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Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in India: Ensuring no state falls behind
Shiladitya Chatterjee
99th Annual Conference of Indian Economic Association,
Tirupati, 27-29 December 2016
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Contents of Presentation
I. Introduction to the SDGs
II. India’s performance on the MDGs and its lessons for the SDGs
III. Eight policy priorities for lagging states
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The SDGs: Three pillars - economic, social and environmental GOAL 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere GOAL 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture GOAL 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages GOAL 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all GOAL 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls GOAL 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all GOAL 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all GOAL 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all GOAL 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation GOAL 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries GOAL 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable GOAL 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns GOAL 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts GOAL 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development GOAL 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss GOAL 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels GOAL 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development
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India’s final performance on the MDGs was mixed
4
Many states fell behind on the MDGs – this has to be avoided for the SDGs
0.813 0.790
0.736 0.719
0.694
0.659 0.658 0.650 0.627 0.626 0.616 0.609 0.603 0.592 0.585 0.584 0.577 0.565
0.530 0.506
0.466 0.464 0.452 0.451
0.426 0.398 0.396
0.342 0.313
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
Final ranking of states by MDG performance
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5 Main factors responsible for poor performance on MDGs – these are relevant for SDGs as well
• Lack of growth
• Insufficient prioritization of resources for human development
• Inefficient use of resources – poor service delivery
• Lack of basic infrastructure
• Lack of gender empowerment
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Growth and MDG Performance
AP
BR
CG
GA
GJ
HR
JH
KA
KL
MP
MH
OR
PB
RJ
TN
UP
WB
AR
AS
HP
JK MN
ML NL
SK
TR
UK
y = 0.046x + 0.34 R² = 0.29
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
MD
G P
erf
orm
ance
Ind
ex
Per Capita NSDP Average Growth Rate (1993-94 to 2012-13, constant prices)
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More priority to human development yielded better outcomes – Example: investments in public health infrastructure and health outcomes
KL
KA MH
TN HP AP JK
PB GJ OR HR
AS
CG WB
RJ MP
JH
BR UP
y = -0.01x + 64.86 R² = 0.51
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
He
alth
Ou
tco
me
Ind
ex
Persons per government hospital bed
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Efficiency of public services delivery (proxy MNREGA performance) and overall MDG performance
[CELLRANGE]
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[CELLRANGE]
y = 0.0005x + 0.4449 R² = 0.3743
0.25
0.35
0.45
0.55
0.65
0.75
0.85
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
MD
G P
erf
orm
ance
Ind
ex
Proportion of rural households provided work as proportion of rural poor households (%)
Performance of states on MNREGA 2012-13 and the MDG Performance Index
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Basic infrastructure crucial for MDGs – example: access to roads and attendance at births
AP
AS
BR
CG
GJ
HR
JK
JH
KA
KL
MP
MH
OR
PB
RJ
TN
UP
WB
R² = 0.5814
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel
Kilometres of roads per 10,000 population
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Dilemma of lagging states - daunting SDG challenges with large resource gaps for meeting them: example - Assam School Education Sector
Resource requirements and gaps (Rs. ‘000 crores)
2016-2019 2019-2022 2022-2025 2025-2028 2028-2030
Total budget requirement 68.4 55.4 58.0 60.9 47.5
Resource gap 23.5 18.9 21.0 23.2 18.5
Selected school education indicators of Assam
Baseline
2016-17
Target
2019-20
Target
2023-24
Target
2030-31
Net Enrol. Rate (Upper Primary) 67.54 72.54 100.00 100.0
Learning outcomes (Upper Primary) L-I Math Science
53.0
61.0
51.0
65.0
57.0
60.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0 100.0 100.0
Net Enrol. Rate (Secondary) 53.5 66.3 76.3 100.0
Learning outcomes (Secondary) NAS 2015 Score (core subjects)
38.0
55.0
100.0
100.0
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Policy options of lagging states for catching up on SDGs
1. Focus on all of these constraints which affected MDG performance as they will also be relevant for SDGs —However, many of these will take time to be achieved (e.g. growth, basic
infrastructure, women’s development etc.)
