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Simon F Pickup

Marketing Operations Director, Airbus Americas

ACC / BAG Global Business Summit

Growing HorizonsAirbus - Global Market Forecast2017 - 2036

Month 20XX Use Tab 'Insert - Header & Footer' for Presentation Title - Siglum - Reference

Presentation content

Global economy/airline industry status

How we make the forecast: video infographic

Global Market Forecast highlights

Focus on the USA and Europe

Air transport growing faster than GDP

Pax: +7.5%

Cargo: +9.5%

GDP: +3.1%

Source: Traffic: IATA early estimation, TBC

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Passenger capacity growth, by world regionDecember 2017 data

US AIRLINES (~20% of capacity) WESTERN EUROPEAN AIRLINES (~20% of capacity)

ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)EMERGING ECONOMIES* AIRLINES (~40% of capacity)

2015 2016 2017 2018

REST OF WORLD AIRLINES (~20% of capacity)

Source: OAG, * 54 emerging economies, Airbus

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%


ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%



2015 2016 2017 2018

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%



2015 2016 2017 2018

Dec. passenger capacity up

8.0%


1.4%


7.8%


3.7%

Profitability forecast for 2018 – but vigilance needed as we look ahead

$38.4

billion

2018 IATA

net profit forecast

Fuel prices

Labor costs and

shortages

Exchange rates GeopoliticsTrade tensions

Terrorism

Infrastructure bottlenecks

Protectionism

Extreme

weather

Growing HorizonsGlobal Market Forecast2017 - 2036

pdf content and

Excel spreadsheets

www.airbus.com

Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre

Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF

8

World annual traffic (trillion RPKs)Oil Crisis Gulf WarOil Crisis

AsianCrisis 9/11 SARS

GlobalFinancial

Crisis

x2since 9/11

+60%growth over the

last 10 years

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Traffic doubles every 15 years


Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017

9

World annual traffic (trillion RPKs)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

x2

x2

x2

Airbus GMF 2017: 4.4% growth p.a.ICAO total traffic

4 minute video infographic on how we make the GMF

10

ADD VIDEO in situ

Global Market Forecast 2017: Highlights

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes)

Source: Airbus GMF 2017

11

World Fleet Forecast 2016 2036

RPK (trillions) 7.0 16.5

Passenger Aircraft Fleet 18,890 40,120

New passenger aircraft deliveries

34,166

Dedicated Freighters 1,610 2,410

New freighter aircraft deliveries

733

% change

2016-2036

+135%

+112%

+50%

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)Source: Airbus GMF 2017

20-year demand from all OEMs

24,800single-aisle aircraft

8,700twin-aisle aircraft

1,400very large aircraft

Almost 35,000new passenger and freighter aircraft with a market valueof $5.3 trillion

Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies represent 54% of value

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10


13

Number of aircraft

24,810

8,690

1,410

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft

% units 71% 25% 4%

% value 46% 44% 10%

Passenger aircraft demand by neutral seating capacity

Source: Airbus

GMF

14

20 year new deliveries

1,297

3,157

7,404

8,353

4,596

2,694 2,789

1,5661,126 1,184

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+

US$ 2.4 trillion US$ 2.2 trillionUS$

0.5 trillion

Global passenger and cargo fleet in-service evolution

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10


15

Number of aircraft*

20,500

7,630

12,870

22,030

34,900

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Beginning 2017 2036 New Deliveries

20-year

new deliveries

Replacement (37%)

Growth (63%)

Stay

42,530

16

Regions ranked by fleet percentage growth 2017-2036:

1) Middle East

2) Asia-Pacific

3) Africa

4) Latin America

5) CIS

6) Europe

7) North America

Asia-Pacific dominates global fleet in 20 years

Fleet (units) (Percentages refer to unit growth 2017->2036)


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,0002036

2017

+169%

+146%+111% +156%

+171%

+43%

+73%

Global passenger fleet in-service by region evolution

Demand for passenger aircraft by region and aircraft size category

Source: Airbus GMF17

Pie charts show the relative demand of Single-Aisle (blue), Twin Aisle (silver) and VLA (red) in a given region

85%

14%

1%

5,620 a/c (16%)

77%

21%

2%

6,820 a/c (20%)

69%

27%

4%

14,280 a/c (41%)

78%

21%

2,670 a/c (8%)

1%

781 828 850 865 859

73 144 216 322 456501

981

1,822

2,695

3,624

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1996e** 2006 2016 2026 2036

Middle Class to almost double over the next 20 years

Rounded total to nearest 50

* Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2016 prices

** Estimate for 1996 split by region

Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF

18

People in Middle Class* (million)

Emerging countries

Developing countries

Advanced countries

8,900

56%

World Population (M.)

% of world population

8,200

47%

7,430

39%

6,600

30%

5,820

23%

Forecast

4,950

3,900

2,900

1,950

1,350

~30% of the people from emerging countries took a flight in 2016…

Source: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 201719

2016 trips per capita

2016 real GDP per capita(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

Africa

Asia/Pacific

CIS

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

India, 2016

0.1 trips per capita

India, 2016


China, 2016


United States, 2016


Bubble size proportional to population

… in 2036, it will be 83% of the population in emerging countries

Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 201720

Africa

Asia/Pacific

CIS

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2036 trips per capita

2036 real GDP per capita(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

India, 2036


China, 2036


United States, 2036


Bubble size proportional to population

Asia-Pacific continues to grow in importance


Traffic by airline domicile (trillion RPKs)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

