Activities of the Emerging Risks Unitg g

The Emerging Risks Unit:

1

The Emerging Risks Unit:Tobin Robinson, Andrea Altieri, Luana Censi, Andrea

Gervelmeyer, Tilemachos Goumperis, Aglika Hristova, Simona Pecoraro, Agnes Rortais

Emerging Risks Unit

2

Mandate of the EFSA on Emerging RisksMandate of the EFSA on Emerging Risks

REGULATION (EC) No 178/2002 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENTREGULATION (EC) No 178/2002 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 28 January 2002

Laying down the general principles and requirements of food law, establishing the European FoodSafety Authority and laying down procedures in matters of food safety

Article 34Identification of emerging risks

1. The Authority shall establish monitoring procedures for systematic searching for,1. The Authority shall establish monitoring procedures for systematic searching for,collecting, collating and analysing information and data with a view to theidentification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission.

Analyse and filterCollecting and collating

sharing

33

Emerging Risks Emerging Risks -- EFSA’sEFSA’s definitiondefinition

A food and feed-related emerging risk (ER) ……. is an issuethat in the future may pose a risk to the health of theconsumer, animals or the environment. The indication of anER may relate;y ;

(1) to a significant exposure to a hazard not recognizedearlier orearlier or

(2) to a new/increased exposure to a known hazard.

Emerging risks can be the result of many factors, such aschanged consumption patterns, new processes, andi d l l f ll t tincreased levels of pollutants.

Opinion of the Scientific Committee on a request from EFSA related to the earlyidentification of emerging risks (July 2006)

444

identification of emerging risks (July 2006).

HistoryHistorySearch enginesTimeline

2006 EMRISK ProjectInfluential sector Indicator Indicative

question Information sources

SignalScientific experts

SC Opinion on Emerging Risks Proactive Alert

Action

EFSA Adopts Emerging Risk Definition2007

ESCO Working Group on Emerging Risks

5

2008 Emerging Risks Unit

Activities of the Emerging Risks UnitActivities of the Emerging Risks Unit

Developing methodologyDevelop procedures and best practices for;

- data collection and- data analysis for the identification of emerging risksy g g

Data collectionIdentify existing key sources of information and monitor themIdentify existing key sources of information and monitor them

Identify signalsIdentification of potential emerging risksIdentification of potential emerging risks

__________________

(Preparedness for food safety crises)

666

Networking on emerging risks Networking on emerging risks

E t MemberExperts Member States

Establish a Europe wide global network system for exchangingEstablish a Europe-wide global network system for exchanging information to screen new hazards

Developing a cooperative approach (a common model) to address emerging risks in different sectors respecting the independence and autonomy of each organization

77

independence and autonomy of each organization

Emerging risks identification systemEmerging risks identification system

8

Current tools under developmentCurrent tools under development

•Rapid AlertsIT applications for data analysis of the Rapid Alert System

for Food & Feed (RASFF)for Food & Feed (RASFF)

•Media monitoringAssessment of the European Media Monitor

•Trade data•Trade dataEurostatUN Comtrade

999

10

What is the RASFF ?What is the RASFF ?

• Aim:

Exchange information of a direct or indirect risk to human health, deriving from

food or feed

• Legal basis: g

EC No 178/2002, art. 50-52

• Network:

DG SANCO responsible for managing the network– DG-SANCO responsible for managing the network

– EFSA provides scientific or technical support

11

– Member Countries (notify recall measures, recommendations, border

rejections)

Rapid Alert System for Food and Rapid Alert System for Food and FeedFeed (RASFF)FeedFeed (RASFF)

12

Objectives, timelines, resourcesObjectives, timelines, resources

• Main Objective• Main ObjectiveDevelop a system for routine monitoring and analysis of recent datafrom the RASFF, aiming at a timely trend detection of hazards in foodand feed

