adding geospatial components to socioeconomic data and ... · formative evaluation 1. farmers...
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Adding geospatial components to socioeconomic data and analysis
International Food Policy Research Institute
Night Lights and Urban Growth: Measuring Urbanization from Outer Space
Zhe Guo, Liangzhi You
International Food Policy Research Institute
Agro-Geoinformatics International Conference
George Mason University, Aug 07-11, 2017
Urban growth is reshaping agricultural value chains
• Drivers of change: Increased commercial flows of agricultural goods, diet transformation, greater role of commercial markets
• “Quiet revolution” in staple-food value chainso Increased investment in technology & modern inputs
o Greater vertical integration with growing scale of midstream & retail
sections
o Rise of mobile phone use by farmers for market information
• Policies should account for growth in post-farmgate segments and urban markets
The impacts of Urban growth is beyond agricultural value chains
▪ However, urban growth can also have other impacts on rural areas, such as on demand for education, rural infrastructure and commercialization, and availability of new technology.
▪ What is Urban? How to measure urban growth quantitatively over time?
oHousehold survey (LSMS survey, Country studies)
oNational Census
oSatellite?
▪ Spatially explicit data showing time series of urban changes are hardly available
Data calibration
▪ 6 different sensors were used from 1992-2013, the onboard sensors were not calibrated so the values need to calibrated to be comparable
▪ We calibrated by assuming little changes in nighttime lights in Sicily, Italy from 1992-2013 (Similar method is used by Elvidge2013 and Zhao 2015)
oForward adjustments: assuming positive growth annual
oBackward adjustments: compensating the abnormal high value in the previous year
oForward and backward average
▪ Gas flare mask (NOAA) and water mask (NASA) are applied
Maps of urban area in China and Kenya
1993
2012
MODIS
BING
Nightlight
Beijing,China LanZhou, China Nairobi,Kenya Eldoret, Kenya
Nightlights in China▪ The increase of
nightlights show strong heterogeneity across space
▪ The increase also show strong temporal variations
▪ The southeast provinces show early “turning point”
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
Nightlight by provinces
Ningxia Huizu Zizhiqu Xinjiang Uygur Zizhiqu Zhejiang Sheng
Guangdong Sheng Jiangsu Sheng Taiwan Sheng
Picture-Based Insurance (PBI): Detecting crop damage from smartphone camera data
Berber Kramer
Research Fellow
Markets, Trade and Institutions Division
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Opportunity: Rise of Smartphones
Source: Global Attitudes Spring 2015 & 2014, PEW Research Center
In 2015, there were 220 million unique smartphone users in India
Formative evaluation
1. Farmers download app and take an initial georeferenced
overview picture of their plot.
2. Every few days, they take a repeat overview picture of their
plot, from the exact same location with the same view frame
(facilitated by the app).
3. Agronomic experts inspect stream of pictures for visible
damage.
4. We are also ground truthing to automate this process.
Capturing repeat pictures…
Capturing repeat pictures…
HarvestPlus c/o IFPRI
1201 Eye St., NW • Washington, DC 20005-3915 USA
Tel: 202-862-5600 • Fax: 202-862-5606
[email protected] • www.HarvestPlus.org
Targeting for impact: Developing tools for high impact-low cost biofortificationinterventions
HarvestPlus – Impact and Strategy Division
Study aim
To develop a global index for countries in Africa, Asia and LAC which prioritizes countries for:
➢ Vitamin A biofortification interventions
Crops: Cassava, Maize, Sweet Potato
➢ Iron biofortification interventions
Crops: Beans, Pearl Millet
➢ Zinc biofortification interventions
Crops: Rice, Wheat
Conditions for H+ priority country
1. Produce the crop
2. Consume much of the crop on a per capita basis
3. Have a high level of micronutrient deficiency
Production
Index
Consumption
Index
Micronutrient
Deficiency
Index
Biofortification
Prioritization
Index
BPI Interactive Tool
▪ Recently launched (January 2015)
▪ bit.ly/HPlusBPI
Sub-national BPI
▪ The aim is to close the geographic gap from a country to a subnational level - extending cross-sectional empirical evidence in consumption, production, and micronutrient deficiency.
▪ …enable us to inform decision on promotion and distribution of HarvestPlus – country programs and other national/international stakeholders.
20
Subnational BPI
ReSAKSS Web-based Data and Knowledge Management Platforms
Mohamed Abd Salam EL VILALY, PhD
WCAO, International Food Policy Research Institute
ReSAKSS Country eAtlases ReSAKSS Website
CAADP Policy Tool
SAKSS interface
ReSAKSS ClimateViewer
Efficient systems that consider network issues and hardware limitation in most
African academic, research, and application institutions
Advanced Data Exploration Systems to
Enhance Country Data and Knowledge Management
ReSAKSS Country eAtlases, V#3
HarvestPlus c/o IFPRI
1201 Eye St., NW • Washington, DC 20005-3915 USA
Tel: 202-862-5600 • Fax: 202-862-5606
[email protected] • www.HarvestPlus.org
Arab Spatial Development and Food Security monitoring Atlas
Tool Structure
A Mapping and charting online tool which maps processed and calculated tabular and spatial data from multiple sources.
