Action Items for Preparing for the Triple Threat of Financial Collapse,

Peak Oil, and Abrupt Climate Change

By Greg Craven

No rights reserved at all. In fact, forward this to all your friends if you’re so inclined. Hell, make a movie out of it and earn some money if you want. Don’t worry about splitting the profits. You

can do me a favor sometime…. 1

Presented Friday, November 12th, 2010At CoHo Ecovillage, Corvallis Oregon

Resilience, resilience! Yay! Yay! Yay! Don't be a lump, get

resilient TODAY!

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Disaster kit (Red Cross), selected

• Complete list at http://bit.ly/12qt24• Medications (Red Cross: 7 days. Other authors: 1

month. Ask doctor and insurance)• Water: 1 gal/person/day for 2 weeks• Food: nonperishable, 2 weeks• Flashlight• Radio: battery or crank• Extra batteries for all

– Maybe upgrade to rechargeable for frequent power outages

• First aid kit

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Disaster kit (Red Cross), selected (cont)

• Multipurpose tool (Leatherman, etc.)• DO NOT SUCCUMB TO PERFECTION PARALYSIS--

don't assume you buy all or none. Just start with a couple.

• Copies of documents (deed, prescriptions, insurance, etc.)

• Cell phones with chargers• Emergency contact info• Cash• Emergency blanket• Pet supplies• Extra clothing

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Disaster kit (Red Cross), selected (cont)

• Map

• My additions– Hand sanitizer– Duct tape– Reliable lighter (Zippo takes most any fuel

and is reliable)

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My main sources for all this

• FerFal– Lived through Argentina's 2001 currency collapse– Why I like him...

• The Argentinian crisis is a decent model for ours (overextended financial system in a powerful nation with a large middle class).

• Attitude– "The world is not going to end. It will just get a bit more . . .

complicated."– Gets heavy, and doesn't pull any punches about how ugly reality

can get, yet says "Sometimes, just help people in your community because it's the right thing to do," and "The weak get targeted and it's our responsibility to help them. In fact, it's our duty." Nice.

• Not a survivalist

• Chris Martenson

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My main sources for all this (cont)

– "The Crash Course" guy– Why I like him . . .

• His integrated view (the triple threat)• Has enacted much of this, in community with like

minded families in his area.• His free "Crash Course" is not only a GREAT eye

opener for family and friends, but is also a great community service.

• Not a survivalist.

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Mental prep• Can take philosophical view (Peter). A spiritual change.• A change of mindset and expectations. More focus on simple

pleasures, connections.• Run through scenarios in your head so you can react quickly

rather than start from scratch when things happen– Make lists of things to buy and do if there's a bank crisis

tomorrow, given your current level of preparation.– Start probing the uncomfortable questions now, to regretful

decisions in the moment.– No one wants to think of these things. That doesn't mean they

won't happen. Better to think it through and not need it, than the other way around.

– Examples• What if a hungry jerk asks for some of my food stores?• What if it's a hungry little girl that asks?

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Mental prep (cont)

• "But I'm not going to let anyone starve..." Yet how much will you share if there's not enough to go around? How do you decide with whom to share? You can't deny it happens in the world. Who do you let starve?

• If someone points a coat pocket and says "All your money" when you're carrying your family's last cash;

• If a guy in a clown suit dragging a kiwi fruit at the end of a leash walks up to your table in a restaurant, eats off your plate, does a little dance, and asks you to "ride the elevator" with him.

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Food

• 3-5 days of food in stores– Just-in-time delivery– Low inventories– Very efficient– Highly brittle

• Learn to eat in season, locally, for practice• Stock up now. Food is cheap and plentiful right

now. Don't wait until after a crisis when it's more expensive and perhaps harder to come by.

• The Mormons got it figured out. Don't need to reinvent the wheel for how and what to store.

• What food to store?.

