ยานยนต์ไฟฟ้า ศักยภาพและ ......•sales 1,041,739 1.05...

ยานยนต์ไฟฟ้า: ศักยภาพและอัจฉริยภาพของประเทศไทย

นายศุภรัตน์ ศิริสุวรรณางกูร

ที่ปรึกษาบริหารอาวุโส

บริษัท โตโยต้า มอเตอร์ ประเทศไทย จ ากัด

วันที่ 3 กรกฎาคม 2562

START YOUR IMPOSSIBLE

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019F …

20XX

Thousands

Production

Domestic Sales

Export

Y1998Tom-Yum Goong

Y2011TH-Flood

JP-Tsunami

Y2014TH-Political

Crisis

Export2018Export 53%

Challenge to 3 Million units in 20XX

Domestic

Y2009Hamburger

3rd Milestone

3 Million

2nd Milestone

2 Million

1st Milestone

1 Million

2018 2019 (Forecast)

• Production 2,167,694 2.15 Mil. units

• Sales 1,041,739 1.05 Mil. units

• Export 1,140,640 1.10 Mil. units

THAI AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY SITUATION

2

Production 2019 (Jan-May)

473,268

48%

522,689

52%

Export Domestic

Production 2019 (Jan-May)995,957 units

Domestic Export

Source:Automotive Industry Club 3


Domestic Sales 2019 (Jan-May)

Domestic Sales 2019 (Jan-May)438,025 units

Pickup

Passenger car

Source : Automotive Industry Club4


171,501

39%

266,524

61%

PC CV

Passenger Car

Commercial Car

Export 2019 (Jan-May)

Export 2019 (Jan-May)462,239 units

Pickup

Passenger car

Source : Automotive Industry Club5


163,515

35%

298,724

65%

P-Car P/U & PPV

P-CarP/U & PPV

6

GLOBAL PRODUCTION

Source : Automotive Industry Club

27.80

11.31

9.73

5.17 5.124.10 4.03

2.88 2.822.27 2.16 2.02 1.77 1.60 1.55 1.35 1.34

Production 2018 (Jan-Dec) = 2,167,694 units

No. 11th ranking in the WorldNo. 5th ranking in ASIANo. 1st ranking in ASEAN

Global Production 2018 (Jan-Dec)

= 95,634,593 units

7

GLOBAL SALES

Source : Automotive Industry Club

28.04

17.66

5.274.40

3.832.78 2.69 2.57 2.12 2.04 2.01 1.89 1.45 1.32 1.07 1.06 1.04 0.68 0.61 0.58

Sales 2018 (Jan-Dec) = 1,040,000 unitsNo. 17th ranking in the World

No. 6th ranking in ASIANo. 2rd ranking in ASEAN

Global Sales 2018 (Jan-Dec)

= 90,280,000 units

- Projected Alternative Light-Duty Vehicle Sales -(During 2000 – 2050)

Alternative Energy Vehicles are on the move and will increase rapidly beyond 2020

MAJOR GLOBAL CHALLENGES

Source: IEA, 2016 8

Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint (TIEB) - MoEN

Source: MoEN

Target plan under TIEB, expected to have LDV Stock~1.2 million units in 2036

9

GLOBAL BEV SITUATION

Annual global EV sales (LDV)

10

Annual global light duty vehicle sales

By 2040, 54% of new car sales will be electric

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric

Vehicle Outlook 2019


China, the U.S. and Europe make up over 60%

of the global EV market in 2040.

Annual global EV sales by market

11Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Electric



BEV sales will be leading by China, Europe and U.S.

Short & Long-term EV sales penetration by country




Global passenger EV sale by region




Global passenger EV sale by drivetrain




Cumulative passenger EV, electric bus and electric truck sales



• EV starts from 2018 with 1% annual growth rate till 1.2 million EVs in 2036

• EV targeted to replace gasoline car

THAILAND ENERGY EFFICIENCY PLAN (2015) - EEP

Source: EPPO

heat

16

CHARACTERISTICS OF ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES

Source: TDEM17

HV/PHVs

Short-distance commuter vehicles

Travel distance

Fuel Electricity Gasoline, diesel, biofuels, CNG, synthetic fuels, etc. Hydrogen

Home deliveryvehicles

EVs

HVs

PHVs

FC buses

FCVs

Ve

hic

le s

ize

Passenger carsRoute buses

Personal mobility

EVsFCVs

Home delivery trucks

Full-size trucks

Route buses(Public Transportation)

Energy source of vehicle will be diversified depended on applicable usage conditions.