• TimelinesSetting up of the system in the first half of 2009Internal validation and outputs definition by the end of the 2009Internal validation and outputs definition by the end of the 2009

• Resources EC: RASFF TeamEFSA internal resources: IT support, AMU, EFSA internal task forceExternal: contractors for statistical analyses

13

External: contractors for statistical analyses

MethodologyMethodology

• Data collection - data management, storage and cleaning

• Data Analysis and Signal detection- descriptive statistics (e.g. excel, sas)- quantitative statistical assessment (e.g. trends and alerts) - IT applications for data visualization (e.g. GIS-mapping tool)

• Validation of the system

• Define a strategy for sharing the information

14

DeliverablesDeliverables

• Access DatabaseAccess Database • Now available on intranet

• Descriptive statistics (SAS Web)• First draft under trial with internal task force

• Excel pivot charts • Validated by the Unit• Being validated by the internal task force

• GIS–mapping Tool (developed by AMU)• GIS–mapping Tool (developed by AMU)• To be validated by the Unit

15

Descriptive Statistics Descriptive Statistics Distribution by Product CategoriesDistribution by Product CategoriesDistribution by Product CategoriesDistribution by Product Categories

16

Descriptive Statistics Descriptive Statistics Time seriesTime seriesTime seriesTime series

17

Descriptive StatisticsDescriptive StatisticsContamination levels: Aflatoxin B1Contamination levels: Aflatoxin B1Contamination levels: Aflatoxin B1Contamination levels: Aflatoxin B1

μg / kg -ppm

18

Descriptive StatisticsDescriptive StatisticsContamination levels: Aflatoxin B1Contamination levels: Aflatoxin B1Contamination levels: Aflatoxin B1Contamination levels: Aflatoxin B1

19

GIS GIS –– Mapping toolMapping tool(developed by AMU)(developed by AMU)

20

Next StepsNext Steps

• Completion and validation of the web-applications(J ne 2009)(June 2009)

• Define IT strategy for system maintenance (June 2009)

• Statistical models for quantitative signal detectionq g(by July 2009)

21

Media MonitoringMedia Monitoring

222222

Overview on EMMhttp://emm jrc it/overview htmlhttp://emm.jrc.it/overview.html

• Initially developed by the JRC for DG-COMMy y• Covers 20 news wires and 2,500 news sources from around the world

Gathering, filtering and classification

Aggregation and clustering

Presentation, visualization

Special features of EMM:Fully automatic (moderation possible)y ( p )Real time (10-minutes updates), 24/7High multilinguality (>40 languages)

Presentation of EMM

NewsBrief : breaking

EMM-Labs : graphical breaking

news and live news of the last few

graphical analysis

minutes and hours

NewsExplorer : MedISys : early warning daily news

summary

early warning alerts per category

and country

For further information, contact the Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) of the JRC

Overview on MedISys (public & restricted access)http://medusa jrc ithttp://medusa.jrc.it

• Identify potential threats on:Identify potential threats on:– Diseases– Bioterrorism– Nuclear– Chemical

Oth ifi l t (i t ti l i ti EFSA ECDC )– Other: specific alerts (international organization, EFSA, ECDC,…)

• Information filtering and classification can be moderated on RNSInformation filtering and classification can be moderated on RNS (Rapid News System) : https://medirns.jrc.it/RNS/alerteditor/help/help.html#02

– Articles are categorized using boolean combinations of search wordsSearch words have positive or negative weights– Search words have positive or negative weights

– An acceptance threshold is defined to pick up search words – A proximity level can also be set up (occurrence of the words in the text)

25

MedISys

MedISys top stories

H1N1 category

Sources on MedISys

17 countries

(

101

17 countries

(20-30 channels)

(30-40 channels)

Many countries are not covered by MedISys (or poorly covere

countries(1-10

channels)23

countries(10-20

channels)

Most uncovered countries are located in the Southern Hemisphere (tropics)p ( p )

