aae 450 spring 2008 stephen bluestone february 28, 2008 propulsion group historic solid rocket...

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AAE 450 Spring 2008 Stephen Bluestone February 28, 2008 Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

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Page 1: AAE 450 Spring 2008 Stephen Bluestone February 28, 2008 Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

AAE 450 Spring 2008

Stephen BluestoneFebruary 28, 2008Propulsion Group

Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

Page 2: AAE 450 Spring 2008 Stephen Bluestone February 28, 2008 Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

Historical Failure Probability U.S. Solid Rocket Systems (Failures/Attempts)

– 6 / 412 (1.4%) Failures between 1980-20041

– 19 / 3382 (0.56%) Failures between 1964-19982

Solid Propulsion Failure Rates (Failures/Attempts)

– Upper Stage 0.0161 161/10000

– Monolithic 0.0025 25/10000– Segmented 0.0077 77/10000– Total 0.0056 56/10000

AAE 450 Spring 2008Propulsion – Propellants

Page 3: AAE 450 Spring 2008 Stephen Bluestone February 28, 2008 Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

Catastrophic Failure Historically Solid Rocket failure results in

catastrophic failure 37% of the time (19 solid failures, 7 were catastrophic) [1964-1998]1

Solid Rocket Failure Rate (Failures/Attempts)

– Failure 0.0056, 56/10000– Catastrophic Failure 0.0021, 21/10000

Working with Prop and whole team to finalize all designs and prop systems

AAE 450 Spring 2008Propulsion - Propellants

Future Work

Page 4: AAE 450 Spring 2008 Stephen Bluestone February 28, 2008 Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

References1. Chang, I-Shih., Tomei, Edmardo Joe., “Solid

Rocket Failures in World Space Launches.” AIAA Paper 2005-3793, Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, 41st, Tuscon, Az, July 10-13, 2005

2. Sauvageu, Donald R., Allen, Brian D., “Launch Vehicle Historical Reliability.” AIAA-1998-3979 AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, 34th, Cleveland, OH, July 13-15, 1998

AAE 450 Spring 2008

Page 5: AAE 450 Spring 2008 Stephen Bluestone February 28, 2008 Propulsion Group Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability

Reference 2 is based off a study of the following U.S. solid rocket launch systems included– Taurus– Conestoga– Athena– Minotaur– Pegasus– Scout