Focus on agriculture and food and nutrition security related indicators and SDGs.
Mapping: Wheat yields, MENACharting: Access to improved water source, MENA
Objectives of Arab Spatial
▪ Improve access to quality information
o on food security and related development data
o interactive mapping experience and analytical tools
▪ Support decision and policy making
o for policy makers, analysts, researchers, media and the public
o through a mix of easily accessible information and analytical tools
International Food Policy Research Institute
The European Commission represents the interests of
the European Union by proposing new legislation to
the European Parliament and the Council of the
European Union and ensuring that EU law is correctly
applied by member countries.
Africa South of the Sahara
Food Security Portal
Current Data and Further Needs
28
• Satellite and mobile applications are becoming more practical.
• Advances in data access include land records, soil mapping, and satellite-derived production estimates.
• The region is still restricted in terms of information availability and technology.
• For producers, price and market discovery continues to be difficult.
• For policymakers, identification of opportunities and constraints can be complicated.
Role of Food Security Portal
29
• Provide regional- and country-level information to POs and policy makers.
• Provide a panel control of several early warning tools for farmer groups to be alerted on price and production volatility and be able to prepare and become more resilient to shocks.
• Provide relevant research and lessons learned on food security.
• Enable virtual and actual dialogues through broad network.
• Through further coordination, can provide platform to help coordinate information sharing between POs and evaluate price transmission.
• Influence policy for more effective efforts to increase food security.
Policy network
Policy research networks
associated with AGRODEP in
Africa south of Sahara
Media analysis tools
Covering regional major crops
including maize
Soil profiles
Soil grid map application
collaborated with SoilGrids.org
Agricultural R & D indicators
on institutional, investment,
and capacity trends in
agricultural R&D.
Volatility & Early warning systems
volatility of local prices and of
relevant commodities
Themes and discussion
Thematic topics (food access,
food availability, input markets,
risk and resilience, food
consumption and nutrition)
Crop and Yield mapping
Crop calendar application
collaborated with GeoGlam
initiatives and yield mapping.
Main Features
Arab Food and Nutrition Security Blog An open-source platform that aims to provide evidence-based solutions for achieving a food-secure Arab World free of poverty
Inner Workings
▪Software for data processing
o Excel/Stata (tabular and spatial data)
o ArcGIS (spatial data)
o Tilemill (styling spatial data)
Raw data
Processing of tabular
and spatial data
Data entry
Visual results
Work
Flow
Navigation
Visual Results
← Time series visualization ability
▪ http://bit.ly/1RU6ZGw
Global food security index
Multi-layer mapping →
http://bit.ly/1YroWg9
Crop yields, dams, irrigated area and food security
Visual Results Cont’d: Projected changes in annual rainfall in MENA by 2050
Policy Applications
o Useful data hub for aiding evidence-based policy making
o Analysis and hypothesis testing tool
o Timeline allows for visualizing trends over time
o The ‘Policy Analyzer’ section tracks reported policies taken by governments overtime
oCan be used to visualize several model results and map them out against each other
oTracks country progress regarding SDG indicators
Strengths and Weaknesses
Strengths
o Regional, national and subnational comparisons
o Draws from different data sources; adaptable to map different kinds of data
o Overlapping multiple layers for correlation analysis
o Open source for free dissemination of data
Weakness
o Limited available data – a general hindrance to the region’s development
o Some overlaying and charting limitations
Access to improved water source, governorates
pixelized area
(crop)
Sub-national area
(crop)irrigated_ land
crop_land
suitable_area (crop)
population density
other data: production
systems, ... (crop)
1. The SPAM process
SPAM
PRIOR
irrigated
PRIOR
subsistence
PRIOR
rainfed_high
PRIOR
rainfed_low
42 crops
simultaneously
2. SPAM2005 Crop List and ...1 wheat 14 dry beans 28 sugarcane
2 rice 15 chickpea 29 sugar beet
3 maize 16 cowpea
4 barley 17 pigeon pea 30 cotton
5 pearl millet 18 lentils 31 other fibres
6 finger/small millets 19 other pulses 32 arabica coffee
7 sorghum 33 robusta coffee
8 other cereals 20 soybeans 34 cocoa
21 groundnuts 35 tea
9 potato 22 coconuts 36 tobacco
10 sweet potato 23 oil palm 37 banana
11 yam 24 sunflower 38 plantains
12 cassava 25 rapeseed 39 tropical fruit
13 other roots & tub. 26 sesame seed 40 temperate fruit
27 other oil crops 41 vegetables
42 all the rest
…. continue
3. Statistical Area Coverage – subnational 1
…. continue
and ... Statistical Area Coverage – subnational 2
4. Sample results
Crop Distribution – Maize 2005
pixelized area
(crop)
Sub-national area
(crop)irrigated_ land
crop_land
suitable_area (crop)
population
distribution
other data: production
systems, ... (crop)
2010
2010
2010
GAEZ
V4
2010
5. SPAM 2010
refined methodology
STAY TUNED!