Sources on MedISys in EU

Germany

Number of media sources screened

NetherlandsItaly

HungarySpain

SwedenUK

France

Czech RepublicRomania

GreeceFinlandPolandAustria

DenmarkNetherlands

IrelandSlovakiaBulgariaBelgium

LatviaPortugal

Czech Republic

CyprusLuxembourg

MaltaEstonia

LithuaniaSlovania

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Heterogeneity of media-coverage on MedIsys for EU countriesg y g y

Trade dataTrade data

313131

International Trade and Import International Trade and Import SurveillanceSurveillanceSurveillanceSurveillance

• EUROSTAT is an important source for data regarding EU

• UN Comtrade database for international trade

The reliability availability and limitations of dataThe reliability, availability and limitations of data in the above mentioned databases (and others) are being evaluatedare being evaluated

32

Example, the exports of Example, the exports of Irish pork was tracedIrish pork was tracedIrish pork was traced Irish pork was traced

Exports of Irish pork meat and offal. Period January-August 2008. Quantities in 100Kg

33No data for Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Malta, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia were reported.

Next StepsNext Steps

343434

Climate change Climate change -- Article 36 callArticle 36 call

Modelling, predicting and mapping the (re)emergence ofaflatoxin B1 in cereals in EU due to climate change.

The impact of climate change has been identified as an p gemerging issue for food and feed safety.

Changing patterns in mycotoxin production in cereals due to Changing patterns in mycotoxin production in cereals due to climate change is identified as a potential area of concern.

Therefore EFSA is seeking scientific information based on Therefore, EFSA is seeking scientific information, based on models and scenarios, to predict the potential production of mycotoxins in cereals (maize, wheat and rice) due to li t h Thi k ill t i k t climate change. This work will support risk assessment

activities of other EFSA’s Units and Panels.

353535

Climate change (cont’d)Climate change (cont’d)

It is difficult to determine the potential risks of(re)emerging mycotoxin producing microorganisms becausetheir development is influenced by several interactingfactors such as, microclimate conditions (e.g. local, ( gtemperature and humidity), use of fertilisers, and insectattacks – all modulated by climate change.

The project shall focus on the growth of aflatoxin B1 producers at the pre-harverst stage only (potential contamination events during transportation storage and contamination events during transportation, storage and trading are not covered by the call).

363636

New Working GroupNew Working Group

A new WG to be formed to support the activities of the Emerging RisksUnit in identifying Emerging Risks.

Draft mandate to include:

1) Review of current tools for identifying Emerging Risks- propose further refinements(Applications other than just for identification of ER)(Applications other than just for identification of ER)

2) Working from an existing provisional list of more than 200 ERindicators;indicators;

- Propose a method for prioritisation- Propose a priority list of signals (taking into account theavailability of databases and interactions between signals)availability of databases, and interactions between signals)

3) Identify the most useful databases for the priority signals

373737

Stakeholder support to the WGStakeholder support to the WG

We need input from the food/feed chain !p

Therefore the formation of a “Stakeholder support group onemerging risks is proposed”:emerging risks is proposed :

Experts from food/feed chain with experience of identifying emergingrisks

Input desired:

F t l k l d d th d l iFactual knowledge and methodologies

Emerging trends in:

Packaging, processing, raw materials

……… new technology, new ingredients, new sources (countries, or

383838

……… new technology, new ingredients, new sources (countries, orbiological/material), changing consumption patterns, agriculturalpractices …………

Stakeholder support to the WGStakeholder support to the WG

Formal request for nominations to the support group, and the mandateto be sent out by end of June 2009to be sent out by end of June 2009

First meeting anticipated for September 2009

The group will meet twice in 2009, and three-four times in 2010.

Activity anticipated to end by September 2010.y p y p

393939

Thank you for your attention

EMRISK U it EFSA i itt d t i d d EMRISK Unit as EFSA is committed to independency and transparency

efsa e ropa ewww.efsa.europa .eu

40