actual projection - department of education and statistics/enrollment... · enrollment projections...

Enrollment Projections

Prepared by the Pennsylvania Department of Education

(717) 787-2644

Albert Gallatin Area SD 101260303

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 282 244 221 257 263 248 274 267 282 284 280 268 265 3435

2015 - 2016 276 271 240 226 267 268 250 273 275 285 284 272 271 3458

2016 - 2017 277 238 261 243 227 270 275 247 275 279 287 270 264 3413

2017 - 2018 248 247 238 255 233 227 261 276 240 276 271 271 255 3298

2018 - 2019 277 222 248 242 260 239 226 264 283 250 282 250 270 3313

Projection

2019 - 2020 256 243 219 250 243 264 239 226 266 288 250 260 245 3249

2020 - 2021 268 229 240 221 251 246 264 239 228 271 288 231 255 3231

2021 - 2022 248 241 226 242 222 255 246 264 241 232 271 266 227 3181

2022 - 2023 235 223 238 228 243 225 255 246 266 245 232 250 261 3147

2023 - 2024 230 211 220 240 229 246 225 255 248 271 245 214 245 3079

2024 - 2025 225 206 208 222 241 232 246 225 257 252 271 226 210 3021

2025 - 2026 221 202 203 210 223 244 232 246 227 262 252 250 222 2994

2026 - 2027 217 199 200 204 211 226 244 232 248 231 262 232 245 2951

2027 - 2028 213 195 197 201 205 214 226 244 234 252 231 242 228 2882

2028 - 2029 209 191 193 198 202 208 214 226 246 238 252 213 237 2827

Albert Gallatin Area SD

101260303

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Department of Education, Office of Data Quality

Various Grade Groupings of the Enrollment Projections

YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12

Notes: 1. Excludes students in full-time out-of-district special education, comprehensive AVTSs, charter schools, state-owned schools, consortium-operated alternative high schools, and juvenile correctional institutions. 2. Enrollment projections beyond five years are subject to errors in the lower grades resulting from inconsistencies between actual and projected live births and should be reviewed closely. 3. Four year old kindergarten students, if any, added to K enrollments. 4. Elementary and secondary ungraded students were distributed among the grades. Therefore, enrollments by grade may differ from those reported by the local education agencies.Sources: 1. Pennsylvania Information Management System (PIMS) 2. Resident Live Birth file supplied by the Division of Health Statistics, Pennsylvania Department of Health. The Department of Health specifically disclaims responsibility for any analyses, interpretations or conclusions.

1249 1488 1714 1978 2261 2511 3313 1012 773 547 1023 797 1599 1335 1052 8022018 - 2019

1130 1376 1601 1856 2104 2375 3079 974 728 503 999 774 1478 1223 975 7042023 - 2024

993 1201 1415 1641 1887 2125 2827 894 686 472 924 710 1412 1186 940 7022028 - 2029

11 to 1210 to 119 to 108 to 97 to 86 to 75 to 64 to 53 to 42 to 31 to 2Birth to 1Birth to K

0.980630.947221.000021.017621.008580.999870.999111.0141.005451.007240.987690.966531.07895

0.996310.922511.021741.041671.025361.011490.995591.025751.019611.016811.004050.867191.0613

0.944440.944250.971331.003640.971661.003640.9666710.958850.9770111.069260.96875

0.970590.95071.007021.014551.007330.9881.026121.011241.004421.01250.96310.937011.19913

1.011190.9714311.010641.029960.996351.008061.019011.038911.022620.983610.992671.08661

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate

Retention Rate by Grade by Year

1.03889 0.93229 0.98769 1.00724 1.00545 1.014 0.99911 0.99987 1.00858 1.01762 1.00002 0.92251 0.98063

273 254 231 256 261 246 258 239 226 221 217 213 209 205 201

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

| - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Projected Births - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - |

Retention Rate Used

Albert Gallatin Area SD

101260303





(717) 787-2644

Brownsville Area SD 101260803

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 140 141 130 97 122 127 131 133 129 162 114 118 116 1660

2015 - 2016 126 135 123 121 93 127 130 132 132 142 130 90 118 1599

2016 - 2017 117 120 128 119 117 102 133 139 119 134 125 114 91 1558

2017 - 2018 136 108 121 125 116 119 107 145 130 131 119 111 110 1578

2018 - 2019 143 124 105 112 137 119 124 109 139 142 111 110 104 1579

Projection

2019 - 2020 136 132 118 100 123 143 124 130 103 153 121 103 108 1594

2020 - 2021 134 126 125 112 110 129 150 130 123 113 131 112 101 1596

2021 - 2022 122 124 120 119 123 115 135 157 123 135 97 121 110 1601

2022 - 2023 115 114 118 114 130 129 120 141 149 135 115 90 118 1588

2023 - 2024 113 107 108 112 125 136 135 126 134 164 115 106 88 1569

2024 - 2025 110 104 102 103 123 131 142 141 119 147 140 106 104 1572

2025 - 2026 108 102 99 97 113 129 137 149 134 131 126 129 104 1558

2026 - 2027 106 100 97 94 106 118 135 143 141 147 112 116 126 1541

2027 - 2028 105 99 95 92 103 111 123 141 135 155 126 104 113 1502

2028 - 2029 103 97 94 90 101 108 116 129 134 148 132 116 102 1470

Brownsville Area SD

101260803




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


621 740 864 973 1112 1254 1579 491 372 248 514 390 715 606 467 3252018 - 2019

565 701 836 962 1096 1260 1569 531 395 260 559 424 733 607 473 3092023 - 2024

485 593 709 838 972 1120 1470 487 379 263 527 411 761 632 498 3502028 - 2029


0.978240.869690.854531.077270.946971.046451.040481.045180.999120.950110.950260.869520.89397

0.936940.924370.847331.092310.958621.018691.042021.025861.0960.925620.972220.885710.89937

0.964910.8880.888061.100840.935251.090231.049021.017090.974790.976561.008330.760560.97143

1.011110.876920.880281.015150.901521.069231.047241.096770.966940.967480.948150.839160.82394

10.789470.802471.100780.992481.007631.023621.040980.958760.930770.872340.992650.88112

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.89397 0.82848 0.95026 0.95011 1.096 1.04518 1.04609 1.04645 0.94697 1.09797 0.85453 0.92437 0.97824

136 143 142 140 159 152 150 137 129 126 123 121 119 117 115

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Brownsville Area SD

101260803





(717) 787-2644

Connellsville Area SD 101261302

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 535 151 341 343 325 341 361 384 366 390 356 227 201 4321

