ACHIEVING ABSOLUTE INFLUENCEMichael Taillard

A BRIEF HISTORY OF WARFARE

Religion: Conversion, Ideological Disagreements, Angering God, “Us vs. Them” Manipulation by Religious LeadersPolitics: Rights to Control, Empire Building, Political Power

Color Code by Dominant Cause:

Economics: Resource Rights, Taxation, Socioeconomic Disparity

Culture: Misunderstanding and Mistrust from Ideas and Behaviors; Can’t See “Eye to Eye”

2003 AD

2001 AD1992 AD

1991 AD

1990 AD

1955 AD

1952 AD

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1948 AD

1927 AD1919 AD

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1879 AD

1879 AD1878 AD

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1853 AD

1825 AD1821 AD

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1728 AD

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1715 AD

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191 BC274 BC

2006 AD

2008 AD1998 AD

1980 AD

1982 AD

1961 AD

1979 AD

1954 AD

1946 AD

1939 AD

1936 AD

1919 AD

1899 AD

1876 AD

1867 AD

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1849 AD1846 AD1821 AD

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1810 AD1808 AD

1808 AD1804 AD

1689 AD1683 AD

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1655 AD1640 AD

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1618 AD1600 AD

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135 BC264 BC

1914 AD

1953 AD

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1899 AD1866 AD

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1846 AD1839 AD

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205 BC334 BC

1776 AD

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772 AD

533AD

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60AD

43AD

34 BC

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49 BC

53 BC

55 BC

58 BC

89 BC215 BC343 BC

395 BC

431 BC

499 BC

580 BC

1046 BC

1274 BC

THE EMERGING PATH

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20th CenturyAccurate Mathematical Forecasting Models

20th CenturyInformation Warfare and Hacking

2002Ray Gun

Developments in the Application of Social Sciences

2012 Lightning Gun

2012 “Zombie” Gun

WW2Formal Development of Psyops Program

21st CenturySociological Analytics, Modeling, and Engineering

21st CenturyTargeted Economic Combat

1960sPsychotronics

2008 – Plasma Acoustic Shield System

1990sDrones

Developments in the Application of Physical Sciences

>4th Millennia BC – Spear

16th Century BC – Bow and arrow

~5,000BC – Sword

5th Century BC – Catapult

1040AD – Gun Powder

1846AD – Modern Bullet

PSYCHOLOGY

Idea Modification – Methods which manage what people believe about themselves, about others, about the combat theater, and about reality.

Emotional Modification – Methods which manage the way people feel about things, their degree of motivation and morale, and their overall mental health and readiness.

Behavioral Modification – Methods which manage the way people behave, interact with each other, organize themselves, the decisions they make, and respond to their surrounding environment.

PSYCHOLOGY EXAMPLES

Idea Modification – The spread and evolution of competing ideas within the opposition can be managed to create schisms which can then be exploited to create social conflict, disrupting operations at least, and at best turning them against each other in an internal war of ideologies. This has been illustrated by the division between US Republican and Tea Parties, E. German labor disputes disrupting resource production, and mutinies throughout history.

PSYCHOLOGY EXAMPLESEmotional Modification – Marketing and public relations principles allow for the management of public opinion, starting with the Mohawk Valley Formula which made people fear and loathe union members, successfully breaking strikes in the early 20th century. Becoming more sophisticated since then, we can now condition disabling fear responses in the opposition, and optimize exit strategies by replacing the dominant traits and beliefs in the social landscape.

Behavioral Modification – People organize in standard and predictable ways to form organizations, allowing one to exploit both structure and operations. Generally applied to business management, isolating teams to implement functional change within the opposition can simply alter their course of action, overall plan, or cooperation with the opposition.

ECONOMICS

Supply Manipulation – Methods which manage the availability and distribution channels of resources, capital, and labor, thereby managing not only operational strength and functionality, but also incentive to make specific decisions.

Trade Manipulation – Methods which manage the terms and value of transactions and the ability of various parties to participate in those transactions, thus managing the strength and functionality of each player in a combat theater.

Market Manipulation – Methods which monitor market forces to extract intelligence, and manages those market forces to actions of others and to optimize one’s own strength.

ECONOMICS EXAMPLES

Supply Manipulation – The US Civil War was won by eliminating the South’s ability to fight. The South couldn’t fund their operations after the North blocked Southern shipments of cheap, high quality cotton to the European nations using blockades and psychological attacks discouraging nations from associating themselves with Southern slavery. Sherman’s March destroyed supply lines, while Lincoln’s cooperation with the rail companies ensured vast and diversified distribution channels.

