aag ny 2012
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Climate
Des+na+ons AAG Annual Mee+ng, NY 2012 Lars Böcker
&
• Background • Methodology
• Climate change and the par+cipa+on into various ac+vi+es
• Climate change effects on selected des+na+on loca+on: -‐in terms of travelled trip-‐distance -‐in terms of urbaniza+on degree
• Discussion, conclusion and research outlook
Contents
• Extensive knowledge on weather and travel +mes / mode choices and on climate and tourism
• Less aOen+on for daily ac+vi+es and des+na+ons • Overemphasis on weather extremes; less aOen+on for recurring
everyday weather condi+ons
• Geographical contexts: extensive knowledge on urban micro-‐climates, but hardly in rela+on to ac+vity/travel behaviours
• Only few studies that directly link to climate change
• Böcker, Dijst & Prillwitz (submiOed) “Impact of weather on travel behaviour in perspec+ve: a literature review”
Background
Methodology
• Selec+on of seasons within the last decade represen+ng current climate
• Selec+on of seasons within the last decade represen+ng projected 2050 climate
• Analyzing mobility paOerns in different geographical contexts
• Dutch Na+onal Travel Survey
• Böcker, Prillwitz & Dijst (submiOed) “Climate Change Impacts on Mode Choices and Travelled Distances: A Comparison of Present with 2050 Weather Condi+ons for the Randstad Holland”
Methodology Spring -‐Warmer -‐Overall weOer Autumn -‐Warmer -‐Rain falls over fewer days
Winter -‐Milder -‐Overall weOer -‐Heavier precipita+on
Summer -‐HoOer -‐Longer dry periods -‐Heavier rain showers
Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance n=6989
social visit n=6530
work/study n=11421
shopping n=6044
picking up n=3856
leisure other n=4426
leisure touring n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%
Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance n=6989
social visit n=6530
work/study n=11421
shopping n=6044
picking up n=3856
leisure other n=4426
leisure touring n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%
Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance n=6989
social visit n=6530
work/study n=11421
shopping n=6044
picking up n=3856
leisure other n=4426
leisure touring n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%
Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance n=6989
social visit n=6530
work/study n=11421
shopping n=6044
picking up n=3856
leisure other n=4426
leisure touring n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%
Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
maintenance n=6989
social visit n=6530
work/study n=11421
shopping n=6044
picking up n=3856
leisure other n=4426
leisure touring n=4327
winter spring summer autumn
%
Results: ac+vity types
Winter Spring Summer Autumn All seasons
Work/study -‐ -‐ + -‐ -‐ Maintenance -‐ -‐ -‐ 0 -‐ Picking up + + -‐ + + Social visit + -‐ -‐ + + Leisure touring + + -‐ -‐ + Leisure shopping -‐ -‐ + + -‐ Leisure other -‐ -‐ + + -‐ All trips + -‐ + + +
OLS regression: Climate change effects on travelled distance per trip
+/-‐ = significant at .05
Results: trip distances Percent changes in trip distance for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
work/study n=11421
social visit n=6530
maintenance n=6989
picking up n=3856
shopping n=6044
touring n=4327
leisure other n=4426
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
%
Results: trip distances Percent changes in trip distance for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
work/study n=11421
social visit n=6530
maintenance n=6989
picking up n=3856
shopping n=6044
touring n=4327
leisure other n=4426
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
%
Results: trip distances Percent changes in trip distance for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
work/study n=11421
social visit n=6530
maintenance n=6989
picking up n=3856
shopping n=6044
touring n=4327
leisure other n=4426
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
%
Results: trip distances Percent changes in trip distance for different ac+vity types (2050 compared to present)
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
work/study n=11421
social visit n=6530
maintenance n=6989
picking up n=3856
shopping n=6044
touring n=4327
leisure other n=4426
Winter Spring Summer Autumn
%
Results: ac+vity types
Winter Spring Summer Autumn All seasons
Work/study + -‐ + + + Maintenance -‐ + -‐ + -‐ Picking up -‐ -‐ -‐ + -‐ Social visit + -‐ -‐ + -‐ Leisure touring -‐ + -‐ -‐ + Leisure shopping -‐ -‐ + + -‐ Leisure other -‐ -‐ -‐ + -‐ All trips -‐ -‐ -‐ + -‐
Nega+ve binomial models: Climate change effects on # trips/person/day
+/-‐ = significant at .05
Results: des+na+on address density Climate change effect on the number of trips per person per day towards des+na+ons of different address density
-25
0
25
50
75
100
>3500 2000-3500 1400-2000 700-1400 <700
Example: Touring in winter %
Winter -‐ Leisure touring increase is stronger for rural and suburban des+na+ons; no effect for urban des+na+ons Summer -‐ Leisure touring decrease is strongest for highly urbanized innercity des+na+ons -‐ Leisure-‐shopping increase is stronger for the more urban than for the more suburban/rural des+na+ons -‐ Leisure-‐other increase is stronger for rural/suburban des+na+ons
Results: des+na+on address density
Conclusion & discussion • Insight into the impact of (changing) recurring climate
condi+ons on des+na+on choices • Importance of geographical contexts
• Des+na+on choices interrelated with mode choices
• Implica+ons for planning, health, retail & hospitality industry • Limi+ons of the data:
-‐no clear dis+nc+on indoor/outdoor des+na+ons -‐seasonal level -‐geographical context limited to degree of urbaniza+on
• Next step: Ac+vity diaries -‐situa+onal approach -‐subjec+ve interpreta+ons of weather -‐different residen+al environments, dis+nc+ve microclimates