2015 - 2016 351 317 332 339 345 324 328 380 371 367 357 225 214 4250

2016 - 2017 319 340 306 331 353 333 338 335 374 361 355 199 223 4167

2017 - 2018 290 303 325 292 329 345 333 351 335 385 360 275 231 4154

2018 - 2019 330 293 303 313 287 336 338 333 368 339 347 264 250 4101

Projection

2019 - 2020 353 306 285 296 315 284 335 348 349 370 320 239 250 4050

2020 - 2021 343 337 298 278 298 312 283 344 365 350 350 220 226 4004

2021 - 2022 331 328 328 291 280 295 311 291 361 367 331 241 208 3963

2022 - 2023 299 316 319 320 293 277 294 320 305 363 347 228 228 3909

2023 - 2024 293 285 308 312 322 290 276 302 335 306 343 239 216 3827

2024 - 2025 287 279 278 301 314 319 289 284 317 336 289 236 226 3755

2025 - 2026 282 274 272 272 303 311 318 297 298 318 318 199 224 3686

2026 - 2027 276 269 267 266 274 300 310 327 311 299 301 219 189 3608

2027 - 2028 270 263 262 261 268 271 299 319 343 312 283 207 208 3566

2028 - 2029 265 258 256 256 263 265 270 307 334 344 295 195 196 3504

Connellsville Area SD

101261302




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


1526 1862 2200 2533 2901 3240 4101 1375 1039 701 1378 1040 1901 1568 1200 8612018 - 2019

1520 1810 2086 2388 2723 3029 3827 1203 913 637 1219 943 1741 1439 1104 7982023 - 2024

1298 1563 1833 2140 2474 2818 3504 1176 911 641 1255 985 1671 1364 1030 6862028 - 2029


1.000930.674360.94531.004280.99971.028110.99620.990191.005990.977111.279960.892730.93586

0.909090.733330.90131.011941.0484310.979711.021280.982880.9630810.901540.9621

1.16080.774650.997231.0294111.0384610.977340.993960.954250.955880.868190.89231

0.991110.557420.96730.973050.984211.021341.043210.965221.04130.996990.96530.944440.91404

0.942730.632020.915381.002730.966151.052630.961880.996921.005830.994132.198680.856760.975

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.93586 0.89273 0.97373 0.97711 1.00599 0.99019 0.9962 1.02811 1.04843 1.00428 0.9453 0.68847 0.94764

370 360 349 325 343 377 367 354 319 313 307 301 295 289 283

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Connellsville Area SD

101261302





(717) 787-2644

Frazier SD 101262903

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 112 101 73 90 84 89 103 93 101 97 89 80 84 1196

2015 - 2016 88 87 98 75 91 81 93 105 98 103 87 79 82 1167

2016 - 2017 77 81 90 100 75 85 79 93 108 98 95 81 83 1145

2017 - 2018 82 80 78 93 100 77 84 75 90 103 94 92 78 1126

2018 - 2019 74 86 80 77 97 102 76 83 71 90 107 90 89 1122

Projection

2019 - 2020 78 81 85 81 78 96 102 75 79 71 93 100 90 1109

2020 - 2021 73 82 80 86 82 77 96 101 71 78 74 87 100 1087

2021 - 2022 85 77 81 81 87 81 77 95 96 71 81 69 87 1068

2022 - 2023 65 89 76 82 82 86 81 76 90 95 74 76 69 1041

2023 - 2024 64 69 88 77 83 81 86 80 72 89 99 69 76 1033

2024 - 2025 63 68 68 90 78 82 81 85 76 72 92 93 69 1017

2025 - 2026 62 67 67 69 91 77 82 80 80 75 75 86 93 1004

2026 - 2027 61 65 66 68 70 90 77 81 76 79 78 70 86 967

2027 - 2028 59 64 64 67 69 69 90 76 77 75 82 73 70 935

2028 - 2029 58 63 63 65 68 68 69 89 72 76 78 77 73 919

Frazier SD

101262903




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


414 516 592 675 746 836 1122 332 230 154 320 244 530 447 376 2862018 - 2019

381 462 548 628 700 789 1033 319 238 152 327 241 485 405 333 2442023 - 2024

317 385 454 543 615 691 919 298 230 161 306 237 465 376 304 2282028 - 2029


1.00150.936140.954310.993380.999190.989220.998880.986251.013531.017080.991941.234741.17371

0.967390.957451.0388310.946670.98810.987011.021.043010.9871811.194441.10448

0.962960.968420.959180.95370.967740.949370.988241.0266711.033330.962961.311481.13889

1.050630.931030.9223311.0285710.975310.9340711.020411.034481.094591.2623

1.0250.887640.896911.01981.053761.019421.044940.964291.011111.02740.97031.338461.18919

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.14419 1.20917 0.99194 1.01708 1.01353 0.98625 0.99888 0.98922 0.94667 0.99338 1.03883 0.93614 1.0015

65 74 61 72 67 68 64 74 57 56 55 54 53 52 51

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Frazier SD

101262903





(717) 787-2644

Laurel Highlands SD 101264003

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 209 217 256 248 245 218 242 243 282 253 246 223 267 3149

2015 - 2016 209 210 220 252 251 241 213 248 239 279 264 215 211 3052

2016 - 2017 243 194 223 223 257 240 243 217 235 251 259 229 217 3031

2017 - 2018 229 236 196 225 213 247 236 248 218 248 226 235 216 2973

2018 - 2019 233 213 222 200 217 220 244 239 253 226 223 208 230 2928

Projection

2019 - 2020 222 244 214 224 198 213 218 249 236 261 206 199 202 2886

2020 - 2021 224 212 246 215 221 195 211 222 246 244 237 184 193 2850

2021 - 2022 238 214 213 248 212 217 193 215 220 254 222 211 178 2835

2022 - 2023 229 228 215 214 245 208 215 197 213 227 231 198 205 2825

2023 - 2024 225 220 230 216 211 241 206 219 195 220 206 206 192 2787

2024 - 2025 221 216 221 232 213 208 238 210 217 201 200 184 200 2761

2025 - 2026 216 211 217 223 229 209 206 243 208 224 183 178 178 2725

2026 - 2027 212 207 212 218 220 225 207 210 240 215 204 163 173 2706

2027 - 2028 208 203 208 213 215 216 223 211 208 248 196 182 158 2689

2028 - 2029 203 199 204 209 210 211 214 227 209 215 226 175 176 2678

Laurel Highlands SD

101264003




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


1085 1305 1549 1788 2041 2267 2928 956 736 492 962 718 1379 1140 887 6612018 - 2019

1102 1343 1549 1768 1963 2183 2787 861 620 414 840 634 1238 1019 824 6042023 - 2024

1025 1236 1450 1677 1886 2101 2678 861 650 436 865 651 1228 1001 792 5772028 - 2029


0.969360.892270.942851.03290.988971.019220.989140.983450.987881.006851.006681.066941.09237

0.978720.920350.899191.03671.020161.012710.987851.032860.964441.020410.940681.024041