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Food (cont)

– What you already eat.– Easy/no cooking– FerFal gives recommendations based on his

experience.– Stein gives recommendations based on complete

diet and storage

• Storage– Foodsafe 5 gal buckets

• air tight lids– gamma– regular

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Food (cont)

• oxygen absorbers with mylar bags for long-term• Rodents may be a problem• Sources

– usaemergency.com– Local: Gorden, near Adair Village, 29142 Tampico Rd.,

541-745-5106. Has lots of other storage stuff too.

– Galvanized trash cans (not airtight, weigh down the lid for rodents)

– Canned food. Store, eat, or barter...you win.

• How much to store?– Stein gives calculations

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Food (cont)– Household_Dry_Food_Storage.pdf from Post Peak Living

• Growing– Don't need to grow all your own. Just reduce the amount you

have to buy/barter for.– Focus on heirloom varieties– Get started now, even if it's small

• [Re: gardening:] "There's no substitute for experience. One must live through the wettest year and the driest year and the year with funny yellow bugs and so on. So my advice is to get started" [with all aspects, including chickens -GC].--Martenson

• Several outstanding books specific to our area. Lucky us!– "Work with local permaculture experts to design a system of

growing food on [your] land that will require the least amount of energy to produce the largest possible gains."--Martenson

• Backup method of cooking

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Food (cont)

– Camp stove + extra fuel– Immersion water heaters– Propane grill with extra canister– Charcoal grill with extra charcoal– Solar oven– Pressure cooker takes way less energy– Will your gas stove light if there's no power?

• Save seed. "SHARE" group in SouthTown Corvallis

• Support local farmers--CSAs, farmer's market--so that those structures, land, and skills will be around when we really need them.

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Water

• Expect water shortages and service interruption--without warning--after a crisis (or natural disaster)– So keep some stored

• Stored– How much? 1 gal/person/day for 2 weeks– Keep sealed and dark– Refresh every year– Treat with 8-16 drops bleach (NO ADDITIVES) per

gallon to preserve– Foodsafe drums and barrels

• Sources

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Water (cont)

– usaemergency.com– Local: Gorden, near Adair Village, 29142 Tampico Rd.,

541-745-5106. Has lots of other storage stuff too.

• Get a siphon for barrel• Bucket for pouring (flushing toilet, etc.)

– Short on space? Store in bottles stuffed all around the house.

• Treatment– Water filters

• Commercial gravity drip• Pump

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Water (cont)• Slow sand filtration system (Richard Hervey is you man

here)– Chlorination

• NO scents or color safe or added cleaners. Check the contents for "sodium hypochlorite" ONLY.

• Rotate every year.• 2 - 4 drops per liter (4 - 16 per gallon) based on

turbidity and temp.– Boiling– Distillation– UV--"SteriPen"– MSR's MIOX Purifier

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Water (cont)

• No aftertaste, but long dwell time• Developed with military

• Solar shower

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Energy in general

• Mantra: It's easier to conserve than create.

• Cut down elec. use in the home with a "Kill-a-Watt" or similar device.

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Warmth

• Second and third way to heat house/water– wood stove– primary system– solar hot water system

• Insulate thoroughly. Saves money too!

• Ensure that you have a way to keep at least one room warm.

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Transport

• Fuel efficient– Car– Motorcycle with hitch and trailer

• Car: common make, reputation for durable, older? (easier to fix)– Problem: more often stolen (for parts)

• 1995 Civic• 1991 Accord• 1989 Camry• 1997 Ford F-150

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Transport (cont)

– Carburetor preferable to fuel injection. Simpler to repair.

– Diesel can accept more fuels.• Kerosene• Fuel Oil• Biodiesel (maybe homemade)• Straight veggie oil (SVG)

– Stock up on fuel filters– FerFal's recommendations: tough, popular,

proven, easily available parts.• Bronco

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Transport (cont)

• Chevy Blazer• Toyota Corolla• Toyota pickup

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Finances• The bullet point advice of Jason Bradford, the star of our first

funshop, in January...– Reduce expenses– Find non-monetary ways to cover as many needs as possible– Develop some expertise in one or more necessary skills that

others will find valuable.– Mentally shift to a personal identity that seeks rewards in

developing social connectivity, exposure to nature, and competency in basic skills, as opposed to financial and material metrics

• "Buy and hold" is over– Watch the financial events more closely– Lookit timeline of Bear Sterns on

• Shift focus from "return on investment" to "return of investment"

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Finances (cont)– Be mindful of liquidity--you may not be able to "get your

money" out of investments as fast as you'd think• Cash is safest form of money at this point.

