AD and AS equilibrium

• Equilibrium in both markets

P

Y

ADAS

Y Potential

Real GDP Turkey

1998Q1

1998Q3

1999Q1

1999Q3

2000Q1

2000Q3

2001Q1

2001Q3

2002Q1

2002Q3

2003Q1

2003Q3

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q30.00

5000000.00

10000000.00

15000000.00

20000000.00

25000000.00

30000000.00

35000000.00

Real GDP (100=1998)

Real GDP (100=1998)

Real GDP in Turkey

1998Q1

1998Q3

1999Q1

1999Q3

2000Q1

2000Q3

2001Q1

2001Q3

2002Q1

2002Q3

2003Q1

2003Q3

2004Q1

2004Q3

2005Q1

2005Q3

2006Q1

2006Q3

2007Q1

2007Q3

2008Q1

2008Q3

2009Q1

2009Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q1

2011Q3

2012Q1

2012Q30.00

5000000.00

10000000.00

15000000.00

20000000.00

25000000.00

30000000.00

35000000.00

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

Series1 Real GDP (100=1998)

Growth rate of Real GDP in Turkey

1998Q2

1998Q4

1999Q2

1999Q4

2000Q2

2000Q4

2001Q2

2001Q4

2002Q2

2002Q4

2003Q2

2003Q4

2004Q2

2004Q4

2005Q2

2005Q4

2006Q2

2006Q4

2007Q2

2007Q4

2008Q2

2008Q4

2009Q2

2009Q4

2010Q2

2010Q4

2011Q2

2011Q4

2012Q2

2012Q4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Series1

Annual growth rate of real GDP19

99

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

growth rate of real GDP

World economic crisis and our exports and imports

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

İHRACAT (FOB)İTHALAT (CIF)

Fiscal Policy

1. Discretionary fiscal policy

2. Automatic stabilizers

Government Budget

• Maintaining a healty and sustainable government budget

• Primary Budget

• Consolidated Budget

Gov’t Budget= Taxes- Gov’t Expenditure- Transfer Payments

Gov’t Budget= Taxes- Gov’t Expenditure- Transfer Payments –interest Payments

Debt to GDP

ARGENTIN

A

AUSTRIA

BRAZILCHILE

COLOMBIA

DENMARK

EURO AREA

FRANCE

GREECE

INDIAIRAN

IRELAND

ITALY

MALAYS

IA

NETHER

LANDS

NORWAY

PHILIPPINES

PORTUGAL

SAUDI A

RABIA

SOUTH

AFRICA

SPAIN

SWITZ

ERLA

ND

THAILA

ND

UNITED ARAB EM

IRATES

UNITED ST

ATES

0

50

100

150

200

250

Debt to GDP

LAST

Country Risk Premium

Argentina

Brazil

Cypru

s

German

y

Greece

Irelan

dIta

lyJap

an

Mexico

Spain

Turke

y

United St

ates o

f Ameri

ca0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

Country Risk Premium

Country Risk Premium

US Money growth rate