Activities at ACMAD,Activities at ACMAD,The African Centre of The African Centre of

Meteorological Applications Meteorological Applications for Developmentfor Development

MarianeMariane DIOPDIOP KANEKANE

ACMADACMAD

Email: Email: marianemariane@@acmad.neacmad.ne

OutlineOutline

The objectiveThe objectiveThe tools and productsThe tools and productsTraining & Capacity buildingTraining & Capacity buildingResearchResearch

The objective of ACMAD

Help African countries to achieve sustainable development through efficient use of Meteorological information

Issue meteorological products available at http://www.acmad.ne/

On the job training & capacity building for NMHSs

Technology transfer

Research

The products & toolsThe products & tools

Climat & EnvironnementClimat & EnvironnementSeasonal Forecast bulletinSeasonal Forecast bulletinMonthly and 10 day bulletinsMonthly and 10 day bulletinsClimate scenariosClimate scenariosImpacts & AdaptationsImpacts & AdaptationsClimate & Health Climate & Health TrainingTraining

Weather Watch and PredictionWeather Watch and Prediction

24h 24h –– 10 days forecast charts & bulletins over 10 days forecast charts & bulletins over the African continentthe African continent

Production of WASA & WASF since AMMAProduction of WASA & WASF since AMMAextension to the eastern & southern Africa extension to the eastern & southern Africa SASA & SASF for the SWFDPSASA & SASF for the SWFDP

Data archivingData archiving

Training (Training (on the job, workshopon the job, workshop……))

Research (Research (Case studies, evaluation & models Case studies, evaluation & models intercomparison, Regional modellingintercomparison, Regional modelling ……))

ToolsTools for datafor data processing & Forecastingprocessing & Forecasting

RetimRetim Afrique Afrique && MSG MSG for real data receptionfor real data reception2 PC 2 PC withwith MESSIRMESSIR--VISION VISION && VCS VCS to nalyse and visualize to nalyse and visualize data received through data received through MSG; MSG; available at all NMHSs but of available at all NMHSs but of somehow limited use; model data may not available somehow limited use; model data may not available 3 3 PCsPCs SYNERGIE SYNERGIE for data analysis and forecastfor data analysis and forecast; ; access to different models: Arpege, ECMWF, UKMO access to different models: Arpege, ECMWF, UKMO Double screen; Provides ample working spaceDouble screen; Provides ample working spacemultiple windows concept; multiple windows concept; simultaneous examination and simultaneous examination and comparison of data from different platforms: imagery, comparison of data from different platforms: imagery, modelsmodels1 1 workstation for numerical regional modellingworkstation for numerical regional modelling1 1 servserver for er for AMMAAMMA web siteweb site

ExExaamplesmples of productsof productsWASF VALID 29-08-2006 18Z WASA VALID 29-08-2006 18Z

Forecast Reasonably good

ExExaamplesmples of productsof productsWASF VALID 20-09-2006 18Z WASA VALID 20-09-2006 18Z

A good number of sytems were not forecast. Why?

ExExaamplesmples of productsof productsSASF valid 28-02-2007 18Z SASA valid 28-02-2007 18Z

Reasonably good forecast but 5 days earlier …

Tropical Cyclone Gamede was forecast for reach Madagascar on 23rd . Missed because of interpretation of model & IR data

22/02/07 12Z T+00 23/02/07 12Z T+24 28/02/07 18Z T+30

Tropical Cyclone Flavio; predicted to reach Mozambique 3 days ahead Analysis of 20/02/07 12Z Forecast T+48

Vérification 22/02/07 12Z

Models intercomparison850 HPa Winds 20/02/07 at 00Z (T+24)

ARPEGE ECMWF UKMO

Some disagreements between the three models;eg the vortex associated with tropical cyclone Flavio is not captured by the ECMWF, and the intensity is different in ARPEGE and UKMO.Model intercomparison + satellite imagery allows forecasters to decide on which one to use to predict specific features on specific regions.

ResearchTo improve our products to suit the NMHSs & other end users ie improve our forecast & predictibility for human security,for early warning systems, food security etc in order to reduce the socio-economic effects of high impact weather.

Regional Modelling

Model Evaluation & Intercomparison

Forecast evaluation

Document interesting case studies for later use in our project (ACMAD, NMHS, European partners, Americans?) of writing a forecaster’s handbook; Still seeking funds!!!