0.943230.907340.90041.055321.004611.020580.983330.961090.955161.008971.010311.129191.10096

1.00930.867420.928321.050210.947581.018781.00830.956181.019841.013641.06191.026461.16268

0.946190.873981.043480.989360.983541.024790.977060.983671.01210.984381.013821.088081.10582

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.09237 1.04619 1.00668 1.00685 0.98788 0.98345 0.98914 1.01922 0.98897 1.0329 0.9093 0.89227 0.96936

193 189 209 208 233 203 205 218 210 206 202 198 194 190 186

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Laurel Highlands SD

101264003





(717) 787-2644

Uniontown Area SD 101268003

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 242 228 200 197 234 232 234 223 216 257 213 182 194 2852

2015 - 2016 224 250 211 200 201 217 228 221 222 247 210 186 192 2809

2016 - 2017 234 220 233 209 199 195 208 230 218 237 225 187 190 2785

2017 - 2018 236 231 205 233 206 211 196 220 227 237 189 184 193 2768

2018 - 2019 209 224 225 207 230 197 207 193 212 254 194 178 191 2721

Projection

2019 - 2020 219 243 211 225 205 225 193 207 190 234 212 171 185 2720

2020 - 2021 256 226 229 211 223 201 221 193 204 210 196 187 177 2734

2021 - 2022 193 264 213 229 209 218 197 221 190 225 176 173 194 2702

2022 - 2023 226 199 248 213 227 205 214 197 217 210 188 155 179 2678

2023 - 2024 221 233 187 248 211 222 201 214 194 240 176 166 161 2674

2024 - 2025 216 228 219 187 245 206 218 201 210 214 201 155 172 2672

2025 - 2026 212 223 215 219 185 240 202 218 198 232 179 177 161 2661

2026 - 2027 208 219 210 215 217 181 236 202 214 219 194 158 183 2656

2027 - 2028 204 215 206 210 213 212 178 236 199 236 183 171 164 2627

2028 - 2029 200 210 202 206 208 208 208 178 232 220 197 161 177 2607

Uniontown Area SD

101268003




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


1095 1292 1499 1692 1904 2158 2721 809 612 405 866 659 1222 1029 817 5632018 - 2019

1100 1322 1523 1737 1931 2171 2674 831 609 408 849 648 1151 937 743 5032023 - 2024

1026 1234 1442 1620 1852 2072 2607 826 618 410 838 630 1165 987 755 5352028 - 2029


1.036640.880820.836021.10430.983130.99890.981860.978530.997021.000070.940820.822090.79706

1.038040.94180.818571.118940.963640.984690.981040.956310.987121.009760.974030.811590.70847

1.032090.817780.797471.087160.986961.057691.005131.06030.9856510.931820.759870.85507

1.021510.890480.910931.067570.986431.008770.958530.970150.9950.990520.9320.839690.76974

1.054950.873240.817121.143520.995520.944440.982760.927351.020310.925440.877190.85496

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.79706 0.82209 0.94082 1.00007 0.98926 0.97853 0.98186 0.9989 0.98313 1.1043 0.83602 0.88082 1.03664

285 262 304 276 295 275 321 242 283 277 271 266 261 256 251

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Uniontown Area SD

101268003





(717) 787-2644

Carmichaels Area SD 101301303

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 77 81 77 81 89 79 92 102 70 78 81 94 68 1069

2015 - 2016 89 69 78 78 76 84 77 92 100 78 69 79 88 1057

2016 - 2017 84 93 75 78 75 74 86 72 91 94 76 66 86 1050

2017 - 2018 87 86 91 79 74 76 75 85 70 95 97 69 76 1060

2018 - 2019 87 75 82 91 78 71 78 71 84 73 99 94 66 1049

Projection

2019 - 2020 106 92 72 83 87 76 72 75 70 90 74 94 97 1088

2020 - 2021 112 100 89 73 80 85 77 70 74 75 91 70 97 1093

2021 - 2022 93 106 96 90 70 78 86 74 69 79 76 87 72 1076

2022 - 2023 103 88 102 98 86 68 79 83 73 74 80 72 90 1096

2023 - 2024 100 97 85 104 94 84 69 76 82 78 75 76 74 1094

2024 - 2025 98 95 94 86 100 91 85 67 75 87 79 71 79 1107

2025 - 2026 96 92 92 96 82 97 92 82 66 80 88 75 73 1111

2026 - 2027 93 90 89 94 92 80 98 89 81 70 81 84 77 1118

2027 - 2028 91 88 87 90 90 89 81 95 87 86 71 77 87 1119

2028 - 2029 89 86 85 88 86 88 90 78 93 93 87 68 80 1111

Carmichaels Area SD

101301303




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


413 484 562 633 717 790 1049 304 233 155 306 228 487 416 332 2592018 - 2019

480 564 633 709 791 869 1094 311 227 158 305 236 461 385 303 2252023 - 2024

434 522 612 690 783 876 1111 349 261 171 354 264 499 421 328 2352028 - 2029


1.03320.95220.983251.035270.98250.967531.009580.972570.958971.016580.995481.01481.10777

0.956520.969071.042111.042860.988240.946671.026320.959460.9873410.953491.071431.03571

1.151520.907891.031911.043960.972220.988371.013511.013330.948721.053330.978490.955561.24286

1.088610.956520.974360.940.989130.935061.023810.973680.9615411.086961.273970.93333

0.936170.975310.884621.114290.9803910.974680.943820.938271.012990.962960.758241.21918

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.16592 1.10032 0.96498 1.01658 0.95897 0.97257 1.00958 0.96753 0.9825 1.06703 1.01613 0.9522 1.0332

91 73 90 70 84 91 96 80 88 86 84 82 80 78 76

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Carmichaels Area SD

101301303





(717) 787-2644

Central Greene SD 101301403

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 142 152 146 149 140 137 145 142 138 131 133 158 117 1830

2015 - 2016 123 132 149 145 139 140 146 139 134 146 133 127 150 1803

2016 - 2017 128 124 126 142 133 141 134 147 139 146 148 134 125 1767

2017 - 2018 109 126 127 127 134 135 141 136 146 146 143 136 124 1730

2018 - 2019 126 107 121 123 124 137 130 131 133 138 142 132 123 1667

Projection

2019 - 2020 123 115 105 119 116 127 137 127 128 138 134 135 124 1628

2020 - 2021 130 113 113 103 112 119 127 134 124 133 134 127 127 1596

2021 - 2022 124 119 111 111 97 115 119 124 131 128 129 127 119 1554

2022 - 2023 124 114 117 109 105 99 115 116 121 136 124 123 119 1522

2023 - 2024 122 114 112 115 103 107 99 112 114 125 132 118 116 1489

2024 - 2025 120 112 112 110 108 105 107 97 110 118 122 126 111 1458

2025 - 2026 117 110 110 110 104 110 105 105 95 114 115 116 119 1430

2026 - 2027 115 108 108 108 104 106 110 103 103 98 111 109 109 1392

2027 - 2028 112 106 106 106 102 106 106 108 101 107 95 106 103 1364

2028 - 2029 110 103 104 104 100 104 106 104 106 105 104 90 100 1340

Central Greene SD

101301403




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


601 738 868 999 1132 1270 1667 531 394 264 532 402 799 668 535 3972018 - 2019

566 673 772 884 998 1123 1489 432 325 226 450 351 717 605 491 3662023 - 2024

521 625 731 835 941 1046 1340 420 316 210 421 315 609 505 399 2942028 - 2029


0.940850.95110.995261.035770.97870.977370.996451.012950.942540.980650.979830.802240.79758

