What are the economics impact of child marriage? Early findings from ICRW, World Bank research

A Webinar for Girls Not Brides members and partners

Friday 20 November 2015

Early Findings from the Economic Impacts of Child

Marriage Study

Suzanne Petroni, Ph.D.International Center for Research on Women

Webinar for Girls Not Brides MembershipNovember 20, 2015

Project Partners

Genesis of the Study• Growing body of evidence on child marriage• Greater understanding of the social, health,

human rights costs of the practice• Lack of evidence on the economic impacts Building the evidence on and raising

awareness of child marriage as an economic issue will help generate political will and new investments

Multi-arm (and multi-year) ProjectPhase 1•Develop conceptual framework and analyze existing datasets

Phase 2•Undertake new data collection in three countries

Throughout the project•Disseminate and use of findings, along with building of capacity to use data to inform policies and programs

Phase 1• Examining and testing pathways through which

child marriage may influence economic and social outcomes at the household and national levels.

• Analyses of data from of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), other surveys, and national censuses

• Secondary analysis extremely valuable, but can only go so far

Country Level Work in Phase 1• Profile and trends in child marriage; • Geography of child marriage, using census

data; • Patterns of child marriage and local

development; • Impact of child marriage on fertility; • Impact of child marriage on population

growth; • Welfare costs for household of child marriage

through population growth; • Profile and trends in early childbirth); • Impact of early childbirth on under five

malnutrition;• Impact of early childbirth on under five

mortality; • Impact of early childbirth on maternal health;• Impact of child marriage on educational

attainment;• Child marriage as a reason for dropping out

of school;

• Impact of child marriage on labor force participation;

• Impact of child marriage on women’s earnings; • Impact of child marriage on decision-making

within the household;• Impact of child marriage on contraceptive use; • Impact of child marriage on intimate partner

violence; • Impact of child marriage on public spending for

education; • Impact of child marriage on public spending for

health; • Legal and institutional aspects of child

marriage; • Household perceptions regarding gender roles

and child marriage; • Child marriage and private spending for

education; • Child marriage and private spending for health;

and • Typology of programs for adolescent girls.

Preliminary Findings: Fertility and Population Growth

• Women who marry early tend to have children earlier, and also more children

• In Nigeria, child brides have 1.4 more children on average than women who marry after 18– Eliminating child marriage reduction in TFR by

about 10 percent (2013)

• Eradicating child marriage could reduce the number of births women have by 0.9 to 1.5 over lifetime

Preliminary Findings: Fertility and Population Growth

• Smaller family sizes Increased per capita income at the household level National budgets, particularly in fast growing countries, would face

less stress

• In Niger, annual population growth rates could be reduced by 1/3 point if child marriage eliminated

• By 2030, total population of Niger could be reduced by two million

Significant outcomes for the population's standard of living and quality of public services

Preliminary Findings:Health (Child Mortality/Malnutrition)• Even in countries with high child marriage rates, only

5 – 7% of children are born to mothers under 18.

• Contribution of child marriage to national under-five mortality and malnutrition is small.

For every 100 U-5 children who die or are malnourished, only a handful died or have been malnourished due directly to the impact of child marriage.

• In sub-Saharan Africa, each year of early marriage reduces the probability of secondary school completion by about four percentage points.

• Impacts larger in many countries in the region, and LAC and South Asia.

• Less data on the impact of child marriage on learning, which (for economic purposes) may matter more than attainment.

Preliminary Findings:Educational Attainment

• Child marriage leads to both a higher number of children in the household and lower educational attainment, both of which may reduce labor force participation.

• Child brides’ mobility may be restricted, so ability to work outside of the home may be limited.

Preliminary Findings:Labor Force Participation

Preliminary Findings:Labor Force Participation

• But child marriage also associated with poverty, and many poor girls and women may have to work for household to survive.

• Depending on context, CM may lead labor force participation to increase or decrease.

• By reducing educational attainment, child marriage associated with diminished earnings, as well as reduced likelihood of formal employment.

Preliminary Findings:Aggregate Costs

So far, have considered: •Welfare cost of child marriage for households, through larger family size and population growth•Earnings losses attributed to child marriage, due to the combined effects on labor force participation and earnings•Budget savings that could be achieved in terms of government provision of basic services (mainly through reduced population growth)

Preliminary Findings:Aggregate Costs

• For Niger, increase in gross national income (GNI) from ending child marriage could be up to 5.7% of GNI in 2030, or more than half of annual net ODA flows.

• Up to US $19 billion between 2014 and 2030. – Benefits would accrue principally to the poor.

• Gains in terms of earnings for women could reach US $6 billion between 2014 and 2030.

Preliminary Findings:Aggregate Savings

• Potentially tremendous savings for public budgets due to smaller populations.

• The cost of achieving universal secondary education, for example, could be reduced by about 6% between now and 2030.

• Using UNESCO’s estimated cost for Niger to achieve this target, ending child marriage immediately could generate savings of US $1.8 billion from today to 2030.

• Use existing data to estimate costs for:– Other aspects of health– Violence– Participation and decision-making

• Undertake new data collection

Much more work to do…

Next Steps:Phase 2

• New data collection for three countries • Help validate and test the various pathways

and preliminary cost estimates suggested in first phase

• Provide deeper understanding of pathways encountered by women over life course

• Develop detailed country case studies• Niger, Ethiopia and 3rd country TBC

Next Steps:Advocacy and Capacity Building

• Utilize findings to:– Inform policymakers at global level (World Bank,

UN agencies, donors)– Inform national level policy makers– Support efforts of civil society organizations,

advocates, grassroots activists to use evidence for change

For more information, visit www.costsofchildmarriage.org