional Report

ABCsThreaten Public Health, Water Security and

Food Security of Asia

Back Scattering (Cooling) ABC Regional Hot Spots

Indo-Asian-Pacific Plume European Plume N American Plume

N Atlantic-African-S Indian Ocean Plume

SE Asian-Australian Plume

E Asian-Pacific-N American Plume Latin American Plume

Amazonian Plume

UNEP-ABC 2008 Report; Ramanathan et al, 2008

MEGA CITY ABC HOTSPOTS as of: 2008

Tokyo

Seoul

Mum

bai N

ew D

elhi Shanghai

CAIR

O

Beijing

Kolkatta Tehran

Shenzen Lagos D

haka

Karachi

Bangkok

Category based on satellite derived column amount of particles (defined optically)

UNEP-ABC 2008 Report

75% OF FATALTIES OCCUR IN ASIA Economic Cost of Outdoor Air Pollution: CHINA : $ 1400 Billion (USD) INDIA: $500 Billion (USD) 1 Billion : 109.

7 MILLION DEATHS DUE TO AMBIENT & HOUSEHOLD AIR POLLUTION 4.3 MILLION DEATHS DUE TO HOUSEHOLD EMISSIONS FROM COOKING, HEATING AND LIGHTING

ABC IS ABOUT SAVING LIVES IN THE MILLIONS

November 14 2006 December 21 2001

NASA-MODIS

ATMOSPHERIC SOLAR HEATING: MELTING OF GLACIERS; DISRUPTION OF MONSOON

DIMMING OF SURFACE: DECREASING EVAPORATION; DECREASING MONSOON RAINFALL

DEPOSITION OF BC ON SNOW MELTING OF GLACIERS

>500,000 deaths from indoor Pollution 630000 deaths from outdoor Pollution

5.5 MILLIONS OF TONS OF CROP DAMAGES

INTENSITY OF HURRICANES

One of the major highlights of the ABC program is the establishment of The EV-K2-CNR Pyramid Observatory by the Italian Government and scientists

It is likely the Himalayan Glaciers is one of the Tipping Points of Climate Change and We still Have the Chance to prevent it

Pathway for limiting global warming to 2 C (3.6 F)

Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010

I.Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations below 440ppm (T4B Challenge) II. Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants (T4B and B3B problem) ( contributes 40% of current Global warming): Black Carbon (<2 weeks); Ozone (< 2 months); Methane (<15 years) HFCs & HCFCs (<15 years) 25 to 4000 times more effective than CO2 on 50-100 years scale

Role of CO2 and SLCPs Mitigation in future Warming & Sea Level Rise

SLCPs can reduce near term (2000-2050) warming by as much as 50% SLCPs can reduce end of century sea level rise by about 25% Simultaneous CO2 mitigation is crucial for limiting end of century warming below 20C Source: Ramanathan and Xu.2010 & HU et al, 2013

SLCPs: BC+Methane+ Ozone+HFCs

Chair: D. Shindell Vice Chairs: Ramanathan, Raes, Cifuentes & Oanh

2011

Shindell, D., Ramanathan, V., Raes, F., Cifuentes, L., & Kim Oanh, N. T. (2011). Integrated assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone (pp. 1–285). Nairobi: UNEP and WMO. Retrieved from http://www.unep.org/dewa/Assessments/EcosystemClimateChange/tabid/7002/Default.aspx

Now 30 nations have joined. European Union and World Bank; Many Major NGOs have joined in this Second Front Against Climate Change

Feb 16, 2012

SLCPs Intersect With development issues- B3B Issues

Photo:Ramanathan, 2009

Mukteshwar, Central Himalayas, India

The B3B World Biomass is fuel source for cooking/Heating for about 2.7 Billion Second largest source of Black Carbon; also CO/Methane/VOCs 4.2 Million die each year from air pollution (indoor/outdoor)

Mukteshwar, Himalayas

Photo: Ramanathan

Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Major New Findings by ABC Team

Gustafsson et al, 2012; 2013

Innovative Isotope techniques yield more accurate data on relative role of biomass and fossil fuels for BC concentrations over S. Asia. Provided convinving evidence for the major role of biomass combustion in ABCs. Supported earlier single particle INDOEX findings of Prather Group(2002). Sweden & Maldives (Gustafsson and others)

Providing Clean Cooking and Lighting Technologies & documenting their impacts on Air pollution, Climate Forcing, Health Exposure Indoors and outdoors