HV & PHV: Wide-use / EV: Short-distance/ FCV: Medium-to-long distance

TOYOTA TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Relevant Fuel based on Vehicle Size x Travel Distance

18

DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT GENERATION VEHICLES

We will continue launching more HVs while accelerating development

of next-generation vehicle technology

Source:

Toyota Motor Corporation 19

ICE >> BEV (PART COMPONENTS)

Part suppliers would have impact

from changing ICE to BEV

Gasoline vehicle

All-Electronic vehicle

ICE

(3,000 parts)

BEV

-5%

20

Assemblers(Car 18 companies)

2nd & 3rd Tier Supplier(1,137 companies)

TH Auto Industry

8%

Thai GDPManufacturing

Source:

Thai Automotive Institute

Otherssectors

1st Tier Supplier(462 companies)

100,000 employees

250,000 employees

175,000 employees

THAI AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY AND CONTRIBUTION IN GDP

Contr

ibute

21

Source:

Toyota Motor Corporation

HISTORY OF BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS

22

ALL SOLID STATE BATTERY

Source:


BATTERY PRICE TREND

The volume weighted

average battery pack fell 85%

from 2010-2018, reaching

an avg. of $176/kWh

Every doubling of cumulative

volume, 18% reduction in price

and the price of an average

battery pack to be $94/kWh by

2024 and $62/kWh by 2030



TOYOTA’S CORE COMPONENTS

Core components enable the development of various

electrified vehicles (HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCEV)

Source:


SUMMARY

Readiness of Electrified Vehicle in Thailand depends on following key factors:

Charging station◦ Currently, located mainly in BKK

◦ About 1,200 stations are operating with low usage

Infrastructure◦ Electrical design and installation

◦ Charging standards

◦ Safety standards

◦ EV Load

Battery Technology◦ Cost x Driving distance

Fuel/Alternative fuel price◦ Fuel price vs. Electricity cost

26

HYBRID VEHICLE

27

BEV MOVEMENT

The C-HR and IZOA will be the first BEVs to launch in China under Toyota brand sales on the new models are slated to start from 2020.

28

TOYOTA BEV:

Source:


BEV MOVEMENT

TOYOTA Future BEV:

29

FT-EV I

Compact electric vehicle

2009 North American International Auto Show

FT-EV II


The 42nd Tokyo Motor Show 2011

Source:


BEV MOVEMENT

TOYOTA Future BEV:

30

Toyota i-ROAD

Ultra-compact, two-seater electric vehicle

The 83rd Geneva International Motor Show

FT-EV III


The 42nd Tokyo Motor Show 2011

Source:


BEV MOVEMENT

TOYOTA Future BEV:

31

Toyota i-TRIL Concept Car

Small, agile, and urban-friendly vehicles

Geneva International Motor Show 2017

Toyota Concept-i

Making the future of mobility tangible

2017 International CES

Source:


BEV MOVEMENT

TOYOTA Future BEV:

32

Toyota Concept-i RIDE

Universal compact mobility vehicle

The 45th Tokyo Motor Show 2017

Toyota Concept-i WALK

Walking area mobility vehicle

The 45th Tokyo Motor Show 2017

Source:


BEV MOVEMENT

33

Source:


TOYOTA Active rollout of BEVs:

BEV MOVEMENT

34

BEVs Sale in Thailand 2019:

FCV MOVEMENT

Sale volume of FCV (as of Sep 2018):

35

Total : 7,200 units

Japan: 2,620 units

(launched in Dec`14)

USA: 4,200 units

(launched in Oct`15)

Europe: 350 units (launched in Sep`15)

Source:


FCV MOVEMENT

36

Source:


FCV MOVEMENT

Current Mirai Price & Incentive:

37

Actual price : ~7 Million JPY

Govt. incentive : ~2 Million JPY

Local govt. incentive*: ~1 Million JPY (Depend on each local govt. policy) *Tokyo

Hydrogen Price

~1,100 Yen/Kg

Source:


FCV VEHICLE

38

Source:


SUMMARY

Future direction of vehicle technology is moving forward to xEV◦ MAAS (Mobility As A Service)

◦ CASE (Connectivity Autonomous Sharing Electrify)

◦ Thailand will be the hub of EV production in ASEAN

BOI Application Submission Status for PHEV & BEV

39

TOYOTA

IMPOSSIBLESTART YOUR

40

ยานยนต์ไฟฟ้า ศักยภาพและ ......•sales 1,041,739 1.05...

Documents