—What then are their policy options, in the medium term?
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Possible state strategies for the medium term
2. Maximize efforts at revenue augmentation
3. Prioritize expenditures towards SDGs —Develop outcome focused
budgets based on SDG outcomes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Kar
nat
aka
TN
Ker
ala
MP
An
dh
ra
Ch
atti
sgar
h
Pu
nja
b
UP
All
Mah
aras
htr
a
Gu
jara
t
Go
a
Har
yan
a
J&K
Raj
asth
an
Him
ach
al
Ori
ssa
Ass
am
Utt
arak
han
d
Bih
ar
Jhar
khan
d
WB
Meg
hal
aya
Trip
ura
Sikk
im
Man
ipu
r
Aru
nac
hal
Miz
ora
m
Nag
alan
d
Ranking of states by own tax revenue as percent of Gross State Domestic Product
(Average 2009-14)
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Possible state strategies for the medium term 4. Tackle inefficiencies in service delivery
— Through knowledge of and adopting good practices
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55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
Lite
racy
20
11
Per pupilpublic expenditure in elementary education (Rupeess thousand) 2009-10
Spending on elementary education and literacy outcome
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Possible state strategies for the medium term 5. Introduce policy,
organizational and institutional changes • Outcome focus rather than
sector focus —Requires new coordination
arrangements
• Paying heed to cross-cutting/thematic concerns
—Effective decentralization of service delivery
—Heeding needs of poor, women, deprived groups
—Encouraging participation • Private sector • Communities, civil society
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Possible state strategies for the medium term
6. Foster innovation —Example: use of ICT for telemedicine; virtual classrooms etc.
7. Expand partnerships —With private sector
• Through better use of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) funds
—Communities and civil society
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Central Government support will also be critical for lagging states
8. Actively seek support from national level
• There is strong rationale for Central Government role —Unanimous commitment by all countries – including India - in the United
Nations to achieving SDGs by 2030
• This implies responsibility of Centre to support states achieve SDGs also
—SDG Goal 10: Reduce inequality between and within countries
• Inequality between states’ SDG achievements needs to be eliminated too
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Several instruments exist at National level to assist lagging states
1. Support lagging states through Centrally Sponsored Schemes and Missions in critical SDG areas
—Similar to national missions in the MDG period such as NHM which proved quite successful
2. Finance Commission should consider equalizing SDG achievements in deciding allocation formula
3. More Central allocation of borrowings from international development institutions (e.g. ADB, BRICS Bank, AIB, WB etc.) for lagging states
4. Central policy incentives for greater private sector participation in lagging states
5. Central support in capacity development for lagging states —Statistical capacity —Knowledge and good practices
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References 1. Shiladitya Chatterjee, Matthew Hammill, Nagesh Kumar and Swayamsiddha Panda. An Assessment
of India’s Aggregative and Comparative States’ Performance on the Millennium Development Goals and Identification of Key Drivers of Inter-State Variations. Indian Economic Journal 64 (1&2) 2016.
2. Shiladitya Chatterjee, Matthew Hammill, Nagesh Kumar and Swayamsiddha Panda. Assessing India’s Progress in Achieving the Millennium Development Goals: Key Drivers of Inter-State Variations. Development Papers 1502. ESCAP South and Southwest Asia Office, New Delhi. Sept. 2015.
3. Shiladitya Chatterjee. Achieving the MDGs in the Least Developed Countries of Asia and the Pacific: Importance of Cross-sectoral and Cross-thematic Impacts. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok. 2015. (Report prepared for UN-ESCAP)
4. Shiladitya Chatterjee. Achieving the MDGs in the Least Developed Countries of Asia and the Pacific: Policies to Improve Cross-sectoral and Cross-thematic Synergies. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Bangkok. 2015. (Report prepared for UN-ESCAP).
5. Shiladitya Chatterjee. Roadmap for Implementing the 2030 Agenda in the Asia-Pacific Region: Sub Regional Study for South and Southwest Asia, 2016. (Paper prepared for Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok).
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