0.904410.923080.97260.945210.977940.929080.962961.022390.976380.96850.960320.732880.80255

0.925370.918920.979451.050360.99321.0149311.015040.943661.007941.024190.797470.74658

0.984251.007521.01371.0895511.006850.957141.014390.917240.953020.954550.837840.81013

0.949370.954891.015271.057970.943660.958621.0656910.932890.993150.980260.840760.83108

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.79758 0.73288 0.97983 0.98065 0.94254 1.02239 0.99645 0.97737 0.9787 1.03577 0.9726 0.9511 0.94085

157 148 158 146 157 154 163 155 156 153 150 147 144 141 138

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Central Greene SD

101301403





(717) 787-2644

Jefferson-Morgan SD 101303503

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 53 57 50 55 60 59 57 57 63 64 59 76 60 770

2015 - 2016 65 55 59 48 57 59 57 55 62 61 59 59 68 764

2016 - 2017 55 64 61 62 53 59 53 55 59 60 53 58 57 749

2017 - 2018 60 55 66 60 66 55 57 54 58 52 56 55 56 750

2018 - 2019 46 61 51 65 57 59 50 58 54 59 48 49 52 709

Projection

2019 - 2020 68 53 63 51 68 56 55 50 58 52 54 47 46 721

2020 - 2021 48 69 54 63 53 67 52 55 50 56 47 53 44 711

2021 - 2022 62 49 71 54 65 52 63 52 55 48 51 46 50 718

2022 - 2023 59 64 50 71 56 64 49 62 52 53 44 50 43 717

2023 - 2024 60 60 66 50 74 55 60 49 62 50 48 43 47 724

2024 - 2025 61 61 62 66 52 73 51 59 49 59 46 47 41 727

2025 - 2026 62 62 63 62 69 51 68 51 59 47 54 45 44 737

2026 - 2027 63 64 64 63 64 68 48 67 51 57 43 53 42 747

2027 - 2028 64 65 66 64 65 63 64 48 67 49 52 42 50 759

2028 - 2029 66 66 67 66 66 64 59 63 48 64 45 51 40 765

Jefferson-Morgan SD

101303503




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


280 339 389 447 501 560 709 221 162 112 221 171 320 262 208 1492018 - 2019

310 365 425 474 536 586 724 226 171 111 221 161 299 250 188 1382023 - 2024

331 395 454 517 565 629 765 234 170 111 234 175 311 248 200 1362028 - 2029


0.942950.973950.911780.958651.053750.991560.93490.987521.038760.994831.025681.184591.1693

0.945450.8750.923081.0172411.017540.909090.893940.950.984850.927271.452381.02222

0.965521.037740.933330.881361.054551.018870.96611.037741.064520.983611.0312511.42857

0.96610.983050.868850.967741.072730.964910.898311.035091.104171.050851.109091.207551

0.8947410.921880.968251.087720.964910.96610.983331.036360.961.035091.078431.22642

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.15026 1.17694 1.02568 0.99483 1.03876 0.98752 0.9349 0.99156 1 0.95865 0.91178 0.97395 0.94295

51 53 55 42 45 59 42 54 51 52 53 54 55 56 57

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Jefferson-Morgan SD

101303503





(717) 787-2644

Southeastern Greene SD 101306503

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 34 49 44 50 41 40 49 35 50 63 64 43 30 592

2015 - 2016 41 37 53 47 50 44 46 54 42 60 52 61 44 631

2016 - 2017 50 40 37 55 49 49 43 44 49 34 54 52 56 612

2017 - 2018 47 46 42 40 56 45 50 45 46 53 35 47 49 601

2018 - 2019 42 39 48 36 40 53 44 48 43 47 47 32 48 567

Projection

2019 - 2020 24 55 41 49 37 38 53 45 47 42 41 44 31 547

2020 - 2021 41 31 57 41 50 35 38 54 44 46 37 38 43 555

2021 - 2022 35 53 32 58 42 47 35 39 52 43 40 35 37 548

2022 - 2023 28 46 55 32 59 40 47 36 38 50 37 37 34 539

2023 - 2024 27 36 48 56 32 56 40 48 35 37 44 35 36 530

2024 - 2025 26 35 38 49 57 30 56 41 47 34 32 41 34 520

2025 - 2026 26 34 37 38 50 54 30 57 40 46 30 30 40 512

2026 - 2027 25 33 35 37 39 47 54 30 55 39 40 28 29 491

2027 - 2028 24 32 34 35 38 37 47 55 29 53 34 37 27 482

2028 - 2029 23 31 33 34 36 36 37 48 53 28 46 32 36 473

Southeastern Greene SD

101306503




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


205 258 302 350 393 440 567 188 135 91 182 138 265 217 174 1272018 - 2019

199 255 295 343 378 415 530 179 123 83 160 120 235 187 152 1152023 - 2024

157 193 230 278 331 359 473 174 138 101 166 129 243 195 142 1142028 - 2029


0.976220.934450.91041.028221.02711.016271.031360.979491.015181.011041.043780.9811.02957

1.021280.914290.886791.021740.955560.960.977780.9464310.857141.043480.906980.75

0.942310.870371.029411.081631.045451.046511.020410.918371.018181.081081.051.045451.09302

0.9180310.90.809520.907410.956520.977270.981.042551.0377411.111111.13636

1.023260.953130.82541.21.21.102041.151.0731711.068181.081630.860471.13889

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.75 0.981 1.04378 1.01104 1.01518 0.94827 0.99182 1.01627 0.96947 0.97097 0.87073 0.93445 0.97622

43 36 44 43 56 32 54 47 37 36 35 34 33 32 31

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Southeastern Greene SD

101306503





(717) 787-2644

West Greene SD 101308503

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 46 50 65 55 50 47 57 51 67 49 54 52 59 702

