abo4o1 life cycle
DESCRIPTION
Different perspectives- intended to enable a discussion, not to inform.TRANSCRIPT
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Session Agenda C6
1.Video 2.Presentations (4) Host Europe3.Case review: Stakeholders & their interests4.Toolbox: Life Cycles
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Cons
ultin
g Pr
ojec
t Man
agem
ent
4
ExecuteResource
Negotiate& Initiate
Project Life Cycle:Process Groups
START:Client Needs?
Control
SelectConsultant
Plan
Complete& Close
Evaluation:Needs Met?
Post-ProjectReview (~1yr)
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Overlap of Process Groups in a Phase
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Built Environment: from Cradle-to-Grave
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definition of life cycle costing
Life cycle costing is:• an economic evaluation method• that accounts for all relevant costs• over the investment’s time horizon,• adjusted for time value of money,
where appropriate
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Another Life Cycle
• Why do we want to count?• What do we want to count?• How are we going to count it?• Available data? Estimating?
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European standards: Building Construction
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Carbon Life Cycle – Data structure
Embodied carbon – •Resource extraction •Transportation, manufacturing and fabrication of a product (typically ‘cradle-to-factory gate’). •Can include energy used during the design and end-of-life stages
Operational carbon – Emissions from energy consumed once the building is occupied;• lighting, •Heating,•cooling, •ICT.
Construction carbon – •Construction site machinery•Site huts•Transport
Accuracy levels
+ /- 20-30% + /- 5% + /- 15%-70%
1-2%Total Emissions
15-30%
3-4%
5-6% 50-70% 2-4%
Source: IGT/F+G
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a “Carbon Footprint or Carbon Profile equals the overall amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (e.g. methane, NOx, etc.) associated with a product along its supply-chain, including use and end-of-life recovery and disposal….. “
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Definition used in UK construction industry
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• Embodied carbon – the sum of fuel related carbon emissions (i.e. embodied energy which is combusted – but not feedstock energy retained within building material) and process related carbon emissions (i.e. non-fuel related emissions which may arise, for example, from chemical reactions).”
The Inventory of Carbon and Energy (ICE V2.0)as published by University of Bath, January 2011
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Carbon counting
To use this data you need to measure the weight of the different materials in a building. There are two options for using the data:
1. Transform it into values for products in the units in which they are procured and use existing estimating measurement rules.
2. Produce a database to estimate weights of materials which may need a whole new set of rules of measurement and procedures
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why do we need LCC?
A dog is for life and not just for Christmas 14
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Bonus Toolbox: The Wisdom of Crowds
If people do not hear the opinions of others, or if they render their true predictions anyway crowds can be incredibly wise.
James Suroweicki
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Suroweicki’s ExamplesMorton Thiokol’s stock plunge
Prediction Markets
Hollywood Stock Exchange
Iowa Electronic Market
Sports Betting Markets
Who Wants to be a Millionaire?
1906 West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition
Michigania 02005
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The Madness of Crowds: true or false?
We tend to think of crowds of people as irrational mobs.
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IQ Diversity: which group performs better at estimation?
138
75
121 84
Alpha Group Diverse Group
132 135
139
135
137
135
111
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In Praise of Experts?
Theorem: If an expert can integrate every variable considered by any one of the novices, the expert predicts better than the crowd of novices. Else, the crowd of novices will prevail.