A Tipping Point In Advanced Vehicles?

The Chinese Didn’t Seem To Get The Memo, and Comments On Advanced Battery Hot-Button Issues

June 27, 2009 Silver City, NM, USA

Prepared By:

Josh Landess

Owner-Founder: First Energy Research LLC

Partner: WilderHill New Energy Finance

Josh@FirstEnergyResearch.com

520-281-5760

Event Details:

Viva Verde Expo 2009

Saturday, Jun 27, 2009

2:00-3:00 PM

Meeting Room A-B

Global Resource Center Auditorium, WNMU Campus

Framing of Discussion

• Safety• Overall Transportation System, not just vehicles • Recent Policies & Manufacturer Announced Intentions Have

Become A Zoo• 1 Or 2 More Years?• Increasingly Fast Pace Of Change (Compare Biofuels, Solar

Energy?• Disclaimers-------------------

The Problems (Quick Global & US Energy Perspective)Partial Solution: Plug-In Vehicles

(About 20-25 kWh Per Day, About 7.2 kWh From Solar)

(About 33 kWh is expended in one IC engine round-trip to Walmart)

Our Personal Transportation Equations

World Primary Energy Supply*

1973 2006

Total 6,115 MTOE 11,741 MTOE

Oil 46.1% 34.4%

Coal/Peat 24.5% 26.0%

Gas 16.0% 20.5%

Combustible Renewables & Waste 10.6% 10.1%

Nuclear 0.9% 6.2%

Hydro 1.8% 2.2%

Other 0.1% 0.6%Source:IEAhttp://iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1199Data: Notes:* Data “Excludes Electricity Trade”1 MTOE = 4.1868 x 10 Petajoules11,741 MTOE = 489.364 Exajoules (10 to the 18 power joules)US 2005 Supply & Consumption per IEA = 2340 Mtoe = about 20.5% of world.

Global Oil Business

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Iran/Oil.html

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=50&pid=53&aid=1

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=54&aid=2

Country

Russia

Millions Of

Barrels Per day

9.80

Saudi Arabia 9.52

United States 8.84

Iran 4.09

China 3.90

Canada 3.36

Mexico 3.05

United Arab Emirates 2.78

Brazil 2.60

Norway 2.54

Country

United States

Millions Of Barrels Per

Day

20.68

China 7.56

Japan 5.00

Russia 2.82

India 2.80

Germany 2.45

Brazil 2.40

Canada 2.36

Korea, South 2.21

Saudi Arabia 2.21

Production Top 10 March 2009

Consumption Top 10 2007

US & Global Oil Consumption

US Global Percent

2004: 20.73 (mbpd) 82.41 25.16%

2005: 20.80 (mbpd) 84.0024.76%

2006: 20.69 (mbpd) 84.9824.34%

2007: 20.68 (mbpd) 86.8224.08%

2008: 19.42 (mbpd) 85.43 22.73%

source: EIAhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t21.xls

US Energy Perspective, EIA.doe.gov

USA 2007

Petroleum: 39.8% of US Energy UseIn the US (but not in other countries) 70% of Petroleum is used for Transportation

Transportation: About 29% of US Energy use96% from Petroleum2% from Natural Gas2% from Renewables

(source: EIA)http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/pecss_diagram.html

Source: PEWClimate.ORG

http://www.pewclimate.org/technology/overview/transportation

(+Motivations: Global Security, Economy, Environment)

Percentages of global equity investment, February 13, 2009

By Sector

Wind 30.63%

Solar 30.57%

Energy Efficiency 12.89%

Biofuels* & Biomass 12.21%

Renewables – Other 6.49%

Power Storage 4.79%

Energy Conversion 2.42%

By Region Of Listing

EMEA 49.72%

AMER 29.88%

[AMER-USA 28.02%]

ASOC 20.39%

Source: First Energy Research LLC, New Energy Finance

February 13, 2009 Market Capitalizations of more than 400 non-OTC equities in New Energy, weighted for exposure to New Energy

Plug-In Highway-Capable Solutions

Searching For What Is Already FoundSampling Of Some Vehicle High-Efficiency Numbers (Pump Or Grid To Wheel)

Vehicle Type Miles Per Megajoule

Miles Per kWh

MPG (Gasoline), or Equivalent

Data Source Notes

Genuinely widely available to US consumers

2008 Vectrix (2-Wheeler, 62 mph)

Plug-In (NiMH) 2.84 10.22* 340 * Calculated From Manufacturer Battery and Range Data. Probably Optimistic

Yes

Electric Light Intra-city Rail [under “typical” passenger load]

[Grid] [1.67] [6.01] [200 passenger-mpg]

*strickland.ca under “typical” passenger load. These numbers should be treated as very general estimates.

[Yes]

2009 BMW Mini-E Plug-In (Lithium Ion) 1.50 5.40* 179.63 * Manufacturer Claim, Probably Optimistic

No

1997 EV1 Plug-In (Panasonic Advanced Lead-Acid Version)

0.99 3.58* 119.09 * Compiled From A Government Testing Report

No

2009 Tesla Plug-In (Lithium Ion) 0.99 3.57* 118.76 * Manufacturer Statement Of Government Estimate

Yes (but expensive).