ECONOMICS EXAMPLES

Trade Manipulation – Counterfeiting almost defeated the US during the Revolutionary Era, the Soviet-friendly Afghan government during the Cold War, and many others, by challenging the legitimacy and value of the currency, making it difficult for them to fund their operations. If they can source supplies at all, it is much more expensive. This makes them desperate and likely to overlook sabotaged or otherwise inferior goods, which can be supplied by one’s own covert allies, creating a power shift as one side benefits by the opposition’s detriment.

Market Manipulation – US intelligence agents in South America monitored the price of black market diamonds, and correlated price jumps to ships entering port to identify undercover Nazi operatives attempting to purchase them for tools and instruments. This method provides insight into actions and plans, allowing one to manage their action by incentive, and control the progression of the conflict.

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ANALYTICS

Descriptive Analytics – Methods which precisely assess what is currently happening, improving one’s ability to appropriately respond to it.

Predictive Analytics – Methods which predict what is going to happen, when and where it will happen, who will be involved, and the impact of the event on each party. This also allows one to manage the relevant variables to alter the future course of events.

Operational Analytics – Methods which identify the best possible course of action to take, maximize speed and efficiency, and optimize resource distribution and usage.

ANALYTICS EXAMPLES

Descriptive Analytics – Statistical tests commonly used in the hospitality industry precisely assess changes in the environment to accurately identify geographic points of strength or weakness, and are easily adapted for military purposes.

Predictive Analytics – 2012 marked the 10th consecutive year that Los Angeles reduced their crime rate using predictive policing, which utilizes very basic predictive modeling.-7.6% in 2008, -4.6% in 2011, -1.4% in 2012

Operational Analytics – Lean analytics common in manufacturing, when applied to combat, will not only improve speed and accuracy, but will also reduce risk exposure

SYNERGY

There is a very large number of methods, and many successful examples of each.

Each is effective in their own right, but far more so when utilized together.

The effects of one operation creates opportunities to utilize more operations.

Example – • Utilize predictive software, with behavioral and market intelligence• Allows one to identify the early development stages of a coordinated opposition• Manage regional economics to stymie group’s development and operations• Utilize psychological methods to demoralize & turn public against organization• Offer rewards and incentive for leaving opposition and/or joining allies• Spread cultural ideas and condition a positive emotional responses to your image• Foster a good brand, imposing services to resolve discontent & improve life quality• Network to gain support of individuals influential in strategic social circles• Alienate and label persistent individuals as threats, gaining domestic police support• Dismantle their desire to fight, with isolated violence managed by domestic forces

PLANS

• Expand on that which is already proven effective by researching and developing new methods

• Custom-design strategies for use specifically by, and exclusively for each force

• Develop extensive series of planned responses to common military encounters and goals

• Directly supplement traditional military operations, then gradually replace them, slowly over time

These 3 books are merely a proof-of-concept historical review. The real work is just beginning.

RESULTS

• Increased efficacy and decreased resource utilization, thereby increasing total strength

• Minimized exposure of soldiers and resources to high risk scenarios

• Elimination of collateral damage and civilian casualties

• Exert invisible influence across globe

• Increased speed, accuracy, and efficiency in accomplishing military goals

• End conflicts before they begin, and dismantle opposition forces before they organize

• Improved global image by contributing to reduced deaths and image of world peace

• Improve response to international conflict subject to volatility or political sensitivity

Repurpose & rebrand the military from an organization that fights wars to one that ends wars

CLOSING THOUGHTS

“Weapons, being instruments of ill omen, are not the tools of the cultured, who use them only when unavoidable, and consider it best to be aloof. They win without beautifying it: Those who beautify it enjoy killing people. Those who enjoy killing people cannot get their will of the world.” -Laozi

“Those who win every battle are not really skillful—those who render others’ armies helpless without fighting are the best of all.” -Sun Tzu

Using force it is only possible to subdue one’s enemy, and little will have been accomplished once you have left. To win the war, the prevailing ideas and attitudes in the region must undergo a fundamental change that allows for sustained stability. This can only be accomplished using methods made available through the social sciences. This is how one successfully exerts their will on a global scale.

People must believe that they want what you are offering them. They will not respect one who brings war to their home. You must inspire them, offer them peace and prosperity, and operate in such a manner that they believe it is possible. Be the savior, not the soldier.