2015 - 2016 43 47 54 53 54 50 50 53 48 59 51 44 50 656

2016 - 2017 54 49 48 55 55 51 48 51 54 48 61 35 44 653

2017 - 2018 56 50 45 49 55 54 56 53 51 61 42 54 40 666

2018 - 2019 36 51 52 45 49 55 54 55 54 50 50 40 58 649

Projection

2019 - 2020 45 39 53 53 45 48 57 54 55 51 45 44 43 632

2020 - 2021 39 48 41 54 53 44 49 58 54 52 46 40 47 625

2021 - 2022 43 42 50 42 54 52 45 49 58 51 47 41 43 617

2022 - 2023 43 46 44 51 42 53 54 45 49 55 46 42 44 614

2023 - 2024 44 46 48 45 51 41 55 54 45 47 50 41 45 612

2024 - 2025 44 47 48 49 45 50 42 55 54 43 43 44 44 608

2025 - 2026 45 48 49 49 49 44 52 42 55 51 39 38 47 608

2026 - 2027 46 48 50 50 49 48 45 52 42 52 46 34 41 603

2027 - 2028 47 49 50 51 50 48 49 45 52 40 47 41 36 605

2028 - 2029 48 50 51 51 51 49 49 49 45 50 36 42 44 615

West Greene SD

101308503




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


233 288 342 397 451 501 649 218 163 109 213 159 307 252 198 1482018 - 2019

234 275 330 384 429 476 612 195 154 99 201 146 282 228 183 1362023 - 2024

251 300 349 398 443 493 615 192 143 94 193 144 266 217 172 1222028 - 2029


1.044620.834680.942350.997650.994731.009031.030470.981571.004890.963681.014910.913480.90039

1.074070.952380.819670.980391.018870.9821411111.040.944440.83721

1.142860.885250.8751.1296311.104171.098040.9818211.020830.918370.862071.03704

10.686271.033911.018871.020.960.944441.037741.018521.021280.907410.93103

0.961540.814811.040820.88060.941180.929821.0638310.981820.815381.080.940.7963

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.85485 0.91348 1.04709 1.01312 1.00489 0.98157 1.03047 1.00903 0.99473 0.95366 0.90952 0.88415 1.07231

50 54 58 54 43 53 46 50 50 51 52 53 54 55 56

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

West Greene SD

101308503





(717) 787-2644

Avella Area SD 101630504

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 38 45 36 43 40 51 49 40 50 42 40 45 39 558

2015 - 2016 50 37 40 39 45 40 49 48 40 50 39 40 43 560

2016 - 2017 41 51 35 39 37 50 40 48 49 36 49 40 39 554

2017 - 2018 36 40 48 32 40 34 52 45 47 50 37 47 35 543

2018 - 2019 38 33 38 46 33 41 32 45 45 44 46 34 45 520

Projection

2019 - 2020 35 32 31 36 47 34 40 32 45 43 42 45 32 494

2020 - 2021 58 31 30 29 36 49 34 40 32 43 41 41 42 506

2021 - 2022 45 53 29 28 29 38 48 34 40 31 41 40 39 495

2022 - 2023 36 41 50 28 28 30 37 48 34 39 30 40 38 479

2023 - 2024 35 32 39 47 28 29 30 37 48 33 38 29 38 463

2024 - 2025 33 31 30 37 48 29 29 30 37 46 32 37 27 446

2025 - 2026 33 30 29 28 37 50 29 29 30 36 44 31 35 441

2026 - 2027 33 30 28 28 28 39 49 29 29 29 35 43 29 429

2027 - 2028 33 30 28 27 28 29 38 49 29 28 28 34 40 421

2028 - 2029 33 30 28 27 27 29 29 38 49 28 27 27 32 404

Avella Area SD

101630504




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


188 229 261 306 351 395 520 163 122 90 166 134 259 214 169 1252018 - 2019

181 210 240 277 325 358 463 144 115 85 148 118 223 186 138 1052023 - 2024

145 174 203 241 290 318 404 145 116 87 144 115 201 163 114 862028 - 2029


0.940750.975940.964090.9641410.987390.985491.013761.013030.982740.93151.129611.27988

0.957450.918920.920.9361710.865380.941181.0251.031250.958330.951.222221.40741

0.8750.959181.027781.020410.979171.1251.040.918921.025640.914290.941181.212121.33333

0.9751.025640.980.91.020830.9795911.111110.948720.9750.945951.159091.24242

0.9555610.92857110.979590.9607811.046511.083330.888890.9251.13636

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.32772 1.19781 0.94571 0.94921 1.01303 1.04537 0.98549 0.98999 1 0.96414 0.96409 0.97594 0.94075

40 44 33 27 27 26 44 34 27 26 25 25 25 25 25

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Avella Area SD

101630504





(717) 787-2644

Bentworth SD 101630903

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 87 92 78 90 99 81 88 90 93 92 84 92 94 1160

2015 - 2016 85 88 90 78 88 104 84 90 91 93 95 78 97 1161

2016 - 2017 72 86 94 85 83 91 90 82 89 92 97 89 77 1127

2017 - 2018 84 78 83 96 91 84 96 92 85 84 87 93 85 1138

2018 - 2019 66 87 70 85 95 97 89 103 92 84 90 91 89 1138

Projection

2019 - 2020 94 98 82 70 87 99 102 91 104 91 86 94 90 1188

2020 - 2021 78 106 93 82 72 91 104 104 92 103 93 90 93 1201

2021 - 2022 84 88 100 93 84 75 96 106 105 91 105 97 89 1213

2022 - 2023 88 95 83 100 95 87 79 98 107 104 93 110 96 1235

2023 - 2024 88 100 90 83 103 99 91 81 99 105 106 97 109 1251

2024 - 2025 88 100 95 90 85 107 104 93 82 98 107 111 96 1256

2025 - 2026 88 100 95 95 92 88 112 106 94 81 100 112 110 1273

2026 - 2027 88 100 95 95 97 96 92 115 107 93 83 105 111 1277

2027 - 2028 88 100 95 95 97 101 101 94 116 105 95 87 104 1278

2028 - 2029 88 100 95 95 97 101 106 103 95 114 107 99 86 1286

Bentworth SD

101630903




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


403 500 589 692 784 868 1138 381 284 195 368 279 549 446 354 2702018 - 2019

464 563 654 735 834 939 1251 370 271 180 376 285 597 516 417 3122023 - 2024

475 576 682 785 880 994 1286 405 304 198 418 312 604 501 406 2922028 - 2029


0.988390.967541.023180.985761.009151.023511.004221.040641.025510.997450.977251.202811.09148

0.956991.045981.071430.9882411.072921.059521.065930.989581.02410.897441.426230.83544

0.955060.958760.945650.943821.036591.022221.054951.012051.070591.021280.965121.181821.37705

0.987180.936841.043011.010990.988890.976190.865381.034091.06410.944441.068181.0751.09091

1.054350.928571.0326111.011111.022731.037041.050510.9777810.978261.128211.0625

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.10113 1.24542 0.94694 0.99745 1.02551 1.04064 1.0505 1.02351 1.00915 0.98576 1.02318 1.04598 0.98839

