accounting for the in-stability of authoritarian regimes evidence from east asia and sub -saharan...

8/11/2019 Accounting for the in-Stability of Authoritarian Regimes Evidence From East Asia and Sub -Saharan Africa Lambach_apsa_2009

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Accounting for the (In-)Stability of Authoritarian Regimes:

Evidence from East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa

Christian Gbel*, Daniel Lambach

Paper prepared for the APSA Annual Meeting !!",

#oronto, $% September !!"&

Draft ' Please do not cite or (uote&

) e than+ Aleandra -essler for her research assistance and Andr. /an+, #homas 0eberer, 1ulia Leininger, theparticipants of the 2or+shop 3Authoritarian Consolidation3 in Duisburg, 45$46 Ma7 !!" and the participants ofthe 89:; research seminar for useful comments on pre


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1 Introduction

8t is perhaps no coincidence that trends of 2ide$spread democratisation ha


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ser


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8n the tas+ of tr7ing to find out 2h7 some authoritarian regimes are more resilient than others,

much is to learn from loo+ing at the etensi


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and social elites agree on the nature of the political s7stem and see+ to impro


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personal eperiences but also, and perhaps mainl7, b7 discourses 2ithin peer groups, media

reports, statements b7 political elites etc&

;or these reasons, 2e understand authoritarian consolidation not as largel7 self$referential

processes ta+ing place in each of the three le


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igure 1: democratic and authoritarian consolidation

;inall7, the third arena is de


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po2er3 2hich regimes can dra2 on to achie


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independence, ?4"56$4"5"@, then parliamentar7 ?4"6!$4"6E@ and finall7 3guided3 democrac7

?4"6E$4"%6@ under the Su+arno regime, a leadership change too+ place& #he ! 7ears under

Su+arno 2ere characterised b7 dismal economic performance, lo2 etracti


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Institutionalisation

Se


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called Local Councils@ that function as bodies of grassroots democrac7 in e


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criticism b7 the opposition 2ho labeled it as a de factosingle part7& :lite coherence began to brea+

do2n in the late 4""!s as the discontent 2ith the regimes obstruction of further democratiHation

led to a fractionaliHation of the political elite&64Since then, there ha


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be sure, he points out that as a general tendenc7 departmental insularit7 promotes organisation$

specific interests at the cost of societal benefit, that corruption is 2ide$spread, that the

performance e


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of the political class into his


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;inall7, on the le


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po2er is to get the citiHens to 2ant 2hat the regime 2ants them to 2ant& #his is closel7 tied to

Lu+es 3radical


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reached, the central go


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igure !: +o dimensions of "oer (can) reinforce each other

8n his initial design of the component parts of 3autonomous state po2er3, Mann alread7 stressed

that the eistence of infrastructural po2er ?8P@ ma7 be a necessar7 precondition to the successful

application of despotic po2er ?DP@& Put simpl7, 2ithout the monitoring capacities that result from8P, the despots might find themsel


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factories, or indi


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Samuel 0untington more than four decades ago is that man7, indeed perhaps most institutions

necessar7 for the consolidation of a democrac7 also need to be present in authoritarian regimes&

8n addition, 2e ha


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ibliogra"hy

Anderson, /enedict =& 4"I&Imagined Communities : Reflections on the Origin and Spread ofNationalism,LondonB Nerso&

Apter, DagandaB A Case for Comparison& 8nB Daedalus 45?@B466$4"!&

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/arrios, 0arald& 4"""& 3-onsolidierung Der Demo+ratieB Qur SubstanH :ines StrapaHierten -on$Hepts3& 8nB /odemer, -laus et al& ?eds&@B"atainamerika #ahr$uch% ;ran+furtM&B Nerni


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Gbel, Christian& !!"& 38ntrago


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-ipnis, Andre2& 4""6& 3ithin and against Peasantness& /ac+2ardness and ;ilialit7 in =ural Chi$na3, Comparative Studies in Societ and !istor E ?4@, 44!$6&

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Donnell, GuillermoNalenHuela, Arturo ?eds&@BIssues in *emocratic Consolidation: &he Ne.South American *emocracies in Comparative Perspective%9otre DameB >niganda&8nB Comparati


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