PIs: V. Ramanathan, I.H. Rehman and N. Ramanathan

Collaborating Institutions U. Iowa, USA Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, India Duke University, USA Carbonomics, USA Environmental Financial products LLC, USA U. Of Southern California, USA

CORE INSTITUTIONS University of California at San Diego, USA The Energy Resources Institute, Delhi, India Nexleaf Analytics, Los Angeles, USA

University of Nairobi (Kenya) African Center for Technology Studies (Kenya) Appropriate Solar and Wood Energy Network (Kenya) Department of Environment (Bangladesh) Dhaka University (Bangladesh) Alternative Energy Promotion Center (Nepal) National Environment Commission (Bhutan)

Incubator

Have Identified the Technology that reduces BC emissions Kar et al, 2011

Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Major New Findings by ABC Team

Yet another warming pollutant has

Been identified: Brown Carbon from Open Biomass Burning and

tarballs from fossil fuels

Korea-USA Team Chung, et al, PNAS, 2012

Bahadur et al, 2012 Feng et al, 2013

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Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego

Oakland, California, October 18, 2013

California’s BC Decreased drastically Due to mitigation of Diesel emissions

Trends in Co-emitted Cooling Species was negligible

California Air Resource Board Study Ramanathan et al, 2013

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Air Pollution Mitigation does not deter development !

1. UPGRADE FUEL QUALITY 2. TIGHTEN VEHICLE EMISSION

STANDARDS 3. FOSTER DEVELOPMENT IN

NEW ENGINE MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY

4. INCREASE DISTRIBUTION OF HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE

S. USE MICRO GRID WITH ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLE

6. UPGRADE IN-USE TESTING (INSPECTION AND ENFORCEMENT)

7. FLEET MODERNIZATION

8. LAND USE PLANNING, TELECOMMUTING, AND OTHER OPTIONS

9. PROMOTE NON-MOTORIZED TRANSPORT (NMT): WALK AND BICYCLE 10. SHIFT TRANSPORTATION TO OTHER MODES (FROM HIGHER TO LOWER-EMITTING FORMS OF TRANSPORT)

CROSS CUTTING TOOLS 11. BUILD INFORMATION BASIS: MONITORING12. INCREASE COOPERATION BETWEEN THE

CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD (CARB) AND GOVERNMENT OF INDIA (GOI) ON EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAMS

THE ICAMP TWELVE-POINT KNOWLEDGE TO ACTION AGENDA Ramanathan, Sundar, Harnish, Sharma, Seddon, Lloyd et al, 2014

Atmospheric Brown Clouds: New Initiatives by ABC Team

• Regional Model Intercomparison Study Japan(Nakajima), USA (Carmichael) & the

Whole Team

• SUSKAT: Field study in the Eastern Himalayas Germany(Lawrence; Rupakheti); Nepal (ICIMOD)

• LAISI: Proposed NASA-High Altitude Study of Role

of Dust and Black Carbon in Himalayan Glacier Melting

USA(JPL; Scripps); Italy (EC2); Germany; ICIMOD

T4B: The top 4 Billion with seemingly unlimited access

to fossil fuels. What WE should do is Reduce OUR Carbon footprint .

B3B: The bottom 3 billion lack access to fossil fuels.

What they need is Clean

Energy Access

AIR POLLUTION IS ONE OF THE MAJOR ISSUES IN SUSTAINABLE DEVLEOPMENT: HEALTH, FOOD, WATER AND CLEAN ENERGY ACCESS FOR ALL

My Personal Recommendation for the Next Phase of ABC

• ABC INITIATE A COLLABAORATIVE KNOWLEDGE TO ACTION PROGRAM FOR REDUCING BC AND PM IN EAST ASIA •REQUIRES SCIENCE (ABC-UNEP), TECHNOLOGY (CCAC &XXX-UNEP), POLICY (NATIONAL/PROVINCE GOVTS-UNEP) AND GOVERNANCE (LOCAL GOVTS-UNEP)

What is at Stake here?

Sustainability Gains Saving hours of time lost and hard labor to collection of firewood (1.5 ton to 2 tons of wood per year by women and girls) Saving >3 million lives lost to air pollution from residential cooking with solid fuels Saving 100 millions of tons of crops lost to air pollution Mitigating 1 billion ton of CO2 per year from avoided deforestation; Mitigating another 2 billion tons of CO2 equivalent due to black carbon and ozone Diesel Black Carbon : About 2 billion Ton Food Wastage (in B3B World) : 1.6 Billion Tons/Year

Ramanathan, April 2013

Thank you CCAC and to all participants for accepting our invitation and for making this meeting a great success