adaptation 090214
TRANSCRIPT
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Adapting to to a Changing Climate
David Schmidt, PE
University of Minnesota
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• Definitions and Terminology• Framework • Examples
Outline
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Changing Agriculture
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Why Change (Adapt)?Profitability
Policy or RegulationOther
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We are Adaptingto Climate
Profitability
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Definition
Adaptation: Adjustment or preparation of natural or human systems to a new or
changing environment which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
(EPA)
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Definition
Risk Management: The process of assessing risk and acting in such a
manner . . . so as to avoid or minimize loss associated with such risk. (Webster’s)
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Resilience Short Term
AdaptationLong Term
Practical Definition
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ParksDrought Resilience
Short Term
ParksDrought Adaptation
Long Term
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Resilience vs AdaptationShort Term vs Long Term
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Climate Impact Categories
Farm Inputs
Animal Production
Farm Logistics
Farm Exports
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Farm Inputs
Short Term Long TermIncrease Feed Storage Capacity
Crop or Pasture InsuranceWater Conservation
Multi-Sourcing
Pasture ImprovementsInstall or modify Irrigation
Feed, Water, Young Stock
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Animal Production
Short Term Long Term
Animal health, growth, and reproduction
Monitoring Heat and HealthHot Weather Feeding Plans
Reproduction PlansInsurance?
Genetics
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LogisticsManure Handling, Transportation, Employees
Short Term Long Term
Backup Power SystemVentilation Maintenance
Animal Handling ProtocolsManure Application and TimingEmergency Response Planning
New Ventilation/Cooling SystemNew Building with Cooling
Expand Manure Storage
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Farm Exports
Short Term Long TermContracting
Ag Policy ChangesInsurance
Farm Diversification
Markets
Photo: StarTribune
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ExamplesChanges due to Climate and Weather
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Rest of the Story
• Lots with shade (24 sq feet per head) had 0.2% death loss
• Lots with no shade averaged 4.8% death loss
• Other contributing factors– Weight of animals– Color of animals– Direction of slope on lots
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Weathering Drought with Cow-Calf Grazing System (Daybreak Ranch, SD)
Five Point Drought Plan• Increase stored and standing
forages – diversification of grass species
• Changed grazing management to build resilience in soils and grasses (moisture and erosion)
• Store more hay• Monitor rain events• Adjust stocking density
Weathering Drought (Agriculture.com, 2013)
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Geothermal Swine Gestation Barn in Western Minnesota
• 650 gestation to wean facility• Very Long Term Planning• Increased pigs per sow• Improved Health• Significant investment
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Beef Herd Genetics Texas
Trends in Farm Genetics based on climate
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Southwest MN Confinement Beef
• Tired of fighting the weather– Snow, cold, rain and mud, heat
waves
• Labor shortage• Moved over 2/3 of animals
inside
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Southwest MN Filtered Barn
Finishing barnPathogen ProtectionClaimed Results for piglets• 10% improvement in ADG• 50% drop in mortality
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How to Decide?
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Benefit-Cost Analysis
Which of these systems is most profitable?
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Benefit-Cost Analysis
Cost of Damage (Benefits)
Cost
to A
void
Dam
age
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Decision Reality
Evaluated their own financialsTalked to farmers in the area to get costs and benefitsLearned from mistakesBuilt a new and improved design
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Goal is Long Term Profitability
Understand Your Climate
Understand Your Farm Vulnerabilities (Data)
Evaluate Your Options Short and Long Term
Decision Reality
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Adaptation Audit
Impacts Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4
Heat Stress Management Cooling System
Diet Genetics
Water Availability
New water source
Water conservation
Diversification of Crops
?
Manure Construct new Storage
Timing of Application
Cover storage ?
Identify and Evaluate Options
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Changing Agriculture
How will agriculture change in the next 100
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Changing Agriculture
??Agriculture in
2050 or 2100?
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For More InformationCourse Reading and Project Website www.animalagclimatechange.org
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Livestock and PoultryEnvironmental Learning Center
Project Support
This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
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www.animalagclimatechange.org
National Lead: University of Nebraska
Regional Partners: University of Georgia; Cornell University; University of Minnesota; Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, and Washington State University.
Project Partners
Our Mission Animal agriculture in a changing climate fosters animal productionpractices that are: environmentally sound and economically viable,and that create resiliency for animal producers and their partners.