aae 450 spring 2008 stephen bluestone february 28, 2008 propulsion group historic solid rocket...
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AAE 450 Spring 2008
Stephen BluestoneFebruary 28, 2008Propulsion Group
Historic Solid Rocket Failure Probability
Historical Failure Probability U.S. Solid Rocket Systems (Failures/Attempts)
– 6 / 412 (1.4%) Failures between 1980-20041
– 19 / 3382 (0.56%) Failures between 1964-19982
Solid Propulsion Failure Rates (Failures/Attempts)
– Upper Stage 0.0161 161/10000
– Monolithic 0.0025 25/10000– Segmented 0.0077 77/10000– Total 0.0056 56/10000
AAE 450 Spring 2008Propulsion – Propellants
Catastrophic Failure Historically Solid Rocket failure results in
catastrophic failure 37% of the time (19 solid failures, 7 were catastrophic) [1964-1998]1
Solid Rocket Failure Rate (Failures/Attempts)
– Failure 0.0056, 56/10000– Catastrophic Failure 0.0021, 21/10000
Working with Prop and whole team to finalize all designs and prop systems
AAE 450 Spring 2008Propulsion - Propellants
Future Work
References1. Chang, I-Shih., Tomei, Edmardo Joe., “Solid
Rocket Failures in World Space Launches.” AIAA Paper 2005-3793, Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, 41st, Tuscon, Az, July 10-13, 2005
2. Sauvageu, Donald R., Allen, Brian D., “Launch Vehicle Historical Reliability.” AIAA-1998-3979 AIAA/ASME/SAE/ASEE Joint Propulsion Conference and Exhibit, 34th, Cleveland, OH, July 13-15, 1998
AAE 450 Spring 2008
Reference 2 is based off a study of the following U.S. solid rocket launch systems included– Taurus– Conestoga– Athena– Minotaur– Pegasus– Scout