78 80 66 61 79 85 71 76 80 80 80 80 80 80 80

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Bentworth SD

101630903





(717) 787-2644

Bethlehem-Center SD 101631003

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 90 96 86 86 84 97 90 116 110 88 102 96 107 1248

2015 - 2016 95 79 94 88 84 84 104 89 114 118 79 103 97 1228

2016 - 2017 77 96 81 92 83 81 82 106 85 120 111 80 102 1196

2017 - 2018 82 76 94 82 90 82 81 80 104 89 115 111 78 1164

2018 - 2019 75 81 81 92 81 87 89 77 78 104 88 116 106 1155

Projection

2019 - 2020 89 94 82 81 89 79 90 88 75 78 103 89 111 1148

2020 - 2021 64 93 95 82 79 87 82 89 86 75 77 104 85 1098

2021 - 2022 88 67 94 95 80 77 90 81 87 86 74 78 99 1096

2022 - 2023 80 92 68 94 92 78 80 89 79 87 85 75 74 1073

2023 - 2024 78 84 93 68 91 90 81 79 87 79 86 86 72 1074

2024 - 2025 76 82 85 93 66 89 93 80 77 87 78 87 82 1075

2025 - 2026 74 80 83 85 90 65 92 91 78 77 86 79 83 1063

2026 - 2027 72 78 81 83 83 88 67 90 89 78 76 87 75 1047

2027 - 2028 71 76 79 81 81 81 91 66 88 89 77 77 83 1040

2028 - 2029 69 74 77 79 79 79 84 90 65 88 88 78 74 1024

Bethlehem-Center SD

101631003




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


410 497 586 663 741 845 1155 331 244 155 348 259 569 492 414 3102018 - 2019

414 504 585 664 751 830 1074 337 247 166 326 245 489 410 323 2442023 - 2024

378 457 541 631 696 784 1024 318 239 155 327 243 483 393 328 2402028 - 2029


0.982671.007790.946381.04310.973490.983591.033430.979730.97150.998261.012360.922170.90514

0.954951.00870.9887610.9750.950621.085370.966670.98780.978721.065790.941860.75758

0.97510.958331.047060.981130.9756110.987950.978261.012350.979170.974360.95349

0.990291.012660.940681.052630.955061.019230.976190.964290.943180.978721.025320.932040.98718

1.010421.00980.897731.072730.982760.988891.0721610.976741.023260.979170.840430.92233

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.90514 0.94942 1.01236 0.99826 0.9715 0.97973 1.03343 0.98359 0.97963 1 0.98876 1.00779 0.95495

94 103 78 86 99 98 71 97 88 86 84 82 80 78 76

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Bethlehem-Center SD

101631003





(717) 787-2644

Burgettstown Area SD 101631203

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 74 87 85 94 81 89 91 109 86 118 94 99 103 1210

2015 - 2016 86 67 92 84 90 84 86 88 103 93 107 80 96 1156

2016 - 2017 92 80 70 87 86 88 91 85 88 98 93 104 90 1152

2017 - 2018 76 96 85 68 82 87 85 94 81 82 96 76 107 1115

2018 - 2019 80 75 95 80 70 82 80 89 85 85 84 85 76 1066

Projection

2019 - 2020 93 73 78 91 79 70 78 84 85 85 83 74 88 1061

2020 - 2021 99 85 76 75 90 80 67 82 80 85 83 73 76 1051

2021 - 2022 87 89 88 73 74 91 76 70 78 80 83 73 75 1037

2022 - 2023 83 79 92 85 72 74 87 80 67 78 78 73 75 1023

2023 - 2024 81 75 82 88 84 72 70 91 76 67 76 69 75 1006

2024 - 2025 79 74 78 79 87 85 68 73 86 76 66 67 71 989

2025 - 2026 77 72 77 75 78 88 81 71 69 86 74 58 69 975

2026 - 2027 76 70 75 74 74 79 84 85 67 69 84 65 60 962

2027 - 2028 75 69 73 72 73 74 75 88 81 67 67 74 67 955

2028 - 2029 74 68 72 70 71 73 70 79 84 81 66 59 76 943

Burgettstown Area SD

101631203




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


400 482 562 651 736 821 1066 336 254 174 339 259 504 415 330 2452018 - 2019

410 482 552 643 719 786 1006 309 237 167 304 234 454 363 287 2202023 - 2024

355 428 498 577 661 742 943 306 233 163 314 244 445 366 282 2012028 - 2029


1.030890.881410.977691.003510.950541.008860.983771.006610.98830.961621.038580.977851.02655

10.885421.024391.049380.904261.047060.9195411.029410.941180.989580.949371.02564

1.028850.81720.979590.931820.952941.032970.965911.011630.942530.971431.06251.116280.96203

1.1250.9719610.9514610.988371.083330.977781.023810.945651.044780.975611.06977

0.96970.851060.906781.08140.944950.967030.966291.037040.957450.988241.057470.870131.04878

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.02655 0.9317 1.03858 0.96162 0.9883 1.00661 0.95058 1.04706 0.95054 1.00351 0.97769 0.88141 1.03089

77 82 86 79 78 91 96 85 81 79 77 75 74 73 72

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Burgettstown Area SD

101631203





(717) 787-2644

California Area SD 101631503

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 73 71 62 56 74 81 59 76 60 99 81 56 75 923

2015 - 2016 57 69 75 64 55 79 78 58 76 63 93 72 54 893

2016 - 2017 63 56 73 72 57 60 77 76 58 76 63 93 71 895

2017 - 2018 69 69 53 73 75 57 62 71 72 62 81 56 86 886

2018 - 2019 56 71 65 55 72 74 55 67 73 73 61 76 54 852

Projection

2019 - 2020 65 49 70 65 54 75 73 54 67 75 73 57 73 850

2020 - 2021 59 61 48 71 63 56 74 72 54 69 75 68 55 825

2021 - 2022 58 56 60 48 69 65 55 73 72 56 69 70 65 816

2022 - 2023 65 55 55 60 47 72 64 54 73 74 56 64 67 806

2023 - 2024 66 61 54 55 59 49 71 63 54 75 74 52 61 794

2024 - 2025 67 62 60 54 54 61 48 70 63 56 75 69 50 789

2025 - 2026 68 63 61 60 53 56 60 48 70 65 56 70 66 796

2026 - 2027 69 64 62 61 59 55 55 59 48 72 65 52 67 788

2027 - 2028 70 65 63 62 59 61 54 54 59 50 72 60 50 779

2028 - 2029 72 66 64 63 60 61 60 53 54 61 50 67 58 789

California Area SD

101631503




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


319 393 448 515 588 661 852 269 195 140 268 213 404 337 264 1912018 - 2019

295 344 415 478 532 607 794 237 188 117 263 192 379 316 262 1872023 - 2024

325 386 446 499 553 614 789 228 167 107 228 168 343 290 236 1752028 - 2029


0.959850.929010.997261.033210.993880.990030.983971.036290.975181.00751.000691.069231.08242

