absence and attainment at key stage 4 (new analysis of the national pupil database) jo hutchinson,...

Absence and Attainment at Key Absence and Attainment at Key Stage 4Stage 4

(New analysis of the National (New analysis of the National Pupil Database)Pupil Database)

Jo Hutchinson, Schools Analysis & Research [email protected]

21 November 2008

Standards & Delivery Analysis Unit

Overview

• Background– Absence distribution in

secondary schools and at KS4– Absence over the Key Stage

• What is the link between absence and attainment at KS4?

• Are all types of absence equally linked to attainment?

• Is the relationship the same for all groups of pupils?

• Is absence still linked to attainment when we control for other established factors, or is it just a proxy?

• Where next for the analysis of absence and attainment?


Essential absence facts – the distribution


Background – persistence of absence over the Key Stage


Autumn 2006

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Summer 2006

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•Unsurprisingly, absence is correlated over time

•Comparing all possible pairs of terms, the strongest correlations are within-year (autumn 2006 and spring 2007 = 0.70**)

•The weakest correlation was between spring 2006 and the previous summer 2006 (0.48**)

•Initial tests showed the strongest relationships between absence and KS4 attainment were found using absence across the whole Key Stage

•Subsequent analysis reflects absence levels over the Key Stage (Autumn 2005 – Spring 2007 inclusive) and attainment in 2007

KS4 Absence and Attainment – is the expected link established within the national data?


What does GCSE attainment look like for Persistent Absentees?


Are all types of absence equally linked to attainment?


Is the relationship the same for all groups of pupils?


Will tackling absence narrow the gaps?


Controlling for established factors in pupil progress – is absence just a proxy?


How big is the difference in attainment?

• Penalty of 3 GCSE points for a 1% increase in absence over the Key Stage – 6 points = 1 grade in 1 GCSE subject– FSM eligible -25 points– SEN at School Action Plus/Statement -64 points– Girls +15 points– Area of low deprivation +5 points


What does this look like for persistent absentees rather than at the margin?


Where next for this analysis?

• Other Key Stages• Absence and progression to A-level• Absence, Attainment and LSYPE

– attitudes and beliefs– risky behaviours

• Modelling the likelihood of developing persistent absence


absence and attainment at key stage 4 (new analysis of the national pupil database) jo hutchinson,...

Documents

analysis of absence

ks4 absence

types of absence

absence levels

level absence

new analysis

essential absence facts

key stages absence