2002 Toyota RAV4 EV

Plug-In (NiMH) 0.94 3.37 112* * fueleconomy.gov No

2005 Prius PHEV Effort

Plug-In Hybrid

(Gasoline/Lithium Ion)

0.71 2.56 85. 21* ** 3rd party Conservative Estimate

Very Limited

2009 Honda Clarity FCX

Hydrogen Fuel Cell 0.62 2.22 74* * Manufacturer Claim No

2002 Toyota RAV4 Gasoline 4 Cyl 2WD 5-Speed

Internal Combustion 0.20 0.72 24* * fueleconomy.gov Yes

Table: First Energy Research LLC. Approximations: 1 gallon gasoline = 113,500 BTU = 33.26 kWh = 119.75 MJ

Renewable Energy Harvesting + Millions Of Plug-In Vehicles = Symbiosis= Demand Destruction For Oil

Plug-In Vehicles

This is what happened to GM’s 100+ MPGE EV1.

It was never offered readily and widely for sale to consumers (or anyone else) … anywhere… ever.

Newer Possibilities, Out Of The Ashes

All Of These Leading EVs “Decided” To Skip NiMH Batteries

Photo Source: Vehicle Manufacturers, Wikipedia

The Best (Or Even Very Good) Technology Does Not Always Win

EV Drivetrain & Vehicle Companies (and 1 fuel cell company) over 2 Years

Some Global Automakers, over 5 years (note China and Hong Kong stocks doing best, then Japan, then US and Europe)

Some More Global Automakers, over 5 years (led by VW, Dongfeng, Avichina and Daihatsu)

Advanced Battery Investments

Source: First Energy Research LLC, Thomson ONE Equity

Selected 60+ MPH EV Company CommentsJune, 2009, applying levels of our layman’s nonsense-detectors

(note: New Plug In America Vehicle Tracker as a major source of information)

China & Hong Kong Headquarters:BYD Auto (China 2008 Intro, US 2011?)Chery Automobile (73.2 mph) Prototype 2009, Iron PhosphateHafei Saibao (Miles, CODA) Fall 2010

Japan Headquarters:Mitsubishi i-MEV (note Meiden)Subaru (note Fuji, Batteries)NissanHonda? (Nothing?)Toyota (PHEV, but lame schedule, & where are the EVs?)Shin-Kobe Electric Machinery

India & Other Headquarters:Tata (+ Miljo)RevaProton (Malaysia: Lotus, Detroit Electric)

North America Headquarters:AC PropulsionChrysler (various: big wildcard, question-mark, journalists covering them over the years?)FiskerFord Transit Connect (w/Smith in US)Ford-Magna (promising)GM VoltPenske (Saturn)TangoTeslaZenn (higher skepticism)

Europe Headquarters:BMW Mini-EDaimler (Smart Car)Elbil Norge Kewet Buddy (claiming NiMH and Lithium Options for end of 2009?)Heuliez (Michelin)Renault (ACP Connection)Smith (Ford Europe Chassis)Think (Enova) (financing a significant recent event)VW PHEV (lame schedule, but good IC cars)

More EV Companies

Selected Lithium (Mostly) Battery Company Comments

Country Battery Company Vehicle Company

China BYD - BYDGP (Gold Peak), Hunan Corun Vectrix, Others?Lishen (LiPO4?!) - CODA/Miles/Hafei Saibao China BAK

Taiwan E-Moli - ?Japan Panasonic Toyota

NEC NIssanHitachi GMGS Yuasa MitsubishiHitachi Maxell Subaru (Fuji Heavy)Sanyo Maybe Honda ?Toshiba VW (cancelled?)

Korea LG Chem/Compact Power Subsidiary GMNorth America & Europe

JCS (JCI/SAFT Joint Venture) - ChyrslerA123 - Continental AG Collaboration – Think, others, GM Valence - Tanfield, OthersEnerdel – Think Global ASLithium Technology Corporation ?Altair - Phoenix (Bankrupt) Electrovaya - Miljobil Grenland

Selected Motors-Powertrain and Charger Company Comments

- Selected Outside-the-box company comments

Car-sharing, U-HaulPorts: Infratel

-Learning Lessons From Bankruptcies, Selected Company Comments

- BAAT, ZAP, ELSI,

- GGGO, HIPC, other relief cases.

- Vectrix? Tanfield, Think? GM?

Chicken & Egg EV Issues

About 2 More Years ?

There has never been widely for sale a highway-capable affordable vehicle that did not use fossil fuels, with the partial exception of biofuel vehicles. (Therefore) Nobody knows for absolute certain if there is demand for plug-ins.

The Big Lie(s) & Strangeness of the Global Auto Industry.

Arguing “Capitalism” and Anthropology.

EVs were part of early 20th century.

FCEVs were used as a distraction.

Poor Coverage By Press & Totally unworthy policy-making up to now.

Plug-Ins are simply good cars, even with efficiency arguments aside.

In a way, going forward, it is possible this blockade will continue.

Overseas Hopes: Did the Chinese Get The Memo?

Concluding Thoughts, … Policy, Business & Summary Comments

Some Engineers didn’t like ZEV.

Need Gas Tax no matter how you slice it?

BMW-ZEV: all for the credits?.

Chinese not getting the memo, most of the rest seem to be playing a very dangerous game.

Anthropology

Overcoming “the” answers

Overcoming Wall Street or Anti-Innovative Dogmatism against sustainability concepts.