0.964290.938270.983871.013891.028171.080650.964910.986670.98631.037740.942031.392161.21739

0.924730.888891.065791.068970.947370.922081.0333311.0416710.946430.921.35294

0.9861111110.974360.974681.090910.890630.961.057970.903230.84

0.964290.888890.939391.0510.983050.962961.067570.982141.032261.056341.061540.91935

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.13678 1.07179 0.98214 1.0075 0.97518 1.03629 0.98397 0.99003 0.99388 1.03321 0.99726 0.92901 0.95985

65 62 75 51 46 57 52 51 57 58 59 60 61 62 63

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

California Area SD

101631503





(717) 787-2644

Canon-McMillan SD 101631703

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 366 396 376 387 387 406 441 381 381 424 389 365 393 5092

2015 - 2016 329 392 402 382 399 396 418 436 388 397 412 390 354 5095

2016 - 2017 397 352 399 424 395 408 397 434 425 403 383 409 376 5202

2017 - 2018 357 433 364 412 429 415 410 408 434 449 396 384 406 5297

2018 - 2019 397 395 430 376 406 443 409 417 410 441 451 390 376 5341

Projection

2019 - 2020 342 385 401 445 382 419 445 416 417 426 433 449 381 5341

2020 - 2021 379 349 391 415 452 394 421 453 416 433 418 431 438 5390

2021 - 2022 389 386 354 404 421 467 396 429 453 432 425 416 421 5393

2022 - 2023 373 396 392 366 410 435 470 403 429 470 424 423 406 5397

2023 - 2024 368 380 402 405 372 423 437 478 403 445 461 422 413 5409

2024 - 2025 363 375 386 416 411 384 425 445 478 418 436 459 412 5408

2025 - 2026 358 370 381 399 422 424 386 433 445 496 410 434 448 5406

2026 - 2027 354 365 376 394 405 436 426 393 433 462 487 408 424 5363

2027 - 2028 349 360 370 389 400 418 438 434 393 450 453 485 398 5337

2028 - 2029 344 356 365 383 395 413 420 446 434 408 441 451 474 5330

Canon-McMillan SD

101631703




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


2004 2447 2856 3273 3683 4124 5341 1679 1236 827 1677 1268 2485 2068 1658 12172018 - 2019

1927 2350 2787 3265 3668 4113 5409 1741 1318 881 1763 1326 2622 2144 1741 12962023 - 2024

1843 2256 2676 3122 3556 3964 5330 1713 1300 880 1708 1288 2654 2208 1774 13662028 - 2029


0.976450.995690.980881.038310.999511.017931.005631.032271.015571.034061.015040.997550.93253

0.979170.984851.004451.016131.00491.017070.985541.032630.985441.032970.993070.98750.99499

0.992671.002610.982631.0564711.027711.00491.050631.011791.032581.034091.098980.8925

0.96410.992720.964741.038660.974771.038281.002531.022561.034031.054731.017860.89341.00761

0.969861.002570.97171.041991.018370.988661.029561.023261.031011.015961.015151.010310.83503

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.94588 0.96374 1.01504 1.03406 1.01557 1.03227 1.00563 1.01793 0.99951 1.03831 0.98088 0.99569 0.97645

388 394 394 400 399 362 401 411 394 389 384 379 374 369 364

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Canon-McMillan SD

101631703





(717) 787-2644

Charleroi SD 101631803

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 130 135 105 136 124 118 128 112 127 131 120 120 104 1590

2015 - 2016 117 129 136 99 129 119 113 114 109 133 120 112 105 1535

2016 - 2017 106 116 122 129 109 130 119 112 114 123 122 111 108 1521

2017 - 2018 102 111 112 125 137 110 132 123 106 118 119 112 101 1508

2018 - 2019 105 101 109 108 128 131 108 132 129 110 114 119 98 1492

Projection

2019 - 2020 102 99 98 106 112 126 130 109 131 137 104 108 108 1470

2020 - 2021 108 111 97 95 110 110 125 131 108 139 129 98 98 1459

2021 - 2022 101 118 108 94 98 108 109 126 130 115 131 122 89 1449

2022 - 2023 88 110 115 105 97 96 107 110 125 138 108 124 111 1434

2023 - 2024 86 96 107 112 109 95 95 108 109 133 130 102 112 1394

2024 - 2025 84 94 94 104 116 107 94 96 107 116 125 123 92 1352

2025 - 2026 83 92 92 91 108 114 106 95 95 114 109 118 111 1328

2026 - 2027 81 90 90 89 94 106 113 107 94 101 107 103 107 1282

2027 - 2028 79 88 88 87 92 92 105 114 106 100 95 101 93 1240

2028 - 2029 78 86 86 85 90 90 91 106 113 113 94 90 92 1214

Charleroi SD

101631803




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


551 682 790 922 1051 1161 1492 500 369 261 479 371 702 570 441 3312018 - 2019

510 605 700 808 917 1050 1394 407 312 217 445 350 694 586 477 3442023 - 2024

425 515 606 712 825 938 1214 400 310 219 423 332 608 502 389 2762028 - 2029


0.906050.944090.941731.062130.992110.978850.988710.98321.033890.970070.975160.930680.92806

0.87510.96611.037741.0487810.981820.95621.0240.964290.981980.753730.97222

0.909910.918030.967481.035090.946431.033611.015381.009171.062021.024590.965520.834590.76119

0.964290.9250.917291.1284410.9911511.007751.101010.948530.945741.171720.79699

0.8750.933330.916031.047240.973210.890630.957630.959680.948530.942861.007410.962691.18182

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.84347 0.92001 0.97516 0.97007 1.03389 0.9832 0.98871 1.00825 0.99211 1.06213 0.94173 0.94409 0.90605

134 99 133 134 108 121 128 120 104 102 100 98 96 94 92

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Charleroi SD

101631803





(717) 787-2644

Chartiers-Houston SD 101631903

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 77 81 87 86 83 91 95 82 71 104 75 73 108 1113