Share of

2036 RPKs

38%

21%

16%

13%

5%

4%

3%

2016 traffic 2017-2036 traffic

Share of

2016 RPKs

30%

26%

22%

10%

5%

4%

3%

Domestic Chinese traffic will overtake the US domestic industry


Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017

22

Annual traffic per leg flow

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

South America - USA

Intra-Middle East

Domestic Brazil

Asia Developped - PRC

Asia Developped - Asia Emerging

Western Europe - South America

Central Europe - Western Europe

Western Europe - PRC

Asia Emerging - PRC

Asia Emerging - Middle East

PRC - USA

Domestic India

Indian Subcontinent - Middle East

Middle East - USA

Domestic Asia Emerging

Western Europe - Middle East

Intra-Western Europe

Western Europe - USA

Domestic USA

Domestic PRC

Trillions RPKs

2016

2036

x3.6x1.5

x1.8x1.6

x2.5x3.7

x4.5x3.4

x5.4x3.6

x3.4x3.8

x2.2x2.6

x2.0x2.5x3.0x2.6x3.1x2.3

Traffic between emerging markets will represent a higher share of world traffic

Source: Airbus 2017 GMF23

Traffic share (%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2036

Advanced-Advanced

Advanced-Emerging

Emerging-Emerging

41%28%

30%32%

40%29%

CAGR: 2.5%

CAGR: 4.8%

CAGR: 6.2%

United States2017 - 2036

Inter-regional markets from/to US forecast to grow at 4.0% p.a.O&D passenger traffic forecast – 2016-2036 CAGR from/to/within USA

4.8%

Africa

1.8%

Domestic & Intra-

Regional North America

5.0%

Asia-Pacific

4.4%

CIS

3.8%

Europe

3.6%

Latin America

6.6%

Middle East

Africa

4.9%

Asia-Pacific

5.0%

CIS

4.5%

Europe

4.0%

Latin America

3.5%

Middle East

6.8%

2.5%

4.0%

1.8%

Total

International

Domestic

North America

2.0%

O&D: Origin and destination


Domestic USA

1.8%

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

South Africa - USA, x2.7

North Africa - USA, x2.5

Russia - USA, x2.4

CIS - USA, x2.4

Sub-Saharan Africa - USA, x2.6

Pacific Australia/New-Zealand - USA, x1.9

Central Europe - USA, x2.4

Asia Emerging - USA, x2.6

Central America - USA, x2.3

Indian Subcontinent - USA, x3.4

Middle East - USA, x3.7

Asia Developed - USA, x2.2

PRC - USA, x3.3

Canada - USA, x1.5

Caribbean - USA, x1.7

South America - USA, x2.3

Mexico - USA, x2

Western Europe - USA, x2.2

Domestic USA, x1.4

Million passengers

2016

Additional traffic in 2036

Almost 70% of US traffic growth will come from the top 3 regional-pairs


TOP O&D passengers traffic flows from/to/within USARatio

2036 vs. 2016

US - There are currently 11 Aviation Mega-Cities

Source: Oxford Economics, Sabre, Airbus GMF 201727

• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers



11Aviation

Mega-cities

190kDaily Passengers:

Long-Haul traffic to/

from/via Mega-Cities

95%of long-haul traffic

on routes to/from/via

Mega-Cities

2016 Aviation Mega-Cities

US - There will be 16 Aviation Mega-Cities by 2036






16Aviation

Mega-cities






Mega-Cities

+ 5

x 2.1

+ 3%

Europe2017 - 2036

Inter-regional markets from/to Europe forecast to grow at 4.1% p.a.O&D passenger traffic forecast – 2016-2036 CAGR from/to/within Europe

North America

3.8%

Middle East

4.2%

Latin America

3.3%

Africa

4.4%

Domestic & Intra-

Regional Europe

2.7%

Asia-Pacific

4.3%

CIS

4.1%

3.2%

4.1%

2.7%

Total

Inter-regional

Domestic & Intra-regional

O&D: Origin and destination


More than 50% of European traffic growth coming from the yop 3 regional pairs


TOP 20 O&D passengers traffic flows from/to/within Europe

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Central Europe - Russia, x2.1

Central Europe - USA, x2.4

Caribbean - Western Europe, x1.8

Central Europe - Middle East, x3.5

Western Europe - Pacific Australia/New-Zealand, x2.2

CIS - Western Europe, x2.4

Canada - Western Europe, x1.6

Asia Developed - Western Europe, x1.8

Western Europe - Indian Subcontinent, x2.2

Western Europe - South America, x1.9

Sub-Saharan Africa - Western Europe, x2.3

Western Europe - Russia, x2.2

Western Europe - PRC, x2.7

Asia Emerging - Western Europe, x2.5

Western Europe - North Africa, x2.3

Western Europe - Middle East, x2.2

Western Europe - USA, x2.2

Domestic Western Europe, x1.4

Central Europe - Western Europe, x2.5

Western Europe - Western Europe, x1.6

Million passengers

2016

Additional traffic in 2036

Ratio

2036 vs. 2016

Highest traffic growth from/to/within Europe will be on inter-regional flowsLeg RPK traffic forecast – 2016-2036 CAGR from/to/within Europe

2.9%

North America4.7%

Middle East

3.3%

Latin America

3.5%

Africa

2.9%

Domestic & Intra-

Regional Europe

3.3%

Asia-Pacific

3.9%

CIS

3.3%

3.5%

2.9%

Total

Inter-regional

Domestic & Intra-regional


Europe - There are currently 12 Aviation Mega-Cities





12Aviation

Mega-cities






Mega-Cities


Europe - There will be 22 Aviation Mega-Cities by 2036






22Aviation

Mega-cities






Mega-Cities

+ 10

x 2

+ 3%

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