A time for choice: stewardship of the Garden Route

Christo Fabricius

Uncertain times

Complex systems

• Social, political, economic, technological, ecological

Unpredictability

• “wild cards”

• “episodic events”

• Shocks, surprise

Non-linear change

• The past is not a good predictor of the future

• Trends and extrapolation not very useful

“Regime shifts”

A large, abrupt change in the way a

system functions

Lasting impacts on productivity

Slow and fast factors

Time

Ca

pa

cit

y /

Lo

st

ec

os

ys

tem

se

rvic

es

Institutional capacity Ecosystem services

Making peace with uncertainty

• Think short and long term

• See the over-all picture

• Question the future

• Consider implications of policy decisions

• Experiment, monitor, learn

Considering multiple possible futures

Asking the right questions

Which factors are beyond the Garden

Route’s control?

• Political

• Ecological

• Economic

• Social

• Technological

Which factors are important for our

future?

• Political

• Ecological

• Economic

• Social

• Technological

Planning under uncertain conditions

Uncontrollable factors

• Fires

• Floods

• Droughts

• USA

• Eurozone

• China

• Policies

• Vision 2030

• Capacity

• Immigration Population

Controllable factors

• Ecological infrastructure

• Biodiversity

• Invasive alien plants

Ecosystem management

• Implementation

• Responsiveness

• Debt vs investment

Local Economic Development

• Capacity development

• Skills

• Education

Local

policies, strategies and

practices

• Technology:

• Green economy

• Affordable infrastructure

Private sector investment

Outside forces

Shocks and surprises

Vulnerability

Resilience

People’s choices

The future isn’t what it used to be..

• Pockets of excellence

• Innovation

• Hard times for all

• “New balls please”

• Premier league

• Anarchy

• Failed state

• OR

• “second division”

Eish (we missed

the bus)

Carpe diem

Local is lekker

Maveric’s paradise

Glo

bal

eco

no

mic

rec

ove

ry

Implementation of Vision 2030 Ignored Prioritized

What to do?

hedging our bets..

Ecosystem management

• Repair ecological infrastructure • Coastal fore-dunes

• Riverbanks

• Wetlands

• Indigenous forests

• Manage threats NOW • Invasive plants

• Land transformation

• Partnerships; imaginative proposals; innovation funding

Local Economic Development

Implementation of the PACA results

• Project management skills Capacity development

• Existing unproductive expenditure and commitments

• Be prepared to dump some projects

• But pride and egos? Carefully assess priorities

• Many have spoken about it - heed the calls

• Align development priorities

The Garden Route as a “knowledge and education

hub” in South Africa

Local policy reform Accountability

of local political representatives

Assess impact of bureaucracy

Reduce where possible and

feasible

Cooperation and

‘stewardship’

restore trust and credibility

Close the wealth gap and promote unity

Plans and incentives

Align IDPs with economic

development priorities

Think outside the box with the

IDP process

Can existing budgets be spent more

strategically?

Private sector investment

• Barriers & bridges Strategic

assessment

• Match-makers, facilitators

• Project management skills Capacity to form

partnerships

• Innovators, regulators and implementers

Strategic alliances

Conclusions

• Choices: the Garden Route is staring over a cliff

• We are probably the last generation who can pre-empt and manage a tipping point

• Yes, we are accountable

• Stewardship: holding ourselves accountable for the choices we make now