2015 - 2016 88 79 78 90 84 80 89 97 81 76 101 70 73 1086

2016 - 2017 86 92 77 78 91 89 82 94 93 82 77 103 68 1112

2017 - 2018 104 80 98 79 76 95 93 84 94 93 87 78 99 1160

2018 - 2019 85 96 87 101 73 80 90 94 74 97 93 83 75 1128

Projection

2019 - 2020 96 102 100 90 98 75 80 93 90 76 98 91 81 1170

2020 - 2021 109 97 106 103 87 101 75 82 89 93 77 96 89 1204

2021 - 2022 99 111 101 109 100 90 101 77 78 92 94 75 93 1220

2022 - 2023 109 101 116 104 106 103 90 104 74 80 93 92 73 1245

2023 - 2024 107 111 105 120 101 109 103 93 100 76 81 91 90 1287

2024 - 2025 104 108 116 108 117 104 109 106 89 103 77 79 89 1309

2025 - 2026 102 106 113 120 105 121 104 112 101 92 104 75 77 1332

2026 - 2027 100 104 111 116 117 108 121 107 107 104 93 102 73 1363

2027 - 2028 98 102 108 114 113 121 108 124 102 110 105 91 99 1395

2028 - 2029 96 99 106 111 111 116 121 111 119 105 111 103 89 1398

Chartiers-Houston SD

101631903




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


442 522 612 706 780 877 1128 338 258 168 355 265 516 422 348 2512018 - 2019

544 653 756 849 949 1025 1287 405 296 193 372 269 531 438 338 2622023 - 2024

523 639 760 871 990 1095 1398 467 351 230 456 335 638 527 408 3032028 - 2029


0.973530.980041.011321.028670.956881.028090.998831.029990.971571.022771.022591.039431.09917

0.961540.9540211.031910.880951.010750.947371.052630.924051.030611.08751.078650.93407

0.961171.012991.06098111.024391.044941.043960.974361.025971.065221.012661.16854

0.971431.01981.013161.012350.958761.056181.0251.059521.0111110.974681.260271.08861

10.933330.971151.070420.98781.021050.978020.963860.976741.034480.962960.806121.20548

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


1.09917 1.11719 1.04247 1.03036 0.97157 1.02999 0.99883 1.02809 0.95688 1.02867 1.01132 0.98004 0.97353

98 73 79 89 91 87 99 90 99 97 95 93 91 89 87

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Chartiers-Houston SD

101631903





(717) 787-2644

Fort Cherry SD 101632403

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 76 75 90 101 69 74 91 89 90 78 76 77 81 1067

2015 - 2016 63 77 69 96 95 68 74 91 89 91 86 82 84 1065

2016 - 2017 65 62 69 67 102 97 67 78 91 94 89 83 74 1038

2017 - 2018 84 57 60 69 68 100 96 75 78 87 90 87 82 1033

2018 - 2019 65 78 59 59 65 65 97 99 69 78 85 92 85 996

Projection

2019 - 2020 78 62 74 59 58 64 64 102 91 69 76 86 88 971

2020 - 2021 82 67 59 74 58 57 63 67 94 92 67 77 82 939

2021 - 2022 73 71 64 59 73 57 56 66 62 95 89 68 74 907

2022 - 2023 85 63 68 64 58 72 56 59 61 62 92 90 65 895

2023 - 2024 83 73 60 68 63 57 71 59 54 61 60 93 86 888

2024 - 2025 81 71 70 60 67 62 56 75 54 54 59 61 89 859

2025 - 2026 79 70 68 70 59 66 61 59 69 54 52 60 58 825

2026 - 2027 77 68 67 68 69 58 65 64 54 69 52 53 57 821

2027 - 2028 75 66 65 67 67 68 57 68 59 54 67 53 51 817

2028 - 2029 73 65 63 65 66 66 67 60 63 59 52 68 51 818

Fort Cherry SD

101632403




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12


326 391 488 587 656 734 996 330 265 168 343 246 508 409 340 2622018 - 2019

347 404 475 534 588 649 888 241 184 113 245 174 413 354 300 2392023 - 2024

332 398 465 525 588 647 818 256 190 123 249 182 353 293 230 1712028 - 2029


0.989581.010951.003761.005830.981.051180.986250.985710.990011.005250.954730.847090.93557

0.977011.022220.9770110.921.031250.970.955880.942030.983331.035091.130430.89041

0.987950.977530.957450.9560411.11940.989690.980391.0149310.967740.686751.21739

0.902440.965120.978021.0561811.054050.985291.021051.06250.971010.89610.837840.78313

1.090911.078951.102561.011111110.985510.940591.066670.920.733330.85135

2017-18 to 2018-19

2016-17 to 2017-18

2015-16 to 2016-17

2014-15 to 2015-16

Average Rate


0.98638 0.85017 0.95473 1.00525 0.99001 0.98571 0.98625 1.05118 0.92 1.00583 0.97083 1.01095 0.9558

105 74 83 69 73 79 83 74 86 84 82 80 78 76 74

201720162015201420132012201120102009Year

Births

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023


Retention Rate Used

Fort Cherry SD

101632403





(717) 787-2644

McGuffey SD 101633903

YEAR K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

Actual

2014 - 2015 128 119 142 123 133 123 131 117 132 134 163 159 139 1743

2015 - 2016 116 128 114 137 128 138 123 133 115 125 128 158 153 1696

2016 - 2017 144 97 125 116 135 123 139 121 131 113 125 123 146 1638

2017 - 2018 114 117 115 118 118 136 125 142 116 128 113 114 120 1576

2018 - 2019 120 117 121 120 126 122 137 126 142 116 127 106 109 1589

Projection

2019 - 2020 113 122 116 120 123 127 123 138 124 139 116 120 101 1582

2020 - 2021 114 121 121 115 123 124 128 124 135 121 139 110 115 1590

2021 - 2022 129 122 120 120 118 124 125 129 122 132 121 131 105 1598

2022 - 2023 102 139 121 119 123 119 125 126 127 119 132 114 125 1591

2023 - 2024 100 109 138 120 122 124 120 126 124 124 119 125 109 1560

2024 - 2025 98 107 108 137 123 123 125 121 124 121 124 112 119 1542

2025 - 2026 96 105 106 107 141 124 124 126 119 121 121 117 107 1514

2026 - 2027 94 103 104 105 110 142 125 125 124 116 121 114 112 1495

2027 - 2028 92 101 102 103 108 111 143 126 123 121 116 114 109 1469

2028 - 2029 90 98 100 101 106 109 112 144 124 120 121 110 109 1444

McGuffey SD

101633903




YEAR K-4 K-5 8-12 7-12 7-9 6-9 7-8 6-8 5-8 K-12 K-9 K-8 K-7 K-6 9-12 10-12

Notes: 1. Excludes students in full-time out-of-district special education, comprehensive AVTSs, charter schools, state-owned schools, consortium-operated alternative high schools, and juvenile correctional institutions. 2. Enrollment projections beyond five years are subject to errors in the lower grades resulting from inconsistencies between actual and projected live births and should be reviewed closely. 3. Four year old kindergarten students, if any, added to K enrollments. 4. Elementary and secondary ungraded students were distributed among the grades. Therefore, enrollments by grade may differ from those reported by the local education agencies.Sources: 1. Pennsylvania Information Management System (PIMS) 2.

actual projection - department of education and statistics/enrollment... · enrollment projections...

Documents