acm 97 the next 50 years of networking vinton g. cerf senior vp, internet architecture, mci
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ACM 97
The Next 50 Years
of NetworkingVinton G. Cerf
Senior VP, Internet Architecture,
MCI
ACM 97
ACM 97ACM 97THE NEXT THE NEXT 5050 YEARS OF YEARS OF
COMPUTINGCOMPUTING
ACM 97
ACM 97ACM 97
Copyright Copyright 1997 ACM, Association for Computing 1997 ACM, Association for Computing
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THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTINGTHE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
James BurkeJames Burke
Master of CeremoniesMaster of Ceremonies
ACM 97VINT CERF
ACM 97
ACM 97
ACM 97
ACM 97
ACM 97
Fax, Television - Long MaturationFax, Television - Long Maturation Internet Takes 20+ YearsInternet Takes 20+ Years Internet Driven From OutsideInternet Driven From Outside
– Gopher, WWWGopher, WWW– Internet Telephony, JavaInternet Telephony, Java
Sigrid’s Cochlear ImplantSigrid’s Cochlear Implant
And Everything Happens And Everything Happens OvernightOvernight
ACM 97
Interworking of Telephony Interworking of Telephony Services With the InternetServices With the Internet– Interweaving of Two Great Interweaving of Two Great
Networks of the 20th CenturyNetworks of the 20th Century Network Independent ServicesNetwork Independent Services ““internet telephony” as internet telephony” as
inadequate as “horseless inadequate as “horseless carriage” to describecarriage” to describe
Weaving a New FabricWeaving a New Fabric
ACM 97
Customers Want InteroperabilityCustomers Want Interoperability Open Standards are RequiredOpen Standards are Required Interoperability Opens New Interoperability Opens New
Application PossibilitiesApplication Possibilities New Platforms: WWW, Vault, New Platforms: WWW, Vault,
Java, GamesJava, Games
Interoperability Is The KeyInteroperability Is The Key
ACM 97
ACM 97
American “Instant Gratification”American “Instant Gratification” Telecommuting at Home, Teleplay Telecommuting at Home, Teleplay
at Work!at Work! Micropayments and the Penny Micropayments and the Penny
NovelNovel Johnny’s Mommy and Teacher, Johnny’s Mommy and Teacher,
Email and the WWWEmail and the WWW
Everything On DemandEverything On Demand
ACM 97
ACM 97
Continuous ConnectionContinuous Connection ““Smart” Scales, refrigeratorSmart” Scales, refrigerator ““Smart” Sensors - Computer Knows Smart” Sensors - Computer Knows
Where it is, When it is, TemperatureWhere it is, When it is, Temperature Reading Glasses -- 21st C StyleReading Glasses -- 21st C Style 21st Century Microwave Oven21st Century Microwave Oven
Network ImmersionNetwork Immersion
ACM 97
““Telephony”, “Video”, “Radio” Over Telephony”, “Video”, “Radio” Over InternetInternet
Internet over TV, Radio, SatelliteInternet over TV, Radio, Satellite Mutual Reinforcement Among MediaMutual Reinforcement Among Media Paper May Become Specialty ItemPaper May Become Specialty Item Not Only Human, but Computer Not Only Human, but Computer
InteractionInteraction
Internet and the MediaInternet and the Media
ACM 97
Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . . Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . . CombinedCombined
Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”?Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”? Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads?Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads? Speech Recognition - Narrow FocusSpeech Recognition - Narrow Focus Real Progress -- Easily Programmable Real Progress -- Easily Programmable
VCR!VCR!
Net Potato?Net Potato?
ACM 97
Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . . Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA. . . CombinedCombined
Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”?Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”? Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads?Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads? Speech Recognition - Narrow FocusSpeech Recognition - Narrow Focus Real Progress -- Easily Programmable Real Progress -- Easily Programmable
VCR!VCR!
Net Potato?Net Potato?
ACM 97
Multiparty Gaming CommonMultiparty Gaming Common Virtual Shopping, Banking & Virtual Shopping, Banking &
Learning Rapidly EvolveLearning Rapidly Evolve Advent of Digital ActorAdvent of Digital Actor Star Wars: The Special EditionStar Wars: The Special Edition Digital Characters Appear Across Digital Characters Appear Across
Variety of MediaVariety of Media
The Virtual LifestyleThe Virtual Lifestyle
ACM 97
Not Enough Addresses - IPV6Not Enough Addresses - IPV6 Inadequate Routing - Tag, IP Switching, Inadequate Routing - Tag, IP Switching,
CIDR, Flow Mgmt.CIDR, Flow Mgmt. Traffic - Faster FiberTraffic - Faster Fiber Expense - Competition, Usage-Based Expense - Competition, Usage-Based
PricingPricing Regulation, Censorship Won’t Work Regulation, Censorship Won’t Work
(Gilmore)(Gilmore)
Stumbling Blocks and Stumbling Blocks and SolutionsSolutions
ACM 97
More Devices Than People on the More Devices Than People on the InternetInternet
Computer Mediated Communication Computer Mediated Communication and Memory and Memory – Alzheimer’s, Vint’s Hard Disk and Alta Alzheimer’s, Vint’s Hard Disk and Alta
VistaVista Interaction of Intelligent Agents Interaction of Intelligent Agents
Throughout the NetworkThroughout the Network
OutcomesOutcomes
ACM 97
PredictionPrediction
I will not live to see whatI will not live to see what
happens in 2047, but Ihappens in 2047, but I
will live to regret thesewill live to regret these
timid future predictions!timid future predictions!