– Money market funds next.– Even bonds are getting a little iffy in the near-to-mid term. – Stocks--including mutual funds--are most prudently viewed

as "high risk" these days• Banks

– Spread money over several banks– Try to withdraw large amount and discover--don't ask--

what limitations there are– Establish wiring process from broker to bank

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Finances (cont)• Have a store of physical cash--greenbacks--kept at home.

– The more anxious you are, the more money to keep at home• For milder scenarios (natural disaster), perhaps a few hundred dollars• For more extreme scenarios (grid down, currency collapse), several

authors say store enough (AT HOME) to cover all expenses (including mortgage) for three months.

– In the event of credit markets seizing, an extended power outage, or a currency collapse, banks and ATMs may be unavailable for a while.

• Upgrade your marketable skills--something that will always be valuable to the community– Nurse/EMT/Physician's Assistant/Physical Therapist, et al.– FerFal says education (for private tutoring when public ed

degrades too far). I'm unconvinced, but he's more experienced.– Handy(wo)man/small engine repair

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Finances (cont)– Develop your hobbies/skills towards entrepreneurship now.

• Gold (solid14 or 18kt) and silver jewelry. Decent store of wealth anytime, doesn't make you a target when selling. Chains are good for incremental selling. --FerFal

• Get out of an consumer debt• Get hardcopies of all financial statements• Change insurance to higher deductibles, put difference in

premiums into emergency fund• Dip into the local currency, Corvallis "Hours," so that if the

SHTF with hyperinflation, we've got a start at a local economy without relying on a national currency.– http://www.hourexchange.org/

• Consider selling any rental properties

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Physical safety• "Crime will be one of your worst problems"--FerFal• If you choose to buy gold or silver, tell only ONE person. Loose lips

talk, and make you a target. Drill your confidant on the location and access to the metal, whether safe deposit or elsewhere.

• Take/refresh a first aid course.• Raise your situational awareness. FerFal states that the best use of

a firearm is to not need it, because you avoided trouble using your situational awareness.

• If you choose to buy a firearm...– Make sure you take a training course specific to that firearm, for your

safety and others, as well as for your comfort and effectiveness.– Make sure you have and ALWAYS use a gun safe.– "There is no such thing as an unloaded gun."– Based on experience in Argentina (a decent model for a financial

collapse here), FerFal recommends hands down a Glock pistol.

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Physical safety (cont)

– Be sure to learn ALL the legal ramifications of carrying and use, so you don't end up in jail.

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Misc• Upgrade your body now

– Joint replacements/major surgery– Lasik, PRK, or epilasik– Get that bad back healed. I can give recs– Vaccinations. Up to date. Perhaps expand to "travel" vaccs.– Get any dental work done

• Get good shoes/hiking boots. If you really like them, buy two sets. SHTF: you won't be hosed when your first pair wears out. BAU: They constantly change shoe models, and you won't be able to find the same one.

• Power down your choices now, to avoid shock– Thermostat

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Misc (cont)

– Food (amount and types)--important for kids– Transport– Take a cue from a much tougher generation:

"Use it up, wear it out, make it do, or do without."• FerFal's "If I could go back in time"

– Generator– More food– Knowledge– His old car (tough, proven, common parts, simple– Fuel containers--not just jerry cans, but big metal

trailers, like U-Haul size

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Misc (cont)

• Spare appliances, if found cheap (fridge, microwave, water pump if on well)

• On having backups: "Three is two, two is one, and one is none." --FerFal

• Assemble your library now. Perhaps pool with others.• Keep copies offsite of:

– Account numbers– Deed of house– Birth certificate

• 72-hour "Grab and Go" kit for natural disasters• Work to elect and support far-sighted people to city

council and mayor. Keep Richard Hervey there.

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